Why Does Indonesia Have a High Covid-19 Case-Fatality Rate?

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken the world by storm, but the magnitude of its impact differs from country to country. As of August 2020, Indonesia’s COVID-19 case-fatality rate is higher than the world average. The aim of our research is to find out why Indonesia has a high COVID-19 case-fatality rate. Using OLS regression models, we found the number of COVID-19 related deaths, the number of COVID-19 tests performed, population age, population, voice and accountability index, and control of corruption index are significant predictors of a country’s COVID-19 case-fatality rate. Based on our results, we conclude that Indonesia’s COVID-19 case-fatality rate is higher than it is supposed to be, mainly because of a lack of COVID-19 testing and accurate public information.

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Egypt's COVID-19 Recent Happenings and Perspectives: A Mini-Review

Frontiers in Public Health ◽

10.3389/fpubh.2021.696082 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

AbdulRahman A. Saied ◽

Asmaa A. Metwally ◽

Norah Abdullah Bazekh Madkhali ◽

Shafiul Haque ◽

Kuldeep Dhama

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Animal Origin ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Health Concerns ◽

The World ◽

The Usa ◽

Egyptian Government ◽

Low Prevalence ◽

And Control

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has affected countries across the world. While the zoonotic aspects of SARS-CoV-2 are still under investigation, bats and pangolins are currently cited as the animal origin of the virus. Several types of vaccines against COVID-19 have been developed and are being used in vaccination drives across the world. A number of countries are experiencing second and third waves of the pandemic, which have claimed nearly four million lives out of the 180 million people infected globally as of June 2021. The emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and mutants are posing high public health concerns owing to their rapid transmissibility, higher severity, and in some cases, ability to infect vaccinated people (vaccine breakthrough). Here in this mini-review, we specifically looked at the efforts and actions of the Egyptian government to slow down and control the spread of COVID-19. We also review the COVID-19 statistics in Egypt and the possible reasons behind the low prevalence and high case fatality rate (CFR%), comparing Egypt COVID-19 statistics with China (the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic) and the USA, Brazil, India, Italy, and France (the first countries in which the numbers of patients infected with COVID-19). Additionally, we have summarized the SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccines used in Egypt, and the use of medicinal plants as preventive and curative options.

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Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20886 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Youssef Kada

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Case Fatality ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Therapeutic Protocol ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

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COVID-19 in Sudan

The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries ◽

10.3855/jidc.14520 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (02) ◽

pp. 204-208

Author(s):

Ayman Ahmed ◽

Nouh Saad Mohamed ◽

Sarah Misbah EL-Sadig ◽

Lamis Ahmed Fahal ◽

Ziad Bakri Abelrahim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health Systems ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Control Measures ◽

Religious Practices ◽

Mass Gathering ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

High Case Fatality Rate ◽

The Government ◽

And Control

The steadily growing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging health systems worldwide including Sudan. In Sudan, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 13th March 2020, and up to 11 November 2020 there were 14,401 confirmed cases of which 9,535 cases recovered and the rest 3,750 cases were under treatment. Additionally, 1,116 deaths were reported, indicating a relatively high case fatality rate of 7.7%. Several preventive and control measures were implemented by the government of Sudan and health partners, including the partial lockdown of the country, promoting social distancing, and suspending mass gathering such as festivals and performing religious practices in groups. However, new cases still emerging every day and this could be attributed to the noncompliance of the individuals to the advocated preventive measurements.

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2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia: an unusual lung ultrasound presentation.

10.21203/rs.3.rs-25490/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Letizia Consoli ◽

Vittorio Bendotti ◽

Sara Cicchinelli ◽

Federico Gaioni ◽

Paola Prandolini ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Lung Ultrasound ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Ground Glass Opacity ◽

Public Health Emergency ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Chest Computed Tomography ◽

Ultrasound Findings ◽

The World ◽

Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) was first reported in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread around the world, leading to an international emerging public health emergency. As reported from Chinese experiences, approximately 20% of patients had a severe course, requiring intensive care, with an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. In diagnosis, chest computed tomography most commonly showed ground-glass opacity with or without consolidative patterns.Herein we report a case of a patient affected by COVID-19 pneumonia referred in the emergency department of our institution on 4 April 2020 with peculiar lung ultrasound findings.

