scholarly journals Adapting and validating the log quadratic model to derive under-five age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM): a preliminary analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Perin ◽  
Yue Chu ◽  
Francisco Villaviciencio ◽  
Austin Schumacher ◽  
Tyler McCormick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Approach ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Pattern ◽  
Registration System ◽  
High Functioning ◽  
Under Five ◽  
Sample Registration System ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Health Programming

Abstract Background The mortality pattern from birth to age five is known to vary by underlying cause of mortality, which has been documented in multiple instances. Many countries without high functioning vital registration systems could benefit from estimates of age- and cause-specific mortality to inform health programming, however, to date the causes of under-five death have only been described for broad age categories such as for neonates (0–27 days), infants (0–11 months), and children age 12–59 months. Methods We adapt the log quadratic model to mortality patterns for children under five to all-cause child mortality and then to age- and cause-specific mortality (U5ACSM). We apply these methods to empirical sample registration system mortality data in China from 1996 to 2015. Based on these empirical data, we simulate probabilities of mortality in the case when the true relationships between age and mortality by cause are known. Results We estimate U5ACSM within 0.1–0.7 deaths per 1000 livebirths in hold out strata for life tables constructed from the China sample registration system, representing considerable improvement compared to an error of 1.2 per 1000 livebirths using a standard approach. This improved prediction error for U5ACSM is consistently demonstrated for all-cause as well as pneumonia- and injury-specific mortality. We also consistently identified cause-specific mortality patterns in simulated mortality scenarios. Conclusion The log quadratic model is a significant improvement over the standard approach for deriving U5ACSM based on both simulation and empirical results.

scholarly journals Temporal and spatial estimates of adult mortality for small areas in Brazil, 1980-2010

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernardo L Queiroz ◽  
Everton Lima ◽  
Flávio Freire ◽  
Marcos Roberto Gonzaga
Keyword(s):  
Health Planning ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Pattern ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUNDThe study of mortality level and trends in developing countries is limited by the quality of vital registration system and population data, especially for small areas. However, understanding regional differences in data quality and mortality is crucial for public health planning. OBJECTIVEThe paper aims to estimate adult mortality levels for small-areas in Brazil and to examine variations and spatial patterns of adult mortality across regions, overtime and by sex in the countryMETHODSWe combine a three-method strategy. We apply a standardization technique to smooth rates in small areas. We then obtained measures of completeness of death counts coverage using Death Distribution Methods. And spatial analysis to investigate variations and patterns of adult mortality in small areas of the country.RESULTSWe find that completeness of death counts coverage improved overtime across the country. We observed that regions in the south and southeast have complete death registration systems and areas in the less developed regions are improving. We observe a large and constant differential in adult mortality by sex and regions.CONCLUSIONSWe find that the quality of mortality data in Brazil and regions is improving over time. The improvement is mostly explain by public investments in collection health data. Gender differences remained high over the period of analysis due to the increase in external causes of deaths for males. This increase also explains the concentration of high mortality levels for males in some areas of the country. CONTRIBUTIONA new methodological procedure on estimating and analyzing the evolutions on adult mortality pattern over time and across smaller areas on the presence of defective data, on both vital statistics and population data.

scholarly journals Measurement of Inequality and Compression of Mortality in India for 4 Decades: 1970–2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 68-68
Author(s):  
Mukesh Parmar
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Gini Coefficient ◽  
Age At Death ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Inequality Measures ◽  
Sample Registration System ◽  
Dispersion Measures ◽  
Measurement Of Inequality

Abstract The studies relating to measurement of compression of Mortality in India is scarce. Most of the studies relating to mortality in India are focused on either life expectancy, or adult, and child mortality. We have used methods suggested by Kannisto (2000) and Canudos (2008) to measure the compression of mortality phenomenon for India for four decades viz. 1970-2015. Dispersion measures like simple mean, median, modal age at death; and some complicated measures like life disparity, standard deviation above mode, standard deviation in highest quartile, Interquartile range, Gini coefficient, AID and C-family were calculated for India from 1970-2015. We used the age specific death rates from abridged Life tables given by Sample Registration System published by Govt. of India. Our results show that inequality in mortality is decreasing in general but the gap between male and female is increasing. There was an average of three years difference in mean and modal age at death between male females in 2011-15. Overall, mean, median and modal age at death has increased in four decades but other inequality measures like Gini coefficient, AID, Standard deviation (SD) and coefficient of variation has decreased in four decades in India. C50 indicator, which indicates that 50 percent of deaths are happening in that age interval, declined from 26 years to 20 years for males and 27 years to 17 years for females, thus indicating the rate of compression of mortality is higher for females than males in India during 1970-75 till 2011-15.

scholarly journals Association of mushroom consumption with all-cause and cause-specific mortality among American adults: prospective cohort study findings from NHANES III

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Djibril M. Ba ◽  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Joshua Muscat ◽  
Laila Al-Shaar ◽  
Vernon Chinchilli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Risk ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Dietary Factors ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Nhanes Iii ◽  
Dietary Recall ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Specific Mortality

