Bayesian networks application to forecast the national economies development taking into account the water factor

The influence of this factor on the development of national economies is studied. This study uses the Bayesian network, which illustrates the interaction of indicators of water supply and water use and includes nodes that are formally represented as vectors. The most valuable result of the modelling is not the general forecast obtained with the help of the model, but the structure of the network itself, which allows to identify connections within the model and explain the reason for the emerging interdependencies. modelling using Bayesian networks confirmed the fact that there is a direct relationship between GDP and water consumption and drainage. The obtained results confirm the possibility of achieving an increase in the overall GDP of the country with an increase in the amount of water resources used for production needs. However, this should be implemented in combination with a simultaneous reduction in the volume of return (wastewater) discharged into surface water bodies.

Modelling cascading failures in networks with the harmonic closeness

Many studies on cascading failures adopt the degree or the betweenness of a node to define its load. From a novel perspective, we propose an approach to obtain initial loads considering the harmonic closeness and the impact of neighboring nodes. Based on simulation results for different adjustable parameter θ, local parameter δ and proportion of attacked nodes f, it is found that in scale-free networks (SF networks), small-world networks (SW networks) and Erdos-Renyi networks (ER networks), there exists a negative correlation between optimal θ and δ. By the removal of the low load node, cascading failures are more likely to occur in some cases. In addition, we find a valuable result that our method yields better performance compared with other methods in SF networks with an arbitrary f, SW and ER networks with large f. Moreover, the method concerning the harmonic closeness makes these three model networks more robust for different average degrees. Finally, we perform the simulations on twenty real networks, whose results verify that our method is also effective to distribute the initial load in different real networks.

Influence of public transport ergonomic features on passenger's functional state

The article means an analysis of the passenger transport services quality issue. Researches of public transport routes ergonomic features and their influence on a passenger functional condition are provided. The analysis of such indicators as cabin occupancy rate, noise level, vibration, and acceleration was carried out. Mathematical dependences of the passenger functional condition change considering vehicles ergonomic features were constructed. Threshold values of passenger compartment microclimate, providing the stress index normative values were determined. The most valuable result of the study is a comparative assessment of each type of public transport in terms of comfort and obtaining threshold values of noise, vibration, and acceleration which are acceptable for the normal passenger’s functional condition.

Competing Risks Models for an Enterprises Duration on the Market

Research background: Enterprises are an important element of the economy, which explains that the analysis of their duration on the market is an important and willingly undertaken research topic. In the case of complex problems like this, considering only one type of event, which ends the duration, is often insufficient for full understanding.Purpose: In this paper there is an analysis of the duration of enterprises on the market, taking into account various reasons for the termination of their business activity as well as their characteristics.Research methodology: A survival analysis can be used to study duration on the market. However, the possibility of considering the waiting time for only one type of event is its important limitation. One solution is to use competing risks. Various competing risks models (naive Kaplan-Meier estimator, subdistribution model, subhazard and cause-specific hazard) are presented and compared with an indication of their advantages and weakness.Results: The competing risks models are estimated to investigate the impact of the causes of an enterprises liquidation on duration distribution. The greatest risk concerns enterprises with a natural person as the owner (regardless of the reason of failure). For each of the competing risks, it is also indicated that there is a section of activity which adversely affects the ability of firms to survive on the market.Novelty: A valuable result is considering the reasons for activity termination in the duration analysis for enterprises from the Mazowieckie Voivodeship.

A WELCOME BREAKTHROUGH OR A CONNECTOR OF THE (IN)COMPATIBLE: LANGUAGE CORPORA AS A SEGMENT IN ENGLISH LEXICOLOGY CLASSES

The necessity of studying the use of language corpora in foreign language teaching at the university level as a possible connector with contemporary scientific and research trends is intensified by the very need to bring the universities in the Republic of Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina closer to the regional and European scientific and research networks as well as to profile them within the aforementioned academic space. Efforts to set the corpus linguistic theoretical and practical posits as the basis of contemporary interdisciplinary linguistic research in the educational practices are aimed at emphasising the need to redesign some of the courses in the foreign language departments where students and teachers have expressed a desire and an interest in learning about this approach to the applied linguistic practice. The paper presents the results of a project aimed at familiarising students with the corpus studies and fundamentals of corpus linguistics, as well as with working independently on the selected corpora with the goal to achieve learning outcomes that could not have been previously included in teaching in the first cycle of academic studies. The paper primarily focuses on the challenges and experience gained through the introduction of the corpus studies within the English lexicology classes. Challenges faced by the teacher during the presentation of the corpus linguistic analysis, students’ disinterestedness for the linguistic theoretical and practical research, the lack of literature and practical tools, as well as the limited time and content action framework, have been overcome nevertheless, which is evident from the students’ positive feedback. The most valuable result is the actual raising awareness of students as far as the importance of their role as active participants in the realisation of teaching process outcomes is concerned - the process which is expected to possess not only an educational function but also to create a practitioner who will be able to respond to the challenges of the contemporary job market.

