scholarly journals Relative Deprivation as a Factor of Sociopolitical Destabilization: Toward a Quantitative Comparative Analysis of the Arab Spring Events

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 296-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey V. Korotayev ◽  
Alisa R. Shishkina

The article analyzes relative deprivation as a possible factor of sociopolitical instability during the Arab Spring events using the methods of correlation and multiple regression analysis. In this case, relative deprivation is operationalized in two ways: (a) through the indicator of subjective feeling of happiness on the eve of the events of the Arab Spring, and (b) through the scale of decrease of the subjective feeling of happiness on the eve of the events of Arab Spring. It is shown that the change in the level of subjective feeling of happiness between 2009 and 2010 is a powerful, statistically significant predictor of the level of destabilization in Arab countries in 2011. The next most powerful predictor is the mean value of the subjective feeling of happiness in the corresponding country for 2010. At the same time, the fundamental economic indicators we tested, while controlling for them, have turned out to be extremely weak and at the same time statistically insignificant predictors of the level of sociopolitical instability in the Arab countries in 2011.

Author(s):  
L. Fituni

The author presents his own original conception of the 2011 Arab upheavals. First, he tries to find parallels between the Arab Spring and the 19th century European Spring of Peoples. Second, he dwells on the idea of three types of transition in the Arab World: economic, demographic, and ideological. Third, he reflects on the issues of democracy and autocracy in the Arab countries emphasizing the role of youth. Fourth, he puts forward some new ideas as regards the relationship between Europe and the Arab World, offering such terms as “democratic internationalism” and “young democratic safety belt” in the Mediterranean region.


Author(s):  
Derek Lutterbeck

Coup-proofing—that is, measures aimed at preventing military coups and ensuring military loyalty—has been a key feature of civil–military relations in Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) states. Just as the MENA region has been one of the most coup-prone regions in the world, coup-proofing has been an essential instrument of regime survival in Arab countries. The most commonly found coup-proofing strategies in the region include (a) so-called “communal coup-proofing,” involving the appointment of individuals to key positions within the military based on family, ethnic, or religious ties; (b) providing the military with corporate and/or private benefits in order to ensure its loyalty; (c) creating parallel military forces in addition to the regular military, so as to “counter-balance” the latter; (d) monitoring of the military through a vast internal security and intelligence apparatus; and (e) promoting professionalism, and thus political neutrality, within the military. The experiences of the “Arab Spring,” however, have shown that not all of these strategies are equally effective in ensuring military loyalty during times of popular upheavals and regime crises. A common finding in this context has been that communal coup-proofing (or militaries based on “patrimonialism”) creates the strongest bonds been the armed forces and their regimes, as evidenced by the forceful suppression of the popular uprising by the military in countries such as Syria, or by parts of the military in Libya and Yemen. By contrast, where coup-proofing has been based on the provision of material benefits to the military or on counterbalancing, as in Tunisia or Egypt, the armed forces have refrained from suppressing the popular uprising, ultimately leading to the downfall of these countries’ long-standing leaders. A further lesson that can be drawn from the Arab Spring in terms of coup-proofing is that students of both military coups and coup-proofing should dedicate (much) more attention to the increasingly important role played by the internal security apparatus in MENA countries.


Author(s):  
Engin Sorhun

Although Turkey has historically concentrated its trade with the European Union (EU) it has diversified its trade markets with the neighbouring regions and different group of countries during the last decade. Among them, Arab countries have come into prominence. Especially, following the “zero problems with neighbours” policy (ZPN), pursued by Turkey since 2002, the trade volume with the Middle Eastern neighbours has increased faster than that with its traditional partners. Nevertheless so called “Arab Spring” has started to manifest its effects on this trend. It deteriorates not only the economies of the concerned countries but also Turkey’s trade expansion. This paper aims: (i) to test through a gravity model the positive impacts of the ZPN policy and the negative impact of the Arab Spring on the trade expansion with the Spring Countries; and (ii) to reveal the positive impact of the policy change and the negative impact of the uprising movements on the realization of trade potential by Turkey in the Spring Countries.


2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-101
Author(s):  
Nazar Ul Islam Wani

The Arab Spring was a series of protests which took place in Arab countries against longstanding dictatorial regimes, because of the latter’s inability or refusal to deliver socio-economic and political justice to the common 99 masses. Protests spread like fire and made an impact not only on the governance of the Arab world but also internationally, by involving big players like Russia and the United States of America. Yet these events were intensely complicated, with multiple actors and layers of history involved in each country. The book under review here is one prodigious effort to understand the Arab Spring, considering causes and effects of the uprisings. Structurally, the book is divided into two parts. The first part, consisting of seven chapters, deals with the uprisings in Arab countries; part two, consisting of six chapters, discusses the impact of the Arab Spring on the non-Arab world and their core interests related to the uprisings. 


