scholarly journals Evidence and magnitude of the effects of meteorological changes on SARS-CoV-2 transmission

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246167
Author(s):  
Adam Kaplin ◽  
Caesar Junker ◽  
Anupama Kumar ◽  
Mary Anne Ribeiro ◽  
Eileen Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Local Planning ◽  
Social Interventions ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Demographic Covariates ◽  
Minimum Daily Temperature ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
Over Time

Importance Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes. Objective Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time. Setting Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis. Methods Regression was used to find the relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates. Results Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2 = 0.610, p = 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature is on SARS-CoV-2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase is associated with a 1% decrease—and a one degree decrease could be associated with a 3.7% increase—in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. This model of the effect of decreasing temperatures can only be verified over time as the pandemic proceeds through colder months. Conclusions The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

scholarly journals Evidence and magnitude of seasonality in SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Penny wise, pandemic foolish?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Ian Kaplin ◽  
Caesar Junker ◽  
Anupama Kumar ◽  
Mary Anne de Amorim Ribeiro ◽  
Eileen Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Local Planning ◽  
Social Interventions ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Influence Of Temperature On ◽  
Demographic Covariates ◽  
Minimum Daily Temperature ◽  
Over Time

Abstract: Importance: Intensity and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic, and planning required to balance concerns of saving lives and avoiding economic collapse, could depend significantly on whether SARS-CoV-2 transmission is sensitive to seasonal changes. Objective: Hypothesis is that increasing temperature results in reduced SARS CoV-2 transmission and may help slow the increase of cases over time. Setting: Fifty representative Northern Hemisphere countries meeting specific criteria had sufficient COVID-19 case and meteorological data for analysis. Methods: Regression was used to find relationship between the log of number of COVID-19 cases and temperature over time in 50 representative countries. To summarize the day-day variability, and reduce dimensionality, we selected a robust measure, Coefficient of Time (CT), for each location. The resulting regression coefficients were then used in a multivariable regression against meteorological, country-level and demographic covariates. Results: Median minimum daily temperature showed the strongest correlation with the reciprocal of CT (which can be considered as a rate associated with doubling time) for confirmed cases (adjusted R2=0.610, p= 1.45E-06). A similar correlation was found using median daily dewpoint, which was highly colinear with temperature, and therefore was not used in the analysis. The correlation between minimum median temperature and the rate of increase of the log of confirmed cases was 47% and 45% greater than for cases of death and recovered cases of COVID-19, respectively. This suggests the primary influence of temperature on SARS-CoV2 transmission more than COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the correlation between temperature and the rate of increase in COVID-19, it can be estimated that, between the range of 30 to 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a one degree increase leads to a 1% decrease--and a one degree decrease leads to a 3.7% increase--in the rate of increase of the log of daily confirmed cases. Conclusion: The results suggest that boreal summer months are associated with slower rates of COVID-19 transmission, with the reverse true in winter months. Knowledge of COVID-19 seasonality could prove useful in local planning for phased reductions social interventions and help to prepare for the timing of possible pandemic resurgence during cooler months.

scholarly journals Age-Cohort Differences in Longitudinal Associations Between the Rate of Internet Use and Memory Functioning

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 410-410
Author(s):  
Vineet Raichur ◽  
Lindsay Ryan ◽  
Richard Gonzalez ◽  
Jacqui Smith
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Cognitive Complexity ◽  
Internet Use ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Word Recall ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Cross-sectional analyses of internet use patterns among older adults find that the rate of internet use is less with greater physical and memory difficulties. It is not clear, however, how age-cohorts differ in their internet use as physical and memory difficulties increase over time. In addition to factors such as increasing accessibility (cost) and social influences, the expansion and cognitive complexity of functions performed by the internet-enabled devices over time could influence internet use patterns. In this study, we investigate how the association between internet use and episodic memory difficulties over time varies between cohorts. We analyzed longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (N = 15,703 in 2002; Aged 51 and older) between years 2002-2016 using mixed effects logistic regression models. Immediate and delayed word recall measures were used to assess episodic memory. Rate of internet use in the sample increased from 30% in 2002 to 53% in 2016. Rate of internet use among younger age groups was significantly higher in the baseline year. Younger age groups also showed a significantly higher rate of increase in internet use over time. In general, internet use decreased with episodic memory impairment. In addition to these effects, the effect of episodic memory on the rate of increase in internet use over time is lower in younger cohorts. These results indicate that younger cohorts of older adults are more likely to maintain internet use as they continue to age and therefore could better utilize technology for communication, social interactions and health interventions.

scholarly journals Faculty Publishing Productivity: Comparisons over Time

2006 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Budd
Keyword(s):  
Academic Librarians ◽  
Tenure Track ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Part Time Faculty ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Part Time ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Time Faculty ◽  
Over Time

Concerns about higher education abound, and these include concerns about productivity. The present study extends two previous examinations of faculty publishing productivity covering the years 1991 to 1993 and 1995 to 1997. Both members of ARL and a group of institutions included in ACRL’s data set are included. For both groups there are some increases in mean total numbers of publications, although the rate of increase has decreased since the second time period. Per capita rates of publication demonstrate an even flatter pattern. In recent years, there have been some changes in the dynamics of universities’ faculties; there are more part-time faculty and more faculty who are not on the tenure track. These factors, coupled with the publishing data, point to activities that all academic librarians should be aware of.