Naḥwa Muqtaraḥ Tajdīdī fī Ta‘līm al-I‘rāb li-al-Nāṭiqīn bi-Ghayr al-‘Arabīyah

There were many complaints about the difficulty of grammar, both old and new, especially among learners of non-Arabic native speakers. Thus, it should be facilitated as a legitimate requirement and based on an educational basis. It is required only if things are difficult. Hence, it was necessary to propose a enhanced model for the inherited declension (i‘rāb), which is able to be expanded later for application in classrooms. There is no doubt that there is no magical way or secret idea for the students, which leads them directly to the desired goal, which is the composition ability of their sound pronunciation, and evaluate their tongues on the sound, but access to that valuable result is a combination of many factors enumerated research in the next pages. The research presented descriptive analytical, ends with exercises on what was proposed. The goal is clear, and the way to it is in the content (selection - arrangement - gradient), and then comes the good training based on the grounds of combining comprehensiveness and ease. If this is achieved, research has become important in that it is a cycle of facilitation, and an idea of ​​the development ideas sought by the institutions concerned with educational curricula and development.

POINT CLOUD GENERATION OF A BUILDING FROM CLOSE RANGE THERMAL IMAGES

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Thermal inspection of a building is a very important part of facility management. This paper presents the methodology how to capture thermal images on a case of a family house, how to process thermal images using current photogrammetric method and how to achieve point cloud where each point is enhanced by information about temperature. This enhanced point cloud could be data for BIM or GIS and could be a valuable result for facility managers where they can detect thermal leaks or anomalies. Due to the point cloud, the thermal leaks or anomalies could be easily located and described. The accuracy of the point cloud is tested by check points and the resulted point cloud is compared with point cloud gathered by a laser scanner. The last part of the paper is devoted to a discussion about the results and outputs of the photogrammetric processing of thermal images.</p>

منهج تطويري مقترح في تعليم الإعراب للناطقين بغير العربية: الجملة في كتب النحو الحديثة نموذجاً / proposed Developmental method in teaching i‘rab to Non-Speakers of Arabic: Sentence in Modern Arabic Grammar Books as case study

ملخص البحث: تعددت الشكاوى من صعوبة النحو قديماً وحديثاً؛ وبخاصة من متعلميه من الناطقين بغير العربية؛ إذ إن التيسير مطلب شرعي وأساسي تعليمياً، ولا يطلب إلا إذا استصعبت الأشياء، ومن هنا كان من الواجب اقتراح نموذج تطويري للإعراب الموروث ابتداء، وقابل للتطوير لاحقاً؛ ويمكن تطبيقه في قاعات الدرس، واتبعت الدراسة المنهج الوصفي التحليلي، وهدفت إلى تيسير النحو للناشئة الذي أصبح من الأمور الضرورية والحتمية التي لا مناص منها. توصلت الدراسة إلى ما يأتي: الأصل من تعليم النحو هو المحاكاة والتقليد، وليس الحفظ والترديد، وأن مهارة الإعراب تكتسب بالتدرب على العلاقة بين الكلمات، وليس على ترتيبها في الجملة، وصعوبة العربية تعود إلى طريقة عرض النحويين لقواعدها، وامتلاؤها بالجدل والخلافات العقيمة، وأن دراسة التراكيب في المراحل المبكرة لذو أثر كبير في نماء ذوق الطلبة وتنمية قدراتهم اللغوية، ويجب التفرقة بين النحو بمفهوم تقويم اللسان من اللحن، ومفهومه الذي يبحث عن العلل والأسباب والعوامل. الكلمات المفتاحية: النحو العربي-الناطقون بغير العربية-تيسير النحو-الإعراب-النحو الحديث. Abstract There were many complaints about the difficulty of grammar, in the past and present, especially among learners of non-Arabic native speakers. Thus, it should be facilitated as a important requirement and based on an educational basis, as it is required only if things are difficult. Hence, it was necessary to propose an enhanced model for the inherited declension, which is able to be expanded later for application in classrooms. There is no doubt that there is no magical way or secret idea for the students, which leads them directly to the desired goal, which is the composition ability of their sound pronunciation, and evaluate their tongues on the sound, but access to that valuable result is a combination of many factors enumerated research in this paper. The research presented descriptive analytical, ends with exercises on what was proposed. The goal is clear, and the way to it is in the content selection - arrangement - gradually, and then comes the good training based on the grounds of combining comprehensiveness and ease. If this achieved, research has become important in that it is a cycle of facilitation, and an idea of ​​the development ideas sought by the institutions concerned with educational curricula and development. Keywords: Arabic grammar, non-Arabic speakers, grammar facilitation, expression, modern grammar Abstrak Terdapat banyak aduan mengenai kesukaran tatabahasa, baik yang lama atau baru, terutamanya di kalangan pelajar penutur asli bukan Arab. Oleh itu, isu ini merupakan satu keperluan yang penting berdasarkan kepada asas-asas pembelajaran di mana ianya hanya diperlukan dalam situasi sukar. Oleh itu, adalah perlu untuk mencadangkan model pembelajaran ‘irab’ yang dipertingkatkan untuk mengatasi masalah sedia ada, yang dapat diperluaskan kemudiannya untuk aplikasi dalam bilik-bilik darjah. Tidak menjadi keraguan bahawa tidak ada cara ajaib atau idea rahsia untuk pelajar, yang dapat membawa mereka mencapai matlamat yang diinginkan, yang merupakan keupayaan komposisi sebutan suara, menilai lidah mereka pada sebutan, tetapi hasil yang berjaya itu adalah gabungan banyak faktor yang dihuraikan dalam artikel ini. Kajian ini mengggunakan analisis deskriptif yang berakhir dengan metod latihan yang dicadangkan. Matlamatnya adalah jelas yang tertera dalam kandungan modul pemilihan - susunan - berperingkat, diikuti oleh latihan yang baik berdasarkan justifikasi gabungan secara menyeluruh dan mudah. Jika objektif modul ini dapat dicapai, kajian ini mempunyai manfaat bagi memudahkan dan mengembangkan kurikulum pengajaran yang dicari oleh institusi pendidikan Kata kunci: Tatabahasa Arab, penutur bukan bahasa Arab, memudahkan tatabahasa, ungkapan, tatabahasa moden.

