scholarly journals Corticosteroid therapy in critically ill patients with COVID-19: a multicenter, retrospective study

Critical Care ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiming Li ◽  
Qinghe Meng ◽  
Xin Rao ◽  
Binbin Wang ◽  
Xingguo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Corticosteroid Treatment ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Initiation Time ◽  
Icu Admission

Abstract Background Corticoid therapy has been recommended in the treatment of critically ill patients with COVID-19, yet its efficacy is currently still under evaluation. We investigated the effect of corticosteroid treatment on 90-day mortality and SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance in severe patients with COVID-19. Methods 294 critically ill patients with COVID-19 were recruited between December 30, 2019 and February 19, 2020. Logistic regression, Cox proportional-hazards model and marginal structural modeling (MSM) were applied to evaluate the associations between corticosteroid use and corresponding outcome variables. Results Out of the 294 critically ill patients affected by COVID-19, 183 (62.2%) received corticosteroids, with methylprednisolone as the most frequently administered corticosteroid (175 accounting for 96%). Of those treated with corticosteroids, 69.4% received corticosteroid prior to ICU admission. When adjustments and subgroup analysis were not performed, no significant associations between corticosteroids use and 90-day mortality or SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance were found. However, when stratified analysis based on corticosteroid initiation time was performed, there was a significant correlation between corticosteroid use (≤ 3 day after ICU admission) and 90-day mortality (logistic regression adjusted for baseline: OR 4.49, 95% CI 1.17–17.25, p = 0.025; Cox adjusted for baseline and time varying variables: HR 3.89, 95% CI 1.94–7.82, p < 0.001; MSM adjusted for baseline and time-dependent variants: OR 2.32, 95% CI 1.16–4.65, p = 0.017). No association was found between corticosteroid use and SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance even after stratification by initiation time of corticosteroids and adjustments for confounding factors (corticosteroids use ≤ 3 days initiation vs no corticosteroids use) using MSM were performed. Conclusions Early initiation of corticosteroid use (≤ 3 days after ICU admission) was associated with an increased 90-day mortality. Early use of methylprednisolone in the ICU is therefore not recommended in patients with severe COVID-19.

scholarly journals Outcomes in Critically Ill Patients Sedated with Intravenous Lormetazepam or Midazolam: A Retrospective Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (18) ◽  
pp. 4091
Author(s):  
Björn Weiss ◽  
David Hilfrich ◽  
Gerald Vorderwülbecke ◽  
Maria Heinrich ◽  
Julius J. Grunow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Retrospective Cohort Study ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model

The benzodiazepine, midazolam, is one of the most frequently used sedatives in intensive care medicine, but it has an unfavorable pharmacokinetic profile when continuously applied. As a consequence, patients are frequently prolonged and more deeply sedated than intended. Due to its distinct pharmacological features, including a cytochrome P450-independent metabolization, intravenous lormetazepam might be clinically advantageous compared to midazolam. In this retrospective cohort study, we compared patients who received either intravenous lormetazepam or midazolam with respect to their survival and sedation characteristics. The cohort included 3314 mechanically ventilated, critically ill patients that received one of the two drugs in a tertiary medical center in Germany between 2006 and 2018. A Cox proportional hazards model with mortality as outcome and APACHE II, age, gender, and admission mode as covariates revealed a hazard ratio of 1.75 [95% CI 1.46–2.09; p < 0.001] for in-hospital mortality associated with the use of midazolam. After additionally adjusting for sedation intensity, the HR became 1.04 [95% CI 0.83–1.31; p = 0.97]. Thus, we concluded that excessive sedation occurs more frequently in critically ill patients treated with midazolam than in patients treated with lormetazepam. These findings require further investigation in prospective trials to assess if lormetazepam, due to its ability to maintain light sedation, might be favorable over other benzodiazepines for sedation in the ICU.

scholarly journals Association of FIB-4 index and clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury: a cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Yi Shi ◽  
Rui Zheng ◽  
Jie-Jie Cai ◽  
Zheng-Dong Fang ◽  
Wen-Jing Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Continuous Variable ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background The relationship between fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index and clinical outcomes in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) is unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between FIB-4 index and all-cause mortality in critically ill patients with AKI. Methods We used data from the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database (v1.4). The FIB-4 score was calculated using the existing formulas. logistic regression model, and Cox proportional hazards model were used to assessed the relationship between the FIB-4 index and in-hospital,28-day and 90-day mortality, respectively. Results A total of 3592 patients with AKI included in the data analysis. 395 (10.99%) patients died during hospitalization and 458 (12.74%) patients died in 28-day. During the 90-day follow-up, 893 (22.54%) patients were dead. An elevated FIB-4 value was significantly associated with increased in-hospital mortality when used as a continuous variable (odds ratio [OR] 1.183, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.072–1.305, P = 0.002) and as a quartile variable (OR of Q2 to Q4 1.216–1.744, with Q1 as reference). FIB-4 was positively associated with 28-day mortality of AKI patients with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.097 (95% CI 1.008, 1.194) and 1.098 (95% 1.032, 1.167) for 90-day mortality, respectively. Conclusion This study demonstrated the FIB-4 index is associated with clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with acute kidney injury.

