Is It Possible to Get out of the Economic Crisis in the Coming Years?

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Entrepreneurship Development ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Effective Policy

The paper is aimed to forecast how the crisis in the Russian economy is likely to evolve. The construction of econometric models of Russia’s economic dynamics for the period of 2000 to 2015 allows to predict, that in 2015-2019 the deep economic crisis is to be expected. During the crisis period the overall decline in production can reach 20%. The greatest decline in production is likely to occur in 2016-2017. In 2019-2020 stabilization or transition to growth of production can follow. Present crisis developments are by about 80% due to unfavorable institutional environment, being the result of the laws adopted. Thus the transition to economic growth even in 2019-2020 is quite questionable. As the authors argue, to overcome the crisis developments in the economy, it is needed to pursue more effective policy of building institutions, which would boost economic growth and economic development, as well as policies, aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship development, bringing in investments and expanding domestic demand.

Higher Education’s External Effects in Modern Russia’s Economy

10.12737/7806 ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Business Development ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
External Effects ◽  
The One

Econometric models of GDP’s crisis growth rates and factors of GDP’s recession rates have been received. The models allow predict the recession in Russia’s economy in 2015–2019. Decline in production during the crisis can reach 16–17%. Production decline duration can make 4–5 years. The crisis phenomena in economy at the level up to 80,7% have been caused by formation of adverse institutional environment under the influence of the laws adopted in 2003–2014. A new paradigm of economic policy is necessary for overcoming the crisis phenomena in economy, this policy is the one related to formation of institutions favoring to the economic growth and economic development, the policy aimed at the business development, at investment attraction, at domestic demand expansion.

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

scholarly journals Econometric models for estimating current and forecast values of the level of human capital development in the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 52-67
Author(s):  
Nina Baranova ◽  
Sergey Larin ◽  
Evgeny Khrustalyov
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Human Capital Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The Impact

Studies of factors of sustainable economic development in modern conditions are highly relevant for Russia due to the constant increase and tightening of sanctions restrictions. They have a negative impact on the introduction of innovative developments and economic growth, and reduce the competitiveness of Russian enterprises and their products on world markets. Human capital can become one of the key factors for countering sanctions restrictions, improving the efficiency of economic development and gaining additional competitive advantages for domestic enterprises and the economy as a whole. Assessing the impact of human capital on the sustainable development of the economy is difficult, since it is one of the specific forms of capital. When making appropriate measurements, economic scientists rely on a number of developed theoretical methods and practical tools that support them, which allow us to obtain fairly accurate values of the human capital development index (HDI) based on statistical data. First of all, this is the current UN methodology for calculating the HDI indicator, as well as modern software systems OriginPro-8.6 and Eviews-10.0, which have sufficiently advanced functionality for performing calculations. Russia today has all the necessary prerequisites and opportunities for progressive social and economic development. However, the formation of econometric models will help to timely determine the current and forecast values of the level of human capital development for individual enterprises, industries, and the country’s economy as a whole. This paper shows the practical application of the econometric tools of all the above approaches to obtain the calculated values of the HDI indicator for different time periods and different scenarios for the development of the Russian economy. The results obtained confirmed the high practical significance of the tools used and the acceptable accuracy of the calculations. However, the current and forecast values of the level of human capital development alone will not be able to ensure the effective development of the Russian economy. On the contrary, the effective use of human capital in the implementation of import substitution strategies and national projects will allow our country to become one of the world’s leading economic development countries.

scholarly journals Stimulating Domestic Demand as a Key Factor of Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-129
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova ◽  
Elena Yu. Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Right

