The Association Between Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Matter and Incidence of Hypertension Among Chinese Elderly: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Objectives: Studies that investigate the links between particulate matter ≤2. 5 μm (PM2.5) and hypertension among the elderly population, especially those including aged over 80 years, are limited. Therefore, we aimed to examine the association between PM2.5 exposure and the risk of hypertension incidence among Chinese elderly.Methods: This prospective cohort study used 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018 wave data from a public database, the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, a national survey investigating the health of those aged over 65 years in China. We enrolled cohort participants who were free of hypertension at baseline (2008) from 706 counties (districts) and followed up in the 2011, 2014, and 2018 survey waves. The annual PM2.5 concentration of 706 counties (districts) units was derived from the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group database as the exposure variable, and exposure to PM2.5 was defined as 1-year average of PM2.5 concentration before hypertension event occurrence or last interview (only for censoring). A Cox proportional hazards model with penalized spline was used to examine the non-linear association between PM2.5 concentration and hypertension risk. A random-effects Cox proportional hazards model was built to explore the relationship between each 1 μg/m3, 10 μg/m3 and quartile increment in PM2.5 concentration and hypertension incidence after adjusting for confounding variables. The modification effects of the different characteristics of the respondents were also explored.Results: A total of 7,432 participants aged 65–116 years were enrolled at baseline. The median of PM2.5 exposure concentration of all the participants was 52.7 (inter-quartile range, IQR = 29.1) μg/m3. Overall, the non-linear association between PM2.5 and hypertension incidence risk indicated that there was no safe threshold for PM2.5 exposure. The higher PM2.5 exposure, the greater risk for hypertension incidence. Each 1 μg/m3 [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02] and 10 μg/m3 (AHR: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.09–1.16) increments in PM2.5, were associated with the incidence of hypertension after adjusting for potential confounding variables. Compared to first quartile (Q1) exposure, the adjusted HRs of hypertension incidence for the Q2, Q3 and Q4 exposure of PM2.5 were 1.31 (95% CI: 1.13–1.51), 1.35 (95% CI: 1.15–1.60), and 1.83 (95% CI: 1.53–2.17), respectively. The effects appear to be stronger among those without a pension, living in a rural setting, and located in central/western regions.Conclusion: We found no safe threshold for PM2.5 exposure related to hypertension risk, and more rigorous approaches for PM2.5 control were needed. The elderly without a pension, living in rural and setting in the central/western regions may be more vulnerable to the effects of PM2.5 exposure.

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Dementia Adjudication Triggers Associated With Increased Mortality for Older Australians: Evidence From ASPREE

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igaa057.523 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 161-161

Author(s):

Jane Banaszak-Holl ◽

Xiaoping Lin ◽

Jing Xie ◽

Stephanie Ward ◽

Henry Brodaty ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

The Elderly ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Service Planning ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cognitive Test ◽

Risk Of Death ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Using Data

Abstract Research Aims: This study seeks to understand whether those with dementia experience higher risk of death, using data from the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) clinical trial study. Methods: ASPREE was a primary intervention trial of low-dose aspirin among healthy older people. The Australian cohort included 16,703 dementia-free participants aged 70 years and over at enrolment. Participants were triggered for dementia adjudication if cognitive test results were poorer than expected, self-reporting dementia diagnosis or memory problems, or dementia medications were detected. Incidental dementia was adjudicated by an international adjudication committee using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) criteria and results of a neuropsychological battery and functional measures with medical record substantiation. Statistical analyses used a cox proportional hazards model. Results: As previously reported, 1052 participants (5.5%) died during a median of 4.7 years of follow-up and 964 participants had a dementia trigger, of whom, 575 (60%) were adjucated as having dementia. Preliminary analyses has shown that the mortality rate was higher among participants with a dementia trigger, regardless of dementia adjudication outcome, than those without (15% vs 5%, Χ2 = 205, p <.001). Conclusion: This study will provide important analyses of differences in the hazard ratio for mortality and causes of death among people with and without cognitive impairment and has important implications on service planning.

