scholarly journals Stimulating Domestic Demand as a Key Factor of Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-129
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova ◽  
Elena Yu. Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Right

World economy shows a high level of uncertainty. There are considerable risks of economic slowdown and stock market collapse. For many years, the Russian economy has been dependent on external factors. Recently, when anti-Russian sanctions are imposed, it is particularly important to find internal sources of growth, including domestic demand as the most significant factor. However, environment for the development of the Russian economy remains unfavourable due to high interest rates, volatile exchange rate, increasing tax rates, and ambiguous economic policy. Based on the analysis of regional statistics (including some regions of the Central Federal District), we confirmed the weak relationship between investments and gross regional product (GRP) revealed by other scientists. This may be the result of poor investment efficiency and its low multiplier effect. In this situation, the right choice of sectors with high multipliers and investment efficiency creates the potential for increasing domestic demand. Simultaneously, mechanisms for the expansion of resources ensuring regional economic growth play an important role. In this regard, we developed approaches aimed at the creation of conditions for the expansion of regional financial resources to support economic activity, domestic demand and economy in general, considering a social aspect of these processes. Some of the proposed mechanisms stimulate the participation of banks in financing economic processes, federal or regional bond issuance (the Bank of Russia would be the main buyer), etc. These proposals consider the experience of other countries in stimulating economic growth, including at the regional level. Financial regulators and relevant regional agencies can use the research results for developing economic policies.

The world and Russia: Inflation is minimal, economic growth is slowing, risks are rising

2019 ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail V. Ershov ◽  
Anna S. Tanasova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
New Combination ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Money Creation ◽  
Main Factors

Russian economy has reached the low level of inflation, but economic growth has not accelerated. Moreover, according to official forecasts, in the following years it will still be low. The article concludes that domestic demand, which is one of the main factors of growth, is significantly constrained by monetary, budgetary and fiscal spheres. The situation in the Russian economy is still hampered by the decline of the world economic growth. The prospects of financial markets are highly uncertain. This increases the possibility of crisis in the world. Leading countries widely use non-traditional measures to support their economies in the similar environment. In the world economy as well as in Russia a principally new combination of factors has emerged, which create specific features of economic growth. It requires special set of measures to stimulate such growth. The article proves that Russian regulators have large unused potential to stimulate growth. It includes monetization, long-money creation, budget and tax stimuli. It is important that the instruments, which will be used, should be based on domestic mechanisms. This will strengthen financial basis of the economy and may encourage economic growth. Some specific suggestions as to their use are made.

scholarly journals POPULATION INCOME DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE NORTH CAUCASIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT

Kavkaz-forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 113-123
Author(s):  
М.Р. КУЛОВА ◽  
Е.Ю. ИВАНОВА ◽  
Т.Ю. ИТАРОВА
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Significant Discrepancy ◽  
The North ◽  
Regional Product

В статье рассматриваются особенности взаимосвязи, инертность и изменчивость динамики доходов населения и показателей валового регионального продукта в субъектах Северо-Кавказского федерального округа. В условиях стагнации российской экономики в последние годы проблема роста валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в депрессивных регионах Северного Кавказа приобретает особую значимость. Проведенный авторами корреляционный анализ доходов населения и валового регионального продукта за 2000-2018 гг. методом Пирсона выявил, что, в отличие от российских регионов в целом с их достаточно сильной связью между валовым региональным продуктом и доходами населения, в регионах Северного Кавказа наблюдалось очень значительное расхождение в коэффициентах корреляции. В частности, в Северной Осетии в течение 2011-2015 гг. экономический рост и доходы населения находились в состоянии слабой зависимости, а уже в 2015-2018 гг. эта связка стала почти идеальной, когда коэффициент корреляции достиг 0,99. Резкие скачки в тесноте связей ВРП и доходов населения имели место в Дагестане, Карачаево-Черкессии, в то время как относительно стабильная динамика коэффициентов корреляции ВРП с доходами была характерна для Ингушетии. В Кабардино-Балкарии и Ставропольском крае, где были отмечены низкие и отрицательные значения коэффициентов корреляции, в динамике доходов населения и экономическим ростом проявилась либо слабая связь, либо обратная связь, когда увеличение одной переменной приводит к уменьшению другой. В целом, разнонаправленность динамики показателей валового регионального продукта и доходов населения в регионах СКФО отражает неэффективность экономической политики и необходимость более дифференцированного подхода к отдельным территориям макрорегиона. The article discusses the features of the relationship, inertia and variability of the dynamics of household income and gross regional product indicators in the subjects of the North Caucasian Federal District. In the context of the stagnation of the Russian economy in recent years, the problem of the growth of GRP and income of the population in the depressed regions of the North Caucasus is of particular importance. The authors' correlation analysis of the population's income and the gross regional product for 2000-2018 according to Pearson method revealed that, in contrast to the Russian regions as a whole with their rather strong relationship between the gross regional product and the population's income, there was a very significant discrepancy in the correlation coefficients in the regions of the North Caucasus. In particular, in North Ossetia, during 2011-2015, economic growth and income of the population were in a state of weakened mutual dependence, and already in 2015-2018, this link became almost perfect, when the correlation coefficient reached 0.99. Sharp changes in the close relationship between GRP and income of the population occurred in Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia, while the relatively stable dynamics of the correlation coefficients of GRP with income was characteristic of Ingushetia. In Kabardino-Balkaria and Stavropol Krai, where low and negative values of correlation coefficients were noted, the dynamics of household income and economic growth showed either a weak relationship or an inverse relationship, when an increase in one variable leads to a decrease in the other. In general, the divergence of the dynamics of the gross regional product and income indicators in the regions of the NCFD reflects the inefficiency of economic policy and the need for a more differentiated approach to individual territories of the macroregion.

