Μοντέλα ανάλυσης επιβίωσης

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Θεοδώρα Δημητρακοπούλου

The study of events involving an element of time has a long and important history in statistical research and practice. Survival analysis is a collection of statistical procedures for the analysis of data, where the response of interest is the time until an event occurs. Though such events may refer to any designated experience of interest, they are generally referred to as ‘failures’, whereas the time to their occurrences is referred to as ‘lifetime’ or ‘failure time’. Examples of failure times include the lifetimes of machine components in industrial reliability, the durations of strikes or periods of unemployment in economics, the times taken by subjects to complete specified tasks in psychological experimentation and the survival or remission times of patients in clinical trials.Generally speaking, the estimation, prediction or otimization of survival probabilities or life expectancies has become an issue of considerable interest in many different fields of human life and activity. Therefore, survival analysis has developed into an important tool for researchers in many areas, particularly, those involving biomedical studies and industrial life testing. This dissertation is occupied with continuous lifetime models. In this context, the first chapter, provides a short overview on the basic concepts o f survival analysis. Distribution representations of the time to failure are given when the life lengths are measured by a continuous nonnegative random variable and special emphasis is placed on the hazard function due to its intuitive appeal. In the sequel, several univariate popular lifetime distributions are presented and two specialized models designed to describe more complicated failure patterns (competing risks and frailty models) are briefly examined. The basic concepts of survival analysis for bivariate populations are considered next and the most popular bivariate lifetime distributions are reported. In the second chapter, various statistical properties and reliability aspects of a two parameter distribution with decreasing and increasing failure rates are explored. The model includes the Exponential-Geometric distribution (Adamidis and Loukas, 1988) as a special case. Characterizations are given and the estimation of parameters is studied by the method of maximum likelihood. An EM algorithm (Dempster et al., 1977) is proposed for computing the estimates and expressions for their asymptotic variances and covariances are derived. Numerical examples based on real data are shown, to illustrate the applicability of the new model. The results of this chapter are included in Adamidis et al. (2005).Though the most popular lifetime models are those with monotone hazard rates, when the entire life span of a biological entity or a manufactured item is under consideration, high initial and eventual failure rates are frequently observed, indicating a bathtub shaped failure rate (Gaver and Acar, 1979). Also, situations involving a high occurrence of early ‘failures’ are best modeled by distributions with upturned bathtub shaped hazard rates (Chhikara and Folks, 1977). In the third chapter, a three parameter lifetime distribution with increasing, decreasing, bathtub and upside down bathtub shaped failure rates is introduced. The new model includes the Weibull distribution as a special case. A motivation for its derivation is given using a competing risks interpretation when restricting its parametric space. Several of its statistical properties and reliability aspects are explored and the estimation of the parameters is studied using the standard maximum likelihood procedures. Applications of the model to real data are also included. The results of this chapter are included in Dimitrakopoulou et al. (2006 b). In the forth chapter, bivariate extensions of the model introduced in the second chapter are presented, along with the physical considerations leading to their derivation. Marginal and conditional distributions are obtained and their corresponding survival and hazard functions are calculated. The dependence in the proposed bivariate distributions is evaluated by means of the Pearson correlation coefficient. The models presented so far, implicitly assume that the population under study is homogeneous, an assumption which is often unrealistic in practice. However, heterogeneity is not only of interest in its own right but actually distorts what is observed. One o f the ways of assessing the impact of heterogeneity in mortality studies is via the concept of frailty introduced by Vaupel et al. (1979). When the multiplicative frailty model is underconsideration (e.g. Hougaard, 1984), the assumption of a gamma distributed frailty leads to the so called gamma frailty model. Chapter five, is devoted to exploiting some aspects of its relevant distribution theory. Failure rate characterizations are obtained and bounds on the survival function are constructed. Moreover, it is shown that the model can serve as a method of constructing lifetime models or extending existing ones (by adding a parameter in the sense of Marsall and Olkin, (1997)). Therefore, the investigation of its reliability aspects, provides a unified approach in studying lifetime distributions in a reliability context and a way of assessing the impact of the ‘average’ individual survival capacity - in the presence of heterogeneity - on what is actually observed. The results of this chapter are included in Dimitrakopoulou et al. (2006 a).

