scholarly journals Relationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0248138
Author(s):  
Haoyu Hu ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Dawei Feng ◽  
Hualei Yang

There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China’s pension system’s fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker’s old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.

Author(s):  
Tetiana Ivashchenko

The most contradictions arise today over the pension system reforming. Each year the states spent significant resources to finance social and economic needs of the population. The positive effect of the nominal growth of the social and economic guarantees in Ukraine leveled nowadays in terms of financial, economic and political instability. Also the processes of depopulation have a very negative impact on the financial viability of the PAYG pension system. Given this, the research aim was to study and discuss tendencies in financial provision of the pension systems in the European countries and Ukraine under globalization. As a result in the process of research the main features of functioning and providing of the pension insurance systems in European countries and Ukraine were examined; the impact of the depopulation processes on the financial provision of the pension systems was determined; problems, related to introduction of the funded system of pension insurance were analyzed; the role of the minimum pension institute in provision of the effective pension system functioning was disclosed and recommendations in relation to optimization of pension insurance and providing сo-operation under globalization were developed.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Grech

Policymakers pushing pension reforms have tended to justify changes on the basis that they would make systems more sustainable by lowering future spending on pensions. This is a rather narrow interpretation of sustainability that fails to consider that other fiscal programs may need to accommodate the impact of reforms that reduce pension system adequacy. In this light, this article argues that in order to correctly assess the sustainability of pension reforms, one needs to adopt a more holistic framework that encapsulates the interaction between pension system goals and constraints. In a number of countries, reforms focused solely on reducing future spending were followed by reforms that restored generosity. A holistic approach to assess pension sustainability could help limit this cycle of reform and increase trust in pension systems.


2014 ◽  
Vol 1073-1076 ◽  
pp. 1188-1195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Hui Ding ◽  
Wei Zhou Zhong ◽  
Yi Lan Liao ◽  
Shuo Xin Zhang ◽  
Yu Jiang

During the last 3 decades, developing countries especially China has experienced rapid urbanization process, which on one side have brought great leap forward of local economy as well as local social wellbeings, however on the other side such process has also led to great challenges on local ecosystem, which may jeopardize the potential of cities in these countries to meet their residents’ need and pursue more sustainable future. Therefore, a case study was taken in Yantai, a major city in Circum-Bohai Sea Region, and to assess the impact of rapid urbanization process on the local ecosystem services (ES), hence provided suggestions for pursuing more rational way of development of this city. Results showed that the decentralized pattern of urbanization, although has relatively moderate impact on Yantai’s ES, but may have substantially influences on the city’s sustainable future, therefore measures should be taken on restrain the decentralized urban expansion, reform of local authority regimes toward sustainable governance, as well as transforming regional industrial structure from secondary industry depended to more environmental friendly pattern.


Author(s):  
В. Ю. Бабышев

В статье рассматриваются экономические последствия демографического старения. Обосновывается актуальность данной темы. Исследовательской проблемой данной статьи является оценка силы влияния демографического старения на финансовое состояние пенсионной системы в мире. Проводится проверка тезисов «макроэкономики старения» относительно финансового состояния пенсионных систем при увеличении доли лиц старше трудоспособного возраста. Проведен географический анализ отклонений места стран в рейтинге достаточности пенсионного дохода и рейтинге Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index от места стран в рейтинге демографического старения. В качестве информационной базы используется рейтинг достаточности пенсионного дохода по 48 странам, рейтинг Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index по 25 странам и разработанный ООН коэффициент демографической нагрузки пожилыми. Сделан вывод об отсутствии значимой корреляции старения населения, с одной стороны, и финансового состояния пенсионных систем, с другой. Дополнительно сделан вывод, что существует определенная зависимость между силой влияния демографического старения и экономикогеографическим регионом. Дается возможное теоретическое обоснование ошибочности тезисов «макроэкономики старения». Рассмотрены недемографические факторы влияния на финансовое состояние пенсионных систем. This article discusses the economic consequences of demographic aging. The relevance of this topic is substantiated. The research problem of this article is to assess the strength of the influence of demographic aging on the financial condition of the pension system in the world. Abstracts of the «macroeconomics of aging» theses are reviewed with respect to the financial condition of pension systems with an increase in the share of people over working age. A geographical analysis of deviations of the place of countries in the rating of sufficiency of retirement income and the rating of the Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index from the place of countries in the ranking of demographic aging is carried out. The retirement income sufficiency rating for 48 countries, the Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index rating for 25 countries and the UN developed Old age dependency ratio (OADR) are used as the information base. It is concluded that there is no significant correlation between the aging of the population on the one hand and the financial condition of pension systems on the other. Additionally, it was concluded that there is a certain pattern between the strength of the influence of demographic aging and the economic and geographical region. A possible theoretical justification of the thesis of the thesis «macroeconomics of aging» is given. Non-demographic factors of influence on the financial condition of pension systems are considered.


