scholarly journals Spatial modeling of dengue and socio-environmental indicators in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 591-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Rodrigues de Araujo Teixeira ◽  
Oswaldo Gonçalves Cruz

This study analyzed the spatial distribution of dengue in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 2006, and associations between the incidence per 100,000 inhabitants and socio-environmental variables. The study analyzed reported dengue cases among the city's inhabitants, rainfall, Breteau index (for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), Gini index, and social development index. We conducted mapping and used the global Moran index to measure the indicators' spatial autocorrelation, which was positive for all variables. The generalized linear model showed a direct association between dengue incidence and rainfall, one-month rainfall time lag, Gini index, and Breteau index for A. albopictus. The conditional autoregressive model (CAR) showed a direct association with rainfall for four months of the year, rain time lag in July, and Gini index in February. The results demonstrate the importance of socio-environmental variables in the dynamics of dengue transmission and the relevance for the development of dengue control strategies.

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 325
Author(s):  
Leon Biscornet ◽  
Christophe Révillion ◽  
Sylvaine Jégo ◽  
Erwan Lagadec ◽  
Yann Gomard ◽  
...  

Leptospirosis, an environmental infectious disease of bacterial origin, is the infectious disease with the highest associated mortality in Seychelles. In small island territories, the occurrence of the disease is spatially heterogeneous and a better understanding of the environmental factors that contribute to the presence of the bacteria would help implement targeted control. The present study aimed at identifying the main environmental parameters correlated with animal reservoirs distribution and Leptospira infection in order to delineate habitats with highest prevalence. We used a previously published dataset produced from a large collection of rodents trapped during the dry and wet seasons in most habitats of Mahé, the main island of Seychelles. A land use/land cover analysis was realized in order to describe the various environments using SPOT-5 images by remote sensing (object-based image analysis). At each sampling site, landscape indices were calculated and combined with other geographical parameters together with rainfall records to be used in a multivariate statistical analysis. Several environmental factors were found to be associated with the carriage of leptospires in Rattus rattus and Rattus norvegicus, namely low elevations, fragmented landscapes, the proximity of urbanized areas, an increased distance from forests and, above all, increased precipitation in the three months preceding trapping. The analysis indicated that Leptospira renal carriage could be predicted using the species identification and a description of landscape fragmentation and rainfall, with infection prevalence being positively correlated with these two environmental variables. This model may help decision makers in implementing policies affecting urban landscapes and/or in balancing conservation efforts when designing pest control strategies that should also aim at reducing human contact with Leptospira-laden rats while limiting their impact on the autochthonous fauna.


2015 ◽  
Vol 87 (3) ◽  
pp. 1717-1726 ◽  
Author(s):  
JULIANA WOJCIECHOWSKI ◽  
ANDRÉ A. PADIAL

One of the main goals of monitoring cyanobacteria blooms in aquatic environments is to reveal the relationship between cyanobacterial abundance and environmental variables. Studies typically correlate data that were simultaneously sampled. However, samplings occur sparsely over time and may not reveal the short-term responses of cyanobacterial abundance to environmental changes. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that stronger cyanobacteria x environment relationships in monitoring are found when the temporal variability of sampling points is incorporated in the statistical analyses. To this end, we investigated relationships between cyanobacteria and seven environmental variables that were sampled twice yearly for three years across 11 reservoirs, and data from an intensive monitoring in one of these reservoirs. Poor correlations were obtained when correlating data simultaneously sampled. In fact, the 'highly recurrent' role of phosphorus in cyanobacteria blooms is not properly observed in all sampling periods. On the other hand, the strongest correlation values for the total phosphorus x cyanobacteria relationship were observed when we used the variation of sampling points. We have also shown that environment variables better explain cyanobacteria when a time lag is considered. We conclude that, in cyanobacteria monitoring, the best approach to reveal determinants of cyanobacteria blooms is to consider environmental variability.


