scholarly journals Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 increases fatality-rate for patients under age of 70 years and hospitalization risk overall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meryem Cetin ◽  
Pervin Ozlem Balci ◽  
Hakan Sivgin ◽  
Sirin Cetin ◽  
Ayse Ulgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Analyze Data

AbstractThe emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is a challenge to the control of this pandemic. It is therefore important to collect and to analyze data related to the infection caused by different variants. We have obtained more than 3,700 COVID-19 patients between April 2020 and March 2021 from Tokat, Turkey (roughly 3,100 outpatients and close to 600 inpatients) where about 30% were infected with Alpha variant (B.1.1.7). Descriptive statistics was used to characterize different subgroups. Both logistic regression and cause-specific Cox survival analysis of competing-risk was run on inpatients, to examine the impact of Alpha variant on hospitalization, on mortality and on other factors. We observed that the Alpha variant is over-represented in inpatients than outpatients so infection by Alpha variant increases the chance for hospitalization. The impact of Alpha variant on mortality seems to depend on the patient's age. For patients under age of 70, the case-fatality-rate was 0.84% (5.3%) for patients without (with) Alpha variant (Fisher's test P-value = 2.4 × 10−10). For patients above age of 70, the trend is opposite: the case-fatality-rate is 31.5% (13.6%) for patients without (with) Alpha variant (Fisher's test P-value = 0.0016). The two opposite trends would cancel each other, making other analyses such as cause-specific Cox regression and logistic regression non-significant. The Alpha variant increases the risk for hospitalization, increases the case-fatality-rate for lower age group, and decreases the case-fatality-rate for the upper age group. If the increase of case-fatality-rate in not the most senior group holds true, it should provide useful information for a vaccination planning to counter the impact of Alpha variants.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Meta-analysis and metaregression of risk factors associated with mortality in hip fracture patients during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Firas J. Raheman ◽  
Djamila M. Rojoa ◽  
Jvalant Nayan Parekh ◽  
Reshid Berber ◽  
Robert Ashford
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Pooled Analysis ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIncidence of hip fractures has remained unchanged during the pandemic with overlapping vulnerabilities observed in patients with hip fractures and those infected with COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the independent impact of COVID-19 infection on the mortality of these patients. Healthcare databases were systematically searched over 2-weeks from 1st–14th November 2020 to identify eligible studies assessing the impact of COVID-19 on hip fracture patients. Meta-analysis of proportion was performed to obtain pooled values of prevalence, incidence and case fatality rate of hip fracture patients with COVID-19 infection. 30-day mortality, excess mortality and all-cause mortality were analysed using a mixed-effects model. 22 studies reporting 4015 patients were identified out of which 2651 (66%) were assessed during the pandemic. An excess mortality of 10% was seen for hip fractures treated during the pandemic (OR 2.00, p = 0.007), in comparison to the pre-pandemic controls (5%). Estimated mortality of COVID-19 positive hip fracture patients was four-fold (RR 4.59, p < 0.0001) and 30-day mortality was 38.0% (HR 4.73, p < 0.0001). The case fatality rate for COVID-19 positive patients was 34.74%. Between-study heterogeneity for the pooled analysis was minimal (I2 = 0.00) whereas, random effects metaregression identified subgroup heterogeneity for male gender (p < 0.001), diabetes (p = 0.002), dementia (p = 0.001) and extracapsular fractures (p = 0.01) increased risk of mortality in COVID-19 positive patients.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Healthcare Planning: Predicting Mortality and the Role of the Herd Immunity Barrier in the General Population

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 5228
Author(s):  
Julio Emilio Marco-Franco ◽  
Natividad Guadalajara-Olmeda ◽  
Silvia González-de Julián ◽  
David Vivas-Consuelo
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Daily Monitoring ◽  
Age Related ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Carlos Iii

Using a mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating data on excess of mortality compared to the corresponding period of the previous year obtained from the daily monitoring of mortality in Spain (MoMo), the prediction of total number of casualties in Spain for the first outbreak has been computed. From this figure, and following a stepwise meta-analysis of available reports, the case fatality rate (CFR) and the infectious case fatality rate (IFR) for the outbreak have been estimated. As the impact of age on these rates is notable, it is proposed to include an age-related adjusted fatality ratio in future comparative analyses between studies, calculated by adjusting the results by risk ratio to a reference age band (e.g., 60–69). From the casualty figures, and the corresponding CFR and IFR ratios, the forecast of serologically positive cases in the general Spanish population has been estimated at approximately 1% (0.87–1.3%) of the samples. If the data are confirmed by the ongoing study of the Carlos III Institute, until a vaccine is found, the immunity acquired in the general population after the infectious outbreak is far from the 65–70% herd immunity required as a barrier for COVID-19.

scholarly journals Mortality among the early cases of COVID-19 and its association with key comorbidities in a large state in South India

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 3882
Author(s):  
Suhas Bhat ◽  
Rohan Kolla ◽  
Shashank D. Shindhe ◽  
Surekha B. Munoli
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Large State ◽  
Death Time ◽  
The Impact

