scholarly journals Examining the Export-led Growth Hypothesis: The case of Croatia

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vlatka Bilas ◽  
Mile Bošnjak ◽  
Sanja Franc
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Equilibrium State ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Subsequent Period ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between gross domestic product and exports of goods and services in Croatia between 1996 and 2012. The research results confirmed unidirectional Granger causality from the exports of goods and services to gross domestic product. Following the Engle-Granger approach to cointegration, long-term equilibrium as well as short-term correlation between the observed variables was identified. Exports of goods and services and gross domestic product (GDP) in Croatia move together. If the two observed variables move away from equilibrium, they will return to their long-term equilibrium state at a velocity of 24.46% in the subsequent period. In accordance with the results, we found evidence supporting the export-led growth hypothesis in Croatia. As the outcomes indicated, to recover the economy, Croatia should put more emphasis on the development of exporting sectors.

scholarly journals Dynamic Effects of Foreign Portfolio Investment on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
O.W. Toyin ◽  
Ad. E. Oludayol
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Portfolio Investment ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
The Relationship

The slow growth rate and the deficit of full-fledged financial security have created the preconditions for studying the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth. In previous literature, key emphases on this issue were studied in the short term and in terms of static functioning of the economy. Thus, this article purposely studied the dynamic nature of the development of the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2018. The use of the Augmented-Dickey Fuller test confirmed the precondition for adopting dynamic techniques to test the significant role of foreign portfolio investment (among other analyzed factors – domestic savings, government capital expenditures, market capitalization) in the formation of gross domestic product. The use of the lag selection method allowed to determine the optimal lag for estimating the autoregressive distributed model, which substantiates the effectiveness and reliability of the autoregressive distributed lag model. The information base of the study was the statistical bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The results of empirical estimations in the short term showed that domestic savings had significant and negative impact on gross domestic product. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that foreign investment, domestic savings, government spending and market capitalization determine long-term trends in gross domestic product formation in Nigeria. Practically, the empirical result revealed that the presence of a significant deficit of domestic savings in Nigeria creates obstacles to successful economic growth in the country both in the short and long term; portfolio foreign investment accelerates economic growth in the long run to a greater extent than in the short run. Keywords: autoregressive distributed model, Dickie-Fuller test, economic growth, foreign investment, double gap theory.

scholarly journals ANALISA HUBUNGAN ANTARA PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO DAN EKSPOR INDONESIA (UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-305
Author(s):  
Debora Silvia Hutagalung ◽  
◽  
Junaidi Siahaan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Trade Theory ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Theory ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Domestic Products

This study entitled "Analysis of The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product and Indonesian Exports (Granger causality test)”. This research was conducted because of the dualism of the theory between the two variables. In macroeconomic theory, the relationship between Gross Domestic Product is one of the similarities, because exports contribute to Gross Domestic Products on the demand side, while neoclassical trade theory emphasizes causality related to household production and assistance for exports.The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and exports. This study uses several analytical methods: Unit Root Test, CointegrationTest, Granger Causality Test using the E-views program7 and using Quarterly data.The results of the estimation of this study are the estimation of the relationship in GDP and exports, or in other words the Gross Domestic Product affects Indonesia's exports. This is concluded based on the estimation results that can be seen from the statistical F value that is greater than the f-table (8.958205> 3.841466) on the Null hypothesis. GDP is not an Export Granger with a 95% confidence level. This means, GDP affects exports When GDP can affect the level of exports in the intervals of 2000 to 2012.Keywords:Gross Domestic Product(GDP), Exports, Granger Causality Test

scholarly journals Analysis of The Effect of Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Balance of Payments in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 361-374
Author(s):  
Muammar Rinaldi ◽  
Shinta Arida Hutagalung ◽  
Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to analyze the effect of the short and long term gross domestic product, exchange rate, and inflation on Indonesia's balance of payments. The data used in this study are secondary data which is obtained indirectly with the period of 1995 to 2015. Data sources were obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data collection method used in this study with the indirect method is documentation through recording or copying data from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis model used is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the regression model of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) regarding the effect of independent variables such as Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product and Inflation Against the Dependent dependent variable in Indonesia, then it can some conclusions are presented, namely from several independent variables that are tried and included in the savings equation in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) for the short term, namely the gross domestic product variable, the inflation rate, and exchange rate. In the long run there are 2 (two) significant variables, namely gross domestic product and the exchange rate. While inflation is not significant. For the short term, there is 1 (one) significant variable, namely the exchange rate. Thus, only exchange rate variables are significant in both the short and long term. With only 1 (one) significant independent variable both in the long term and short term, it can be concluded that the exchange rate in the long term and short term is the main determining factor that affects the Balance of Payments in Indonesia. In the long run, Independent variables such as Gross Domestic Product and the exchange rate on the dependent variable Balance of Payments in Indonesia have a significant effect on the dependent variable Balance of Payments. Whereas in the short run, the exchange rate variable has a significant effect, and for other independent variables such as the GDP variable and the inflation rate does not have a significant effect.

scholarly journals THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP, ENERGY CONSUMPTION, POPULATION, AND OIL PRICE: EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 100-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngoc Thuy Ho ◽  
Wann Yi Wu ◽  
Adriana Amaya Rivas ◽  
Phuoc Thien Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose of this study: This study aims to examine the relationship between energy consumption, gross domestic product, and population for the period of 1985-2015. Methodology: The research questions for this study are as follows: (1) What is the association among energy consumption, GDP, population, and oil price? (2) Which suggestions can be provided on the basis of the research findings? Unit root test, co-integration test, VECM model, and Granger causality are employed to analyze the association among the aforementioned variables. Main Findings: Firstly, the results show the existence of co-integration among the variables. By employing the Granger causality, the research findings demonstrate a unidirectional causality running from population to energy consumption, a unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to gross domestic product, and a unidirectional causality running from population to gross domestic product. Implications: With these results, it is suggested that Vietnam should promote the growth of the population and the energy policies to generate economic growth. Novelty: To the best of our knowledge, this study extends the scarce literature that provides empirical findings regarding this issue.