World economy shows a high level of uncertainty. There are considerable risks of economic slowdown and stock market collapse. For many years, the Russian economy has been dependent on external factors. Recently, when anti-Russian sanctions are imposed, it is particularly important to find internal sources of growth, including domestic demand as the most significant factor. However, environment for the development of the Russian economy remains unfavourable due to high interest rates, volatile exchange rate, increasing tax rates, and ambiguous economic policy. Based on the analysis of regional statistics (including some regions of the Central Federal District), we confirmed the weak relationship between investments and gross regional product (GRP) revealed by other scientists. This may be the result of poor investment efficiency and its low multiplier effect. In this situation, the right choice of sectors with high multipliers and investment efficiency creates the potential for increasing domestic demand. Simultaneously, mechanisms for the expansion of resources ensuring regional economic growth play an important role. In this regard, we developed approaches aimed at the creation of conditions for the expansion of regional financial resources to support economic activity, domestic demand and economy in general, considering a social aspect of these processes. Some of the proposed mechanisms stimulate the participation of banks in financing economic processes, federal or regional bond issuance (the Bank of Russia would be the main buyer), etc. These proposals consider the experience of other countries in stimulating economic growth, including at the regional level. Financial regulators and relevant regional agencies can use the research results for developing economic policies.

Economic Development Sustainability of Russia’s Territories

10.12737/2611 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-11
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Belgorod Oblast ◽  
Krasnodar Krai ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
The City

Technique for assessment of economic development sustainability of Russia’s regions is provided. Methodologically the technique is based on diagnosing the loss of sustainability in economic growth and assessing the degree of instability. The authors propose to assess the degree of sustainability by such measure, as variance in the economy’s growth rate, while the risks of instable growth — by an index, reflecting relative variance in economic growth rates. Economic growth sustainability and dynamics for several RF administrative territories are assessed, including Belgorod oblast, Bryansk oblast, Volgograd oblast, Pskov oblast, the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, the Republic of Dagestan and Krasnodar krai. The estimates are based on statistics for the 2000—2011 years period. As is found out, different territories has different periods of sustainable and unsustainable development as well as different degrees of economic growth instability. In terms of economic development Belgorod oblast, the city of St. Petersburg, Krasnodar krai and the Republic of Dagestan are stable as compared to the growth of the overall Russian economy. Such territories, as Bryansk oblast, Volgograd oblast, Pskov oblast and the city of Moscow show instability of economic development as compared to the Russian economy as a whole. As correlation and regression analysis shows, indices of economic development instability significantly affect investments in the regional economy. Based on a small sample of administrative territories the authors show that instability of economic development is responsible for 40 per cent reduction in investments. Thus the conclusion is made that economic development instability is a rather significant factor of the territory’s investment climate.

Forecasting the Transition of the Economy of the Russian Federation to the Dominance of the Fifth Techno-Economic Paradigm

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Леонид Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Д. Ломовцев ◽  
D. Lomovcev ◽  
Елена Басовская ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Russian Federation

The purpose of the work was to assess the timing of the transition of the Russian economy and the economy of individual Russian regions to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. By constructing econometric models of economic dynamics, the timing of the beginning of the dominance of the fifth technoeconomic paradigm was estimated. The transition to the domination of the fifth techno-economic paradigm in the economy of the country can expected in 2040. The economy of individual regions has already made the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm. In the economy of a large part of the regions, the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm can expected in many years and decades. Estimates of the expected timeframe for the transition to the dominance of the fifth techno-economic paradigm obtained on basis of the assumption that the trends of economic development prevailing in 2001–2015 were preserved.

scholarly journals An Attempt to Assess the Quantitative Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth and Economic Development

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-30
Author(s):  
Mariusz Próchniak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Solow Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study aims at assessing to what extent institutional environment is responsible for worldwide differences in economic growth and economic development. To answer this question, we use an innovative approach based on a new concept of the institutions-augmented Solow model which is then estimated empirically using regression equations. The analysis covers 180 countries during the 1993-2012 period. The empirical analysis confirms a large positive impact of the quality of institutional environment on the level of economic development. The positive link has been evidenced for all five institutional indicators: two indices of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute), the governance indicator (World Bank), the democracy index (Freedom House), and the EBRD transition indicator for post-socialist countries. Differences in physical capital, human capital, and institutional environment explain about 70-75% of the worldwide differences in economic development. The institutions-augmented Solow model, however, performs slightly poorer in explaining differences in the rates of economic growth: only one institutional variable (index of economic freedom) has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. In terms of originality, this paper extends the theoretical analysis of the Solow model by including institutions, on the one hand, and shows a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of various institutional indicators on both the level of development and the pace of economic growth, on the other. The results bring important policy implications.