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Python Programming in PyPI for Translational Medicine

International Journal of Translational Medicine ◽

10.3390/ijtm1030019 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 323-331

Author(s):

Yoshiyasu Takefuji

Keyword(s):

Translational Medicine ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Lag Time ◽

The Internet ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Target Values ◽

The World ◽

Python Programming ◽

Python Package

This is the world’s first tutorial article on Python Packaging for beginners and practitioners for translational medicine or medicine in general. This tutorial will allow researchers to demonstrate and showcase their tools on PyPI packages around the world. Nowadays, for translational medicine, researchers need to deal with big data. This paper describes how to build an executable Python Package Index (PyPI) code and package. PyPI is a repository of software for the Python programming language with 5,019,737 files and 544,359 users (programmers) as of 19 October 2021. First, programmers must understand how to scrape a dataset over the Internet; second, they must read the dataset file in csv format; third, build a program to compute the target values; fourth, convert the Python program to the PyPI package.; and fifth, upload the PyPI package. This paper depicts a covidlag executable package as an example for calculating the accurate case fatality rate (CFR) and the lag time from infection to death. You can install the covidlag by pip terminal command and test it. This paper also introduces deathdaily and scorecovid packages on PyPI Stats, which can inform how many users have downloaded the specified PyPI package. The usefulness and applicability of a developed tool can be verified by PyPI Stats with the number of downloaded users.

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The Uncertainties Underlying Herd Immunity against COVID-19

10.20944/preprints202007.0159.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Farid Rahimi ◽

Amin Talebi Bezmin Abadi

Keyword(s):

Antiviral Therapy ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Healthcare Systems ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Rate Transmission ◽

The Social ◽

And Control

Herd immunity happens when a relatively large proportion of a population becomes infected by an agent, subsequently recovers, and attains immunity against the same agent. That proportion thus indirectly protects the naïve population by preventing the spread of the infection. Herd immunity has been suggested to interrupt and control the COVID-19 pandemic. However, relying on establishing herd immunity can be catastrophic considering the virulence and lethality of SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile our understanding of the pathogenesis, case-fatality rate, transmission routes, and antiviral therapy for COVID-19 remains limited now. Interrupting or slowing the COVID-19 transmission seems more opportune than vaccination, antiviral therapy, or herd immunity, all of which will take some time to yield. Thus, social distancing, face-masking, and hygiene are the most appropriate immediate countermeasures. Because the social fabrics, economic implications, and local demands of various nations are unique, early relaxation of restrictions may seem hasty particularly when fatality rates are high, or when the healthcare systems could be inadequate or become inundated. Conclusively, avoiding any overwhelmingly risky approach in fighting the pandemic is prudent.

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Policy Disparities in Fighting COVID-19 Among Japan, Italy, Singapore and China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-77509/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaohan Wang ◽

Leiyu Shi ◽

Yuyao Zhang ◽

Haiqian Chen ◽

Gang Sun

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Epidemic Control ◽

Growth Trend ◽

Control Policies ◽

And Control

Abstract Objective This study systematically summarizes the COVID-19 prevention and control policies of Japan, Italy, China and Singapore in order to provide policy basis for other countries currently coping with the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods This study summarizes the epidemic prevention and control policies in Japan, Italy, China, and Singapore, and analyzes the effects of policies in the four countries using official statistics.Results As of May 27, 2020, the growth trend of new cases in Japan, Italy, China and Singapore has all stabilized. However, the cumulative number of confirmed cases (231139) and case-fatality rate (14.3%) in Italy far exceeded those in the other three countries, and the effect of epidemic control was inferior. Singapore began to experience a domestic resurgence after April 5, with a cumulative number of confirmed cases reaching 32876, but the case-fatality rate remained extremely low (0.1%). The growth of cumulative confirmed cases in China (84547) is almost stagnant, and the case-fatality rate is low (5.5%). The growth of cumulative confirmed cases in Japan (16661) increased slowly, and the case-fatality rate (4.8%) was slightly lower than that in China.Conclusion This study divides the epidemic prevention and control policies of the four countries into two categories: the blocking measures taken by China and Singapore, and the mitigation measures taken by Japan and Italy. According to the results of epidemic control in the four countries, we can conclude that the blocking measures are more effective. Pay attention to the admission of mild patients and cases tracking as the core strategy of blocking measures, which can be considered in countries all over the world.

