scholarly journals How to make good-enough risk decisions

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 192-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Carroll

SummaryMaking decisions in the context of risk is an integral part of psychiatric work. Despite this, decision-making skills are rarely systematically taught and the processes behind decisions are rarely made explicit. This article attempts to apply contemporary evidence from cognitive and social psychology to common dilemmas faced by psychiatrists when assessing and managing risk. It argues that clinical decision-making should acknowledge both the value and limitations of intuitive approaches in dealing with complex dilemmas. After discussing the various ways in which clinical decision-making is commonly derailed, the article outlines a framework that accommodates both rational and intuitive modes of thinking, with the aim of optimising decision-making in high-risk situations.

Blood ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (22) ◽  
pp. 2889-2889 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ella Willenbacher ◽  
Sofia Gasser ◽  
Günther Gastl ◽  
Wolfgang Willenbacher

Abstract Abstract 2889 Poster Board II-865 Introduction: Serum free light chain analysis (sFLCA) is a tool to monitor myeloma disease activity and treatment response, and stratify myeloma pts. to defined risk groups and has been incorporated into diagnostic guidelines[1]. Either the ratio of the free kappa/lambda light chains (FLCQ), the absolute value of the involved light chain (FLCi) or the difference of involved and uninvolved light chain (FLCD) may be used. While sFLCA is recommended , urine analysis (uFLCA) at the moment is not. To analyze whether results from sFLCA and uFLCA would potentially have translated into altered clinical decision making and timing of treatments compared to classical paraprotein measurements (sPPM) in a cohort of myeloma patients we analyzed all measurements routinely performed at Innsbruck University Hospital between MAR 03 and OKT 08 and correlated them to individual pts. clinical courses. Methods: 187 pts. (109 m, 78 f) out 235 pts. identified were deemed eligible. Myeloma subtypes were IgG (57.2%), IgA (21,9%), light chain only (13.9%), IgM (3.2%), oligo and nonsecretory (2.6 %, incl. 2 pts. completely asecretory), and IgD (1,0%). 4 pts. were complete immunoglobulin only secreters. According to mSMART 15% were high risk, 61% standard risk and 23,5% of unknown category. In this cohort 3202 sFLCa, 1136 uFLCa and 2583 sPPM were performed (range 2-89, median 12). This measurements were correlated with 167 treatment lines applied in this pts. (49 auto-transplants, 3 allo-transplants, 7 auto/allo procedures, 68 regimes containing novel agents and 40 conventional chemotherapeutic approaches. Patients, Assays and Treatment Lines: 187 pts. (109 m, 78 f) out 235 pts. identified were deemed eligible. Myeloma subtypes were IgG (57.2%), IgA (21,9%), light chain only (13.9%), IgM (3.2%), oligo and nonsecretory (2.6 %, incl. 2 pts. completely asecretory), and IgD (1,0%). 4 pts. were complete immunoglobulin only secreters. According to mSMART 15% were high risk, 61% standard risk and 23,5% of unknown category. In this cohort 3202 sFLCa, 1136 uFLCa and 2583 sPPM were performed (range 2-89, median 12). This measurements were correlated with 167 treatment lines applied in this pts. (49 auto-transplants, 3 allo-transplants, 7 auto/allo procedures, 68 regimes containing novel agents and 40 conventional chemotherapeutic approaches. Results: sFLCa showed a significant advantage in detecting any of the predefined clinical endpoints (Table 1) . By using sPPM only , ∼ 40% of events would have been missed during the observation period. A median of 13% of the applied therapies proven to be ineffective could have been stopped and altered earlier on using the results of sFLCa. While the use of sFLCi and sFLCD resulted in comparable rates of false pos. and neg. results (Table 2) in comparison to sPPM, sFLCQ is more sensitive to effects of immunoparesis, changes of the uninvolved FLC concentration and renal function resulting in both more false pos., as well as false neg. results. sFLCa detected relapses with a median of 3 months prior to sPPM, therapeutic effectiveness with a median of 2 therapy cycles earlier than sPPM and therapeutic failure with a median of 1 antecedent cycle of therapy. Data on uFLCa will be provided at ASH. Discussion: This analysis proves sFLCa to be a useful tool in monitoring myeloma pts. clinical courses and the therapeutic effectiveness of myeloma treatment approaches, even in the setting of “real life medicine”. For monitoring purposes sFLCi and sFLCD should be used preferably due the higher false pos./neg. potential of sFLCQ . By using sFLCa in a structured diagnostic pathway treatment effectiveness could be judged earlier on and altered if necessary. Thus this analysis shows a potentially clinically significant benefit to myeloma pts. [1] Dispenzieri et al. Leukemia advance online publication 20 November 2008; doi:10.1038/leu.2008.307 Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