Abstract Background Whether mushroom consumption, which is rich in several bioactive compounds, including the crucial antioxidants ergothioneine and glutathione, is inversely associated with low all-cause and cause-specific mortality remains uncertain. This study aimed to prospectively investigate the association between mushroom consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Methods Longitudinal analyses of participants from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) extant data (1988–1994). Mushroom intake was assessed by a single 24-h dietary recall using the US Department of Agriculture food codes for recipe foods. All-cause and cause-specific mortality were assessed in all participants linked to the National Death Index mortality data (1988–2015). We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results Among 15,546 participants included in the current analysis, the mean (SE) age was  44.3 (0.5) years. During a mean (SD) follow-up duration of 19.5 (7.4) years , a total of 5826 deaths were documented. Participants who reported consuming mushrooms had lower risk of all-cause mortality compared with those without mushroom intake (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 0.84; 95% CI: 0.73–0.98) after adjusting for demographic, major lifestyle factors, overall diet quality, and other dietary factors including total energy. When cause-specific mortality was examined, we did not observe any statistically significant associations with mushroom consumption. Consuming 1-serving of mushrooms per day instead of 1-serving of processed or red meats was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.50–0.84). We also observed a dose-response relationship between higher mushroom consumption and lower risk of all-cause mortality (P-trend = 0.03). Conclusion Mushroom consumption was associated with a lower risk of total mortality in this nationally representative sample of US adults.

scholarly journals Routine mortality surveillance to identify the cause of death pattern for out-of-hospital adult (aged 12+ years) deaths in Bangladesh: introduction of automated verbal autopsy

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Toufiq Hassan Shawon ◽  
Shah Ali Akbar Ashrafi ◽  
Abul Kalam Azad ◽  
Sonja M. Firth ◽  
Hafizur Chowdhury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Verbal Autopsy ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Chronic Respiratory Disease ◽  
Death Registration ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Health Programming ◽  
Performance And Evaluation ◽  
Disease Study ◽  
Causes Of Deaths

Abstract Background In Bangladesh, a poorly functioning national system of registering deaths and determining their causes leaves the country without important information on which to inform health programming, particularly for the 85% of deaths that occur in the community. In 2017, an improved death registration system and automated verbal autopsy (VA) were introduced to 13 upazilas to assess the utility of VA as a routine source of policy-relevant information and to identify leading causes of deaths (COD) in rural Bangladesh. Methods Data from 22,535 VAs, collected in 12 upazilas between October 2017 and August 2019, were assigned a COD using the SmartVA Analyze 2.0 computer algorithm. The plausibility of the VA results was assessed using a series of demographic and epidemiological checks in the Verbal Autopsy Interpretation, Performance and Evaluation Resource (VIPER) software tool. Results Completeness of community death reporting was 65%. The vast majority (85%) of adult deaths were due to non-communicable diseases, with ischemic heart disease, stroke and chronic respiratory disease comprising about 60% alone. Leading COD were broadly consistent with Global Burden of Disease study estimates. Conclusions Routine VA collection using automated methods is feasible, can produce plausible results and provides critical information on community COD in Bangladesh. Routine VA and VIPER have potential application to countries with weak death registration systems.

Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Philadelphia

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e6
Author(s):  
Megan Todd ◽  
Meagan Pharis ◽  
Sam P. Gulino ◽  
Jessica M. Robbins ◽  
Cheryl Bettigole
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
People Of Color ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Vital Registration System ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Race Ethnicity ◽  
Excess Deaths

Objectives. To estimate excess all-cause mortality in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, during the COVID-19 pandemic and understand the distribution of excess mortality in the population. Methods. With a Poisson model trained on recent historical data from the Pennsylvania vital registration system, we estimated expected weekly mortality in 2020. We compared these estimates with observed mortality to estimate excess mortality. We further examined the distribution of excess mortality by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Results. There were an estimated 3550 excess deaths between March 22, 2020, and January 2, 2021, a 32% increase above expectations. Only 77% of excess deaths (n=2725) were attributed to COVID-19 on the death certificate. Excess mortality was disproportionately high among older adults and people of color. Sex differences varied by race/ethnicity. Conclusions. Excess deaths during the pandemic were not fully explained by COVID-19 mortality; official counts significantly undercount the true death toll. Far from being a great equalizer, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated preexisting disparities in mortality by race/ethnicity. Public Health Implications. Mortality data must be disaggregated by age, sex, and race/ethnicity to accurately understand disparities among groups. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print June 10, 2021: e1–e6. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306285 )

scholarly journals Hospital mortality under surgical care

2011 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 193-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
O Aziz ◽  
D Fink ◽  
L Hobbs L ◽  
G Williams ◽  
TC Holme
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Care ◽  
Hospital Performance ◽  
General Surgeon ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Co Morbidity ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
Case Mix Adjustment ◽  
Surrogate Measure ◽  
Morbidity Index