scholarly journals The Effect of Investment Efficiency toward Economic Growth in South Sumatera and Jambi Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-80
Author(s):  
Feny Marissa ◽  
Anna Yulianita ◽  
Annisa Fitriyah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Output Ratio ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Relationship

The study aims to measure and compare the efficiency level of investment to boost economic growth in South Sumatera and Jambi Province. This study use quantitative approach with time series data between 2007 to 2016 from the Central Bureau of Statistic (BPS) and publication related to the study. The efficiency of investment was measured by Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) approach and analyzed using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study indicates that (1) the relationship between investment efficiency  which measured by ICOR approach and economic growth of each provinces (South Sumatera and Jambi) is negative; (2) this research show that investment efficiency in Jambi Province give more effect to its economic growth than South Sumatera and  Jambi Province has grown better than South Sumatera Province in the same development stage without an increase in the proportion of investment to Gross Domestic Regional Product. 

scholarly journals Analysis and Strategies for Securing Sanitary and Epidemiological Welfare of the Population of Siberia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 156-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. F. Savchenkov ◽  
N. V. Efimova
Keyword(s):  
Federal District ◽  
Medical Rehabilitation ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
Significant Factors

Priorities and directions of development of the Russian economy are connected with the eastern territories. The purpose of the study is to the identify key problems and substantiate indicators of the hygienic and epidemiological welfare of the population of Siberia. Two blocks of characteristics (“public health” and “environment”) are considered in dynamics for 5 years in the context of the subjects of the Siberian Federal District. Four groups of territories differed in terms of the incidence rate and the average life expectancy (ALE) using cluster analysis. It is shown that ALE depends on economic indicators. The incidence is associated with the amount of gross pollutant emissions in the atmospheric air (r = 0.83–0.96; p < 0.001). The assessment of the influence of the habitat on the health of the population at the level of the macroregion allowed to substantiate the hierarchy of the most significant factors. More than 98 % of the environmentally related component of morbidity is associated with the amount of gross emissions of harmful substances in the air (the contribution was 69 %), the provision of the population with doctors (12.6 %) and inpatient beds (6.7 %), the gross regional product (6.5 %), clean water consumption (3 %) and average per capita income (0.8 %). In conclusion, for the successful implementation of preventive strategies, an important stage is the development of a set of solutions for the effective use of resources available in the region (financial, personnel, medical, rehabilitation).

Problems in the Russian Economy Sectors' Development

2004 ◽  
pp. 86-95
Author(s):  
T. Eryomina ◽  
V. Matyatina ◽  
Yu. Plushchevskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Government Sector ◽  
General Government ◽  
Changing Role

The article focuses on the development of major sectors of the Russian economy — non-financial corporations, households, general government sector — after the 1998 financial crisis. Serious problems in functioning of the non-financial enterprises sector limiting the economic growth potential are revealed. Disbalances in financial flows among major sectors of the Russian economy are pointed out. The analysis of the changing role of the general government sector in the economy in 1999-2003 is provided. The conclusion on the necessity of changing the state economic policies to promote economic development is drawn.