1999 ◽  
Vol 84 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
DeAnna L. Mori ◽  
Wayne Klein ◽  
Patricia Gallagher

Psychosocial factors are presented which affect clinical decision-making regarding the allocation of renal organs. Patients were rated as being either High Risk or Low Risk transplant candidates High Risk candidates were scored as being significantly different from the Low Risk candidates on many psychosocial variables. Interestingly, significant differences were not found between these two groups on either the MMPI–2 or the Beck Depression Inventory. The validity of using information from these inventories to allocate organs is discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 652-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela A. Ferraro ◽  
Helena I. Garcia Schüler ◽  
Urs J. Muehlematter ◽  
Daniel Eberli ◽  
Julian Müller ◽  
...  

BMJ Open ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. e000414 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Balla ◽  
Carl Heneghan ◽  
Matthew Thompson ◽  
Margaret Balla

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 3988
Author(s):  
Regina Esi Mensimah Baiden-Amissah ◽  
Daniela Annibali ◽  
Sandra Tuyaerts ◽  
Frederic Amant

Endometrial carcinomas (EC) are the sixth most common cancer in women worldwide and the most prevalent in the developed world. ECs have been historically sub-classified in two major groups, type I and type II, based primarily on histopathological characteristics. Notwithstanding the usefulness of such classification in the clinics, until now it failed to adequately stratify patients preoperatively into low- or high-risk groups. Pieces of evidence point to the fact that molecular features could also serve as a base for better patients’ risk stratification and treatment decision-making. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), back in 2013, redefined EC into four main molecular subgroups. Despite the high hopes that welcomed the possibility to incorporate molecular features into practice, currently they have not been systematically applied in the clinics. Here, we outline how the emerging molecular patterns can be used as prognostic factors together with tumor histopathology and grade, and how they can help to identify high-risk EC subpopulations for better risk stratification and treatment strategy improvement. Considering the importance of the use of preclinical models in translational research, we also discuss how the new patient-derived models can help in identifying novel potential targets and help in treatment decisions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 86 (11) ◽  
pp. 1561-1564
Author(s):  
Anthony M. Scott ◽  
Paul S. Dale ◽  
Arnold Conforti ◽  
Jennifer N. Gibbs

Background The practice of utilizing gene expression profile (GEP) for the evaluation and treatment of cutaneous melanomas has been found to predict the risk of sentinel-node metastasis and recurrence. Information obtained from this assay has been used to determine clinical decision-making, including serving as an indication for sentinel lymph node biopsy and also for the intensity of screening measures. Methods Herein we present our early experience in utilizing 31-GEP in intermediate melanomas and its effect on clinical management. A retrospective review was conducted of patients who had undergone treatment for melanoma whose tumors had been subjected to 31-GEP. Additionally, patient characteristics, attributes of the original tumor biopsied, findings on final pathology, and procedures performed were evaluated. Results 31-GEP stratified patients into 4 groups; groups 1A and 1B are considered low risk of metastasis or recurrence, while 2A and 2B are considered high risk. Over the study period, 31-GEP was conducted on 26 cutaneous melanoma patients. Testing and treatment data are available for 23 of these patients. Eleven patients were found to be low risk (9 as 1A, 2 as 1B), 12 were found to be high risk (4 as 2A, 8 as 2B). Decision-making was altered such that sentinel lymph node biopsy was omitted in 2 cases in which the patients were found to be low risk with age >65 years. Discussion In 8 cases of node-negative disease in genetically high-risk patients, surveillance measures were augmented with positron emission tomography/computed tomography. Utilization of 31-GEP is ongoing at our institution.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-3
Author(s):  
Ben Lovell ◽  