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Abstract P390: Relationship between BMI and Risk of Hypertension in an urban Japanese cohort study: the Suita study

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.129.suppl_1.p390 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Michikazu Nakai ◽

Makoto Watanabe ◽

Kunihiro Nishimura ◽

Misa Takegami ◽

Yoshihiro Kokubo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Population Based ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Men And Women ◽

Japanese Cohort ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Increased Risk

Objective: The positive relation between body mass index (BMI) and risk of incident hypertension (HT) has been reported mainly in the Western subjects with high BMI. However, there are a few reports in the Asian with relatively lower BMI. This study investigated the relation of BMI with risk of incident HT in the population-based prospective cohort study of Japan, the Suita study. Methods: Participants who had no HT at baseline (1,591 men and 1,973 women) aged 30-84 years were included in this study. BMI categories were defined as following: underweight (BMI<18.5), normal (18.5≤BMI<25.0), and overweight (BMI ≥ 25.0). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of BMI categories for incident HT by sex. HRs were adjusted for age, cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking. The HRs according to quartiles of BMI were also estimated, using the lowest quartile of BMI as a reference. Results: During median follow-up of 7.2 years, 1,325 participants (640 men and 685 women) developed HT. The HR (95% CI) of 1kg/m2 increment of BMI for HT in men and women was 1.08 (1.05-1.11) and 1.10 (1.07-1.12), respectively. When we set a normal BMI as a reference, HR of overweight BMI in men and women was 1.37 (1.13-1.67) and 1.45 (1.18-1.77), whereas HR of underweight BMI in men and women was 0.63 (0.45-0.90) and 0.60 (0.45-0.80), respectively. In addition, compared to the lowest quartile, HR of the highest quartile of BMI in men and women was 1.67 (1.33-2.10, trend p<0.001) and 2.10 (1.67-2.64, trend p<0.001), respectively. Conclusion: In this study, we showed that higher BMI was associated with increased risk of hypertension in both Japanese men and women.

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Clinical course and risk factors of fatal adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients in Korea: a nationwide retrospective cohort study

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-89548-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Juhyun Song ◽

Dae Won Park ◽

Jae-hyung Cha ◽

Hyeri Seok ◽

Joo Yeong Kim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Cohort Study ◽

Retrospective Cohort ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Adverse Outcomes ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Icu Admission ◽

Hazards Model

AbstractWe investigated association between epidemiological and clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and clinical outcomes in Korea. This nationwide retrospective cohort study included 5621 discharged patients with COVID-19, extracted from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) database. We compared clinical data between survivors (n = 5387) and non-survivors (n = 234). We used logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards model to explore risk factors of death and fatal adverse outcomes. Increased odds ratio (OR) of mortality occurred with age (≥ 60 years) [OR 11.685, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.655–34.150, p < 0.001], isolation period, dyspnoea, altered mentality, diabetes, malignancy, dementia, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The multivariable regression equation including all potential variables predicted mortality (AUC = 0.979, 95% CI 0.964–0.993). Cox proportional hazards model showed increasing hazard ratio (HR) of mortality with dementia (HR 6.376, 95% CI 3.736–10.802, p < 0.001), ICU admission (HR 4.233, 95% CI 2.661–6.734, p < 0.001), age ≥ 60 years (HR 3.530, 95% CI 1.664–7.485, p = 0.001), malignancy (HR 3.054, 95% CI 1.494–6.245, p = 0.002), and dyspnoea (HR 1.823, 95% CI 1.125–2.954, p = 0.015). Presence of dementia, ICU admission, age ≥ 60 years, malignancy, and dyspnoea could help clinicians identify COVID-19 patients with poor prognosis.

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The effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on cognitive decline among long-term care insurance users in Japan: a retrospective cohort study

Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12199-021-01038-9 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Shuhei Yoshida ◽

Saori Kashima ◽

Masatoshi Matsumoto

Keyword(s):

Cognitive Decline ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

The Elderly ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Hazard Ratio ◽

Residential Environment ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Term Care ◽

