scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Uganda: Implications of complacency and early easing of lockdown

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0247456
Author(s):  
Joseph Y. T. Mugisha ◽  
Joseph Ssebuliba ◽  
Juliet N. Nakakawa ◽  
Cliff R. Kikawa ◽  
Amos Ssematimba
Keyword(s):  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Latently Infected ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

Background Uganda has a unique set up comprised of resource-constrained economy, social-economic challenges, politically diverse regional neighborhood and home to long-standing refuge crisis that comes from long and protracted conflicts of the great lakes. The devastation of the on-going global pandemic outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is likely to be escalated by these circumstances with expectations of the impact of the disease being severe. Materials and methods In this study, we formulate a mathematical model that incorporates the currently known disease characteristics and tracks various intervention measures that the government of Uganda has implemented since the reporting of the first case in March 2020. We then evaluate these measures to understand levels of responsiveness and adherence to standard operating procedures and quantify their impact on the disease burden. Novel in this model was the unique aspect of modeling the trace-and-isolate protocol in which some of the latently infected individuals tested positive while in strict isolation centers thereby reducing their infectious period. Results The study findings show that even with elimination of all imported cases at any given time it would take up to nine months to rid Uganda of the disease. The findings also show that the optimal timing of easing of lockdowns while mitigating the possibility of re-emergence of a second epidemic wave requires avoiding the scenario of releasing too-many-too-soon. It is even more worrying that enhancing contact tracing would only affect the magnitude and timing of the second wave but cannot prevent it altogether. Conclusion We conclude that, given the prevailing circumstances, a phased-out lifting of lockdown measures, minimization of COVID-19 transmissibility within hospital settings, elimination of recruitment of infected individuals as well as enhanced contact tracing would be key to preventing overwhelming of the healthcare system that would come with dire consequences.

scholarly journals PEMBERDAYAAN MASYARAKAT MELALUI BUDIDAYA JAMUR TIRAM UNTUK MEWUJUDKAN KEMANDIRIAN BERWIRAUSAHA DI ERA NEW NORMAL PADA KELOMPOK WANITA TANI (KWT) MAJU BERSAMA DUSUN PELEMPAT KABUPATEN LOMBOK BARAT

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Mey Susanti AS ◽  
Dewi Rispawati ◽  
Basuki Srihermanto ◽  
Suryaningsih
Keyword(s):  
Health Sector ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Women Farmers ◽  
New Normal ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Family ◽  
High Motivation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia reported the first case of Covid-19 on March 2, 2020. Data as of March 31, 2020 showed that there were 1.528 confirmed cases and 136 deaths. The Covid-19 death rate in Indonesia is 8.9%, the highest in Southeast Asia. After confirming the first case, the Government of Indonesia took various countermeasures to reduce the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in various sectors. Not only the health sector but also the economic sector has suffered no less serious impacts due to this pandemic. At the family level, the small and middle levels of society become weak and decline, this is due to restrictions on community activities. Due to these conditions, it is necessary to make efforts that we must do to be able to restore the economic condition of the family by utilizing the potential that exists around it. This service was carried out at the Women Farmers Group called ‘Kelompok Wanita Tani (KWT) Maju Bersama’  Pelempat, Meninting Village, West Lombok District, West Nusa Tenggara Province. The method used in this activity is implemented in 4 (four) activity stages, namely 1) Preparation, 2) Socialization, 3) Activity Implementation, and 4) Monitoring and Evaluation. The results of the activity showed that members of  Kelompok Wanita Tani (KWT) Maju Bersama have understood the technique of developing oyster mushroom cultivation and have high motivation to become entrepreneurs through cultivating oyster mushrooms as well as making it to increase people's income in the New Normal Era of the Covid-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Estimating Impact of Covid 19 Outbreaks on Regional Economic's Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Sambari Radianto ◽  
Mahjudin Mahjudin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Regional Economics ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Counter Measures ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia officially declared the first case of the corona virus infection that caused Covid-19 in early March 2020. Since then, various counter measures have been taken by the government to reduce the impact of the Covid-19 outbreaks in various sectors. Restrictions on community activities affect business activities which led to economics declination. Almost all sectors are affected. This study aims to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreaks on the regional economics development.  This research using composite index to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreaks  on the regional economic develompment and this was carried out by building an index composite showing the severity of health on one hand and economic performance on the other. This research shows, 34 provinces in Indonesia can be classified into four quadrants: 1) health improving and the economy is improving, 2) health is improving and the economy is deteriorating, 3) health worsening and the economy is improving, and 4) health is deteriorating and the economy is deteriorating. This study aprovide suggestions in order to be more accurate in identifying problems and finding precise solutions, the local government should collect data and research on economic aspects in a fast and precise way, namely 1) the level of the COVID-19 outbreak in the province, 2 ) risk factors for natural disasters, 3), factors characteristic of economic problems, 4) fiscal burden factors.

