scholarly journals Risk factors for adverse outcomes during mechanical ventilation of 1152 COVID-19 patients: a multicenter machine learning study with highly granular data from the Dutch Data Warehouse

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas M. Fleuren ◽  
Michele Tonutti ◽  
Daan P. de Bruin ◽  
Robbert C. A. Lalisang ◽  
Tariq A. Dam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Data Warehouse ◽  
Invasive Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Relative Probability ◽  
Icu Mortality ◽  
Probability Of Death ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
Demographic Risk Factor

Abstract Background The identification of risk factors for adverse outcomes and prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay in COVID-19 patients is essential for prognostication, determining treatment intensity, and resource allocation. Previous studies have determined risk factors on admission only, and included a limited number of predictors. Therefore, using data from the highly granular and multicenter Dutch Data Warehouse, we developed machine learning models to identify risk factors for ICU mortality, ventilator-free days and ICU-free days during the course of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in COVID-19 patients. Methods The DDW is a growing electronic health record database of critically ill COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. All adult ICU patients on IMV were eligible for inclusion. Transfers, patients admitted for less than 24 h, and patients still admitted at time of data extraction were excluded. Predictors were selected based on the literature, and included medication dosage and fluid balance. Multiple algorithms were trained and validated on up to three sets of observations per patient on day 1, 7, and 14 using fivefold nested cross-validation, keeping observations from an individual patient in the same split. Results A total of 1152 patients were included in the model. XGBoost models performed best for all outcomes and were used to calculate predictor importance. Using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), age was the most important demographic risk factor for the outcomes upon start of IMV and throughout its course. The relative probability of death across age values is visualized in Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs), with an increase starting at 54 years. Besides age, acidaemia, low P/F-ratios and high driving pressures demonstrated a higher probability of death. The PDP for driving pressure showed a relative probability increase starting at 12 cmH2O. Conclusion Age is the most important demographic risk factor of ICU mortality, ICU-free days and ventilator-free days throughout the course of invasive mechanical ventilation in critically ill COVID-19 patients. pH, P/F ratio, and driving pressure should be monitored closely over the course of mechanical ventilation as risk factors predictive of these outcomes.

scholarly journals Factors influencing liberation from mechanical ventilation in coronavirus disease 2019: multicenter observational study in fifteen Italian ICUs

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Gamberini ◽  
◽  
Tommaso Tonetti ◽  
Savino Spadaro ◽  
Gianluca Zani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Competing Risks ◽  
Sofa Score ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Invasive Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Cardiovascular Complications ◽  
Icu Mortality ◽  
Icu Admission

Abstract Background A large proportion of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) develop severe respiratory failure requiring admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and about 80% of them need mechanical ventilation (MV). These patients show great complexity due to multiple organ involvement and a dynamic evolution over time; moreover, few information is available about the risk factors that may contribute to increase the time course of mechanical ventilation. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the risk factors associated with the inability to liberate COVID-19 patients from mechanical ventilation. Due to the complex evolution of the disease, we analyzed both pulmonary variables and occurrence of non-pulmonary complications during mechanical ventilation. The secondary objective of this study was the evaluation of risk factors for ICU mortality. Methods This multicenter prospective observational study enrolled 391 patients from fifteen COVID-19 dedicated Italian ICUs which underwent invasive mechanical ventilation for COVID-19 pneumonia. Clinical and laboratory data, ventilator parameters, occurrence of organ dysfunction, and outcome were recorded. The primary outcome measure was 28 days ventilator-free days and the liberation from MV at 28 days was studied by performing a competing risks regression model on data, according to the method of Fine and Gray; the event death was considered as a competing risk. Results Liberation from mechanical ventilation was achieved in 53.2% of the patients (208/391). Competing risks analysis, considering death as a competing event, demonstrated a decreased sub-hazard ratio for liberation from mechanical ventilation (MV) with increasing age and SOFA score at ICU admission, low values of PaO2/FiO2 ratio during the first 5 days of MV, respiratory system compliance (CRS) lower than 40 mL/cmH2O during the first 5 days of MV, need for renal replacement therapy (RRT), late-onset ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), and cardiovascular complications. ICU mortality during the observation period was 36.1% (141/391). Similar results were obtained by the multivariate logistic regression analysis using mortality as a dependent variable. Conclusions Age, SOFA score at ICU admission, CRS, PaO2/FiO2, renal and cardiovascular complications, and late-onset VAP were all independent risk factors for prolonged mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19. Trial registration NCT04411459

scholarly journals Outcomes and Risk Factors of Critically Ill Patients with Hematological Malignancy. Prospective Single-Centre Observational Study

