Prospects for Cooperation Between Russia and Syria in Various Scenarios of Military Conflict Development

2021 ◽  
pp. 50-55
Author(s):  
Alheder Haled
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Relationship

The paper is devoted to determining the prospects for cooperation between Russia and the Syrian Arab Republic in various scenarios of military conflicts. In order to identify the relationship between the success of the country's foreign economic policy and the military conflicts waged on its territory, a study was conducted of such indicators of Syria as: the growth rate of the peace index and the GDP growth rate. A strong inverse correlation is revealed, which means that the level of political situation and peace in the state determines the efficiency of the economy. In view of this, various scenarios of the development of the military conflict in Syria have been studied: at the initial stage, at the stage of active hostilities, at the present stage of overcoming the crisis. The last stage involves four different scenarios for the development of a military conflict, including a local nature and a protracted nature with the involvement of other countries of the world. Options for developing cooperation between Russia and Syria have been identified for each scenario. Taking into account the assessment of the international political situation, the two most likely scenarios for further military events in Syria are identified, and the prospects for cooperation between Russia and Syria in these conditions are outlined.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals Responses of a Pre-hospital Emergency Medical Service During Military Conflict Versus COVID-19: A Retrospective Comparative Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Jaffe ◽  
Roman Sonkin ◽  
Evan Avraham Alpert ◽  
Erik Zerath
Keyword(s):  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Motor Vehicle Collisions ◽  
Vehicle Collisions ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
Comparative Cohort Study ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Military ◽  
Conflict Period

ABSTRACT Background Decreases in routine healthcare practices have been shown to occur during disasters. However, research regarding the impacts of natural disasters, pandemics, or military conflicts on emergency medical services (EMS) is scarce. Objectives This study assessed the impact of a military conflict versus the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on a national EMS organization in terms of responses to overall daily emergencies, medical illnesses, motor vehicle collisions, and other injuries. Methods This retrospective comparative cohort study assessed daily routine emergency ambulance calls to Magen David Adom (MDA), Israel’s national EMS organization. This included overall emergency calls as well as those related to medical illnesses, motor vehicle collisions (MVCs), and other injuries. All data were obtained from the MDA command and control database. During the military conflict Operation Protective Edge (2014), the civilian population was subjected to intensive rocket attacks for 24 days, followed by 26 days of a progressive withdrawal of operations and then to a post-conflict period. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (March-April 2020), the population was subjected to 32 days of total lockdown, followed by 27 days of progressive relief of confinement, and then to a post-lockdown period. Results The total number of emergency calls in this study was 330,430. During the conflict, the mean number of daily calls decreased, followed by an increase during Relief and Post-Conflict with higher values in Post-Conflict than in Pre-Conflict. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a decrease in the mean daily number of calls during Lockdown. It remained low during Relief and increased during Post-Lockdown. However, it remained lower in Post-Lockdown than during Pre-Lockdown. Calls related to medical illnesses decreased during the conflict and during the lockdown. The post-conflict period was characterized by a similar baseline call magnitude but not during the post-lockdown period. Decreases in calls for MVC and other injuries were significant during the lockdown but not during the military conflict. Post-lockdown was accompanied by return to baseline call volumes for MVC, whereas calls for other injuries increased above baseline both after the lockdown and military conflict. Conclusion This study shows decreasing trends in routine daily calls for EMS during both Operation Protective Edge and COVID-19. However, different patterns of needs for EMS were evidenced for medical illnesses, MVC, or calls concerning other injuries. These results are instrumental for managing the operational demands of EMS during military conflicts and pandemics.

scholarly journals Domestic Debt and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. p207
Author(s):  
Josephat Lotto ◽  
Catherine T. Mmari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

