scholarly journals Hard coal project valuation based on real options approach: multiplicative vs. arithmetic stochastic process

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr W. Saługa ◽  
Jacek Kamiński
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Lattice Models ◽  
Hard Coal ◽  
List Type ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Project Valuation

Abstract Precise valuation of the economic efficiency of risky investment projects in the mineral sector has a direct impact on the range of future investments. Since the mid-90s, a number of enterprises have also been giving increased attention to the valuation of managerial flexibility that cannot normally be estimated with classical discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This has been the result of a development in the real options analysis (ROA) and the simplification of its algorithms, most of which have been achieved through: ♦ incorporating lattice models, ♦ introducing a single uncertain project parameter (gross present value, PV) as an underlying instrument, ♦ assuming that the underlying asset follows the multiplicative stochastic process, ♦ introducing the ‘marketed asset disclaimer’ (MAD) assumption. Unfortunately, in most cases, models constructed on the abovementioned assumptions and modifications are not consistent with real projects. Some analysts recognize that project PVs might not follow the multiplicative process, which could have a direct impact on the project’s value. In order to improve the MAD approach, the paper proposes a modified model where the multiplicative tree is replaced with an additive one. In addition, methods of ‘additive volatility’ calculation and ‘dividend’ adjustments were suggested.

scholarly journals Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doron Greenberg ◽  
Michael Byalsky ◽  
Asher Yahalom
Keyword(s):  
Wind Energy ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Real Options Analysis ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Renewable Energy Investment

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts for the ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations both in the solar and in the wind energy, with a purpose to improve the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique is widely applied in many studies for valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Hence, we apply in this study the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel.

scholarly journals Valuation of Decision Flexibility and Strategic Value in Coal Gasification Projects with the Option-To-Switch between Different Outputs

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2826
Author(s):  
Piotr W. Saługa ◽  
Paweł Grzesiak ◽  
Jacek Kamiński
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Coal Gasification ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Methanol Production ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Real Options Valuation ◽  
Strategic Value

Coal gasification has been promoted as a sophisticated clean energy technology alternative to coal burning these days. Aside from the usual technical difficulties, economic issues of such projects—especially valuation challenges—are important problems that practitioners usually struggle with. This is because of the major extent of managerial flexibility linked with specific characteristics of coal gasification projects, in particular, possibilities to mothball/restart manufacturing lines, or change between different outputs. The value of such flexibilities may be well assessed by real options valuations. The aim of this paper is to show that for the coal gasification technologies the real options valuation is more suitable than traditional discounted cash flow technique. This approach was applied to calculate an integrated plant that can produce either electricity or methanol. As the valuation approach the multiplicative stochastic process was used. As a consequence, binomial lattices of end-product (electricity and methanol) were developed. Then, in regard to them (reference instruments), two corresponding lattices of net cash flows (consecutive instruments) were created. In the end, two trees of switching option value were developed—one for electricity production as an initial mode, and the second for methanol production, delivering expanded net present (strategic) value.

scholarly journals Real Options and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis to Assess Strategic Investment Projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnė Pivorienė
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Analysis ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Real Options Approach

Abstract In today’s uncertain and highly competitive business environment, the difficulty to make strategic investment decisions is growing. The dominant discounted cash flow analysis requires the assumption of perfect certainty of project cash flows. However, under uncertainty traditional DCF approach falls short of providing adequate strategic decision support, and this situation demands new methods for investment evaluation. Real options approach (ROA) has shown the potential for valuation of strategic corporate investment decisions and managerial flexibility in situations of high uncertainty. Under ROA, projects are viewed as real options that can be valued using financial option pricing techniques. This framework allows their owner to keep investment options open and to benefit from the upside potential of an opportunity while controlling the downside risk. The main aim of this research is to investigate the feasibility of real options approach and traditional DCF analysis for assessment of strategic investment projects under environmental uncertainty.

scholarly journals Dealing with uncertainties in the biotechnology industry: The use of real options reasoning

2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Remer ◽  
Siah Hwee Ang ◽  
Charles Baden-Fuller
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Decision Tools ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
The Face ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Biotechnology Companies

Managers of biotechnology companies face great technological and market risks in making investment decisions. Traditional investment decision tools such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) approaches are often deemed insufficient in the face of the highly uncertain environment surrounding biotechnology projects. More recently, there is an increasing interest in real options approaches, which, in contrast to DCF, explicitly takes into account the managerial flexibility to respond to changing internal and external conditions during the course of the project. It is this flexibility that makes real options reasoning not only perceived to be superior for evaluating projects, but also for developing value-enhancing strategies. However, there is considerable confusion about when the real options approach might be applicable in practice, be it in a formal or an informal way. Based on insights derived from interviews with European biotechnology investors and managers, this study provides an overview of the potential benefits and limitations real options thinking has on evaluating and managing risky projects, particularly with respect to biotechnology companies.

scholarly journals The real options method applied to decision making – an investment analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 562-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Brittes Benitez ◽  
Mateus José do Rêgo Ferreira Lima
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
The Real ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
Building Project ◽  
The Impact

