scholarly journals COVID-19: urgent questions for estimating morbidity, prevalence, case fatality rate and mortality rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 2585 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. M. Drapkina ◽  
I. V. Samorodskaya ◽  
M. G. Sivtseva ◽  
E. P. Kakorina ◽  
N. I. Briko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Managerial Decisions

During epidemics, the usual statistical approaches will not allow determining the readiness of the public health system to take urgent measures to counteract the increase in morbidity, spread and mortality of the population. The quality of the medical, socio-economic and managerial decisions at all levels will depend on the accuracy of statistical data and the possibility of creating adequate prognostic models. However, there are still problems with the identification of COVID-19 cases and the diagnostic accuracy of the methods used. Complex analytical efforts require in order to determine the COVID-19 impact on the health status and case fatality rate/mortality rate.

scholarly journals Another vision of the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico during 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Sergio Isaac De La Cruz Hernández
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Sentinel Surveillance ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mexican Government ◽  
High Positivity Rate

Abstract The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths registered in Mexico during 2020 could be underestimated, due to the sentinel surveillance adopted in this country. Some consequences of following this type of epidemiological surveillance were the high case fatality rate and the high positivity rate for COVID-19 shown in Mexico in 2020. During this year, the Mexican Ministry of Health only considered cases from the public health system, which followed this sentinel surveillance, but did not consider those cases from the private health system. To better understand this pandemic, it is important to include all the results obtained by all the institutions capable of testing for COVID-19, thus the Mexican Government could make good decisions to protect the population from this disease.

scholarly journals Variations in case fatality and fatality risk factors of meningococcal disease in Western Norway, 1985–2002

2005 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. SMITH ◽  
A. T. BJØRNEVIK ◽  
I. M. B. AUGLAND ◽  
A. BERSTAD ◽  
T. WENTZEL-LARSEN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Skin Rash ◽  
Meningococcal Disease ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Admission Time ◽  
Meningococcal Septicaemia

SUMMARYIn a retrospective epidemiological study, 293 meningococcal disease patients hospitalized during 1985–2002, were examined for fatality and risk factors related to death. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 8·2%, but increased from 4% during 1985–1993 to 17% during 1994–2002. The latter 9-year period was characterized by more serogroup C infections and more patients with thrombocytopenia on admission to hospital. All patients categorized as meningitis on admission survived. Of the 24 patients who died, 21 had meningococcal skin rash on admission, 23 had an onset to admission time of ⩽24 h, and 16 had severe septicaemia with hypotension and/or ecchymoses without meningitis on admission. By multivariate analyses, a short onset to admission time, >50 petechiae, thrombocytopenia and severe septicaemia on admission were associated with fatality. More lives could be saved through earlier admission to hospital. This can be achieved through more information to the public about the early signs of meningococcal septicaemia, with the recommendation to look for skin rash in patients with acute fever during the first day and night.

scholarly journals Risk factors for incidence and case-fatality rates of healthcare-associated infections: a 20-year follow-up of a hospital-based cohort

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (1) ◽  
pp. 198-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.-F. WANG ◽  
S.-H. SHEN ◽  
A. M.-F. YEN ◽  
T.-L. WANG ◽  
T.-N. JANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Healthcare Associated Infections ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Infection Site ◽  
Healthcare Associated

SUMMARYInformation is lacking on the integrated evaluation of mortality rates in healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Our aim was to differentiate the risk factors responsible for the incidence from those for the case-fatality rates in association with HAIs. We therefore examined the time trends of both incidence and case-fatality rates over a 20-year period at a tertiary-care teaching medical centre in Taiwan and the mortality rate was expressed as the product of the incidence rate and the case-fatality rate. During the study period the overall mortality rate fell from 0·46 to 0·32 deaths/1000 patient-days and the incidence rate fell from 3·41 to 2·31/1000 patient-days, but the case-fatality rate increased marginally from 13·5% to 14·0%. The independent risk factors associated with incidence of HAIs were age, gender, infection site, admission type, and department of hospitalization. Significant prognostic factors for HAI case-fatality were age, infection site, intensive care, and clinical department. We conclude that the decreasing trend for the HAI mortality rate was accompanied by a significant decline in the incidence rate and this was offset by a slightly increasing trend in the case-fatality rate. This deconstruction approach could provide further insights into the underlying complex causes of mortality for HAIs.