scholarly journals Outcomes of Older Adults With Sepsis at Admission to an Intensive Care Unit

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Theresa Rowe ◽  
Katy L. B. Araujo ◽  
Peter H. Van Ness ◽  
Margaret A. Pisani ◽  
Manisha Juthani-Mehta
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Baseline Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background.  Sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among older adults. The main goals of this study were to assess the association of sepsis at intensive care unit (ICU) admission with mortality and to identify predictors associated with increased mortality in older adults. Methods.  We conducted a prospective cohort study of 309 participants ≥60 years admitted to an ICU. Sepsis was defined as 2 of 4 systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus a documented infection within 2 calendar days before or after admission. The main outcome measure was time to death within 1 year of ICU admission. Sepsis was evaluated as a predictor for mortality in a Cox proportional hazards model. Results.  Of 309 participants, 196 (63%) met the definition of sepsis. Among those admitted with and without sepsis, 75 (38%) vs 20 (18%) died within 1 month of ICU admission (P &lt; .001) and 117 (60%) vs 48 (42%) died within 1 year (P &lt; .001). When adjusting for baseline characteristics, sepsis had a significant impact on mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28–2.52; P &lt; .001); however, after adjusting for baseline characteristics and process covariates (antimicrobials and vasopressor use within 48 hours of admission), the impact of sepsis on mortality became nonsignificant (HR = 1.26; 95% CI, .87–1.84; P = .22). Conclusions.  The diagnosis of sepsis in older adults upon ICU admission was associated with an increase in mortality compared with those admitted without sepsis. After controlling for early use of antimicrobials and vasopressors for treatment, the association of sepsis with mortality was reduced.

scholarly journals Clinical course and risk factors of fatal adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients in Korea: a nationwide retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juhyun Song ◽  
Dae Won Park ◽  
Jae-hyung Cha ◽  
Hyeri Seok ◽  
Joo Yeong Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Hazards Model

AbstractWe investigated association between epidemiological and clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and clinical outcomes in Korea. This nationwide retrospective cohort study included 5621 discharged patients with COVID-19, extracted from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) database. We compared clinical data between survivors (n = 5387) and non-survivors (n = 234). We used logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards model to explore risk factors of death and fatal adverse outcomes. Increased odds ratio (OR) of mortality occurred with age (≥ 60 years) [OR 11.685, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.655–34.150, p < 0.001], isolation period, dyspnoea, altered mentality, diabetes, malignancy, dementia, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The multivariable regression equation including all potential variables predicted mortality (AUC = 0.979, 95% CI 0.964–0.993). Cox proportional hazards model showed increasing hazard ratio (HR) of mortality with dementia (HR 6.376, 95% CI 3.736–10.802, p < 0.001), ICU admission (HR 4.233, 95% CI 2.661–6.734, p < 0.001), age ≥ 60 years (HR 3.530, 95% CI 1.664–7.485, p = 0.001), malignancy (HR 3.054, 95% CI 1.494–6.245, p = 0.002), and dyspnoea (HR 1.823, 95% CI 1.125–2.954, p = 0.015). Presence of dementia, ICU admission, age ≥ 60 years, malignancy, and dyspnoea could help clinicians identify COVID-19 patients with poor prognosis.

scholarly journals The Circadian Temperature Trajectory Predicts the Severity and Prognosis in Critically Ill Patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongbin Deng ◽  
Xianqiang Yu ◽  
Jiajia Lin ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Zhihui Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Circadian Rhythm ◽  
Body Temperature ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Abstract Background: Disrupted circadian temperature is commonly observed in patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study is to examine the association between body temperature (BT) circadian rhythm and mortality critically in patients receiving ICU admission for at least 24h.Method: Adult patients with a complete record of temperature during the first 24 hours of ICU stay in the Multi-parameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database were included in this retrospective cohort study. Body temperature circadian rhythm ratio (BTCRR) was calculated according to the value of mean nighttime divided by daytime mean temperature. All patients were divided into the nocturnal BT rising (NBTR) group (BTCRR >1) and the non-NBTR group (BTCRR≤1). Five subgroups were also built according to different quantile of BTCRR (5%, 10%, 30%, 50%). The associations of NBTR, subgroup, and BTCRR with 28-day mortality were assessed separately using Cox proportional hazards model.Findings: The overall cohort comprised 32419 patients. The non-NBTR group (n=20148) had higher 28-day mortality than the NBTR group (n=12271). After adjusting for covariates, the analysis showed that NBTR was significantly associated with mortality at 28 days (hazard ratio: 0.923; 95% CI, 0.888–0.960, P<0.05). All results of subgroup analysis showed obvious statistical significance, and similar results persisted in the patients with different groups. The % BTCRR had a significant non-linear (p < 0.05) association with 28d-mortality after adjusting for other variables (p < 0.05). Increasing the percentage up to 101% resulted in a hazard ratio (HR) to reduced mortality (HR: 0.96; 95%, 0.941–0.972, P<0.001), while increases above 101 % didn’t make a significant suggestion in mortality.Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that both low and high BTCRR indicates a poor outcome, such that having a BTCRR of 101% had a survival advantage. BTCRR may aid in the early identification of critically ill patients at high risk of 28-day mortality. These findings may provide a basis for future randomized controlled trials comparing temperature control of ICU patients.