Medicina ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (12) ◽  
pp. 1317
Author(s):  
Šarūnas Judickas ◽  
Raimundas Stasiūnaitis ◽  
Andrius Žučenka ◽  
Tadas Žvirblis ◽  
Mindaugas Šerpytis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Hematological Malignancy ◽  
Invasive Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Central Line ◽  
Arterial Line ◽  
Icu Mortality ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Informed Consent Form

Background and Objectives: Oncohematological patients have a high risk of mortality when they need treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of our study is to analyze the outcomes of oncohemathological patients admitted to the ICU and their risk factors. Materials and Methods: A prospective single-center observational study was performed with 114 patients from July 2017 to December 2019. Inclusion criteria were transfer to an ICU, hematological malignancy, age >18 years, a central line or arterial line inserted or planned to be inserted, and a signed informed consent form. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate the potential risk factors for ICU mortality. Results: ICU mortality was 44.74%. Invasive mechanical ventilation in ICU was used for 55.26% of the patients, and vasoactive drugs were used for 77.19% of patients. Factors independently associated with it were qSOFA score ≥2, increase of SOFA score over the first 48 h, mechanical ventilation on the first day in ICU, need for colistin therapy, lower arterial pH on arrival to ICU. Cut-off value of the noradrenaline dose associated with ICU mortality was 0.21 μg/kg/min with a ROC of 0.9686 (95%CI 0.93–1.00, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Mortality of oncohematological patients in the ICU is high and it is associated with progression of organ dysfunction over the first 48 h in ICU, invasive mechanical ventilation and need for relatively low dose of noradrenaline. Despite our findings, we do not recommend making decisions regarding treatment limitations for patients who have reached cut-off dose of noradrenaline.

scholarly journals Etiology, incidence, and outcomes of patient–ventilator asynchrony in critically-ill patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongfang Zhou ◽  
Steven R. Holets ◽  
Man Li ◽  
Gustavo A. Cortes-Puentes ◽  
Todd J. Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Invasive Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Surgical Intensive Care ◽  
Mechanically Ventilated ◽  
History Of ◽  
Training Background ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractPatient–ventilator asynchrony (PVA) is commonly encountered during mechanical ventilation of critically ill patients. Estimates of PVA incidence vary widely. Type, risk factors, and consequences of PVA remain unclear. We aimed to measure the incidence and identify types of PVA, characterize risk factors for development, and explore the relationship between PVA and outcome among critically ill, mechanically ventilated adult patients admitted to medical, surgical, and medical-surgical intensive care units in a large academic institution staffed with varying provider training background. A single center, retrospective cohort study of all adult critically ill patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation for ≥ 12 h. A total of 676 patients who underwent 696 episodes of mechanical ventilation were included. Overall PVA occurred in 170 (24%) episodes. Double triggering 92(13%) was most common, followed by flow starvation 73(10%). A history of smoking, and pneumonia, sepsis, or ARDS were risk factors for overall PVA and double triggering (all P < 0.05). Compared with volume targeted ventilation, pressure targeted ventilation decreased the occurrence of events (all P < 0.01). During volume controlled synchronized intermittent mandatory ventilation and pressure targeted ventilation, ventilator settings were associated with the incidence of overall PVA. The number of overall PVA, as well as double triggering and flow starvation specifically, were associated with worse outcomes and fewer hospital-free days (all P < 0.01). Double triggering and flow starvation are the most common PVA among critically ill, mechanically ventilated patients. Overall incidence as well as double triggering and flow starvation PVA specifically, portend worse outcome.

scholarly journals COVID-IRS: A novel predictive score for risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0248357
Author(s):  
José Antonio Garcia-Gordillo ◽  
Antonio Camiro-Zúñiga ◽  
Mercedes Aguilar-Soto ◽  
Dalia Cuenca ◽  
Arturo Cadena-Fernández ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Systemic Disease ◽  
Invasive Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Lactic Dehydrogenase ◽  
Total Sample ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Predictive Variables

Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic disease that can rapidly progress into acute respiratory failure and death. Timely identification of these patients is crucial for a proper administration of health-care resources. Objective To develop a predictive score that estimates the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) among patients with COVID-19. Study design Retrospective cohort study of 401 COVID-19 patients diagnosed from March 12, to August 10, 2020. The score development cohort comprised 211 patients (52.62% of total sample) whereas the validation cohort included 190 patients (47.38% of total sample). We divided participants according to the need of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and looked for potential predictive variables. Results We developed two predictive scores, one based on Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and the other one on the Neutrophil/Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), using the following variables: respiratory rate, SpO2/FiO2 ratio and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH). The area under the curve (AUC) in the development cohort was 0.877 (0.823–0.931) using the NLR based score and 0.891 (0.843–0.939) using the IL-6 based score. When compared with other similar scores developed for the prediction of adverse outcomes in COVID-19, the COVID-IRS scores proved to be superior in the prediction of IMV. Conclusion The COVID-IRS scores accurately predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients using readily available variables taken upon admission. More studies testing the applicability of COVID-IRS in other centers and populations, as well as its performance as a triage tool for COVID-19 patients are needed.

Abstract TP238: Encephalopathy Only Stroke Codes (EoSC) Do Not Result in rt-PA Treatments

Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Chen ◽  
Dawn Meyer ◽  
Brett Meyer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Thrombolytic Treatment ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
History Of ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Demographic Risk Factor

Background: Isolated mental status changes as presenting sign (EoSC+), are not uncommon stroke code triggers. As stroke alerts, they still require the same intensive resources be applied. We previously showed that EoSC+ strokes (EoSC+CVA+) account for 8-9% of EoSC+ codes but only 0.1-0.2% of all codes. Whether these result in thrombolytic treatment (rt-PA), and the characteristics/ risk factor profiles of EoSC+CVA+ patients, have not been reported. Methods: Retrospective analysis of stroke codes from an IRB approved registry, from 2004 to 2018, was performed. EoSC+ definition used was consistent with prior publications (NIHSS>0 for Q1a, 1b, or 1c with remaining elements scored 0). Other definitions were also assessed. Characteristics and risk factors were compared for EoSC+, EoSC+CVA+, and rt-PA (EoSC+ CVA+TPA+) patients. Results: EoSC+ occurred in 59/2982 (1.98%) of all stroke codes. EoSC+CVA+ occurred in 8/59 (13.56%) of EoSC+ codes and 8/2982 (0.27%) of all stroke codes. 6/8 (75%) of EoSC+CVA+ scored NIHSS=1. Hispanic ethnicity (p=0.009), HTN (p=0.02), and history of stroke/TIA (p=0.002) were less common in EoSC+. No demographic/ risk factor differences were noted for [EoSC+CVA+ vs. EoSC+CVA-]. No cases of rt-PA eligibility/ treatment were noted. In EoSC+CVA+ analysis, imaging positive stroke/intracranial hemorrhage was noted on only 3 cases (3/2982=0.10% of all stroke codes) and none were posterior stroke. Conclusions: EoSC+ is not an uncommon reason to activate stroke codes, but rarely results in stroke/TIA (0.27%) or stroke (0.10%), and in our analysis never (0%) resulted in rt-PA. Sub-analysis did not show missed rt-PA or posterior strokes. This adds information for application of limited acute stroke code resources. Though stroke codes must still to be activated, understanding characteristics, and knowing that EoSC+CVA+ patients are unlikely to receive rt-PA, may help triage stroke resources. Further investigation is warranted.

scholarly journals Factors associated with non-invasive mechanical ventilation failure in patients with hematological neoplasia and their association with outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lídia Miranda Barreto ◽  
◽  
Cecilia Gómez Ravetti ◽  
Thiago Bragança Athaíde ◽  
Renan Detoffol Bragança ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Clinical Judgment ◽  
Oxygen Therapy ◽  
Invasive Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Ventilatory Support ◽  
Orotracheal Intubation ◽  
Icu Mortality ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Ventilation Failure