Hazards Model

Abstract Background The July 2018 Japan Floods caused enormous damage to western Japan. Such disasters can especially impact elderly persons. Research has shown that natural disasters exacerbated a decline in cognitive function, but to date, there have been no studies examining the effects of this disaster on the elderly. The object of this study was to reveal the effect of this disaster in terms of cognitive decline among the elderly. Methods Study participants were certified users of the long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures from May 2018 to June 2018. The observation period was from July 2018 to December 2018. Our primary outcome was cognitive decline after the disaster using a dementia symptomatology assessment. In addition to a crude model, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the cognitive decline of victims, adjusting for age classification, gender, the level of dementia scale before the disaster occurred, residential environment, whether a participant used facilities shut down after the disaster, and population density. After we confirmed that the interaction term between victims and residential environment was statistically significant, we stratified them for the analysis. Results The total number of participants was 264,614. Victims accounted for 1.10% of the total participants (n = 2,908). For the Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the victims was 1.18 (95% confidential interval (CI): 1.05–1.32) in the crude model and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.00–1.26) in the adjusted model. After being stratified by residential environment, the hazard ratio of home victims was 1.20 (95% CI: 1.06–1.36) and the hazard ratio of facility victims was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.67–1.17). Conclusions This study showed that elderly living at home during the 2018 Japan Floods were at risk for cognitive decline. Medical providers, care providers, and local governments should establish a system to check on the cognitive function of elderly victims and provide necessary care support.

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Chemotherapy and Survival in Patients with Primary High-Grade Extremity and Trunk Soft Tissue Sarcoma

Cancers ◽

10.3390/cancers12092389 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 2389

Author(s):

Danielle S. Graham ◽

Ritchell van Dams ◽

Nicholas J. Jackson ◽

Mykola Onyshchenko ◽

Mark A. Eckardt ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Soft Tissue ◽

Soft Tissue Sarcoma ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

High Volume ◽

The Elderly ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Multi Agent

The use of upfront chemotherapy for primary localized soft tissue sarcoma (STS) of the extremity and trunk is debated. It remains unclear if chemotherapy adds clinical benefit, which patients are likely to benefit, and whether the timing of therapy affects outcomes. We used the National Cancer Database (NCDB) to examine the association between overall survival (OS) and chemotherapy in 5436 patients with the five most common subtypes of STS with primary disease localized to the extremity or trunk, mirroring the patient population of a modern phase 3 clinical trial of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We then examined associations between timing of multi-agent chemotherapy (neoadjuvant or adjuvant) and OS. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score matching (PSM) to account for covariates including demographic, patient, clinical, treatment, and facility factors. In the overall cohort, we observed no association between multi-agent chemotherapy or its timing and improved OS. Multi-agent chemotherapy was associated with improved OS in several subgroups, including patients with larger tumors (>5 cm), those treated at high-volume centers, or those who received radiation. We also identified an OS benefit to multi-agent chemotherapy among the elderly (>70 years) and African American patients. Multi-agent chemotherapy was associated with improved survival for patients with tumors >5 cm, who receive radiation, or who receive care at high-volume centers. Neither younger age nor chemotherapy timing was associated with better outcomes. These ‘real-world’ findings align with recent randomized trial data supporting the use of multi-agent chemotherapy in high-risk patients with localized STS.

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Anticoagulants and Antiplatelets in COVID-19: Impact on Survival and Thromboembolism Development

10.1101/2021.07.03.21254541 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Salmon ◽

Mitchell Titley ◽

Zaid Noori ◽

Mark Crosby ◽

Rajiv Sankaranarayanan

Keyword(s):

Significant Relationship ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Confounding Variables ◽

Impact On Survival ◽

The Impact

Background Higher rates of venous and arterial thromboembolism have been noted in coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). There has been limited research on the impact of anticoagulant and antiplatelet choice in COVID-19. Methods This was a single-centre retrospective cohort study of 933 patients with COVID-19 infection presenting between 01/02/2020 and 31/05/2020. Survival time at 90 days post-diagnosis and thromboembolism development were the measured outcomes. Results Of 933 total patients, mean age was 68 years and 54.4% were male. 297 (31.8%) did not survive at 90 days. A Cox proportional hazards model analysis found no statistically significant relationship between anticoagulant or antiplatelet choice and survival (p<0.05). 57 (6.3%) developed thromboembolism. Antiplatelet choice was not shown to have a statistically significant relationship with thromboembolism development. Warfarin and direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) use did not have a statistically significant impact on thromboembolism development (p<0.05). Therapeutic low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) use was associated with increased thromboembolism risk (Odds ratio = 14.327, 95% CI 1.904 - 107.811, p = 0.010). Conclusions Antiplatelet choice was shown to have no impact on survival or thromboembolism development in COVID-19. Anticoagulant choice did not impact survival or thromboembolism development, aside from LMWH. Therapeutic LMWH use was associated with increased risk of thromboembolism. However, it should be noted that the sample size for patients using therapeutic LMWH was small (n=4), and there may be confounding variables affecting both LMWH use and thromboembolism development. These findings should be repeated with a larger sample of patients using therapeutic LMWH with additional adjustment for cofounding variables.