scholarly journals Internações por bronquiolite aguda na rede pública da Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – RS de 2012 a 2014

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-202
Author(s):  
Morgana Thaís Carollo Fernandes ◽  
Luciana Medeiros Paungartner ◽  
Roger Dos Santos Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Acute Bronchiolitis ◽  
Porto Alegre ◽  
Public Network ◽  
The Public ◽  
La Red

Resumo A bronquiolite aguda é uma doença caracterizada por inflamação aguda dos bronquíolos e aumento da produção e da secreção de muco que pode estar associada a broncoespasmo. Acomete principalmente os lactentes, sendo a causa mais comum de hospitalizações pediátricas no primeiro ano de vida. O objetivo deste trabalho foi descrever as características das hospitalizações e os gastos na rede pública por bronquiolite aguda de residentes de 0 a 2 anos da Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre (RMPA), no sul do Brasil, no período 2012 a 2014. As hospitalizações com diagnóstico principal CID-10 J21.0 e J21.8 foram analisadas a partir de dados do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares, disponíveis publicamente. Foram calculados indicadores por sexo, faixas etárias, permanência, letalidade e gastos por internação. Ocorreram 7.091 internações (2.364/ano), na rede pública, por bronquiolite aguda de residentes da RMPA de 2012 a 2014 (153,6/10 mil habitantes/ano). O sexo masculino predominou (4.246 ou 59,9%) e as internações de pacientes de até um ano representaram 99,2%. Bronquiolite por vírus sincicial respiratório respondeu por 2.226 (31,4%) das internações, sendo que o tempo médio de permanência foi de 5,3 dias e a letalidade 0,2% tendo 12 pacientes falecidos. O gasto médio anual foi de R$ 946,2 mil e o valor médio por internação de R$ 400,29. Concluiu-se que as hospitalizações por bronquiolite aguda caracterizaram-se por elevada incidência, curta duração e baixa letalidade na rede pública da Região Metropolitana de Porto Alegre. Palavras-chave: Bronquiolite; hospitalização; Sistema Único de Saúde; criança; doenças respiratórias.     Abstract Hospitalizations for Acute Bronchiolitis in the public network of the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre– RS: a cross-sectional study from 2012 to 2014 The acute bronchiolitis is a disease characterized by acute inflammation of the bronchioles and increased mucus production and secretion that can be associated with bronchospasm. It mainly affects infants, being the most common cause of pediatric hospitalizations in the first year of life. The objective of this work was to describe the characteristics of hospitalizations and spent in the public network for acute bronchiolitis of residents aged 0 to 2 years in the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre (MRPA), in southern Brazil, from 2012 to 2014. Analysis of hospitalizations with the main diagnosis CID-10 J21.0 and J21.8was performed from the Hospital Information System, publicly available. Calculations of indicators by sex, age groups, length of stay, lethality and spent of hospitalization were also performed. A total of 7,091 hospitalizations occurred (2,364/year) in the public network for acute bronchiolitis of residents of the MRPA from 2012 to 2014 (153.6/10 thousand inhabitants/year). The male gender predominated (4,246 or 59.9%) and hospitalizations of patients up to one year accounted for 99.2%. Bronchiolitis due to respiratory syncytial virus accounted for 2,226 (31.4%) hospitalizations and the average length of stay was 5.3 days and the case fatality rate was 0.2% (12 patients deceased). The average annual expenditure was R $ 946.2 thousand and the average amount per hospitalization was R $ 400.29. It was concluded that hospitalizations for acute bronchiolitis were characterized by high incidence, short duration and low case fatality rate in the public network of the Metropolitan Region of Porto Alegre. Keywords: Bronchiolitis; hospitalization; Health Unic System; child; respiratory diseases.     Resumen Hospitalizaciones por Bronquiolitis Aguda em la Red Pública de la Región Metropolitana de Porto Alegre – RS: un estudio transversal de 2012 a 2014 La bronquiolitis aguda es una enfermedad caracterizada por la inflamación aguda de los bronquiolos y aumento de la producción y secreción de moco que puede asociarse a broncoespasmo. Afecta principalmente los lactantes, siendo la causa más común de hospitalizaciones pediátricas en el primer año de vida. El objetivo de este trabajo fue describir las características de las hospitalizaciones y costos en la red pública por bronquiolitis aguda de residentes de 0 a 2 años de edad de la Región Metropolitana de Porto Alegre, en el sur de Brasil, en el período 2012 a 2014. Las hospitalizaciones con diagnóstico principal CID-10 J21.0 y J21.8fueron analizadas a partir del Sistema de Información Hospitalaria, disponible publicamente. Fueron calculados indicadores por sexo, grupos de edad, permanencia, letalidad y costos por hospitalización. Hubo 7.091 hospitalizaciones (2.364/año) em la red pública por bronquiolitis aguda de residentes de la Región Metropolitana de Porto Alegre de 2012 a 2014 (153,6/10 mil habitantes/año). Predominó el género masculino (4.246 o 59,9%) y las hospitalizaciones de pacientes hasta un año representaron 99,2%. La bronquiolitis por virus respiratorio sincitial representó 2.226 (31,4%) de las hospitalizaciones y el promedio de permanencia fue de 5,3 días y la letalidad 0,2%, teniéndose 12 pacientes fallecidos. El costo pro medio anual fue de R$ 946,2 mil y el monto promedio por hospitalización fue de R$ 400,29. Se concluye que las hospitalizaciones por bronquiolitis aguda se caracterizaron por alta incidencia, corta duración y baja letalidad em la red pública de la Región Metropolitana de Porto Alegre. Palabras clave: Bronquiolitis; hospitalización; Sistema Único de Salud; niño; enfermidades respiratorias.

