scholarly journals Risks in the North Caucasus: Potential or Real Escalation of the Ethnopolitical Situation

2020 ◽  
pp. 115-128
Author(s):  
Viktor Avksent’ev ◽  
Galina Gritsenko ◽  
Svetlana Ivanova ◽  
Marina Shulga
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Ethnic Relations ◽  
Risk Society ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The North ◽  
Social Basis ◽  
General Improvement ◽  
Low Efficiency

Introduction. Positive dynamics in the ethnopolitical sphere of the North Caucasus does not mean that there are no further risks of the escalation of the ethnopolitical tension and stabilizing processes are irreversible. The goal and objectives of the article are the identification of the current ethnopolitical situation in the North Caucasus and assessment of the achievements or failures of the decade-long implementation of programs of reconstructiong the region. The authors identify risk factors of the ethnopolitical tension in the North Caucasus as a key approach to conflict forecasting, develop a hierarchy of risk factors, and assess the optimality of management decisions. Methods and discussion. In the context of the discussion the most relevant is understanding risks as an inevitable product of decision-making (Luhmann). The analysis of risk generating processes in the North Caucasus is most effective from the standpoint of the conflict studies (conflict resolution) approach (Burton). Empirical data was obtained by series of expert surveys, the Delphi method, content analysis of media sources (the Internet, printed press, radio, television) and analysis of official statistical data. The conclusion was made that during the past three years positive results have been achieved mainly due to administrative resources and activities of the institutions of force (“siloviki”), but those resources are close to exhaustion. All “classical” risk factors identified by the country’s leadership in 2009 remain and “new” risk factors are actualized. Among the “classical” risks, the first positions are occupied by the low level of industrial production, the critical dependence of the North Caucasus republics on federal budget subsidies, the lag in life standards in these republics from the average in Russia, the retention of a high unemployment rate. These risks are to a large extent due to such factor as the low efficiency of regional authorities. The “new” risk factors include those that were in a latent state, but now can turn into manifest conflicts. This is, above all, a land-use problem that has various modifications: ethnic, territorial, economic, historical. Further studies of the problems of the North Caucasus are related to the analysis of the effectiveness of the system of ethnopolitical security and centre-peripheral relations, to the new non-trivial approaches in the theory of Russian federalism, to the choice of a model of spatial development of the Russian Federation. Analysis and results. Despite the general improvement of the climate of ethnic relations, risk factors in the ethnopolitical situation in the North Caucasus can result in the return of the region to the negative conflict scenario. The modern North Caucasus can be characterized as a risk society, in which risks appear as a result of decision making more and more frequently. Some positive “shifts” in the economic and social basis of life in the region are not sufficient for irreversible changes of the situation for the better. The specificity of current problems in the North Caucasus is that their conflict potential can be implemented “unexpectedly” through various indirect links.

Transition to a New Model of Russian Governors’ Appointments as a Reflection of Regime Transformation

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-184
Author(s):  
Yevgeny Ivanov ◽  
Nikolay Petrov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Variation ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Regional Monitoring ◽  
New Model ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
The North ◽  
Special Case

Abstract An array of qualitative and quantitative information on 2016–2020 Russian governors’ replacements is used to analyze decision-making and the patterns of governors’ appointments as well as their evolution in conjunction with regime transformation and regional variation. Regression analysis is used to establish what factors influence replacements, based on regional monitoring data from the Committee of Civic Initiatives. Ethnic republics in the North Caucasus are taken as a special case.

scholarly journals Strategic planning toolkit in the social development of the regions of the north caucasus federal district

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 01014
Author(s):  
Natalia Borovikova ◽  
Elena Kulikova ◽  
Svetlana Prozorova ◽  
Irina Romanko ◽  
Grigory Shibichenko
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Social Practice ◽  
Social Problems ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Human Potential ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Efficiency

The article shows the need for strategic planning as an effective tool for solving social problems in the constituent entities of the North Caucasus Federal District. The regional strategies reveal the commonality of social goal-setting associated with the development of human potential and the growth of the quality of life, as well as particular specifics, reflecting the most acute life-supporting problems in the region. The work also demonstrates the low efficiency of state programs as a tool for implementing social priorities in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District. Considering the status of the North Caucasus Federal District as a priority territory, it was proposed to make subprograms and design solutions in the context of federal projects dedicated exclusively to solving social problems in the subjects of the North Caucasus Federal District in the section “New quality of life” in the state federal programs and in socially oriented priority national projects. To implement project activities in strategic planning and state programming in social practice in the regions of the North Caucasus Federal District, an organizational and supporting mechanism for the development and implementation of socially significant regional projects has been substantiated.

