scholarly journals Going, going, gone: competitive decision-making in Dutch auctions

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Murray Bennett ◽  
Rachel Mullard ◽  
Marc T. P. Adam ◽  
Mark Steyvers ◽  
Scott Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Subjective Expected Utility ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Step Rate ◽  
Dutch Auction ◽  
Maximum Price ◽  
Rate Step ◽  
Current Price ◽  
Starting Price ◽  
Bidding Behaviour

AbstractIn a Dutch auction, an item is offered for sale at a set maximum price. The price is then gradually lowered over a fixed interval of time until a bid is made, securing the item for the bidder at the current price. Bidders must trade-off between certainty and price: bid early to secure the item and you pay a premium; bid later at a lower price but risk losing to another bidder. These properties of Dutch auctions provide new opportunities to study competitive decision-making in a group setting. We developed a novel computerised Dutch auction platform and conducted a set of experiments manipulating volatility (fixed vs varied number of items for sale) and price reduction interval rate (step-rate). Triplets of participants ($$N=66$$ N = 66 ) competed with hypothetical funds against each other. We report null effects of step-rate and volatility on bidding behaviour. We developed a novel adaptation of prospect theory to account for group bidding behaviour by balancing certainty and subjective expected utility. We show the model is sensitive to variation in auction starting price and can predict the associated changes in group bid prices that were observed in our data.

It may help you to know. . .": The early phase qualitative development of a rheumatoid arthritis goal elicitation tool

2021 ◽  
pp. jrheum.201615
Author(s):  
Julie Kahler ◽  
Ginnifer Mastarone ◽  
Rachel Matsumoto ◽  
Danielle ZuZero ◽  
Jacob Dougherty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Shared Decision Making ◽  
Treatment Guidelines ◽  
Training Session ◽  
Clinic Visit ◽  
Shared Decision ◽  
Communication Tool ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Patient Goals

Objective Treatment guidelines for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) include a patient-centered approach and shared decision making which includes a discussion of patient goals. We describe the iterative early development of a structured goal elicitation tool to facilitate goal communication for persons with RA and their clinicians. Methods Tool development occurred in three phases: 1) clinician feedback on the initial prototype during a communication training session; 2) semi-structured interviews with RA patients; and 3) community stakeholder feedback on elements of the goal elicitation tool in a group setting and electronically. Feedback was dynamically incorporated into the tool. Results Clinicians (n=15) and patients (n=10) provided feedback on the tool prototypes. Clinicians preferred a shorter tool de-emphasizing goals outside of their perceived treatment domain or available resources, highlighted the benefits of the tool to facilitate conversation but raised concern regarding current constraints of the clinic visit. Patients endorsed the utility of such a tool to support agenda setting and prepare for a visit. Clinicians, patients, and community stakeholders reported the tool was useful but identified barriers to implementation that the tool could itself resolve. Conclusion A goal elicitation tool for persons with RA and their clinicians was iteratively developed with feedback from multiple stakeholders. The tool can provide a structured way to communicate patient goals within a clinic visit and help overcome reported barriers, such as time constraints. Incorporating a structured communication tool to enhance goal communication and foster shared decision making may lead to improved outcomes and higher quality care in RA.

Informed decision making (IDM) for prostate cancer (PCa) screening in a high-risk population.

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 112-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Puneet Dhillon ◽  
Petros Grivas ◽  
Paola Raska ◽  
Devon Hickman ◽  
Paul Elson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Family History ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Post Test

112 Background: PCa incidence and mortality in African Americans (AA) is higher than in Caucasians. Health-education programs and culturally appropriate outreach to high-risk groups in accordance with American Cancer Society IDM guidelines can reduce disparities. Data show that it is hard to provide comprehensive unbiased education about screening to patients (pts). This study aims to examine whether IDM guidelines in a large high risk group setting can improve knowledge on PCa and screening decision, and whether such education program is overall beneficial to pts. Methods: Pts were included in one-day outreach event and were given a 15-question pre and post- test focused on standard informative educational PowerPoint and then were offered screening (PSA + DRE). Components of IDM were reviewed during this educational intervention. Demographics and family history was collected and UCSF 10-year mortality index was assessed to help IDM. Pre- and post- test number of correct answers were compared (Wilcoxon signed rank); pts were surveyed on their opinion on the program. The decision regarding screening after the intervention was tracked as well as the % of PCa diagnosed. Pts were tracked via an established navigation system to ensure follow up care. Results: 106 pts were included in the current analysis. Median number of correct answers at pre and post test was 8 and 11 (p < 0.001). Overall, 86% responded that they wanted screening. Of those, 92% were AA and 21% had family history of PCa; 21 pts had PSA only, 60 had PSA + DRE. 13 pts (16%) had abnormal PSA per NCCN guidelines, 5 (8%) had abnormal DRE. 5 PCa were biopsy-diagnosed, 4 had abnormal DRE + PSA; 1 had only abnormal DRE. Overall, 82% pts favored IDM before screening, 18% would prefer screening without IDM. 75% of all pts found the information “very helpful” in decision-making (within a 5-point Likert scale). Conclusions: Our education-based IDM led to significant improvement in knowledge about PCa screening. Most pts preferred education prior to screening. Our approach paired with the use of navigation program is feasible and was positively received by a large high risk group. Project is ongoing with more pts and follow up, and further validation is pending. Clinical trial information: NCT02419846.