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yazmin Alcala-Canto ◽  
Juan Antonio Figueroa-Castillo ◽  
Froylán Ibarra-Velarde ◽  
Yolanda Vera-Montenegro ◽  
María Eugenia Cervantes-Valencia ◽  
...  

The tick genus Ripicephalus (Boophilus), particularly R. microplus, is one of the most important ectoparasites that affects livestock health and considered an epidemiological risk because it causes significant economic losses due, mainly, to restrictions in the export of infested animals to several countries. Its spatial distribution has been tied to environmental factors, mainly warm temperatures and high relative humidity. In this work, we integrated a dataset consisting of 5843 records of Rhipicephalus spp., in Mexico covering close to 50 years to know which environmental variables mostly influence this ticks’ distribution. Occurrences were georeferenced using the software DIVA-GIS and the potential current distribution was modelled using the maximum entropy method (Maxent). The algorithm generated a map of high predictive capability (Area under the curve = 0.942), providing the various contribution and permutation importance of the tested variables. Precipitation seasonality, particularly in March, and isothermality were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the probability of spatial distribution of Rhipicephalus spp. in Mexico (15.7%, 36.0% and 11.1%, respectively). Our findings demonstrate that Rhipicephalus has colonized Mexico widely, including areas characterized by different types of climate. We conclude that the Maxent distribution model using Rhipicephalus records and a set of environmental variables can predict the extent of the tick range in this country, information that should support the development of integrated control strategies.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Scanff ◽  
Florian Naudet ◽  
Ioana Cristea ◽  
David Moher ◽  
Dorothy V M Bishop ◽  
...  

AbstractContextConvergent analyses in different disciplines support the use of the Percentage of Papers by the Most Prolific author (PPMP) as a red flag to identify journals that can be suspected of questionable editorial practices. We examined whether this index, complemented by the Gini index, could be useful for identifying cases of potential editorial bias, using a large sample of biomedical journals.MethodsWe extracted metadata for all biomedical journals referenced in the National Library of Medicine, with any attributed Broad Subject Terms, and at least 50 authored (i.e. by at least one author) articles between 2015 and 2019, identifying the most prolific author (i.e. the person who signed the most papers in each particular journal). We calculated the PPMP and the 2015-2019 Gini index for the distribution of articles across authors. When the relevant information was reported, we also computed the median publication lag (time between submission and acceptance) for articles authored by any of the most prolific authors and that for articles not authored by prolific authors. For outlier journals, defined as a PPMP or Gini index above the 95th percentile of their respective distributions, a random sample of 100 journals was selected and described in relation to status on the editorial board for the most prolific author.Results5 468 journals that published 4 986 335 papers between 2015 and 2019 were analysed. The PPMP 95th percentile was 10.6% (median 2.9%). The Gini index 95th percentile was 0.355 (median 0.183). Correlation between the two indices was 0.35 (95CI 0.33 to 0.37). Information on publication lag was available for 2 743 journals. We found that 277 journals (10.2%) had a median time lag to publication for articles by the most prolific author(s) that was shorter than 3 weeks, versus 51 (1.9%) journals with articles not authored by prolific author(s). Among the random sample of outlier journals, 98 provided information about their editorial board. Among these 98, the most prolific author was part of the editorial board in 60 cases (61%), among whom 25 (26% of the 98) were editors-in-chief.DiscussionIn most journals publications are distributed across a large number of authors. Our results reveal a subset of journals where a few authors, often members of the editorial board, were responsible for a disproportionate number of publications. The papers by these authors were more likely to be accepted for publication within 3 weeks of their submission. To enhance trust in their practices, journals need to be transparent about their editorial and peer review practices.


Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 625
Author(s):  
Bikram Pandey ◽  
Nirdesh Nepal ◽  
Salina Tripathi ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
...  

