scholarly journals The value of the exchange rate and the Dutch disease

2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The impact of remittances on Sudan’s economic growth: does the exchange rate matter?

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 925-939
Author(s):  
Atif Awad ◽  
Abdalla Sirag
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Official Rate ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of the Dutch disease hypothesis through examining the remittance-growth nexus using annual data for Sudan covering the period 1977-2015. The paper seeks to answer the following critical questions: what is the impact of remittance on Sudanese economy? How exchange rate influences the impact of remittance on growth? To what extent the impact of remittance on growth differs between the short and long run.Design/methodology/approachThe paper employs the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) technique because of its several advantages.FindingsThe ARDL results show evidence against the existence of such a hypothesis. More specifically, the results show that over time, due to the structured nature of the economy, remittances may affect economic growth negatively through several mechanisms including the depreciation rather than the appreciation of the exchange rate.Originality/valueAfter 2011 and the secession of South Sudan, Sudan lost more than 80 per cent of foreign exchange revenues which reflected in the sharp gap between the official rate and the parallel exchange rate equal to 150 per cent. To lessening this gap, the attention was given to expatriates to encourage them to transfer their remittances through official channels. Since remittance and exchange rate mechanism may affect growth positively or negatively, no study addressed this possibility. This is the first empirical study in this matter that considers both the temporary and the permanent impacts.

Successes and Failures of Industrial Policy in Transition Economies of Europe and Asia

2020 ◽  
pp. 778-810
Author(s):  
Vladimir Popov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Soviet Union ◽  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Very High Energy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This chapter discusses the achievements and failures of various models of industrial policy in post-communist countries. If industrial policy is needed, how are industries that have to be supported to be selected? What are the appropriate tools/instruments to support particular industries? Eastern European countries in general did not have any explicit industrial policy, either via tax concessions and/or subsidies, or via under/overpricing the exchange rate. Many countries of the former Soviet Union carried out large import-substitution programmes through the regulation of domestic fuel and energy prices (directly and via export tax) that subsidized all energy consumers. They also provided subsidies to agricultural enterprises. China and Vietnam (and to some extent Uzbekistan) carried out export-oriented industrial policy mostly by underpricing the exchange rate. It is argued that export-oriented industrial policy via undervaluation of the exchange rate is the best possible option to promote export-oriented catch-up development based on the export of manufactured goods. It is especially needed for resource-rich countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) that are prone to ‘Dutch disease’. Assistance to domestic producers by keeping domestic prices for fuel and energy low also helps to stimulate growth, but at the cost of very high energy intensity.

scholarly journals Friedrich List and Dutch Disease: two sides of the same coin?

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 493-509
Author(s):  
Kunibert Raffer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Dutch Disease ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Valuable Contribution ◽  
Friedrich List ◽  
Development Problem ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Two Sides

ABSTRACT Comparing List’s development problem to Dutch Disease, as generalized by Bresser-Pereira, one sees quite a few similarities. While the exchange rate was understandably of no concern to List, it is meanwhile one if not the most important determinant of trade flows. This generalized Dutch Disease approach is a valuable contribution to the debate on appropriate economic policies in Southern countries. It shows a way to counter mal-developments. It certainly deserves further discussion because quite a few countries suffer from it. Bresser’s arguments fit very well into other unorthodox approaches that also tried to counter the inefficiency of really existing markets with workable proposals, which orthodoxy has quite successfully supressed. This paper also makes a proposal that might help for agro-exporting countries.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

Pengaruh Faktor Fundamental, Risiko Sistematis Dan Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Return Saham Syariah Yang Tergabung Di Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Pada Periode 2010 – 2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-70
Author(s):  
Hasanah Setyowati ◽  
Riyanti Ningsih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Systematic Risk ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Return On Equity ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aimed to obtain empirical evidence on the influence of fundamental factors, systematic risk and macroeconomics on the returns Islamic stock of companies incorporated in the Jakarta Islamic Index in 2010-2014. The variables used were the fundamental factors that are proxied by Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER); Systematic risk is proxied by Beta Shares; macroeconomic factors is proxied by the inflation rate and the exchange rate. The samples of this study are the enterprises incorporated in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) at the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The sampling method was using purposive sampling. There were 12 samples of Islamic stocks that meet the criteria to be used as samples. The analysis model used is multiple linear regression techniques and the type of data used is secondary data. The study found that all variables, which are Earning Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Beta stock, inflation and the exchange rate do not significantly affect the return of sharia stock either simultaneously or partially.

On the Exchange Rate Policy

2010 ◽  
pp. 21-28
Author(s):  
K. Yudaeva
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The level of trust in the local currency in Russia is very low largely because of relatively high inflation. As a result, Bank of Russia during crisis times can not afford monetary policy loosening and has to fight devaluation expectations. To change the situation in the post-crisis period Russia needs to live through a continuous period of low inflation. Modified inflation targeting can help achieve such a result. However, it should be amended with institutional changes, particularly development of hedging instruments.

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

The long-run stability of a small, open economy under crawling peg regime

2002 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-78
Author(s):  
S. Çiftçioğlu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Output Stability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The paper analyses the long-run (steady-state) output and price stability of a small, open economy which adopts a “crawling-peg” type of exchange-rate regime in the presence of various kinds of random shocks. Analytical and simulation results suggest that with the exception of money demand shocks, an exchange rate policy which involves a relatively higher rate of indexation of the exchange rate to price level is likely to lead to the worsening of price stability for all types of shocks. On the other hand, the impact of adopting such a policy on output stability depends on the type of the shock; for policy shocks to the exchange rate and shocks to output demand, output stability is worsened whereas for the shocks to risk premium of domestic assets, supply price of domestic output and the wage rate, better output stability is achieved in the long run.

Non-Performing Loans, Banking System and Macroeconomy

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-86
Author(s):  
Akinola Morakinyo ◽  
Colette Muller ◽  
Mabutho Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Correlation Tests ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract The study builds on previous studies of the consequences of non-performing loans on an economy. Using a seven-by-seven matrix in the impulse response function (IRF) of the structural autoregressive model, we find a long-run impact of an impulse to non-performing loans on the banking system and the macroeconomy in Nigeria. Conversely, non-performing loans also respond to the innovation of all macro-banking variables aside from the exchange rate and the growth rate to GDP. Also, the level of non-performing loans grows in influence in relation to the changes to the exchange rate using the variance decomposition tool of Structural VAR. Hence, a prominent role is assigned to the level of NPLs in linking the friction in the credit market to the susceptibility of both the banking system and the macroeconomy. This study passes the serial correlation tests and the three tests of normality.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document