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The Effects of Greenness Exposure on Hypertension Incidence Among Chinese Oldest Old: A 10-Year Prospective Cohort Study

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1139608/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zhou Wensu ◽

Wang Wenjuan ◽

Zhou Fenfen ◽

Chen Wen ◽

Li Ling

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Vegetation Index ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Oldest Old ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Western China ◽

The Third ◽

Hazards Model

Abstract Background Present studies showed greenness affected hypertension incidence. While population-based epidemiologic studies are limited in the oldest-old population (aged 80+). Methods This was a 10-year prospective cohort study that included oldest old (80 years +) from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Participants were free of hypertension at baseline (2008) and were followed up at 2011/2012, 2014, and 2018 waves. The 1-year average of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) at 16-Day 500 m buffer before the year of hypertension event occurrence or last interview (for censoring) was estimated at 652 counties/districts units level of the participants resided and as exposure indicator. The non-linear association between greenness and hypertension incidence was performed by the Cox proportional hazards model with the penalized spline. The links between greenness and hypertension incidence were performed by the random-effects Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for potential confounding variables. We also examined the causal mediation effects of BMI, leisure activity, and PM2.5 on the association between greenness exposure and hypertension. Results Among 5432 participants, the incidence of hypertension was 7.25 (95% CI: 6.83 to 7.67) per 100 person-years. We found a non-liner association existed between greenness exposure and hypertension risk. In the fully adjusted model, the third tertile of NDVI value presenting protective effects on hypertension incidence compared with the first tertile (hazard ratios (HRs): 0.51; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.64). The third tertile of EVI value had a significant protective effect on hypertension incidence, compared with participants in the first tertile (HRs:0.44, 95%CI: 0.34-0.55). The effect of greenness exposure on hypertension was more pronounced in participants living in central/western China. We observed there were 41.63% and 17.01% of the association between NDVI/EVI exposure and hypertension was mediated by PM2.5, respectively. Conclusions Greenness could decrease approximate 50% risk induced by hypertension among oldest-old people, that is, expanding greenness is a recommended approach to hypertension prevention for the them. In particular, implementing plans to expanding green space construction in central/western China is needed. It is also emphasized the the importance of improve air quality when greenness exposure is existing.

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Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders ◽

10.1186/s12872-020-01834-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maryam Farhadian ◽

Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽

Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽

Hossein Mahjub

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Cerebrovascular Events ◽

Long Term Follow Up ◽

Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

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Elevated plasma growth and differentiation factor 15 predicts incident anemia in older adults aged 60 years and older

The Journals of Gerontology Series A ◽

10.1093/gerona/glaa324 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yuko Yamaguchi ◽

Marta Zampino ◽

Toshiko Tanaka ◽

Stefania Bandinelli ◽

Yusuke Osawa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Differentiation Factor ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Increased Risk ◽

The Relationship

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P<.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.

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Evaluation of Changes on World Stock Exchanges in Connection with the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic. Survival Analysis Methods

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9070121 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 121

Author(s):

Beata Bieszk-Stolorz ◽

Krzysztof Dmytrów

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Stock Exchange ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Stock Exchanges ◽

Analysis Methods ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Kaplan Meier

The aim of our research was to compare the intensity of decline and then increase in the value of basic stock indices during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The survival analysis methods used to assess the risk of decline and chance of rise of the indices were: Kaplan–Meier estimator, logit model, and the Cox proportional hazards model. We observed the highest intensity of decline in the European stock exchanges, followed by the American and Asian plus Australian ones (after the fourth and eighth week since the peak). The highest risk of decline was in America, then in Europe, followed by Asia and Australia. The lowest risk was in Africa. The intensity of increase was the highest in the fourth and eleventh week since the minimal value had been reached. The highest odds of increase were in the American stock exchanges, followed by the European and Asian (including Australia and Oceania), and the lowest in the African ones. The odds and intensity of increase in the stock exchange indices varied from continent to continent. The increase was faster than the initial decline.

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