2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
AGNIESZKA CHŁOŃ-DOMIŃCZAK

AbstractThe paper shows the impact of changes in multi-pillar pension systems in six Central and Eastern European countries for individual pension wealth. It demonstrates that the post-crisis changes in pension system reduced pension wealth of workers in Poland and increased in Lithuania and Slovakia. The change did not have significant impact on pension wealth in Estonia and Romania. The magnitude of this effect is highest in those countries where the reduction of the fully-funded pension contribution was permanent. Loss or gain in pension wealth varies with age of participants – it is higher for younger people, who will accumulate their pension wealth to a larger extent after the change. The level of the change in pension wealth depends also on the wage level – higher earners lose more relative to the average wage level. The difference in pension wealth depends also on the difference between rates of return in fully funded and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) components of the pension system. The net outcome of post-crisis pension system modifications depends both on the magnitude of fully-funded contribution reduction, but also on the design of PAYG component and the way individual pension rights are accrued. These results indicate the rise in implicit liability of pension system in Slovakia to be higher than the reduction of the explicit liability caused by the pension system change and the lower rise of implicit liability in Poland and Latvia.


2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 119-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouji Sun ◽  
Jiye Hu

The impact of pension assets on financial development is both quantitatively and qualitatively. On quantitatively, pension funds increase capital supply to financial market. On qualitatively, pension funds as institutional investors could promote corporate governance, information disclosure and transaction efficiency. Based on regression results of 55 countries and regions, we find that different pension systems formed different size of pension fund; every 1% increase of the pension funds’ assets could bring about 0.15%-0.23% increase of the market value, which could explain cross-countries difference of financial development. Based on panel data analysis, we find that the impact of pension fund on financial development is very significant especially in civil law and underdeveloped countries. By using co-integration analysis and vector auto regression model (VAR) with time series data of Chile, we find positive relationship between pension funds and financial development again. The empirical results indicate that legal origin, endowment and pension fund views are not exclusive but compatible. A country cannot change its legal origin and endowment, but it can change pension policies and reform social security system. A funded pension system with accumulates pension assets could promote a country’s financial development and economic growth.


2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Traute Meyer ◽  
Birgit Pfau-Effinger

This paper studies the modernisation of gender arrangements and the restructuring of pension systems in the United Kingdom and Germany since the 1950s. We firstly aim to pinpoint the time when pension programmes were apt components of the ’strong breadwinner model’. Secondly, we explore the assumption that pension systems are tools of stratification, by comparing the ways in which the constraints and incentives of these pension systems have been in line with typical life courses of women. Our paper argues that the constraints and incentives of pensions have altered quite significantly over time and questions whether they have appropriately been characterised as components of strong breadwinner models over the long term. In the UK the pension system only supported the strong breadwinner model until the mid-1970s, whilst the German system never fully supported it. In addition, it is shown that the impact of pensions on women’s behaviour is relatively limited. At times, women’s lives were in accordance with the male breadwinner model, and they suffered high poverty risks despite having potential access to a more modern pension regime; during other periods, their employment choices were at odds with the strong directives issued by pension regulations to stay at home. This demonstrates the importance of taking other factors, such as cultural influences and other societal institutions into account when exploring the impact of social policies on citizens’ lives; but it also poses the question of whether pensions are really important building blocks of the breadwinner model.


2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.


2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 550-562

Drawn upon field research in two peri-urban villages of Hanoi in 2014 and short re-visits recently, the research examines the widespread of gambling and other social issues in Hanoi’s urbanizing peri-urban communities which happened concurrently with the phenomenon of “land fever,” and at the time local villagers received compensation from land appropriation. The article aims to understand the impact of urbanization on these communities and the interface between urbanization and the increase of social problems. It argues that gambling, drug use, and other social problems have been existing in Vietnamese rural communities long before; however, when urbanization came, some people have higher chances to engage in these activities. Those are villagers who want to transform quickly into entrepreneurs or bosses by joining the “black credit” market and gambling. Together with middle-aged and old farmers who greatly relied on agricultural production and face difficulties in transforming their occupation, they formed the group of losers in the urbanization process. Received 6th January 2019; Revised 26th April 2019; Accepted 15th May 2019


2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-210
Author(s):  
Stefan Krajewski

The rapid weakening of economic activity, covering most states in the world, gives rise to a lively discussion on the choice of methods to tackle the crisis, the legitimacy and effectiveness of various economic policies, the role of the state and the scope of its intervention in the economy. The paper evaluates the Polish economic policy in recent years. This refers to the situation prevailing in the EU and the USA. I conclude that the Polish economy during the crisis remained relatively stable, without having to provide the emergency aid from the outside. The development of such a situation has been affected by different reasons, including: - The benefits of the so-called "backwardness rent", which resulted, among others, in the inflow of EU funds (Poland was in 2007-2013 and in will be in 2014-2020 the biggest beneficiary of the EU budget); - The effects of decisions on changes in the tax and social security, taken for political reasons (before the crisis); - The controversial withdrawal from the funded pension system, reducing the budget deficit and public debt; - The prudent monetary policy and anti-inflation policy pursued over many years. Actions taken in Poland are primarily focused on reducing costs, which differs quite significantly from the economic policy dominant in the U.S. and the "old" EU countries which generally pursue expansionary fiscal policy and a policy of cheap money. Polish solution facilitates the achievement of short-term fiscal sustainability, but does not create favorable conditions for the development in the long-term (insufficient investment, petrification of economic structure, lack of innovation). 


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