The main objective of this paper was to examine the impact of domestic debt on economic growth in Tanzania for the period 1990 to 2015 using Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method to estimate the effects. The study finds that there is an inverse but insignificant relationship between domestic debt and the economic growth of Tanzania as measured by GDP annual growth. The inverse relationship between domestic debt and GDP may be caused by different factors such as; increased trend in domestic borrowing, government lenders’ profile dominated by commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions which promotes the “crowding out” effect; the nature of the instruments used by the government ; the improper use of the domestic borrowed funds which may include funding budgetary deficits, paying up principal and matured obligations on debt, developing financial markets as well as fund other government operations. Other control variables relate with the GDP as predicted. For example, Inflation (INF) has a negative effect on the GDP growth rate, but the relationship is not statistically significant, while gross capital formation (GCF) has a positive statistically significant effect on GDP growth rate. Furthermore, foreign direct investment (FDI) showed a positive effect on the GDP growth rate and export (X) has a positive effect on GDP growth rate, and the relationship is statistically significant explaining that if a country applied an export-led growth economic strategy it enjoys the gains of participating in the world market. This means that an increase in export stimulates demand for goods which leads to increase in output, and as a country’s output increases, the economic performance also takes a similar trend. Finally, government expenditure (GE) had a negative effect on the GDP growth rate which may be explained by the increased government expenditures which are funded by either tax or borrowing. Therefore, what is required for countries like Tanzania is to have better debt management strategies as well as prudential financial management while maintaining to remain within the internationally acceptable debt level of 45% of GDP and maintain a GDP growth rate of not less than 5%. It is important for the country to realize from where to borrow from, the tenure, the risks involved and limitations to borrowing and thus set the right balance of combination of both kinds of debt. Another requirement is to properly utilize the borrowed funds. The central government’s objective should be to use the funds in more development-oriented projects that bring positive returns to the economic development.  The government should not only create a right environment and policies for investment to attract investment from domestic and foreign sources but also be cautious about the kind of investments that the foreign investors make.

scholarly journals INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Jelena Bjelić
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Total Investment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

An investment is a factor of the economic growth and a mandatory constituent in the majority of development models. This study analyzes the impact of the gross investment on the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) for the period 2005-2017, and provides the assessment of the interdependence of investment and a newly added value in industry. The relationship between the foreign investment and the economic growth is also included. The dependent variables are the GDP growth rate and the added value in industry (as % of GDP). The independent variables are the total investment rate (as % of GDP) and the foreign investment rate (as % of GDP). The hypothesis is that the gross investment and the foreign investment are positively correlated with the GDP growth rate. The investments contribute to a higher newly added value in industry. The results show that the gross investment is a significant factor of the economic growth because there is a high significance and positive correlation between the observed variables (the total investment and the GDP growth). This shows that the investment growth stimulates the economic growth in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the dynamic analysis as an investment-GDP ratio shows oscillations. The impact of investments on the share of the newly added value in industry is insignificant and negative. The results of the dynamic analysis are similar. The relationship between the variables of the foreign investment rates and the GDP growth is significant and positive. Although the foreign investments are not sufficient, they still contribute, to a certain extent, to the economic growth of BiH.

scholarly journals Escalation of Military Conflict Between India and Pakistan in The Post Lahore Declaration (1999 – 2019): Security Dilemma Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 219
Author(s):  
Impiani Impiani
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Main Argument ◽  
Security Dilemma ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Conflict Escalation ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
The Military

This paper describes the military conflict escalation between India and Pakistan in the period after 1999 Lahore Declaration. After several major wars, military conflicts between the two countries continued to this day. Previous studies on the India-Pakistan conflict only discussed the causes of this conflict and efforts to resolve conflicts. The studies are divided into three major perspectives, namely; security, domestic politics, and political economy, but none has explained how this military conflict is relatively lasting. Using security dilemma as an analytical framework, this paper will explain the variables of the security dilemma that have contributed to the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. The security dilemma creates a circumstance where offensive action preferable by both states rather than defensive efforts. The main argument of this paper s that India and Pakistan see each other's behavior -such as the development of military defense capability, nuclear weaponry development, and alliance trends- as threats so that they are always remains in the security dilemma situation.

scholarly journals DETERMINATION OF THE LEADING TYPE OF IMPROVEMENTS OF SERVICEMANTS IN MODERN MILITARY CONFLICTS

2021 ◽  
pp. 128-133
Author(s):  
I. P. Khomenko ◽  
K. V. Gumeniuk ◽  
S. O. Korol ◽  
E. V. Tsema ◽  
R. М. Mikhaylusov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Information ◽  
Combat Trauma ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Civilian Population ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Number Of Components ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
The Military ◽  
Further Development

