scholarly journals IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN THE BRAZILIAN SEMIARID REGION ON WATERMELON CULTIVARS

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 794-802
Author(s):  
TALYANA KADJA DE MELO ◽  
JOSÉ ESPÍNOLA SOBRINHO ◽  
JOSÉ FRANSCIMAR DE MEDEIROS ◽  
VLADIMIR BATISTA FIGUEIREDO ◽  
JOSÉ SILEREUDO DA SILVA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Brazilian Semiarid ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

ABSTRACT The phenology and water demand of crops can be altered by climate change. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate change (temperature and relative humidity) on the development and evapotranspiration (ETc) of watermelon cultivare (Citrullus lanatus Schrad) in irrigated plantations in the Brazilian semiarid region. The experiments were conducted at the Rafael Fernandes Experimental Farm, in the municipality of Mossoró, RN, Brazil. The first experiment was carried out from February to April 2006, evaluating the cultivar Mickylee. In the second experiment, carried out from September to November 2009, the cultivar Quetzali was used. Two climate change scenarios were evaluated based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report: an optimistic one named B2 and a pessimistic one named A2. It was found that climate change may cause reductions in crop vegetative cycle of 14.1 and 26.9% for the cultivar Mickylee and 7.9 and 11.1% for the cultivar Quetzali, for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively, compared to the current climate scenario. Future climate changes will increase the watermelon crop coefficient (Kc), for the conditions under which the present study was carried out, increasing the daily ETc the total ETc, mainly for the cultivar Mickylee. Future climate changes in air temperature and relative humidity will reach limits above those tolerated by the crop, which will lead to changes in the cultural practices and irrigation management.

NECESSIDADE HÍDRICA DA CULTURA DO MILHO INFLUENCIADA PELAS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NO SEMIÁRIDO NORDESTINO

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 251 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDMILSON GOMES CAVALCANTE JUNIOR ◽  
JOSÉ FRANCISMAR DE MEDEIROS ◽  
ISAAC ALVES DA SILVA FREITAS ◽  
ANNA KÉZIA SOARES DE OLIVEIRA ◽  
JOSÉ ESPÍNOLA SOBRINHO ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Zea Mays ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Ipcc Report

 RESUMO - O presente trabalho teve como objetivo verificar os impactos das mudanças climáticas no desenvolvimento e evapotranspiração do milho, no semiárido brasileiro. O trabalho foi desenvolvido nos municípios de Apodi, Ipanguaçu e Mossoró, todos eles localizados no estado do Rio Grande do Norte. A determinação da evapotranspiração da cultura (ETc), em suas diferentes fases, foi realizada através de lisímetros de pesagem. Para verificar a influência das mudanças climáticas no consumo hídrico da cultura foram simuladas alterações na temperatura e na umidade relativa do ar, através do modelo climático PRECIS. Foram avaliados dois cenários de emissões baseados no relatório do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), um pessimista (A2) e um otimista (B2). Os dados de temperatura e umidade relativa utilizados foram as saídas do modelo PRECIS. Segundo as projeções do modelo as temperaturas na região ficarão muito acima do limite ótimo para o desenvolvimento da cultura. A duração do ciclo da cultura apresentou uma redução média de 10 e 15 dias para os cenários B2 e A2, respectivamente. A redução no ciclo também provocou uma diminuição de 3,0% na evapotranspiração total, considerando o cenário mais otimista, e de 4,4% no cenário mais pessimista.Palavras-chave: Zea mays, temperatura, umidade relativa, evapotranspiração. DEVELOPMENT AND WATER REQUIREMENT OF MAIZE CROP AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE SEMIARID REGION OF THE BRAZILIAN NORTHEAST  ABSTRACT - This study aimed to determine the impacts of climate changes on growth and evapotranspiration of maize in the Brazilian semiarid region. The study was conducted in the municipalities of Apodí, Ipanguaçu and Mossoró, all of them located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. The determination of evapotranspiration (ETc) throughout the different crop phases was accomplished by weighing lysimeters.In order to check the effect of climate changes on crop water consumption, simulated changes were done in the temperature and relative humidity of the air, through the PRECIS climate model. Two scenarios of emissions were evaluated based on the IPCC report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): a pessimistic caled A2 and an optimistic B2. The data of temperature and relative humidity were obtained by the PRECIS model. According to the model projections, the temperatures in the region will be far above the optimal limit for crop development. The crop cycle showed an average reduction of 10 and 15 days for B2 and A2 scenarios, respectively. The reduction in the cycle also caused a decrease in the total evapotranspiration of 3.0%, considering the most optimistic scenario, and 4.4% in the worst scenario.keywords: Zea mays, temperature, relative humidity, evapotranspiration.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals O Papel das Oleaginosas em um Cenário de Mudanças Climáticas no Semiárido Brasileiro (The Role of Oilseeds in a Climate Change Scenario in the Brazilian Semiarid)