scholarly journals Epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Nepal and the importance of social distancing to contain the virus

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
Amod K. Pokhrel ◽  
Yadav P. Joshi ◽  
Sopnil Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
The Government ◽  
Testing Case ◽  
The Impact

There is limited information on the epidemiology and the effects of mitigation measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Nepal. Using publicly available databases, we analyzed the epidemiological trend, the people's movement trends at different intervals across different categories of places and evaluated implications of social mobility on COVID-19. We also estimated the epidemic peak. As of June 9, 2020, Provinces 2 and 5 have most of the cases. People between 15 and 54 years are vulnerable to becoming infected, and more males than females are affected. The cases are growing exponentially. The growth rate of 0.13 and >1 reproduction numbers (R0) over time (median: 1.48; minimum: 0.58, and maximum: 3.71) confirms this trend. The case doubling time is five days. Google's community mobility data suggest that people strictly followed social distancing measures for one month after the lockdown. By around the 4th week of April, the individual's movement started rising, and social contacts increased. The number of cases peaked on May 12, with 83 confirmed cases in one day. The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model suggests that the epidemic will peak approximately on day 41 (July 21, 2020), and start to plateau after day 80. To contain the spread of the virus, people should maintain social distancing. The Government needs to continue active surveillance, more PCR-based testing, case detection, contact tracing, isolation, and quarantine. The Government should also provide financial support and safety-nets to the citizen to limit the impact of COVID-19.

Investigation Of The Impact Of Networking Among Tenants In The Seda Limpopo Jewellery Incubator In South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-26
Author(s):  
Forbes Chiromo ◽  
Goodwell Muyengwa ◽  
Joseph Makuvaza
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Limpopo Province ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Metal Fabrication ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Training Programmes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structured Questionnaire

AbstractThis study investigates the extent to which tenants in a jewellery incubator in the Limpopo Province of South Africa network. Since 1994 SEDA has set up more than 31 incubation centres in furniture making, construction, chemicals, jewellery, ICT, metal fabrication, agriculture and small scale mining. This study was done through a survey conducted on tenants in the SEDA Limpopo Jewellery Incubator (SLJI). Information was obtained through a structured questionnaire. The study revealed how tenants benefit from networking around exhibitions and collective purchasing of raw material. Through the Incubator institutional mechanisms, the study explains how tenants share expertise, experiences, technology and resources. Unfortunately the tenants do not initiate the own networking programmes. They lose out on benefits associated with collective effort in other areas such as advertisements, lobbying the government for industrial stands, organising an newsletter, hiring of consultants, and organising joint training programmes. Lastly the study identified opportunities that the tenants could collectively exploit in order strengthen and sustain their businesses.

scholarly journals Health system resilience in managing the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons from Singapore

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. e003317
Author(s):  
Alvin Qijia Chua ◽  
Melisa Mei Jin Tan ◽  
Monica Verma ◽  
Emeline Kai Lin Han ◽  
Li Yang Hsu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Migrant Worker ◽  
Health Service Delivery ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Legal Foundation ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Rapid Transmission ◽  
At Risk Populations ◽  
System Resilience ◽  
The Government

Singapore, one of the first countries affected by COVID-19, adopted a national strategy for the pandemic which emphasised preparedness through a whole-of-nation approach. The pandemic was well contained initially until early April 2020, when there was a surge in cases, attributed to Singapore residents returning from hotspots overseas, and more significantly, rapid transmission locally within migrant worker dormitories. In this paper, we present the response of Singapore to the COVID-19 pandemic based on core dimensions of health system resilience during outbreaks. We also discussed on the surge in cases in April 2020, highlighting efforts to mitigate it. There was: (1) clear leadership and governance which adopted flexible plans appropriate to the situation; (2) timely, accurate and transparent communication from the government; (3) public health measures to reduce imported cases, and detect as well as isolate cases early; (4) maintenance of health service delivery; (5) access to crisis financing; and (6) legal foundation to complement policy measures. Areas for improvement include understanding reasons for poor uptake of government initiatives, such as the mobile application for contact tracing and adopting a more inclusive response that protects all individuals, including at-risk populations. The experience in Singapore and lessons learnt will contribute to pandemic preparedness and mitigation in the future.