AN EVALUATION OF LEARNING STRATEGIES IN STUDYING TO PLAY THE SOLFEGGIO BY CARL PHILIPP EMANUEL BACH

In this research, an evaluation was made of “study styles” within the framework of the Weinstein/Mayer learning strategies, which could be applied by students within their personal study periods of the Solfeggio by Emanuel Bach. In recent years, learning strategies have started to become widespread as an important area because they are a guide for students to form and evaluate their own learning situations. Therefore, the evaluation of piano training within musical instrument education will provide a valuable result. The aim of this study was for students to be aware of their own learning paths within their personal study processes and to be a guide at the point of forming ‘study styles’. To achieve this, technical analysis was made of the work, and as a result of this analysis, the work was separated into 5 technical motifs. The study styles produced by the researcher directed to main theme motif were grouped within the framework of Weinstein/Mayer learning strategies. As a result of the research, ‘study styles’ were presented as an option which could be selected by students in their personal piano practice periods according to their own learning status. These study styles can be applied to every work being studied. Keywords: Carl Phillip Emanuel Bach, Weinstein and Mayer, Piano, Learning Strategies, Study Styles

Best Prophylactic Strategy in Groups at Risk of Intraoperative Floppy Iris Syndrome Development: Comparison Between Atropine Instillation and Adrenaline Intracameral Injection

Background: Intraoperative Floppy Iris Syndrome (IFIS) is an important cause of surgical complications and iris defects in patients undergoing phacoemulsification that were treated with selective subtype α1A receptor antagonists for a long period of time. To date, no definitive preventive strategy has emerged, yet. The need of prophylaxis is dictated by the high prevalence of males affected by benign prostatic hyperplasia undergoing cataract surgery. Objective: To identify the best prophylactic strategy in groups at risk of IFIS development by comparing two mydriatic treatments in course of phacoemulsification surgery. Methods: 81 eyes of 81 patients in treatment with Tamsulosin were enrolled in the study. 43 eyes were treated with atropine sulfate 1% while 38 eyes received an injection of mydriatic solution containing epinephrine in the anterior chamber. All phacoemulsifications were videotaped in order to assess the occurrence of IFIS and the severity of the syndrome. Results: The treatment group showed a statistically significant reduction (p = 0.0115) of floppy iris syndrome incidence, from 86.05% (37/43) of the atropine group to 60.53% (23/38). The analysis showed a reduction of IFIS mild form only, whereas the incidence of severe forms remained unchanged. Conclusions: We believe that IFIS may arise through two different mechanisms: pharmacological antagonism and anatomical modifications. Patients suffering from mild forms of the disease showed a statistically significant reduction of IFIS incidence after intraoperative prophylaxis due to epinephrine’s ability to displace Tamsulosin, resulting in the increase of iris tone when the disease is caused mainly by receptorial antagonism. On the contrary, prophylaxis does not deliver any valuable result in case of severe forms where the anatomical variations play a major role.