scholarly journals Farm decision making under risk and uncertainty

1997 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 307-328 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.B.C. Backus ◽  
V.R. Eidman ◽  
A.A. Dijkhuizen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Expected Utility Theory ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Subjective Expected Utility ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Decision Making Under Risk ◽  
Agricultural Risk ◽  
Risk Research

Relevant portions of the risk literature are reviewed, relating them to observed behaviour in farm decision-making. Relevant topics for applied agricultural risk research are proposed. The concept of decision making under risk and uncertainty is discussed by reviewing the theory of Subjective Expected Utility and its limitations. Subjective Expected Utility theory is the major framework for thinking systematically through complex issues of decision. Limitations of Subjective Expected Utility theory were that its application to unique decisions is doubtful, that it does not contribute to difficulties in determining the available decision alternatives, and that it is cast in a timeless setting, making the theoretic framework to a very limited extent helpful to solve real world decision problems. Most empirical studies indicate that farmers are risk neutral to slightly risk averse. It is doubtful whether decision makers could be classified according to their risk preferences. A presented overview of applied risk responses reveals much attention for diversification of the enterprise and of production practices, maintaining reserves, and farm expansion. Research reports on observed problems in farm decision making behaviour are lacking. Proposed topics for agricultural risk research include the assessment of the need for a strategic change, the creation of databases to determine both the (co)variances of input and output prices, the effectiveness of various kinds of decision support for different decision problems, and methods for applied scenario analysis to deal with long-run risk.

Revisiting Ellsberg’s and Machina’s Paradoxes: A Two-Stage Evaluation Model Under Ambiguity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying He
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Subjective Expected Utility ◽  
Uncertainty Aversion ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Small Domain ◽  
Different Sources

In this paper, a two-stage evaluation (TSE) model for decision making under ambiguity is proposed. Events in state space are classified into risky and ambiguous events, which correspond to different types of uncertainty generated by different sources. In this TSE model, uncertainty of two different types are evaluated by decision maker (DM) in different stages. In the first stage, DM evaluates more uncertain consequences of an act locally by applying local subjective expected utility (SEU) models, which are then embedded into the second-stage evaluation based on SEU defined globally over all events. To axiomatize such a model, the small domain SEU over risky acts is extended to both risky and nonrisky (ambiguous) acts. When evaluating a risky act, TSE model reduces to Savage’s SEU with one stage. When evaluating an ambiguous act, local SEU with a different uncertainty aversion defined on ambiguous events gives TSE model some flexibility in describing preferences. It can be shown that TSE model can accommodate Ellsberg’s paradoxes and Machina’s paradoxes in the literature. When applied to portfolio selection problem, TSE model enjoys some nice properties other models do not have. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.

ThinkClick

2011 ◽  
pp. 865-871
Author(s):  
Hanan Yaniv ◽  
Susan Crichton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Support System ◽  
Multiple Choice Questions ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Large Group ◽  
Multi Attribute Utility Theory ◽  
Electronic Response ◽  
Individual Participant ◽  
Large Audience ◽  
Response Systems

Getting a large audience to actively participate in a lecture is a challenge faced by many lecturers. The value of active participation is well supported in current research with significant contribution made by the introduction of electronic response systems (ERS). ERS allows each member of the audience to participate by using a hand-held device (like a TV remote control), responding to (usually) multiple-choice questions presented on a board. This article is introducing a new approach to the use of ERS, making the audience engage in a decision- making process based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), a commonly used theory in decision making, aiming to: • Help conference participants, in a large group setting, prioritize suggestions and action items developed over the previous days of a conference, drawing on discussions held in concurrent, small group break out sessions. • Organize those suggestions/items into a prioritized list that reflects the discussions and honors individual participant voice. • Generate a list, based on the group organization process that will direct future innovation for conference participants and organizers. • Present the collective knowledge from the conference in a way that participants can see themselves as contributing partners in the conference outcome statements. This article, then, describes a case study of decision making in a large audience, keeping each participant involved in a meaningful process of an elaborated analysis of action items. The technology, the process, and the experiment are presented as a study of the feasibility of using such systems in large audiences. We introduce here the term large group decision support system (LGDSS) to describe the process of using technology to assist a large audience in making decisions.