Goal: This study aims to assess the impact of using the method of real options in investment analysis through a case study on a retail firm. Design / Methodology / Approach: It was targeted the applications of the real options method in a different type of environment and it was compared to another method more commonly used, the discounted cash flow method (DCF). The implementation and assessment of the real options method was investigated by means of a case study conducted in an investment analysis in a retail units firm. Results: The use of the real options method showed a more concise applicability over the DCF method. The results show that the project’s value, after the inclusion of managerial flexibility, increased significantly, which indicates that the analysis of the discounted cash flow undervalued the investment in question, since it disregarded the flexibility to expand or abandon the project. Limitations of the investigation: The presented method is proper to long-term processes where it is possible to make changes during the project. Investments in this sector usually are more related to short and medium-term decisions, making the application difficult due to the short decision-making period available to the managers. Practical Implications: The study provided the incorporation of flexibility through different pathways during the building project in a retail units firm. It was showed different scenarios where practitioners could decide among expanding, proceeding, reducing or abandoning the retail units based on the characteristics of their investments. Originality/value: The results obtained are an indication of this methodology to industrial businesses that are relatively volatile and that need a certain degree of flexibility in order to burgeon, such as the case of the retailing sector.

scholarly journals The Method of Real Options in the Evaluation of Strategic and Investment Decisions

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-45
Author(s):  
Гераськина ◽  
A. Geraskina
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Option Price ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Important Addition ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow Method

The method of real options is one of the new approaches to estimate investment projects’ cost and it is an important addition to discounted cash flow method. Real option significantly increases the efficiency of the project due to the possibility of decision-making during its implementation. This aspect is especially important in unstable environmental conditions. The main differences between the financial and real options are presented. The differences of valuation of investment projects by the real options method and net present value are examined. The article presents the types of real options, as well as the methods of calculating the option price.

The Right of Acquisition: Options in Commercial Real Estate

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Craig Furfine ◽  
Mitchell Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Right

In April 2012 Bill Nichols, a financial analyst at the real estate investment firm Koenig Capital, was about to enter a unique lease renegotiation. One of Koenig's tenants, Hasperat Inc., had sixteen years left on its long-term lease of the Kelley Building, a 165,000-square-foot office building in downtown Cleveland. The lease contained a clause giving Hasperat the option to buy the Kelley Building from Koenig. When Nichols tried to place a mortgage on the property to take advantage of low interest rates, he learned that the existence of this option in the lease contract prevented lenders from offering Koenig their lowest rates. As a result, Nichols had been tasked with renegotiating the lease to remove the option clause. This unexpected event offered Nichols the opportunity to use his financial skills. He needed to calculate the fair value of the purchase option to be able to justify to his superiors by how much they should compensate Hasperat. Students will step into the role of Bill Nichols and apply real options modeling techniques to value the purchase option in Hasperat's lease.After reading and analyzing the case, students will be able to: Apply real options theory to the valuation of a purchase option in a commercial real estate lease Identify the common mistakes in applying traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to financial problems with option components

Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Improve Ceramic R&D Investment Decisions

2010 ◽  
Vol 105-106 ◽  
pp. 798-801
Author(s):  
Bao Cheng He ◽  
Hong Tao Jiang ◽  
Shu Zhi Yao ◽  
Bao Yuan He
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Valuation Model ◽  
Managerial Flexibility ◽  
D Investment

The success of ceramic companies is highly dependent on research and development (R&D). Thus, a pivotal aim of management is to allocate resources to the best scientific and financial R&D projects. But the valuation of ceramic R&D is a difficult task for managers. The conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) methods fail to consider the value of managerial flexibility provided by R&D projects. Real options Analysis (ROA) offers a superior way of capturing the value of flexibility. It enables decision-maker to value projects more accurately by incorporating managerial flexibilities into the valuation model. However, ROA can’t effectively deal with the volatility of parameters in itself under high uncertain circumstance. In view of the limitation of ROA, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation to solve the parameters volatility problems. In the end, the case study proves that Monte Carlo simulation can improve R&D investment decisions, especially for highly unpredictable ceramic R&D projects.

Project portfolio valuation using real options

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-146
Author(s):  
A.B. Lanchakov ◽  
S.A. Filin ◽  
A.Zh. Yakushev
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Expected Effect ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Financial Options ◽  
Portfolio Efficiency ◽  
The Face ◽  
Effective Development

Subject. The article analyzes the expected effect of a portfolio of projects in the face of risk and uncertainty, when using real options. Objectives. The purpose is to offer a more objective formula to assess the expected impact of a portfolio of projects for real investment objects under risk and uncertainty, using real options, and provide recommendations for improving the portfolio efficiency. Methods. The study draws on methods of real options and evaluation of investment projects through the real option value, the cash flow discounting method, synthesis, and mathematical modeling. Results. We systematized the main types of real options and developed a formula for calculating the expected effect of project portfolio implementation. The said formula shows that considering the additional long-term costs embedded in a portfolio of real options, which are associated with the use of these real options, and, therefore, reducing the overall risk of projects and the entire portfolio, permit to improve the objectivity of such calculations. Conclusions. When analyzing real options that have real assets as underlying instruments, it is often impossible to apply the computational formulae for financial options, as they differ significantly. The systematization of the main types of real options helps expand the range of application of management solutions. The offered formula enables to improve the efficiency of project insurance under risk and uncertainty and to use additional opportunities for effective development of the company.

Real options in business valuation and investment

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Андрей Гусев ◽  
Andrey Gusev
Keyword(s):  
Graduate Students ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Scientific Publication ◽  
Investment Analysis ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Business Valuation ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
University Teachers ◽  
Specific Calculations

In the presented monograph discusses the major problems associated with the development of methods of investment analysis and application of real options method in the assessment of efficiency of investment projects and valuation of enterprise (business). Disclosed the content of the basic models of evaluation of real options, a classification of real options, the theoretical principles supported by specific calculations. Scientific publication intended for graduate students, University teachers, scientific employees, specializing in the field of management of investment activity of enterprises and business valuation.

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