In February 2021 Jon Hilton (AIM ST4 doctor) published a tweet asking about how the Acute Medicine community can best address potential applicant’s fears of dealing with clinical risk. ​(1)​ Appraising and managing risk is at the core of acute medical clinical practice; we treat patients in the first crucial 24 hours of their hospital journey, when the clinical status is changeable, and the clinical trajectory not yet established. We make judgement calls about medical treatment, but also about whether a patient can be safely discharged home, and this often causes anxiety amongst less experienced clinicians: how do you make that call? Dealing with risk can be tricky to teach. It is a skill that stands on two legs: one leg is data and the other is clinical experience. As the pandemic intensified, Acute Medicine’s role as front door risk managers became more important than ever before. We displayed massive amounts of creativity and initiative to develop pathways and processes to ensure patients were followed up at home. But we were still operating with many unknown variables and did not yet have the experience nor the data required to make the crucial risk calculations and judgement calls that forms the heart of our working practice. Long before we began to recognise patterns in our patients in their diseases, and before we began to create a new language to describe and communicate what we were seeing – the ‘happy hypoxic’ and the ‘day-10 wobble’ – we operated in a form of darkness, making the best decisions we could. One year and two COVID-19 peaks later, we are better able to make nuanced decisions about patient risk, and reach collaborative plans with our patients, as the international COVD-19 academic library grows and elaborates. In this issue Azijli et al ​(2)​ present the findings of the COVERED trial, which establishes a validated model that predicts poor outcomes in patients in the Emergency Department. This model is a tool that can help power our risk perception and clinical decision-making on the medical take. Deciding whether to thrombolyse an acute pulmonary embolism is another exercise in risk management. Weighing the risk of death from obstructive shock against death from haemorrhage, whilst remaining mindful of the longterm cardiopulmonary sequel of an untreated high-risk PE. Apsey et al ​(3)​ followed up patients with massive and sub-massive emboli who received emergency thrombolytic therapy and favour an acute thrombolysis strategy in their conclusion. This is a small study, but provides some substrate for reflection: how do we perceive the risks of thrombolysis in out own institutions, and how does the effect our patient care? It is not uncommon for physicians to be given a troponin results that they did not want nor request, but must now square away with their assessment and evaluation of a patient. Most of us shrink away from the descriptor ‘troponin-positive chest pain’ as a not-quite diagnosis, but when we have ruled out acute myocardial infarction, what conditions remain under this umbrella term? Hansen et al ​(4)​ describe the common conditions that lead to elevated troponin levels, and – crucially – tell us about these patients’ outcomes. Their paper shows us that patients with a high troponin, without an acute MI, have a very high mortality. This brings us back to risk: how do we keep these patients safe? The pandemic has brought dramatic changes into our clinical and personal lives. Our trainee doctors have undergone rapid redeployments to new work environments. They often moved from low-risk to high-risk COVID-19 environments with very little notice. Some of them became very sick with COVID-19. They have had expensive and mandatory examinations cancelled. Many have been left with uncertain futures, not knowing if they will be able to progress with their training programmes as anticipated. Aziminia et al ​(5)​ have captured their voice in this issue, and make suggestions toward helping trainees navigate this incredibly uncertain period in their medical careers.


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