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 456-473
Author(s):  
Dominika M. Urbańczyk

AbstractResearch background: Enterprises are an important element of the economy, which explains that the analysis of their duration on the market is an important and willingly undertaken research topic. In the case of complex problems like this, considering only one type of event, which ends the duration, is often insufficient for full understanding.Purpose: In this paper there is an analysis of the duration of enterprises on the market, taking into account various reasons for the termination of their business activity as well as their characteristics.Research methodology: A survival analysis can be used to study duration on the market. However, the possibility of considering the waiting time for only one type of event is its important limitation. One solution is to use competing risks. Various competing risks models (naive Kaplan-Meier estimator, subdistribution model, subhazard and cause-specific hazard) are presented and compared with an indication of their advantages and weakness.Results: The competing risks models are estimated to investigate the impact of the causes of an enterprises liquidation on duration distribution. The greatest risk concerns enterprises with a natural person as the owner (regardless of the reason of failure). For each of the competing risks, it is also indicated that there is a section of activity which adversely affects the ability of firms to survive on the market.Novelty: A valuable result is considering the reasons for activity termination in the duration analysis for enterprises from the Mazowieckie Voivodeship.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 4038-4060
Author(s):  
Mohamed Kayid ◽  
◽  
Adel Alrasheedi

<abstract><p>In this paper, a mean inactivity time frailty model is considered. Examples are given to calculate the mean inactivity time for several reputable survival models. The dependence structure between the population variable and the frailty variable is characterized. The classical weighted proportional mean inactivity time model is considered as a special case. We prove that several well-known stochastic orderings between two frailties are preserved for the response variables under the weighted proportional mean inactivity time model. We apply this model on a real data set and also perform a simulation study to examine the accuracy of the model.</p></abstract>


2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Usha Govindarajulu ◽  
Sandeep Bedi

Abstract Background The purpose of this research was to see how the k-means algorithm can be applied to survival analysis with single events per subject for defining groups, which can then be modeled in a shared frailty model to further allow the capturing the unmeasured confounding not already explained by the covariates in the model. Methods For this purpose we developed our own k-means survival grouping algorithm to handle this approach. We compared a regular shared frailty model with a regular grouping variable and a shared frailty model with a k-means grouping variable in simulations as well as analysis on a real dataset. Results We found that in both simulations as well as real data showed that our k-means clustering is no different than the typical frailty clustering even under different situations of varied case rates and censoring. It appeared our k-means algorithm could be a trustworthy mechanism of creating groups from data when no grouping term exists for including in a frailty term in a survival model or comparing to an existing grouping variable available in the current data to use in a frailty model.


Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirza Naveed Shahzad ◽  
Ehsan Ullah ◽  
Abid Hussanan

One of the most prominent statistical distributions is the Weibull distribution. The recent modifications in this distribution have enhanced its application but only in specific fields. To introduce a more generalized Weibull distribution, in this work beta exponentiated modified Weibull distribution is established. This distribution consolidate the exponential, skewed and symmetric shapes into one density. The proposed distribution also contains nineteen lifetime distributions as a special case, which shows the flexibility of the distribution. The statistical properties of the proposed model are derived and discussed, including reliability analysis and order statistics. The hazard function of the proposed distribution can have a unimodal, decreasing, bathtub, upside-down bathtub, and increasing shape that make it effective in reliability analysis. The parameters of the proposed model are evaluated by maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods. The significance of the beta exponentiated modified Weibull distribution for modeling is illustrated by the study of real data. The numerical study indicates that the new proposed distribution gives better results than other comparable distributions.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Elinor Ytterstad

Heterogeneity between individuals has attracted attention in the literature of survival analysis for several decades. Widowed individuals also differ; some are more frail than others and thereby have a higher risk of dying. The traditional hazard rate in a survival model is a measure of population risk and does not provide direct information on the unobservable individual risk. A frailty model is developed and applied on a large Norwegian data set of 452 788 widowed individuals. The model seemed to fit the data well, for both widowers and widows in all age groups. The random frailty term in the model is significant, meaning that widowed persons may have individual hazard rates.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 209-222
Author(s):  
Philipp K. Görs ◽  
Henning Hummert ◽  
Anne Traum ◽  
Friedemann W. Nerdinger