Summary. The results of studying the main damaging factors of servicemen, it is necessary to consider a large number of components of a military conflict. The problem is that in some conflicts there is little data on the loss ratio. Ancient wars were not as familiar as modern ones. Data on ancient wars are sometimes exaggerated, or vice versa, in order to prevent a catastrophe in the military and political sense, they are underestimated. The study of the structure of combat trauma remains a very topical topic. In light of the development of medical and military science, it becomes possible to consider the problem as a multimodal scheme. The aim of a view of the battle in the field of service every hour of the holding of a conflict. Materials and methods for further development. In the peaceful hour of the middle of the civilian population, there are a lot of wounds in the fire, so they have to go for the crime of criminalization of the suspension, as well as in the case of non-merciless vapours on the edge, with the unprotected, unbearable weather in the winter. The results of that discussion. The analysis of scientific information during the ATO / OUF showed that in the structure of sanitary losses of a surgical profile, injuries from ear problems to become 56.7 % — 62.6 %. to the most obvious, isolated character. Conclusions. Clinical-epidemiological and clinical-anatomical pre-diagnoses reported that injuries due to splinter ears of children become 80.4 %, with cultivars — 13.1 %, with minor-explosive — 2.2 % and with explosive injuries.

scholarly journals KHWAREZMIAN CONQUEST OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND THE BATTLE OF GARNI IN 1225

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
D M Timokhin
Keyword(s):  
Political Activity ◽  
Historical Event ◽  
The South ◽  
South Caucasus ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Military Conflict ◽  
Social Communities ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
The Military

The article deals with one of the most striking moments of the Khwarezmian expansion into the South Caucasus, namely the battle of Garni in 1225. It was this military clash that largely predetermined the course of the further military and political activity of the Khorezmshah Jalal ad-Din Mankburni: till his death in 1231, his attention was focused on this region, which had rightfully become the heart of his power. For its part, it was the Khwarezmian expansion that undermined the military and political might of the Georgian Empire, so that it could no longer properly withstand the Mongolian threat in the 1230s. The author of the article considers the battle and focuses on the causes and preconditions of this military conflict and its consequences. The article also presents a brief analysis of the military and political situation in the South Caucasus on the threshold of Khwarezmian threat. The events are reconstructed basing on the available sources in the Arabic-Persian, Georgian and Armenian languages. The author of the article highlights the key matters, which the authors of the three sources draw attention to, and emphasizes the most important authors’ assessments and conclusions cited in the historical sources. Thus, the author of the article considers the battle of Garni in 1225 both as a historical event and as a certain narrative created by medieval historians belonging to different religious, ethnic and social communities. The analysis of the mentioned narrative and the laws of its formation is an important component of this study.

Energy constraints on economic growth

2020 ◽  
pp. 8-17
Author(s):  
V. Tsibulskiy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
The Relationship

The article presents analytical estimates of the relationship between such economic characteristics as gross domestic product, energy consumption and the degree of complexity of the economy, characterized by the number of stages of product conversion. These estimates are largely based on statistics for the world economy and the Russian economy. Considering, within the framework of the presented model, the possibility of increasing the GDP growth rate of the domestic economy will require a signifi cant reduction in energy tariff s and an increase in the scale of its production.

The Opportunity Costs of Military Expenditure

2018 ◽  
pp. 271-284
Author(s):  
Mainak Bhattacharjee ◽  
Debashis Mazumdar
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Health Education ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
The Other ◽  
Opportunity Costs ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Significant Opportunity

The defense or military expenditure is a vital necessity to any nation insofar as the roles of internal peace and immunity against foreign aggression in ensuring progress of a nation in all relevant fronts are concerned. In this chapter, it has been observed that the relationship between military expenditure and the growth rate GDP is nonlinear in the sense that at first with increase in the military expenditure the growth rate rises and after reaching the peak it declines with the further increase. There are also significant opportunity costs of military expenditure both in terms of GDP and economic development as a step-up in the military expenditure leads to the decline in the other forms productive expenditures like that in health, education, infrastructure inter-alia. This implies the necessity of military expenditure needs to be lowered which can be made possible by improving international harmony and imparting more bonhomie among the nations particularly amongst those which are close neighbors.

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