scholarly journals Contact tracing: a global perspective and recommendations for the Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 3740
Author(s):  
Varad Puntambekar ◽  
Parth Sharma ◽  
Manish Mulchandani
Keyword(s):  
Health Workers ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
User Privacy ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Tracing Techniques

We are currently in the midst of a pandemic of SARS-COVID-19 that has spread and increased its reach geometrically in just 3 months. Different countries and states are employing multiple methods to decrease the spread of the virus and decrease its negative impact. The government of India also has taken steps to identify and trace all patients and their contacts. This requires immense input of manpower, finance and technological solutions. Models from India and all over the world act as guides in highlighting the advantages and pitfalls of this method. Models of South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, where intensive contact tracing measures have been implemented have been successful in controlling the pandemic but have created issues of invasion of privacy. Most successful models, in the developing world have sought out to create a multi-disciplinary dedicated contact tracing team of roughly 2-3 contact tracers per 1000 population. It is important to set up a dedicated team for this so that the already stretched ASHA and other community health workers are not overburdened as more responsibilities might lead do decrease in quality. Such a team, which is sensitive to local customs and armed with basics of contact-tracing techniques, need not be highly educated. Technological solutions that keep user privacy as a priority and encourage transparent sharing of methodologies to ensure user privacy must be promoted. Solutions must ensure dissemination of information from trusted sources and self-monitoring of symptoms.

scholarly journals The timing of COVID-19 transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Ferretti ◽  
Alice Ledda ◽  
Chris Wymant ◽  
Lele Zhao ◽  
Virginia Ledda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Critical Factor ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Contextual Risk ◽  
Home Testing ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

The timing of SARS-CoV-2 transmission is a critical factor to understand the epidemic trajectory and the impact of isolation, contact tracing and other non- pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 epidemics. We examined the distribution of transmission events with respect to exposure and onset of symptoms. We show that for symptomatic individuals, the timing of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is more strongly linked to the onset of clinical symptoms of COVID-19 than to the time since infection. We found that it was approximately centered and symmetric around the onset of symptoms, with three quarters of events occurring in the window from 2-3 days before to 2-3 days after. However, we caution against overinterpretation of the right tail of the distribution, due to its dependence on behavioural factors and interventions. We also found that the pre-symptomatic infectious period extended further back in time for individuals with longer incubation periods. This strongly suggests that information about when a case was infected should be collected where possible, in order to assess how far into the past their contacts should be traced. Overall, the fraction of transmission from strictly pre-symptomatic infections was high (41%; 95%CI 31-50%), which limits the efficacy of symptom-based interventions, and the large fraction of transmissions (35%; 95%CI 26-45%) that occur on the same day or the day after onset of symptoms underlines the critical importance of individuals distancing themselves from others as soon as they notice any symptoms, even if they are mild. Rapid or at-home testing and contextual risk information would greatly facilitate efficient early isolation.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Higher Education and Research: Learning from Experience and the Way Forward