Background: The mortality associated with the pandemic COVID-19 is a subject of intense scrutiny as COVID-19 can cause severe disease leading to hospitalization in ICU and potentially death, especially in the elderly with comorbidities. A statistical analysis is carried out to study the impact of age, gender and comorbidities on deaths among early one lakh infected population of Karnataka, a large state in south India.Methods: Daily case fatality rate and adjusted case fatality rate (CFR) (adjusted to median death time) are estimated. The impacts of age, gender and comorbidities on mortality outcomes of COVID patients are studied.Results: The daily CFR on 27th July for Karnataka is estimated from the dataset to be 1.93%. However, the adjusted CFR based on the median number of days from diagnosis to death was found to be 2.15% (95% confidence interval 2%-2.3%) on that day. The deaths among male patients outnumber those in females. As far as age of the patients is concerned, more than 50% of the deaths occurred in the age group 50-60 and 60-70 years. Majority of deaths reported in the state were associated with at least one of the comorbidity. Diabetes mellitus and hypertension were the most significant comorbidities.Conclusions: The daily adjusted CFR for the study region is found to be lower than the CFR of the whole nation. Also the age, gender and comorbidities were found to be associated with the deaths as opposed to the infection alone. It was also deduced that, patients with a history of diabetes or hypertension or ischemic heart disease or a combination of any of these were most likely to experience severe outcomes of the infection. 

scholarly journals SEIHCRD Model for COVID-19 spread scenarios, disease predictions and estimates the basic reproduction number, case fatality rate, hospital, and ICU beds requirement

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avaneesh Singh ◽  
Manish Kumar Bajpai
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

We have proposed a new mathematical method, SEIHCRD-Model that is an extension of the SEIR-Model adding hospitalized and critical twocompartments. SEIHCRD model has seven compartments: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), hospitalized (H), critical (C), recovered (R), and deceased or death (D), collectively termed SEIHCRD. We have studied COVID- 19 cases of six countries, where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil, India, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. SEIHCRD model is estimating COVID-19 spread and forecasting under uncertainties, constrained by various observed data in the present manuscript. We have first collected the data for a specific period, then fit the model for death cases, got the values of some parameters from it, and then estimate the basic reproduction number over time, which is nearly equal to real data, infection rate, and recovery rate of COVID-19. We also compute the case fatality rate over time of COVID-19 most affected countries. SEIHCRD model computes two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily and the second one is total CFR. We analyze the spread and endpoint of COVID-19 based on these estimates. SEIHCRD model is time-dependent hence we estimate the date and magnitude of peaks of corresponding to the number of exposed cases, infected cases, hospitalized cases, critical cases, and the number of deceased cases of COVID-19 over time. SEIHCRD model has incorporated the social distancing parameter, different age groups analysis, number of ICU beds, number of hospital beds, and estimation of how much hospital beds and ICU beds are required in near future.

Mortality of tetanus at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 178-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
F I Ojini ◽  
M A Danesi
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
University Teaching ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Medical Wards

Records of 349 tetanus patients, aged 10 years and above, admitted to the Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Nigeria, between 1990 and 1999 were reviewed. The male:female ratio was 1.98:1, and the ages were between 10 and 88 years, with a mean age of 29.8 years. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) of tetanus was 36.96% (33.19% for men and 44.44% for women). The CFR is similar to that previously reported in the hospital, but higher than that reported from Europe and North America. The lowest CFR was in the 10-19-year age group, and there was a trend towards increasing CFR with increasing age. Tetanus patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) had a significantly higher CFR than those in the medical wards. Unlike in developed countries, where management of tetanus in ICU has resulted in a decrease in CFR, the CFR of tetanus at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital has not significantly reduced over the years.

scholarly journals Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 and Association With Sociodemographic Characteristics of Populations in Ecuador, 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karla Flores Sacoto ◽  
Galo Sánchez Del Hierro ◽  
Xavier Jarrín Estupiñan ◽  
Felipe Moreno-Piedrahita Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Morbidity Rate ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background COVID-19 has caused deaths worldwide affecting the most vulnerable population with different case fatality rates. Socioeconomic conditions have demonstrated a role regarding the spread of infections and mortality. Socioeconomic characteristics of Ecuador related to poverty, ethnicity and demographic characteristics increase the impact of COVID-19 in certain populations. Methods Objective To analyze the influence of demographic factors on the COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) in Ecuador. Design: cross sectional study. Setting 24 provinces in Ecuador-221 cantons. Population: data including 233.277 confirmed COVID-19 cases of Ecuador. Primary and secondary outcome measures COVID-19 CFR and crude cause-specific death rate weight calculated using province-country level data from health ministry of Ecuador in data website. Results Ecuadors CFR is 4,03%, analyzed by cantons the CFR increases to a median of 5,75%, with cantons like Playas with a CFR of 32,39%. The morbidity rate has a median of 795,31 per 100 000 hab. with the highest rate in Isabela-Galápagos (10185,49), Aguarico-Orellana (9506,75) and Baños-Tungurahua (4156,85). And the crude COVID-19 death rate has a median of 39,73 per 100 000 hab. with the highest rate in Penipe-Chimborazo (201,29), 24 de Mayo-Manabí (143,79) and San Pedro de Huaca-Carchi (134,36). The correlations show relations with sociodemographic factors like poverty, ethnicity and scholarity. Conclusion The CFR is the proxy indicator of COVID-19 impact in Ecuador and the analysis made by location give us new information about the specific impact of this disease.