Analisis Pengaruh Perdagangan Internasional terhadap GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Indonesia (Periode 2011-2016)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-42
Author(s):  
ANDI TRIYAWAN ◽  
Amalia Syafira Novitasari
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Effect

The purpose of this study were determine: (1) The short term effect of export and import of Indonesia years 2011-2016, (2) The most dominant variable which affect to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of Indonesia years 2011-2016. The data were collection of this study is taken from BPS. Meanwhile, the data were collected throught documentation. Based on regrecy, it’s known that internasional trade affects negatively and significantly to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) either long term or short term.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 94
Author(s):  
Daouda Coulibaly ◽  
Fulgence Zran Goueu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between exports and economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire. In order to achieve this objective, annual data for the period 1960-2017 were tested by using the cointegration approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith, including the causality test of Breitung and Schreiber. According to our analysis it is only exports that drive economic growth and not the opposite. Exports act positively and significantly on economic growth in the short term as well as in the long term. The causality test of Breitung and schreiber indicates a one-way long-run causal relationship ranging from exports to gross domestic product (GDP). All those results show that exports are a source of Ivorian economic growth.

scholarly journals PENGARUH TINGKAT PEMBIAYAAN PERBANKAN SYARIAH, JUB DAN PDB TERHADAP SBI SYARIAH PERIODE 2003-2013 DENGAN PENDEKATAN ECM

INFERENSI ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Fitri Amalia
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Research Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variable

The purpose of this research is to analyze in the short term and long term betweenthree independent variable namely: Islamic Banking Financing, Money Supply(JUB) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) against Certificates of Bank IndonesiaSharia (SBIS), a period of 2003-2013.The data used in this research is data quarterly(per three months) of march 2003 until september 2013 which are obtainedfrom the monthly reports economic indicators of the Badan Pusat Statistik andmonthly reports macro of Bank Indonesia.This research use Error CorrectionModel approach to see the short-term and long-term relationship between theindependent variable against the dependent variable. The result showed in thelong term only variable Islamic Banking Financing affect Certificates of BankIndonesia Sharia (SBIS ).While in the short-term Certificates of Bank IndonesiaSharia (SBIS ) affected Islamic Banking Financing and Gross Domestic Product.

scholarly journals Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Impor Kedelai di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 224-229
Author(s):  
Ganang Sukma Buana ◽  
Rusdarti Rusdarti
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to determine the effect of independent variables (soybean production, soybean consumption, gross domestic product, local soybean price and imported soybean price) to the dependent variable (import of soybean) both in the short and long term. This study uses time series or time series data. The analytical model used is an econometric analysis tool error correction model ECM and OLS. This model can explain both short-term and long-term behavior. The result of the research shows that (1) the production variable in the short term does not have an effect, while in the long run it has negative and significant effect to the import of Indonesian soybean. (2) consumption variables in the short and long term have a positive and significant influence to Indonesian soybean import. (3) Gross domestic product in both the short and long term do not affect the import of soybean. (4) local price variables in the short and long term have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian soybean import. (5) import price variable in the short term has a negative effect while in the long term does not affect the import of Indonesian soybean. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel independen (produksi kedelai, konsumsi kedelai,  produk domestik bruto, harga kedelai lokal dan harga kedelai impor) terhadap variabel dependen (impor kedelai) baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Penelitian ini menggunakan data runtun waktu atau time series. Model analisis yang digunakan adalah alat analisis ekonometrika model koreksi kesalahan ECM dan OLS. Model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan (1) variabel produksi dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh sedangkan pada jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap impor kedelai Indonesia. (2) variabel konsumsi dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap impor kedelai Indonesia. (3) Variabel produk domestik bruto dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang  tidak berpengaruh dengan impor kedelai. (4) variabel harga lokal dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap impor kedelai Indonesia. (5) variabel harga impor dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh  negatif sedangkan pada jangka panjang tidak berpengaruh terhadap impor kedelai Indonesia.

scholarly journals Cointegration Analysis between Tuna and Skipjack Exports with Fisheries Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Aceh Province

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 486
Author(s):  
Vira Nanda Maidila ◽  
Safrida Safrida ◽  
Yusya Abubakar
Keyword(s):  
Regional Economics ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Aceh Province ◽  
The Relationship

Fishery is one of the main sub-sector contributing the Aceh regional economics activities. Aceh fish production, especially Tuna and Skipjack keep increasing from 2014 to 2018. Therefore, there is a need to analyze the relationship between tuna and skipjack exports, and the Fisheries Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Aceh Province in the last few years (2011-2019). The purpose of this study was to see how cointegration of the long-term and short-term between the export of tuna and skipjack commodities in Aceh province with the growth of fisheries Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The method used in this research is the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method with data processing using Stata SE-64 software. The results of the analysis show that there is a cointegration between the variable export value of tuna and skipjack commodities and the Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB) of Fisheries of Aceh Province both in the long and short terms.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document