scholarly journals Efficacy of treatment with corticosteroids for fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis: a propensity score-matched cohort analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaru Ejima ◽  
Tsukasa Okamoto ◽  
Takafumi Suzuki ◽  
Tatsuhiko Anzai ◽  
Kunihiko Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Corticosteroid Treatment ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Propensity Score Method

Abstract Background Fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) is a chronic interstitial lung disease caused by allergic responses to repeated exposures to a causative antigen. Therapeutic evidence of the use of corticosteroids to treat fibrotic HP remains lacking, although corticosteroids are recognized as a major treatment option. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of corticosteroid treatment in patients with fibrotic HP in a propensity score-matched cohort. Methods A retrospective review of the medical records from 2005 to 2019 in a single center was conducted, and 144 patients with fibrotic HP were identified. Semiquantitative scores for lung abnormalities on HRCT were evaluated. Patients who received (PDN group) and did not receive (non-PDN group) corticosteroid treatment were matched using a propensity score method. Survival rates, serial changes in pulmonary function and annual changes in HRCT scores were compared in the matched cohort. Results In the matched analysis, 30 individuals in the PDN group were matched with 30 individuals in the non-PDN group, the majority of whom had ILD without extensive fibrosis. The survival rate was significantly better in the PDN group (P = 0.032 for the stratified Cox proportional hazards model; HR, 0.250). The absolute changes in FVC at 6, 12, and 24 months from baseline were significantly better in the PDN group. Fewer patients in the PDN group experienced annual deterioration, as reflected in the HRCT score, due to ground-glass attenuation, consolidation, reticulation, traction bronchiectasis and honeycombing. Conclusion We demonstrated that corticosteroids improved survival and slowed fibrotic progression in a matched cohort, the majority of whom had ILD without extensive fibrosis. Fibrotic HP with less severe fibrosis may benefit from corticosteroid treatment. We propose that the early initiation of corticosteroids should be considered for fibrotic HP when worsening fibrosis is observed.

Age at Exposure to Parental Suicide and the Subsequent Risk of Suicide in Young People

Crisis ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuan-Ying Lee ◽  
Chung-Yi Li ◽  
Kun-Chia Chang ◽  
Tsung-Hsueh Lu ◽  
Ying-Yeh Chen
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Birth Registry ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Parental Suicide ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age At Exposure

Abstract. Background: We investigated the age at exposure to parental suicide and the risk of subsequent suicide completion in young people. The impact of parental and offspring sex was also examined. Method: Using a cohort study design, we linked Taiwan's Birth Registry (1978–1997) with Taiwan's Death Registry (1985–2009) and identified 40,249 children who had experienced maternal suicide (n = 14,431), paternal suicide (n = 26,887), or the suicide of both parents (n = 281). Each exposed child was matched to 10 children of the same sex and birth year whose parents were still alive. This yielded a total of 398,081 children for our non-exposed cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the suicide risk of the exposed and non-exposed groups. Results: Compared with the non-exposed group, offspring who were exposed to parental suicide were 3.91 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.10–4.92 more likely to die by suicide after adjusting for baseline characteristics. The risk of suicide seemed to be lower in older male offspring (HR = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.57–6.06), but higher in older female offspring (HR = 5.30, 95% CI = 3.05–9.22). Stratified analyses based on parental sex revealed similar patterns as the combined analysis. Limitations: As only register-­based data were used, we were not able to explore the impact of variables not contained in the data set, such as the role of mental illness. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a prominent elevation in the risk of suicide among offspring who lost their parents to suicide. The risk elevation differed according to the sex of the afflicted offspring as well as to their age at exposure.

Proliferation-dominant high-grade astrocytoma: survival benefit associated with extensive resection of FLAIR abnormality region

2020 ◽  
Vol 132 (4) ◽  
pp. 998-1005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haihui Jiang ◽  
Yong Cui ◽  
Xiang Liu ◽  
Xiaohui Ren ◽  
Mingxiao Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Survival Benefit ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Extent Of Resection ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
High Grade ◽  
Extensive Resection ◽  
High Grade Astrocytoma

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.

scholarly journals Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Morne Joubert ◽  
Tanja Verster ◽  
Helgard Raubenheimer ◽  
Willem D. Schutte
Keyword(s):  
Survival Analysis ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Survival Curve ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Reporting Standard ◽  
International Financial Reporting Standard ◽  
Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

scholarly journals Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Farhadian ◽  
Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽  
Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽  
Hossein Mahjub
Keyword(s):  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

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