scholarly journals Age-specific infection and death rates for human A(H5N1) avian influenza in Egypt

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (18) ◽  
Author(s):  
J P Dudley
Keyword(s):  
Influenza A ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
H5n1 Avian Influenza ◽  
Human H5n1 ◽  
Sex Biases ◽  
Age And Sex

The age-specific infection and death profiles among confirmed human cases of influenza A(H5N1) infection in Egypt differ markedly from those recorded in other countries. The case fatality rate among human H5N1 cases in Egypt is 34%, versus an average of 66% in other countries. In Egypt, children younger than 10 years comprise 48% of reported cases, nearly twice the global average of approximately 25%, and no H5N1 fatalities have been confirmed among individuals in this age group as of 23 April 2009. Females outnumber males among confirmed H5N1 cases by a factor of nearly 2:1, and 90% of reported fatalities in Egypt have been females. The evident age and sex biases in morbidity and mortality among H5N1 cases in Egypt are phenomena that warrant further investigation and analysis.

scholarly journals Hospitalization and Case Fatality in Individuals with Sickle Cell Disease and COVID-19 Infection

Blood ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 136 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 7-8
Author(s):  
Lana Mucalo ◽  
Amanda M. Brandow ◽  
Sadie F. Mason ◽  
Ashima Singh ◽  
Bradley W. Taylor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
General Population ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Black Population ◽  
Hospitalization Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
California Department

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited hemoglobinopathy that can affect nearly every organ system. Individuals living with SCD are at high risk of developing serious infections which can further trigger disease related complications and attribute additional morbidity and mortality. In light of the evolving pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, and the potential for future infectious disease epidemics, it is important to understand the impact that COVID-19 has on hospitalization rates and mortality in this medically vulnerable population. The objective of this study was to describe hospitalization and case fatality rates secondary to COVID-19 among individuals living with SCD in different age groups and compare these to the general population. The Medical College of Wisconsin established the international SECURE-SCD Registry to collect data on pediatric and adult COVID-19 infections in individuals living with SCD. Providers are instructed to report confirmed COVID-19 cases to the registry after sufficient time has passed to observe the disease course through resolution of acute illness and/or death. For each case, providers complete a short form that includes the following data: patient demographics, COVID-19 related hospitalization, COVID-19 severity/management strategies, if the patient died due to COVID, and other information about SCD complications. Data are de-identified and without protected health information to facilitate rapid and increased reporting. We calculated the hospitalization rate and case fatality rate for individuals with SCD by specific age group and contrasted it with the rates publicly available for the general Black population. We utilized data from California Department of Public Health for case fatality rate comparison in Blacks and data from COVID-NET for hospitalization rate comparison. We used indirect age adjustment to calculate standardized mortality ratios using COVID-19 data from California state as the reference population. As of July 17th 2020, 218 cases of COVID-19 in Blacks with SCD in the US were reported to the registry. There was a slight predominance of females (52.8%) and 32.1% of reported cases were patients 18 years and under. There were 15 deaths reported with overall mortality rate of 6.9%. Figure 1 shows the distribution of cases and deaths by age group and gender. Mortality rate in SCD patients was highest in the 50-64 years age group (23.1%) in contrast to mortality rate peaks seen in the general population in patients older than 80 years (Table 1). Young adult SCD patients aged 18-34 years had a case fatality rate of 3.3% and those aged 34-50 years had a rate of 14.9%. California Department of Public Health report case fatality rates for Blacks are less than 1% in both of these comparative age groups. Age-standardized mortality ratio shows that individuals with SCD are 7.7 times more likely to die due to COVID-19 infection compared to the general population. The overall hospitalization rate in individuals with SCD was 72.5% and 18.8% of reported hospitalized cases were children. Among hospitalized adults with SCD, stratification by age showed that 85% were aged 18-49, whereas only 25.7% of people 18-49 years in the general Black population were hospitalized (Table 2). Our findings show that individuals with SCD who have COVID-19 infection have higher rates of death due to COVID-19 than the general Black population. Also, a large proportion of COVID hospitalization for the SCD population occurs among the younger age group. Further analysis is planned to examine effects of underlying comorbidities and prior SCD-associated complications on the severity of COVID-19 in individuals with SCD. Disclosures Mucalo: NIH/NHLBI: Research Funding; NIH/NINDS: Research Funding. Brandow:Greater Milwaukee Foundation: Research Funding; NIH / NHLBI: Research Funding. Panepinto:HRSA: Research Funding; NINDS: Research Funding; NINDS: Research Funding; NHLBI: Research Funding.

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