INTRODUCTION The ‘hospital standardised mortality ratio’ (HSMR) has been used in England since 1999 to measure NHS hospital performance. Large variations in reported HSMR between English hospitals have recently led to heavy criticism of their use as a surrogate measure of hospital performance. This paper aims to review the mortality data for a consultant general surgeon contributed by his NHS trust over a 3-year period as part of the trust's HSMR calculation and evaluate the accuracy of coding the diagnoses and covariates for case mix adjustment. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The Dr Foster Intelligence database was interrogated to extract the NHS trust's HSMR benchmark data on inpatient mortality for the surgeon from 1 April 2006 to 31 March 2009 and compared to the hospital notes. RESULTS 30 patients were identified of whom 12 had no evidence of being managed by the surgeon. This represents a potential 40% inaccuracy rate in designating consultant responsibility. The remaining 18 patients could be separated into ‘operative’ (11 patients) and ‘non-operative’ (7 patients) groups. Only 27% in the operative group and 43% of the non-operative mortality group respectively had a Charlson co-morbidity index recorded despite 94% of the cases having significant co-morbidities CONCLUSIONS Highlighting crude and inaccurate clinician-specific mortality data when only 1-5% of deaths under surgical care may be associated with avoidable adverse events seems potentially irresponsible.

scholarly journals FITTING OF AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 405-415
Author(s):  
A.S. Talawar ◽  
Rajani P. Agadi
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Life Table ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Survival Functions ◽  
Mortality Pattern ◽  
Specific Mortality

The age-pattern of mortality can be represented by various parametric models. In the present paper we consider a mixture of Weibull, Inverse-Weibull, and Gompertz-Makeham (GoMa) survival functions and Heligman–Pollard model to fit U.S. life table 2014.  We use loss criterion for parameter estimation and demonstrate fitting of model. Both mixture and Heligman–Pollard model fit the mortality pattern reasonably well up to age 90.  We notice that the estimated mortality rates fit the actual pattern fairly well, although the fit at the earlier ages could be better. We have obtained the plots using our estimated values. The plots for mortality pattern of total population and other demographic characteristics (sex and race) are also considered.

NEONATAL MORTALITY IN THE EMPOWERED ACTION GROUP STATES OF INDIA: TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS

2008 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
PERIANAYAGAM AROKIASAMY ◽  
ABHISHEK GAUTAM
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Neonatal Mortality ◽  
Universal Coverage ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Registration System ◽  
Action Group ◽  
Eag States ◽  
The Impact

SummaryIn India, the eight socioeconomically backward states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh, referred to as the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states, lag behind in the demographic transition and have the highest infant mortality rates in the country. Neonatal mortality constitutes about 60% of the total infant mortality in India and is highest in the EAG states. This study assesses the levels and trends in neonatal mortality in the EAG states and examines the impact of bio-demographic compared with health care determinants on neonatal mortality. Data from India’s Sample Registration System (SRS) and National Family and Health Survey (NFHS-2, 1998–99) are used. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to estimate adjusted neonatal mortality rates by health care, bio-demographic and socioeconomic determinants. Variations in neonatal mortality by these determinants suggest that universal coverage of all pregnant women with full antenatal care, providing assistance at delivery and postnatal care including emergency care are critical inputs for achieving a reduction in neonatal mortality. Health interventions are also required that focus on curtailing the high risk of neonatal deaths arising from the mothers’ younger age at childbirth, low birth weight of children and higher order births with short birth intervals.

scholarly journals Stroke Mortality Trends in the Population of Klaipėda From 1994 to 2008

Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrikas Kazlauskas ◽  
Nijolė Raškauskienė ◽  
Rima Radžiuvienė ◽  
Vinsas Janušonis
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
World Population ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Elderly Men ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Permanent Residents

The objective of the study was to evaluate the trends in stroke mortality in the population of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years from 1994 to 2008. Material and Methods. Mortality data on all permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died from stroke in 1994–2008 were gathered for the study. All death certificates of permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died during 1994–2008 were examined in this study. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 codes 430–436, and ICD-10 codes I60–I64) was used. Sex-specific mortality rates were standardized according to the Segi’s world population; all the mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 population per year. Trends in stroke mortality were estimated using log-linear regression models. Sex-specific mortality rates and trends were calculated for 3 age groups (35–79, 35–64, and 65–79 years). Results. During the entire study period (1994–2008), a marked decline in stroke mortality with a clear slowdown after 2002 was observed. The average annual percent changes in mortality rates for men and women aged 35–79 years were –4.6% (P=0.041) and –6.5% (P=0.002), respectively. From 1994 to 2002, the stroke mortality rate decreased consistently among both Klaipėda men and women aged 35–64 years (20.4% per year, P=0.002, and 14.7% per year, P=0.006, respectively) and in the elderly population aged 65–79 years (13.8% per year, P=0.005; and 12% per year, P=0.019). During 2003–2008, stroke mortality increased by 16.3% per year in middle-aged men (35–64 years), whereas among women (aged 35–64 and 65–79 years) and elderly men (aged 65–79 years), the age-adjusted mortality rate remained relatively unchanged. Conclusions. Among both men and women, the mortality rates from stroke sharply declined between 1994 and 2008 with a clear slowdown in the decline after 2002. Stroke mortality increased significantly among middle-aged men from 2003, while it remained without significant changes among women of the same age and both elderly men and women.

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