scholarly journals Ethnic Identity in the Social Dimension

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 165-181
Author(s):  
Svetlana V. Ryzhova
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Identity ◽  
Cultural Diversity ◽  
Public Space ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Ethnic Relations ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The North ◽  
The Right ◽  
High Level

The level of ethnic identity, the measure of its actualization, and the nature of ethnic attitudes that reflect the attitude of Russians to the ethno-cultural diversity of public space are considered on the basis of data from representative national research and researches in Tatarstan and Sacha (Yakutia). It is concluded that the high values of ethnic identity and the ethnic solidarity (formed on its basis) indicate the most important role of culture in the formation of all-Russian unity. The actualization of ethnic identity and interest in protecting ethnic and cultural diversity vary at the Federal districts: the highest values were obtained in the North Caucasus Federal district. Also, the risks of possible inter-ethnic and inter-religious tensions in the North Caucasus Federal district are perceived more acutely than in the Russian Federation on average. Orientations that recognize the right of all Russian peoples to state support for their cultures and religions are very widely represented, but at the same time alternative orientations that are aimed at priority support for the culture and religion of the Russian majority are also supported in public opinion. Research shows the trend of participation of ethnic identity of Russians in the formation of state-civil unity; there is a consensus in the society in the field of interethnic relations. Along with the actualization of ethnic identity, all-Russians have a high level of ethnic tolerance; however, violations of justice against the people or faith can be a destabilizing factor in inter-ethnic relations.

scholarly journals Resolving Identity-based Conflicts in the North Caucasus

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Maxim Popov
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Ethnic Relations ◽  
Ethnic Communities ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Cultural Autonomy ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
The North ◽  
Regional Conflict ◽  
Identity Based ◽  
Assimilation Policy

The article reviews the present state of analysis of regional conflict resolution in foreign and Russian literature. The goal of the research is to analyze the constructive methods for resolving ethno-political conflicts in the North Caucasus. Identity-based conflicts as a type of ethno-political conflicts have become a considerable obstacle to the Post-Soviet modernization in the current decade. The interest in the concept of identity-based conflict has been increasing worldwide during the first decade of the 21-st century. Competing identity became a prism for studying the problem of security in multi-ethnic communities. A rapid strengthening of hyper-ethnic identity of the citizens of Russia occurred in two post-Soviet decades. It was manifested in the demands of ethnocentrism, national-cultural autonomy, secession, as well as in the substantial growth of tension in ethnic relations, which resulted in protracted identity-based conflicts. Conflict resolution in the North Caucasus may be built on the principles of civic solidarity and socio-political integration but not on the assimilation policy and suppression of ethnicities.

ON THE DIALECTICS OF RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC RELATIONS: METHODOLOGICAL AND REGIONAL ASPECTS

2020 ◽  
pp. 67-80
Author(s):  
Magomedemin M. Hajiyev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Ethnic Relations ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Present Stage ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Religious Influence ◽  
The North

We are talking about the dialectic of two main vectors of identification of a person and society – ethnic and confessional. The author substantiates the inadmissibility of extremes in their assessment, associated with underestimation or overestimation of one of these factors. It is proved that the influence of religion on ethno-social processes in certain spheres is manifested with varying degrees of intensity. Religious influence is least noticeable in the financial and economic sphere, since it mainly operates universal and national mechanisms. Some ways of optimizing confessional ethnic and social interaction at the present stage are listed. The author studies the complex socio-political and spiritual situation in the recent past and examines some negative consequences of the activities of radical religious and political movement and organizations in the republics of the North Caucasus.

scholarly journals Ethnopolitical Processes in the North Caucasus: Dynamics and Stabilizing Factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 2211-2215
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Federal District ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Reverse Direction ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Expert Survey ◽  
The North ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
Stabilizing Factors

The paper is based on the results of an expert survey conducted in 2016-2017 in all territories located in of the North Caucasian Federal District. A detailed analysis of the results of the study, obtained by the method of expert assessments (Delphi group) is presented. The hierarchy of risks and threats was worked out and specified. The major risk factors include: the persistency of ethno-clan structure, the deterioration of the socioeconomic situation of a large part of the population and extremism, based on external factors. It is concluded that the ethnopolitical situation in the region is characterized by a combination of both positive and negative trends with a certain prevalence of stabilizing processes, but the regional situation can gain the reverse direction at any time.

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