scholarly journals How the Legal Environment Affects the Structure of Employment

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 2005-2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Litzman ◽  
Luděk Kouba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Legal Environment ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Corruption Perception

The quality of the institutional environment is considered a crucial determinant of economic growth. Low quality of the formal institutional environment can slow down economic development via various mechanisms described in the literature. The present paper will analyse formal institutional factors leading to the structure of employment that Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1991) found to be associated with lower rate of economic growth. They assumed that a high proportion of lawyers in the country may be associated with slower economic development. Thus, the aim of the paper is to examine some of the parameters of institutional environment that can lead to such a distribution. Results show that quality of law measured by the World Bank (Doing Business database) and the Corruption Perception Index obtained from Transparency International may have some explanatory abilities regarding the structure of employment.

scholarly journals Prospects and Challenges of Entrepreneurship Development in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: An Overview

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 4-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zrar Mohsin Mohammadali ◽  
Sabir Sadiq Abdulkhaliq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Spiritual Support ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Efficient Technology ◽  
Entrepreneurship Development ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activities

Abstract Entrepreneurship as a driver of innovation and economic growth plays a key role in economic development and the appearance of knowledge and innovation-based economies. The most important effects of entrepreneurship development are increasing innovation, upgrading technology, increasing employment, producing technical knowledge, and generating income distribution at the community level, which can lead to increased national wealth and economic growth. At the moment, global developments are made entrepreneurship so important, and organizations need more innovation and entrepreneurship than ever before to adapt to new circumstances. In fact, in relation to entrepreneurship as the most important factor in economic development, organizations can gain more market share. The objectives of this study are to examine and overview the prospects and challenges of entrepreneurship in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. In this regard, it can be said that with the human resources available and the valuable experiences available in the field of entrepreneurship around the world, it is necessary to plan for entrepreneurship development in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). It is revealed in this study Iraqi Kurdistan is determined can be one of the top entrepreneurial centers in the region with the scientific ability of specialists, and the potential of human resources, flexible structure and efficient technology. This paper recommended some strategies to reform and removing barriers to entrepreneurship development in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq by using factors such as entrepreneurship development and appropriate culture building, job training, setting up small business development centers, sponsoring entrepreneurs, establishing the legal framework for entrepreneurial activities, and providing spiritual support to entrepreneurs can lead to social, economic and industrial development and the declines of unemployment.

scholarly journals PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN THE KURDISTAN REGION OF IRAQ: AN OVERVIEW

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zrar Mohsin Mohammadali ◽  
Sabir Sadiq Abdulkhaliq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Spiritual Support ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Efficient Technology ◽  
Entrepreneurship Development ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activities

Entrepreneurship as a driver of innovation and economic growth plays a key role in economic development and the appearance of knowledge and innovation-based economies. The most important effects of entrepreneurship development are increasing innovation, upgrading technology, increasing employment, producing technical knowledge, and generating income distribution at the community level, which can lead to increased national wealth and economic growth. At the moment, global developments are made entrepreneurship so important, and organizations need more innovation and entrepreneurship than ever before to adapt to new circumstances. In fact, in relation to entrepreneurship as the most important factor in economic development, organizations can gain more market share. The objectives of this study are to examine and overview the prospects and challenges of entrepreneurship in Iraq's Kurdistan region. In this regard, it can be said that with the human resources available and the valuable experiences available in the field of entrepreneurship around the world, it is necessary to plan for entrepreneurship development in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). It is revealed in this study Iraqi Kurdistan is determined can be one of the top entrepreneurial centers in the region with the scientific ability of specialists, and the potential of human resources, flexible structure and efficient technology. This paper recommended some strategies to reform and removing barriers to entrepreneurship development in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq by using factors such as entrepreneurship development and appropriate culture building, job training, setting up small business development centers, sponsoring entrepreneurs, establishing the legal framework for entrepreneurial activities, and providing spiritual support to entrepreneurs can lead to social, economic and industrial development and the declines of unemployment.

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