Brand awareness: revisiting an old metric for a new world

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 469-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenni Romaniuk ◽  
Samuel Wight ◽  
Margaret Faulkner
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Brand Management ◽  
Brand Awareness ◽  
Underlying Structure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Global Brand ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Purpose Brand awareness is a pivotal, but often neglected, aspect of consumer-based brand equity. This paper revisits brand awareness measures in the context of global brand management. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the method of Laurent et al. (1995), this cross-sectional longitudinal study examines changes in brand awareness over time, with sample sizes of approximately 300 whisky consumers per wave in three countries: United Kingdom, Taiwan and Greece. Findings There is consistency in the underlying structure of awareness scores across countries, and over time, extending the work of Laurent et al. (1995). Results show that a relevant operationalisation of brand awareness needs to account for the history of the brand. Furthermore, the nature of the variation of brand awareness over time interacts with a brand’s market share. Research limitations/implications When modelling the impact of brand awareness researchers need to consider two factors – the brand’s market share and whether a more stable or volatile measure is sought. This avoids mis-specifying the country-level contribution of brand awareness. Practical implications Global brand managers should be wary of adopting a “one size fits all” approach. The choice of brand awareness measure depends on the brand’s market share, and the desire for higher sensitivity or stability. Originality/value The paper provides one of the few multi-country investigations into brand awareness that can help inform global brand management.

scholarly journals Human infectious disease burdens decrease with urbanization but not with biodiversity

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1722) ◽  
pp. 20160122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea L. Wood ◽  
Alex McInturff ◽  
Hillary S. Young ◽  
DoHyung Kim ◽  
Kevin D. Lafferty
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Dilution Effect ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Over Time

Infectious disease burdens vary from country to country and year to year due to ecological and economic drivers. Recently, Murray et al. (Murray CJ et al . 2012 Lancet 380 , 2197–2223. ( doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4 )) estimated country-level morbidity and mortality associated with a variety of factors, including infectious diseases, for the years 1990 and 2010. Unlike other databases that report disease prevalence or count outbreaks per country, Murray et al. report health impacts in per-person disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), allowing comparison across diseases with lethal and sublethal health effects. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationships between DALYs lost to infectious disease and potential demographic, economic, environmental and biotic drivers, for the 60 intermediate-sized countries where data were available and comparable. Most drivers had unique associations with each disease. For example, temperature was positively associated with some diseases and negatively associated with others, perhaps due to differences in disease agent thermal optima, transmission modes and host species identities. Biodiverse countries tended to have high disease burdens, consistent with the expectation that high diversity of potential hosts should support high disease transmission. Contrary to the dilution effect hypothesis, increases in biodiversity over time were not correlated with improvements in human health, and increases in forestation over time were actually associated with increased disease burden. Urbanization and wealth were associated with lower burdens for many diseases, a pattern that could arise from increased access to sanitation and healthcare in cities and increased investment in healthcare. The importance of urbanization and wealth helps to explain why most infectious diseases have become less burdensome over the past three decades, and points to possible levers for further progress in improving global public health. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.

scholarly journals Women’s health in The BMJ: a data science history

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e039759
Author(s):  
Eva N Hamulyák ◽  
Austin J Brockmeier ◽  
Johanna D Killas ◽  
Sophia Ananiadou ◽  
Saskia Middeldorp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Women’S Health ◽  
Women's Health ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Research Articles ◽  
Research Article ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Medical Advances ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Health Programmes ◽  
Specific Health

ObjectiveTo determine how the representation of women’s health has changed in clinical studies over the course of 70 years.DesignObservational study of 71 866 research articles published between 1948 and 2018 in The BMJ.Main outcome measuresThe incidence of women-specific health topics over time. General linear, additive and segmented regression models were used to estimate trends.ResultsOver 70 years, the overall odds that a word in a BMJ research article was ‘woman’ or ‘women’ increased by an annual factor of 1.023, but this rate of increase varied by clinical specialty with some showing little or no change. The odds that an article was about some aspect of women-specific health increased much more slowly, by an annual factor of 1.004. The incidence of articles about particular areas of women-specific medicine such as pregnancy did not show a general increase, but rather fluctuated over time. The incidence of articles making any mention of women, gender or sex declined between 1948 and 2005, after which it rose steeply so that by 2018 few papers made no mention of them at all.ConclusionsOver time women have become ever more prominent in BMJ research articles. However, the importance of women-specific health topics has waxed and waned as researchers responded ephemerally to medical advances, public health programmes, and sociolegal changes. The appointment of a woman editor-inchief in 2005 may have had a dramatic effect on whether women were mentioned in research articles.