Abstract Background The usefulness of non-invasive mechanical ventilation (NIMV) in oncohematological patients is still a matter of debate. Aim To analyze the rate of noninvasive ventilation failure and the main characteristics associated with this endpoint in oncohematological patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF). Methods A ventilatory support protocol was developed and implemented before the onset of the study. According to the PaO2/FiO2 (P/F) ratio and clinical judgment, patients received supplementary oxygen therapy, NIMV, or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Results Eighty-two patients were included, average age between 52.1 ± 16 years old; 44 (53.6%) were male. The tested protocol was followed in 95.1% of cases. Six patients (7.3%) received IMV, 59 (89.7%) received NIMV, and 17 (20.7%) received oxygen therapy. ICU mortality rates were significantly higher in the IMV (83.3%) than in the NIMV (49.2%) and oxygen therapy (5.9%) groups (P < 0.001). Among the 59 patients who initially received NIMV, 30 (50.8%) had to eventually be intubated. Higher SOFA score at baseline (1.35 [95% CI = 1.12–2.10], P = 0.007), higher respiratory rate (RR) (1.10 [95% CI = 1.00–1.22], P = 0.048), and sepsis on admission (16.9 [95% CI = 1.93–149.26], P = 0.011) were independently associated with the need of orotracheal intubation among patients initially treated with NIMV. Moreover, NIMV failure was independently associated with ICU (P < 0.001) and hospital mortality (P = 0.049), and mortality between 6 months and 1 year (P < 0.001). Conclusion The implementation of a NIMV protocol is feasible in patients with hematological neoplasia admitted to the ICU, even though its benefits still remain to be demonstrated. NIMV failure was associated with higher SOFA and RR and more frequent sepsis, and it was also related to poor prognosis.

scholarly journals Expiratory flow limitation in intensive care: prevalence and risk factors

Critical Care ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Alberto Volta ◽  
Francesca Dalla Corte ◽  
Riccardo Ragazzi ◽  
Elisabetta Marangoni ◽  
Alberto Fogagnolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mechanical Ventilation ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Fluid Balance ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Small Airways ◽  
Flow Limitation ◽  
Expiratory Flow Limitation ◽  
Expected Length ◽  
Expiratory Flow

Abstract Background Expiratory flow limitation (EFL) is characterised by a markedly reduced expiratory flow insensitive to the expiratory driving pressure. The presence of EFL can influence the respiratory and cardiovascular function and damage the small airways; its occurrence has been demonstrated in different diseases, such as COPD, asthma, obesity, cardiac failure, ARDS, and cystic fibrosis. Our aim was to evaluate the prevalence of EFL in patients requiring mechanical ventilation for acute respiratory failure and to determine the main clinical characteristics, the risk factors and clinical outcome associated with the presence of EFL. Methods Patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with an expected length of mechanical ventilation of 72 h were enrolled in this prospective, observational study. Patients were evaluated, within 24 h from ICU admission and for at least 72 h, in terms of respiratory mechanics, presence of EFL through the PEEP test, daily fluid balance and followed for outcome measurements. Results Among the 121 patients enrolled, 37 (31%) exhibited EFL upon admission. Flow-limited patients had higher BMI, history of pulmonary or heart disease, worse respiratory dyspnoea score, higher intrinsic positive end-expiratory pressure, flow and additional resistance. Over the course of the initial 72 h of mechanical ventilation, additional 21 patients (17%) developed EFL. New onset EFL was associated with a more positive cumulative fluid balance at day 3 (103.3 ml/kg) compared to that of patients without EFL (65.8 ml/kg). Flow-limited patients had longer duration of mechanical ventilation, longer ICU length of stay and higher in-ICU mortality. Conclusions EFL is common among ICU patients and correlates with adverse outcomes. The major determinant for developing EFL in patients during the first 3 days of their ICU stay is a positive fluid balance. Further studies are needed to assess if a restrictive fluid therapy might be associated with a lower incidence of EFL.

scholarly journals COVID-19 severity: Studying the clinical and demographic risk factors for adverse outcomes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0255999
Author(s):  
Naila Shoaib ◽  
Naila Noureen ◽  
Rimsha Munir ◽  
Farhad Ali Shah ◽  
Noshaba Ishtiaq ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
Demographic Risk ◽  
Demographic Risk Factors

Background The primary goal of the presented cross-sectional observational study was to determine the clinical and demographic risk factors for adverse coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes in the Pakistani population. Methods We examined the individuals (n = 6331) that consulted two private diagnostic centers in Lahore, Pakistan, for COVID-19 testing between May 1, 2020, and November 30, 2020. The attending nurse collected clinical and demographic information. A confirmed case of COVID-19 was defined as having a positive result through real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay of nasopharyngeal swab specimens. Results RT-PCR testing was positive in 1094 cases. Out of which, 5.2% had severe, and 20.8% had mild symptoms. We observed a strong association of COVID-19 severity with the number and type of comorbidities. The severity of the disease intensified as the number of comorbidities increased. The most vulnerable groups for the poor outcome are patients with diabetes and hypertension. Increasing age was also associated with PCR positivity and the severity of the disease. Conclusions Most cases of COVID-19 included in this study developed mild symptoms or were asymptomatic. Risk factors for adverse outcomes included older age and the simultaneous presence of comorbidities.

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