Subjective expected utility: A model of decision-making

1981 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 391-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baruch Fischhoff ◽  
Bernard Goitein ◽  
Zur Shapira
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
Subjective Expected Utility

scholarly journals Who cares about the outgroup? Political ideology, empathy, and moral decision-making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arathy Puthillam ◽  
Hansika Kapoor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Political Ideology ◽  
Moral Dilemma ◽  
Hierarchical Structures ◽  
Moral Dilemmas ◽  
Reactivity Index ◽  
Moral Decision ◽  
Moral Decision Making ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Moral Decisions

Conservatives are known to display smaller moral circles, have less empathy, and make utilitarian decisions. The present study aimed to understand the relationships between political ideology and empathetic concern (n = 513), and between ideology and moral decision-making (n = 210) in an inter-group setting, using an Indian sample. We measured trait empathetic concern and empathetic concern for the ingroup (i.e., their own religion) and outgroup (i.e., Muslims) using the Interpersonal Reactivity Index, and measured moral decision-making for a non-denominational group and in- and out-group using modified moral dilemmas. We found that right-leaning individuals, in terms of greater adherence to cultural norms, displayed higher levels of trait empathetic concern, as well as that for in- and outgroups; they were also more willing to sacrifice the outgroup to save multiple ingroup members in moral dilemma tasks, and thus made utilitarian moral decisions when sacrificing outgroup lives were concerned. Additionally, those leaning left, in terms of lower adherence to hierarchical structures, showed higher levels of empathetic concern for the outgroup. Implications and future avenues are discussed.

Multiple Beliefs, Dominance and Dynamic Consistency

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tommi Ekholm ◽  
Erin Baker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Expected Utility ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Dynamic Consistency ◽  
Subjective Expected Utility ◽  
Dynamic Inconsistency ◽  
Real World Problem ◽  
Second Period

This paper investigates multiperiod decisions under multiple beliefs. We explore the dynamic consistency of both complete and incomplete orderings. We focus on a dominance concept that supports decision-making under multiple characterizations of uncertainty by ruling out strategies that are dominated across a set of beliefs. We uncover a distinction between two types of dynamic inconsistency, which we label fallacious and fallible inconsistency. Fallacious inconsistency occurs when an a priori optimal strategy is suboptimal in the second period, thus requiring the decision-maker to depart from the original strategy. Fallible inconsistency occurs when an a priori suboptimal second-period action ceases being suboptimal from the perspective of the second-period preferences. We introduce corresponding definitions of dynamic consistency and show that the two types of consistency are equivalent for complete orderings, but differ for incomplete orderings. Subjective expected utility is dynamically consistent and non-expected-utility decision rules, such as minmax, are not. We show that the dominance relation over beliefs falls between these two: it is immune to the more severe fallacious inconsistency, but not to the less problematic fallible inconsistency. We illustrate the method and concepts using a numerical example addressing a focal, real-world problem of risk and ambiguity regarding climate change. This paper was accepted by Ilia Tsetlin, decision analysis.

The Effectiveness of Expert Support Technology for Decision Making: Individuals versus Small Groups

1999 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fui Hoon (Fiona) Nah ◽  
Jiye Mao ◽  
Izak Benbasat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Small Groups ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
Group Setting ◽  
Versus Group ◽  
Expert Support ◽  
Research Show

Expert support systems (ESSs) are increasingly used in organizations to support individuals and groups in decision making. Although ESSs have been shown to enhance the decision-making capabilities of individuals, their benefits in supporting group decision making are less clear. To the best of our knowledge, no empirical research has evaluated the effectiveness of the technology in the group setting or compared its usefulness for supporting individual versus group decision making. The results of this research show that ESSs benefit decision making of both individuals and groups and novices are able to gain more from ESSs than experts. The findings also suggest that groups outperform individuals in both with and without ESS support settings.

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