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Bashawir Abdul Ghani ◽  
Nor Idayu Mahat ◽  
Mohd Faizal Omar ◽  
Shahbani Abu Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Learning And Teaching ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
First Case ◽  
Face To Face Learning ◽  
The Government ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on many countries in early 2020 after the first case was reported in China at the end of 2019. Malaysia was not spared either and the Government was forced to take a bold yet drastic measure in implementing the Movement Control Order (MCO) in earnest on 18 March 2020. The measure, akin to a lockdown, practically forced all forms of socio-economics and socio-educational activities to come to an abrupt stop. Schools, institutions of higher learning and training centers were directed to close its doors to students. Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) had to abruptly implement contingency plans in the wake of the negative impact brought about by the pandemic. Almost all academic activities had to be reorganized when majority of the students opted to return to the safety of their home environment, and the staff were required to work from home in compliant with the MCO. This development necessitated the University to introduce the remote learning mode in place of the traditional face to face learning and teaching (T&L). Various other strategies and measures were also introduced by the University which required reprioritization of tasks and determining possible risks that could impede normal daily operations. UUM opted for a holistic approach to address the impending concerns and to ensure the continuity of the education process and to address the wellbeing of its staff who are forced to work from home.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of interventions against COVID-19: from lockdown to vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Thompson ◽  
Stephen Wattam
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Clustering ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Resident Population ◽  
First Case ◽  
Equivalent Equation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease of humans caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first case was identified in China in December 2019 the disease has spread worldwide, leading to an ongoing pandemic. In this article, we present a detailed agent-based model of COVID-19 in Luxembourg, and use it to estimate the impact, on cases and deaths, of interventions including testing, contact tracing, lockdown, curfew and vaccination.Our model is based on collation, with agents performing activities and moving between locations accordingly. The model is highly heterogeneous, featuring spatial clustering, over 2000 behavioural types and a 10 minute time resolution. The model is validated against COVID-19 clinical monitoring data collected in Luxembourg in 2020.Our model predicts far fewer cases and deaths than the equivalent equation-based SEIR model. In particular, with R0 = 2.45, the SEIR model infects 87% of the resident population while our agent-based model results, on average, in only around 23% of the resident population infected. Our simulations suggest that testing and contract tracing reduce cases substantially, but are much less effective at reducing deaths. Lockdowns appear very effective although costly, while the impact of an 11pm-6am curfew is relatively small. When vaccinating against a future outbreak, our results suggest that herd immunity can be achieved at relatively low levels, with substantial levels of protection achieved with only 30% of the population immune. When vaccinating in midst of an outbreak, the challenge is more difficult. In this context, we investigate the impact of vaccine efficacy, capacity, hesitancy and strategy.We conclude that, short of a permanent lockdown, vaccination is by far the most effective way to suppress and ultimately control the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals EXAMINATION OF TYPES OF INFLUENCES OF THE UKRAINIAN DIASPORA, ASSESSMENT OF SPECIFIC EXAMPLES AND THEIR CHARACTERISTIC IN THE ASPECT OF CURRENT NEEDS OF UKRAINE

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 24-32
Author(s):  
Tetiana Kondakova
Keyword(s):  
Support Groups ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Political Prisoners ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Internship Programs ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the impact of the Ukrainian diaspora on Ukraine using an extensive survey of more than sixty opinion leaders, scholars, representatives of Ukrainian organizations in the diaspora, as well as data shared by these organizations and relevant scientific literature. The article attempts to identify the main types of influences by areas and nature of the activity of the diaspora. One type of influence of the diaspora is informational or propaganda influence. Through the Ukrainian media, literature, art, scientific works, petitions, actions, and protests, the Ukrainian diaspora promotes information about Ukraine, contributing to the creation of a positive international image for the country. During the massacres and imprisonment of Ukrainian dissidents worldwide, student and human rights organizations set up committees to defend political prisoners under the leadership of Ukrainian diaspora representatives. The struggle for the release of Ukrainian political prisoners was also waged by the Ukrainian media that published self-published works (samvydav), research, memoirs, and documents of many Ukrainian political prisoners, documents and bulletins of the Ukrainian Helsinki Group, as well as many other materials about Soviet arbitrariness in Ukraine. Today, all Ukrainian diaspora organizations, to a greater or lesser extent, are fighting against Russian propaganda. Another type of influence of the diaspora is political influence, i.e., the ability of the diaspora to facilitate the adoption of political decisions beneficial to Ukraine by their host countries. Ukrainian diasporas are actively lobbying for Ukraine’s interests, which resulted in the proclamation of Captive Nations Week in the USA, recognition of the Holodomor as genocide of the Ukrainian people in 17 countries, the introduction of the Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act and other bills to the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, establishment of support groups for Ukraine in the US and Canadian Parliaments, adoption of numerous laws and political documents worldwide that condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, impose sanctions on the Russian Federation, and create a legal basis for providing financial, humanitarian, and military assistance to Ukraine. The economic or financial influence of the Ukrainian diaspora on the homeland is represented by remittances sent by representatives of the diaspora to their relatives who still live in Ukraine and by financial aid provided to Ukraine by diaspora organizations and patrons to achieve specific goals. Thanks to the diaspora efforts, millions of dollars in assistance were provided to Ukraine during the years of its independence. Significant results have been achieved in the field of cultural and educational impact. The most notable examples of educational and cultural influence are the return of Ukrainian folklore and traditions to Ukraine taken away by the Soviet oppression; the establishment or restoration of organizations such as Plast, the Shevchenko Scientific Society, the Ukrainian Youth Association; organization of internship programs for Ukrainian students and young specialists; creation of advisory programs for the Government of Ukraine with the participation of highly-qualified Western specialists; transfer of know-how; and creation of training programs for Ukrainian police and army. Specific examples given in the article can demonstrate the extraordinary efforts made by the diaspora to support and assist Ukraine.

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