Public investment efficiency and monetary policy consequences: The case of investment ratio enhancing policy in Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-39
Author(s):  
S. A. Vlasov ◽  
A. A. Sinyakov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Investment Rate ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Key Features

The article analyzes the effects of measures to raise the investment rate from 21% to 25% of GDP up to 2024 on GDP growth and monetary policy. We conduct the analysis using an econometric general equilibrium model that reflects key features of the Russian economy. Achieving the target sequentially implies adding about 14 p. p. of GDP of public and/or private investment over 2019—2024 compared to the unchanged investment rate scenario. We find raising private investment to be the most efficient for stimulating GDP growth up to 2024. Among sources of public investment funding, using the sovereign wealth fund gives the highest GDP growth up to 2024. Nevertheless, given low public investment efficiency, a significant fraction of GDP growth becomes inflationary in this case. If the central bank minimizes the risk of inflation, inefficient public investment can lead the economy to equilibrium with higher private interest rates.

On the mechanisms of growth of the Russian economy under conditions of worsening financial problems in the world

2016 ◽  
pp. 5-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
The World ◽  
International Banks ◽  
Government Interference

Many challenges that have recently emerged in the world economy still exist. Moreover, new problems have appeared. Now we can see at the same time low economic growth in many countries, rising public debts, overheating of stock markets. The fact that alongside with negative interest rates financial resources are not in demand becomes more obvious. Major international banks meet rising problems again. In this environment government interference to support economic players and different markets is getting more pervasive.

Тhe impact of regional investment interaction on economic growth potential of the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin Pozdnyakov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gross Regional Product ◽  
Central Federal District ◽  
Regional Investment ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Regional Product

The purpose of the monography is to elaborate the concept of the development of inter-regional investment cooperation by identifying the trends and features of its impact on the economic growth potential of the macro-region. The monography consists of the introduction, three chapters, conclusion and applications, as well as a list of references. The first chapter substantiates theoretical approaches to the essence, conditions and factors of regional development and the content of interregional investment cooperation in the current socio-economic conditions, analyzes the features of institutional design and the mechanisms for regulating regional cooperation for economic growth and development purposes, taking into account the Russian and foreign experience on the example of the European Union. The second chapter, basing on the economic analysis, identifies the trends in the development of the regions of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation in terms of emerging macro-regions. A model has been proposed to assess the extent of the region’s economy’s involvement in inter-regional relations, which would allow to determine the dependence of variables such as interregional exchange, investment and gross regional product. Using mathematical modeling tools, the impact of these factors on the growth of the gross regional product of the Central Federal District of Russia, as well as its two regions — Moscow and Belgorod region — was evaluated. The third chapter identifies the prospects for the development of interregional investment cooperation in the Central Black Earth macro-region of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation. The concept of developing inter-regional investment cooperation in the macro-region within the framework of the creation of a network of territories ahead of socioeconomic development (PSEDA) has been developed. The mechanism of inter-regional investment cooperation in the framework of the creation and development of the territories ahead of socio-economic development (PSEDA) has been adapted in order to form the points of economic growth in the macro-region. The main text of the monography is laid out on 234 pages and is illustrated with 21 drawings and 40 tables. The monography contains 4 applications. The references list includes 144 units.

Is It Possible to Get out of the Economic Crisis in the Coming Years?

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Басовский ◽  
Leonid Basovskiy ◽  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Econometric Models ◽  
Entrepreneurship Development ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Effective Policy

The paper is aimed to forecast how the crisis in the Russian economy is likely to evolve. The construction of econometric models of Russia’s economic dynamics for the period of 2000 to 2015 allows to predict, that in 2015-2019 the deep economic crisis is to be expected. During the crisis period the overall decline in production can reach 20%. The greatest decline in production is likely to occur in 2016-2017. In 2019-2020 stabilization or transition to growth of production can follow. Present crisis developments are by about 80% due to unfavorable institutional environment, being the result of the laws adopted. Thus the transition to economic growth even in 2019-2020 is quite questionable. As the authors argue, to overcome the crisis developments in the economy, it is needed to pursue more effective policy of building institutions, which would boost economic growth and economic development, as well as policies, aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship development, bringing in investments and expanding domestic demand.

scholarly journals The Character and Effects of Sanctions Imposed on Russia in Consequence of Aggression Against Ukraine

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Żukowska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Global Demand

The economic sanctions imposed on Russia have adversely affected the development of the Russian economy. Russia’s GDP has decreased, GDP growth rate has slowed down, global demand has declined, prices and interest rates have risen. Inflation has increased, the rouble has become devalued, the amount of foreign exchange reserves has gone down, and life quality of Russian citizens has deteriorated. The sanctions of the Western states against Russia as well as the sanctions reciprocally applied by Russia against the broadly understood foreign countries have negatively influenced the economies of many Western states which have also been affected by worse conditions of economic growth after 2014.

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