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1426
Author(s):  
João Nildo S. Vianna ◽  
Marcelo Castro Pereira ◽  
Laura M.G. Duarte ◽  
Magda E. Wehrmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Brazilian Semiarid ◽  
Family Agriculture

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar, ainda que de forma preliminar, os efeitos limitantes das mudanças climáticas na produção de oleaginosas agro-energética no semiárido brasileiro, nomeadamente a redução dos índices pluviométricos e aumento de temperatura. Para alcançar este objetivo usa-se como referência a evolução de variáveis climáticas, por meio da série histórica entre 1973 e 2010, e projeções futuras tendo por base os cenários de mudanças climáticas, desenvolvidos para o nordeste brasileiro até 2100. O recorte geográfico é a região de Irecê, no semiárido da Bahia, tradicional reduto da agricultura familiar e grande produtor de alimentos consorciado com oleaginosas. O estudo mostra que as culturas tradicionais de oleaginosas estão próximas aos limites de exigências hídricas, pelo que, para enfrentar as mudanças nos padrões climáticos, vai ser necessário um melhoramento genético das culturas tradicionais para que essa espécies consigam tolerar as restrições hídricas. Preconizando-se igualmente a introdução de espécies mais rústicas e com maior resistência ao estresse hídrico. Palavras-Chave: Agricultura Familiar, Vulnerabilidade e Adaptação às Mudanças Climáticas, Biodiesel, Semiárido.  The Role of Oilseeds in a Climate Change Scenario in the Brazilian Semiarid  ABSTRACT The present study aims to evaluate the effects of climate changes on the production of oilseed and energy crops in the Brazilian semiarid region. The study is based on the analysis of past climate, by evaluating a historic series of rain and temperature from 1973 to 2010. This historic series is, then, compared to a future climate prediction, based on climatic change scenarios developed for the Brazilian northeast until 2100. The geographic location of the study is the Irecê area of the State of Bahia, in the semi-arid northeast. That is a traditional family agriculture area with a strong food crop and oilseeds production. The study shows that traditional oilseed crops are being cultivated near the limits of their water needs. In order to face the climate changes, such crops would need to be genetically improved to increase their tolerance to water stress. An option would be to introduce species with higher level of tolerance to water stress. Keywords: family agriculture, vulnerability and adaptation to climate changes, biodiesel, semiarid.

scholarly journals Estimation of Watershed Hydrochemical Responses to Future Climate Changes Based on CMIP6 Scenarios in the Tianhe River (China)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10102
Author(s):  
Jian Sha ◽  
Xue Li ◽  
Jingjing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Hydrochemical Processes

The impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes were assessed based on the newest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in the Tianhe River in the middle area of China. The monthly spatial downscaled outputs of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used, and a new Python procedure was developed to batch pick up site-scale climate change information. A combined modeling approach was proposed to estimate the responses of the streamflow and Total Dissolved Nitrogen (TDN) fluxes to four climate change scenarios during four future periods. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to generate synthetic daily weather series, which were further used in the Regional Nutrient Management (ReNuMa) model for scenario analyses of watershed hydrochemical process responses. The results showed that there would be 2–3% decreases in annual streamflow by the end of this century for most scenarios except SSP 1-26. More streamflow is expected in the summer months, responding to most climate change scenarios. The annual TDN fluxes would continue to increase in the future under the uncontrolled climate scenarios, with more non-point source contributions during the high-flow periods in the summer. The intensities of the TDN flux increasing under the emission-controlled climate scenarios would be relatively moderate, with a turning point around the 2070s, indicating that positive climate policies could be effective for mitigating the impacts of future climate changes on watershed hydrochemical processes.

Climate changes and Dynamics of the Agricultural Productions in the Mediterranean Region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilia Lamonaca ◽  
Fabio Gaetano Santeramo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Agricultural Produce ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Climate change has the potential to impact the agricultural sector. The impacts of climate change are likely to differ across producing regions of agricultural produce. Future climate scenarios may push some regions into climatic regimes favourable to agricultural production, with potential changes in areas planted with typical Mediterranean products. We examine which is the linkage between climate change and productivity levels in the selected agricultural sectors. Within the framework of agricultural supply response, we assume that acreage and yield are a function of climate change. We find that yield is affected by changes in temperatures and precipitations, with heterogeneous impacts. Acreage is also affected. The impacts vary across Mediterranean Regions, due to different specialisation and to the heterogeneity in climate between them.</p>

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

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