Digitalization is a megatrend, but there is relatively little knowledge about its consequences for service work in general and specifically in knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS). We studied the impact of digitalization on psychological consequences for employees in tax consultancies as a special case of KIBS. We compare two tax consulting jobs with very different job demands, those of tax consultants (TCs) and assistant tax consultants (ATCs). The results show that the extent of digitalization at the workplace level for ATCs correlates significantly positively with their job satisfaction. For TCs, the same variable correlates positively with their work engagement. These positive effects of digitalization are mediated in the case of ATCs by the impact on important job characteristics. In the case of TCs, which already have very good working conditions, the impact is mediated by the positive effect on self-efficacy. Theoretical and practical consequences of these results are discussed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 1250
Author(s):  
Daniel Medina ◽  
Haoqing Li ◽  
Jordi Vilà-Valls ◽  
Pau Closas

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) play a key role in intelligent transportation systems such as autonomous driving or unmanned systems navigation. In such applications, it is fundamental to ensure a reliable precise positioning solution able to operate in harsh propagation conditions such as urban environments and under multipath and other disturbances. Exploiting carrier phase observations allows for precise positioning solutions at the complexity cost of resolving integer phase ambiguities, a procedure that is particularly affected by non-nominal conditions. This limits the applicability of conventional filtering techniques in challenging scenarios, and new robust solutions must be accounted for. This contribution deals with real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning and the design of robust filtering solutions for the associated mixed integer- and real-valued estimation problem. Families of Kalman filter (KF) approaches based on robust statistics and variational inference are explored, such as the generalized M-based KF or the variational-based KF, aiming to mitigate the impact of outliers or non-nominal measurement behaviors. The performance assessment under harsh propagation conditions is realized using a simulated scenario and real data from a measurement campaign. The proposed robust filtering solutions are shown to offer excellent resilience against outlying observations, with the variational-based KF showcasing the overall best performance in terms of Gaussian efficiency and robustness.


BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Wu ◽  
Yu-Chen Wang ◽  
Wen-Jie Luo ◽  
Bo-Dai ◽  
Ding-Wei Ye ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Primary urethral carcinoma (PUC) is a rare genitourinary malignancy with a relatively poor prognosis. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of surgery on survival of patients diagnosed with PUC. Methods A total of 1544 PUC patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 were identified based on the SEER database. The Kaplan-Meier estimate and the Fine and Gray competing risks analysis were performed to assess overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM). The multivariate Cox regression model and competing risks regression model were used to identify independent risk factors of OS and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Results The 5-yr OS was significantly better in patients who received either local therapy (39.8%) or radical surgery (44.7%) compared to patients receiving no surgery of the primary site (21.5%) (p < 0.001). Both local therapy and radical surgery were each independently associated with decreased CSM, with predicted 5-yr cumulative incidence of 45.4 and 43.3%, respectively, compared to 64.7% for patients receiving no surgery of the primary site (p < 0.001). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that primary site surgery was independently associated with better OS (local therapy, p = 0.037; radical surgery, p < 0.001) and decreased CSM (p = 0.003). Similar results were noted regardless of age, sex, T stage, N stage, and AJCC prognostic groups based on subgroup analysis. However, patients with M1 disease who underwent primary site surgery did not exhibit any survival benefit. Conclusion Surgery for the primary tumor conferred a survival advantage in non-metastatic PUC patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Idika E. Okorie ◽  
Ricardo Moyo ◽  
Saralees Nadarajah

AbstractWe provide a survival analysis of cancer patients in Zimbabwe. Our results show that young cancer patients have lower but not significant hazard rate compared to old cancer patients. Male cancer patients have lower but not significant hazard rate compared to female cancer patients. Race and marital status are significant risk factors for cancer patients in Zimbabwe.


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