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-147
Author(s):  
Ahmad Sahide ◽  
Rezki Satris

The Arab Spring in 2011 opened the way for democratization in some Arab countries, including Egypt. Egypt succeeded in overthrowing Hosni Mubarak as the president, but Egypt failed in consolidating democracy after holding a general election in 2012. The main factors of the failure in consolidating democracy in Egypt come from internal and external factors. The internal factor was that Egypt had not been ready for democracy , whereas the external factor was  foreign intervention due to national interest. This article analyzes the failure of democratization in Egypt by using Jack Snyder and Georg Sorensen’s theory. In the last part of this article, the writer suggested that Egypt should have learned how to consolidate democracy from Indonesia. Indonesia is the best model of democracy for Egypt due to some reasons. The first one is Indonesia and Egypt near a culturally (religious approach), and the second one is Indonesia's success, as the majority Muslim state, in consolidating democracy since 1998.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adnan Abdulrahman Naef Farhan ◽  
P.A. Varghese

The Arab Spring is a popular term used to describe the revolutionary movement of demonstrations and protests, and civil wars in the Arab world that began on December 18, 2010 in Tunisia and spread in the whole Arab countries. Tunisia and Egypt became the center of this revolution, and then it moved to include Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria, Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Sudan, Mauritania, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Western Sahara and Palestine. Yemeni youth’s revolution movement began to change the system through mobilization of people and social action. This paper focuses on the importance of Facebook in the revolution and how the Yemeni youth used Facebook to attract more supporters and keep the spirit up. The present paper reports the impact of Facebook in nurturing political revolution in Yemen analyzing the data achieved by survey method.Int. J. Soc. Sc. Manage. Vol. 5, Issue-1: 5-9


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 3-19
Author(s):  
Boubaker Boukreisa

Many researchers who believed in the “Arab Spring” are now debating the “Arab Autumn.” The two concepts are misleading because they reflect the entangled and complex reality of Arab countries at the current time. Such significant events that comprised the Arab Spring require knowledge of the influence of countries that were not directly involved in it, but which were pursuing their interests beyond their own borders. An attempt to engage with this sort of analytical framework leads to political fallacy that will contribute more to the crisis rather than solve it. Thus, it is important to understand that those who fight tyranny are not necessarily democratic themselves. What is the state of play in the Arab world today? At what stage of history is this region positioned? To answer both questions a lateral approach is needed, but this should not overlook the size of cases and their different levels.


1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-203
Author(s):  
David E. Kenyon ◽  
Steven E. Kingsley

The use of the futures market as an aid in marketing farm commodities has been gaining in popularity among producers. Current hedging practices are largely based on average basis or basis movement over some historical time period. The difficulty with this approach is that the year to year variation in the calculated basis is large and using the mean value to predict basis in a given year does not give a highly accurate estimate. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine if regression analysis could be used to accurately predict the harvest basis at planting time, and (2) to evaluate the performance of alternative hedging strategies using historical average basis estimates versus basis estimates based on regression analysis.


2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelilah Belkeziz

This article, originally delivered in the Fall of 2011 at a seminar held in Beirut at the Centre for Arab Unity Studies, examines the 2011 amendments to the Moroccan Constitution in light of the historical background. The tumultuous events of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’ brought new urgency to the issue of constitutional reforms that had been broached initially on the accession of Muhammad VI to the throne in 1999. Since independence, Moroccan political society has typically been vibrant, democratic and home to numerous political parties of various orientations and, since the 1970s, has witnessed calls by various sides for constitutional reforms as well as for the institution of a constitutional or parliamentary monarchy. On 9 March 2011 Muhammad VI gave a momentous address subjecting the issue of royal authority to public deliberations. This topic had previously ranked as one of the few unapproachable taboos of the political scene. A vital driving force in the process of constitutional reform has been the youthful February 20 Movement that was instrumental in the mobilization of millions of Moroccans and led to submitting the new draft Constitution to popular referendum and its ratification on 1 July 2011. Unlike other Arab countries, Morocco's functioning democracy, its well-established political parties and the fact that the issue of constitutional reforms had already been on the table meant that when Moroccans descended into the streets they had a set of clearly defined demands – demands that were also less drastic than those being made in other countries. Yet while Moroccan politics have been highly developed and articulate since the 1940s, the events of the Arab Spring provided the necessary shock and catalyst to transform relative complacency into action. The dense topography of mature political parties and organizations in Morocco factored in two ways: first, it permitted a stable environment for democratic transition, which was not new as a concept; and in a somewhat less positive regard, the compromises and concessions to numerous sides dictated by Moroccan political pluralism led – in the drafting of the amended Constitution – to a document of somewhat indistinct character. The King's authority, in particular, is not so limited as a contemporary parliamentary monarchy and he retains a distinct set of powers, particularly under the aegis of his role as ‘Commander of the Faithful’ (Amir al-Mu'minin). Nevertheless, there have been significant changes and this article examines the nature of these, their genesis and links to various political trends and parties. The uniqueness of the Moroccan model is demonstrated, though other Arab countries, notably Jordan, may follow a similar path.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 11
Author(s):  
NI MADE SEKARMINI ◽  
I KOMANG GDE SUKARSA ◽  
I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI

One method of regression analysis used to analyze the count data is Poisson regression. Poisson regression requires that the mean value equal to the value of variance (equidispersion). However, sometimes the data is going overdispersion  the state variance values ??greater than the mean value. One of the causes overdispersion is the excessive number of zero values ??on the response variable (excess zeros). One method of analysis that can be used on data that had overdispersion due to excess zeros is regression Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB). The data that can be analyzed using the ZINB regression is the early childhood mortality in the province of Bali because much of the data is zero. The analysis showed that the data had overdispersion on Poisson regression, so the ZINB regression analysis was used. From the results of the ZINB regression can overcome overdispersion so it was better than the Poisson Regression Model.


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