scholarly journals Prevention, Screening, and Surveillance Care for Breast Cancer Survivors Compared With Controls: Changes from 1998 to 2002

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 1054-1061 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire F. Snyder ◽  
Kevin D. Frick ◽  
Melinda E. Kantsiper ◽  
Kimberly S. Peairs ◽  
Robert J. Herbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Cancer Survivors ◽  
Breast Cancer Survivors ◽  
Primary Care Providers ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Physician Visits ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Trends Over Time ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Over Time

Purpose To examine how care for breast cancer survivors compares with controls. Patients and Methods Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare database, we examined five cohorts of stages 1 to 3 breast cancer survivors diagnosed from 1998 to 2002. For each survivor cohort (defined by diagnosis year), we calculated the number of visits to oncology specialists, primary care providers (PCPs), and other physicians and the percentage who received influenza vaccination, cholesterol screening, colorectal cancer screening, bone densitometry, and mammography during survivorship year 1 (days 366 to 730 postdiagnosis). We compared survivors' care to that of five cohorts of screening controls who were matched to survivors on age, ethnicity, sex, and region and who had a mammogram in the survivor's year of diagnosis and to that of five cohorts of comorbidity controls who were matched on age, ethnicity, sex, region, and comorbidity. We examined whether survivors' care was associated with the mix of physician specialties that were visited. Results A total of 23,731 survivors were matched with 23,731 screening controls and 23,396 comorbidity controls. There was no difference in trends over time in PCP visits between survivors and either control group. The survivors' rate of increase in other physician visits was greater than screening controls (P = .002) but was no different from comorbidity controls. Survivors were less likely to receive preventive care than screening controls but were more likely than comorbidity controls. Trends over time in survivors' care tended to be better than screening controls but were no different than comorbidity controls. Survivors who visited both a PCP and oncology specialist were most likely to receive recommended care. Conclusion Involvement by both PCPs and oncology specialists can facilitate appropriate care for survivors.

A simple model for ferret population dynamics and control in semi-arid New Zealand habitats

2001 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. D. Barlow ◽  
G. L. Norbury
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Current Density ◽  
Average Density ◽  
Intrinsic Rate Of Increase ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Over Time

Introduced ferrets (Mustela furo) in New Zealand are subject to population control to reduce their threat to native fauna and the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in livestock. To help in evaluating control options and to contribute to a multi-species model for Tb dynamics, a simple Ricker model was developed for ferret population dynamics in a semi-arid environment. The model was based on two data sets and suggested an intrinsic rate of increase for ferrets of 1.0–1.3 year–1 and a carrying capacity of 0.5–2.9 km–2. There was evidence for direct density-dependence in both data sets and the effect appeared to act mainly on recruitment. Dependence of the rate of increase of predators on the density of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) was exhibited in one of the two data sets, together with a numerical response relating current density of predators asymptotically to current density of rabbits, their primary prey. Predators in this data set included both cats and ferrets, estimated from spotlight counts, but the other data set demonstrated a direct proportionality between predator (cat and ferret) spotlight counts and minimum ferrets known to be alive by trapping. The model suggested, firstly, that populations are hard to suppress by continuous culling, with at least a 50% removal per year necessary to effect a suppression of 50% in long-term average density. Secondly, if control is episodic rather than continuous, culling in autumn gives a greater degree of suppression over time (280%, accumulated over time) than culling in spring (180%). A differential equation version of the model provides a component for a general Anderson/May bovine Tb/wildlife (possum/deer/ferret) model.

scholarly journals Agency Beliefs Over Time and Across Cultures: Free Will Beliefs Predict Higher Job Satisfaction

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilad Feldman ◽  
Jiing-Lih Farh ◽  
Kin Fai Ellick Wong
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Free Will ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Life Outcomes ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Agency Beliefs ◽  
Online Labor ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

In three studies, we examined the relationship between free will beliefs and job satisfaction over time and across cultures. Study 1 examined 252 Taiwanese real-estate agents over a 3-months period. Study 2 examined job satisfaction for 137 American workers on an online labor market over a 6-months period. Study 3 extended to a large sample of 14,062 employees from 16 countries and examined country-level moderators. We found a consistent positive relationship between the belief in free will and job satisfaction. The relationship was above and beyond other agency constructs (Study 2), mediated by perceived autonomy (Studies 2-3), and stronger in countries with a higher national endorsement of the belief in free will (Study 3). We conclude that free-will beliefs predict outcomes over time and across cultures beyond other agency constructs. We call for more cross-cultural and longitudinal studies examining free-will beliefs as predictors of real-life outcomes.

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