scholarly journals Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghai Liang ◽  
Liuhua Shi ◽  
Jingxuan Zhao ◽  
Pengfei Liu ◽  
Joel Schwartz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Urban Air Pollution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
County Level ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
P Values

AbstractBackgroundThe novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 240,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5 and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, sociodemographic, socioeconomic status, behavior risk factors, and meteorological factors.Results1,027,799 COVID-19 cases and 58,489 deaths were reported in 3,122 US counties from January 22, 2020 to April 29, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 5.8%. Spatial variations were observed for both COVID-19 death outcomes and long-term ambient air pollutant levels. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models (p-values<0.05). Per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 7.1% (95% CI 1.2% to 13.4%) and 11.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 19.5%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between long-term exposures to PM2.5 or O3 and COVID-19 death outcomes (p-values>0.05), although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (3.4 ug/m3) was marginally associated with 10.8% (95% CI: −1.1% to 24.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate.Discussions and ConclusionsLong-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of longterm PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Moreover, continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution levels may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Risk factors affecting COVID-19 case fatality rate: A quantitative analysis of top 50 affected countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Poh Goh ◽  
Wafiah Ilyani Mahari ◽  
Norhadyrah Izazie Ahad ◽  
Li Ling Chaw ◽  
Nurolaini Kifli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Diabetes Prevalence ◽  
Diabetic Patients ◽  
Fatality Rate

AbstractBackgroundLatest clinical data on treatment on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) indicated that older patients and those with underlying history of smoking, hypertension or diabetes mellitus might have poorer prognosis of recovery from COVID-19. We aimed to examine the relationship of various prevailing population-based risk factors in comparison with mortality rate and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19.MethodsDemography and epidemiology data which have been identified as verified or postulated risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 were used. The number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths until April 16, 2020 for all affected countries were extracted from Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 websites. Datasets for indicators that are fitting with the factors of COVID-19 mortality were extracted from the World Bank database. Out of about 185 affected countries, only top 50 countries were selected to be analyzed in this study. The following seven variables were included in the analysis, based on data availability and completeness: 1) proportion of people aged 65 above, 2) proportion of male in the population, 3) diabetes prevalence, 4) smoking prevalence, 5) current health expenditure, 6) number of hospital beds and 7) number of nurses and midwives. Quantitative analysis was carried out to determine the correlation between CFR and the aforementioned risk factors.ResultsUnited States shows about 0.20% of confirmed cases in its country and it has about 4.85% of CFR. Luxembourg shows the highest percentage of confirmed cases of 0.55% but a low 2.05% of CFR, showing that a high percentage of confirmed cases does not necessarily lead to high CFR. There is a significant correlation between CFR, people aged 65 and above (p = 0.35) and diabetes prevalence (p = 0.01). However, in our study, there is no significant correlation between CFR of COVID-19, male gender (p = 0.26) and smoking prevalence (p = 0.60).ConclusionOlder people above 65 years old and diabetic patients are significant risk factors for COVID-19. Nevertheless, gender differences and smoking prevalence failed to prove a significant relationship with COVID-19 mortality rate and CFR.