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A new method to calculate the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei of China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-38907/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Lei Cao ◽

Ting-ting Huang ◽

Jun-xia Zhang ◽

Qi Qin ◽

Si-yu Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Large Deviation ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Cure Rate ◽

Wuhan City ◽

Notification Data ◽

And Control ◽

Case Notification

Abstract The worst-hit area of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China was Wuhan City and its affiliated Hubei Province, where the outbreak has been well controlled. The case fatality rate (CFR) is the most direct indicator to evaluate the hazards of an infectious disease. However, most reported CFR on COVID-19 represent a large deviation from reality. We aimed to establish a more accurate way to estimate the CFR of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei and compare it to the reality. The daily case notification data of COVID-19 from December 8, 2019, to May 1, 2020, in Wuhan and Hubei were collected from the bulletin of the Chinese authorities. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was calculated from the numbers of deaths and the number of cured cases, the two numbers occurred on the same estimated diagnosis dates. The instant CFR of COVID-19 was 1.3%-9.4% in Wuhan and 1.2%-7.4% in Hubei from January 1 to May 1, 2020. It has stabilized at 7.69% in Wuhan and 6.62% in Hubei since early April. The cure rate was between 90.1% and 98.8% and finally stabilized at 92.3% in Wuhan and stabilized at 93.5% in Hubei. The mortality rates were 34.5/100 000 in Wuhan and 7.61/100 000 in Hubei. In conclusion, this approach reveals a way to accurately calculate the CFR, which may provide a basis for the prevention and control of infectious diseases.

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Global Pandemic Trends of COVID-19 in 2020

10.21203/rs.3.rs-625008/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hai-Zhen Chen ◽

Bo Cai ◽

Jian-Guo Chen

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

United States ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The United States ◽

Cumulative Number ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

The World

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been global threaten to public health. This paper provides perspective to the decision-making for public health control of the pandemic or the spread of epidemic.Methods: According to the WHO global reported database, we developed and used the number of cumulative cases, and the number of cumulative deaths to calculate and analyze rates of incidence, mortality, and fatality by country, with respect to the 30 highest outbreak (Top 30) countries.Results： As of December 31, 2020, of the global population of 7.585 billion, the cumulative number of reported cases was 81,475,053, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,798,050. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 1074.13 per 100,000 population, the mortality rate was 23.70 per 100,000, and the case fatality rate was 2.21%. Among the Top 30 countries, the five countries with the highest number of reported cumulative cases were, in rank, the United States (19,346,790 cases), India (10,266,674), Brazil (7,563,551), Russia (3,159,297) and France (2,556,708), and the five countries with the highest number of cumulative deaths were the United States (335,789 cases), Brazil (192,681), India (148,738), Mexico (123,845) and Italy (73,604). Globally, the countries with the highest incidence rate were, in rank, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, San Marino, and Czechia; the countries with the highest mortality rate were, in rank, San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Italy, and North Macedonia. The highest fatality rate was found in Yemen, Mexico, Montserrat, Isle of Man, and Ecuador, respectively. In China, 96,673 cases of COVID-19 and 4788 deaths were reported in 2020, ranking the 78th and the 43rd, respectively, in the world. The incidence rate and mortality rate were 6.90/105 and 0.34/105, respectively, ranking 207th and 188th in the world. The case fatality rate was 4.95%, ranking 11th in the world.Conclusions： The COVID-19 prevalence is still on the rise, and the turning points of incidence and mortality are not yet forecasted. Personal protection, anti-epidemic measures and efforts from public health personnel, medical professionals, biotechnology R&D personnel, effectiveness of the vaccination programs and the governments, are the important factors to determine the future prevalence of this coronavirus disease.

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Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Around The World: An Adjusted Estimation

10.21203/rs.3.rs-151186/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽

Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽

Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽

Marzieh Mahmudimanesh ◽

Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei

Keyword(s):

Diabetes Mellitus ◽

Health Status ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Total Expenditure ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

The World ◽

Per Capita ◽

Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract Background: The present study is designed to predict the global adjusted values for mortality rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19 around the world. Methods: This research was conducted at the ecological level using data from 100 countries which were chosen randomly. The adjusted values were predicted using beta regression considering predictive factors such as total expenditure on health per capita, expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years, hospital beds (per 1000 population), physicians (per 1000 population), nurses (per 1000 population), prevalence of smoking, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and number of confirmed tests in each country. In the end, applying Monte Carlo simulation, the adjusted values of mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated.Results: The results of this study showed that two factors including percentage of population ages 65 and above (P=0.03) and Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (P = 0.04) had a statistically significant relationship with the case fatality rate. Moreover, there was a statistically significant relationship between the mortality rate and life expectancy (P = 0.02), total expenditure on health per capita (P < 0.001), nurses (Per 1000 Population) (P=0.04), and the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (P=0.04). The mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated to be 0.000001 and 0.026, respectively.Conclusion: It seems that what can cause global concern is not the case fatality rate of the disease, but its mortality rate, which is directly related to the health status of a community. The worse the health status of a community, the greater the number of infected people likely to be there, that ultimately increases the mortality rate of the disease in the community.

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