scholarly journals Global Pandemic Trends of COVID-19 in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai-Zhen Chen ◽  
Bo Cai ◽  
Jian-Guo Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been global threaten to public health. This paper provides perspective to the decision-making for public health control of the pandemic or the spread of epidemic.Methods: According to the WHO global reported database, we developed and used the number of cumulative cases, and the number of cumulative deaths to calculate and analyze rates of incidence, mortality, and fatality by country, with respect to the 30 highest outbreak (Top 30) countries.Results： As of December 31, 2020, of the global population of 7.585 billion, the cumulative number of reported cases was 81,475,053, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,798,050. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 1074.13 per 100,000 population, the mortality rate was 23.70 per 100,000, and the case fatality rate was 2.21%. Among the Top 30 countries, the five countries with the highest number of reported cumulative cases were, in rank, the United States (19,346,790 cases), India (10,266,674), Brazil (7,563,551), Russia (3,159,297) and France (2,556,708), and the five countries with the highest number of cumulative deaths were the United States (335,789 cases), Brazil (192,681), India (148,738), Mexico (123,845) and Italy (73,604). Globally, the countries with the highest incidence rate were, in rank, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, San Marino, and Czechia; the countries with the highest mortality rate were, in rank, San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Italy, and North Macedonia. The highest fatality rate was found in Yemen, Mexico, Montserrat, Isle of Man, and Ecuador, respectively. In China, 96,673 cases of COVID-19 and 4788 deaths were reported in 2020, ranking the 78th and the 43rd, respectively, in the world. The incidence rate and mortality rate were 6.90/105 and 0.34/105, respectively, ranking 207th and 188th in the world. The case fatality rate was 4.95%, ranking 11th in the world.Conclusions： The COVID-19 prevalence is still on the rise, and the turning points of incidence and mortality are not yet forecasted. Personal protection, anti-epidemic measures and efforts from public health personnel, medical professionals, biotechnology R&D personnel, effectiveness of the vaccination programs and the governments, are the important factors to determine the future prevalence of this coronavirus disease.

scholarly journals Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Around The World: An Adjusted Estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽  
Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽  
Marzieh Mahmudimanesh ◽  
Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Total Expenditure ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract Background: The present study is designed to predict the global adjusted values for mortality rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19 around the world. Methods: This research was conducted at the ecological level using data from 100 countries which were chosen randomly. The adjusted values were predicted using beta regression considering predictive factors such as total expenditure on health per capita, expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years, hospital beds (per 1000 population), physicians (per 1000 population), nurses (per 1000 population), prevalence of smoking, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and number of confirmed tests in each country. In the end, applying Monte Carlo simulation, the adjusted values of mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated.Results: The results of this study showed that two factors including percentage of population ages 65 and above (P=0.03) and Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (P = 0.04) had a statistically significant relationship with the case fatality rate. Moreover, there was a statistically significant relationship between the mortality rate and life expectancy (P = 0.02), total expenditure on health per capita (P < 0.001), nurses (Per 1000 Population) (P=0.04), and the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (P=0.04). The mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated to be 0.000001 and 0.026, respectively.Conclusion: It seems that what can cause global concern is not the case fatality rate of the disease, but its mortality rate, which is directly related to the health status of a community. The worse the health status of a community, the greater the number of infected people likely to be there, that ultimately increases the mortality rate of the disease in the community.

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