Understanding the pattern of species distribution and the underlying mechanism is essential for conservation planning. Several climatic variables determine the species diversity, and the dependency of species on climate motivates ecologists and bio-geographers to explain the richness patterns along with elevation and environmental correlates. We used interpolated elevational distribution data to examine the relative importance of climatic variables in determining the species richness pattern of 26 species of gymnosperms in the longest elevation gradients in the world. Thirteen environmental variables were divided into three predictors set representing each hypothesis model (energy-water, physical-tolerance, and climatic-seasonality); to explain the species richness pattern of gymnosperms along the elevational gradient. We performed generalized linear models and variation partitioning to evaluate the relevant role of environmental variables on species richness patterns. Our findings showed that the gymnosperms’ richness formed a hump-shaped distribution pattern. The individual effect of energy-water predictor set was identified as the primary determinant of species richness. While, the joint effects of energy-water and physical-tolerance predictors have explained highest variations in gymnosperm distribution. The multiple environmental indicators are essential drivers of species distribution and have direct implications in understanding the effect of climate change on the species richness pattern.


2020 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 01059
Author(s):  
Farida Athaillah ◽  
Nur A. Hashim ◽  
Muhammad Hambal ◽  
Henni Vanda ◽  
Yudha Fahrimal ◽  
...  

Aedes-borne arboviruses have emerged as an important public health problem throughout the world where Aedes spp. are the vectors responsible for this disease. This study was conducted to identify the material types of breeding containers of Aedes spp. larvae as one of the baseline data for Kuta Alam SubDistrict and to suggest suitable Aedes prevention and control strategies. Larvae were identified morphologically and larval indices were also calculated. A total of 2436 containers out of 14 types of containers observed during study periods. The positive breeding containers were surveyed and classified into indoors and outdoors environments. The material of positive breeding container types found was classified into six categories; cement, ceramic, plastic, metal, rubber and glass. As many as 450 of the 2436 potential containers included in the survey, half of the positive containers are cement and plastic materials which represent 80% of the total both in rural and urban areas, indoors and outdoors environment. It was followed by ceramic (15%), metal (3%) and rubber (1%). Aedes spp. larvae were most abundant in cement and plastic material. Therefore, community mobilization towards eliminating human-made containers, either indoor or outdoor, is vital for the dengue control program.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhoubin Zhang ◽  
Qinlong Jing ◽  
Zongqiu Chen ◽  
Tiegang Li ◽  
Liyun Jiang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne disease in the world, with China affected seriously in recent years. 65.8% of dengue cases identified in mainland China since 2005 were reported from the city of Guangzhou. Methods In this study, we described the incidence rate and distribution of dengue cases using data collected form National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System data in Guangzhou for 2001 to 2016. All dengue cases were investigated using standardized questionnaire. Results A total of 42,469 dengue cases were reported, with an average annual incidence rate of 20.99 per 100,000 resident population. Over this time period, the incidence rate of indigenous cases increased. Dengue affected areas also expanded sharply geographically from 58.1% of communities affected during 2001–2005 to 96.4% of communities affected in 2011–2016. Overall 95.30% of the overseas imported cases were reported during March and December, while 99.79% of indigenous cases were reported during July and November. All four dengue virus serotypes were identified both in imported cases and indigenous cases. The Aedes albopictus mosquito was the only vector for dengue transmission in the area. Conclusions Guangzhou has become the dengue epicenter in mainland China. Control strategies for dengue should be adjusted to the epidemiological characteristics above and intensive study need to be conducted to explore the factors that driving the rapid increase of dengue.


2013 ◽  
Vol 765-767 ◽  
pp. 789-792
Author(s):  
Xin Song ◽  
Ming Yu Li ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Chao Yang

Straight pull single crystal furnaces temperature control system has problem of the long time lag and nonlinearity, so the precise mathematic mode that is hard to build. Advanced control strategies show strong advantages for resolving these problems. This paper use artificial neural network modeling approach to establish single crystal furnace temperatures neural network control BP structure model, use adaptive method to control the temperature of the single crystal furnace.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mabel Carabali ◽  
Alexandra M. Schmidt ◽  
Berta N. Restrepo ◽  
Jay S. Kaufman

The spatial distribution of surveillance-reported dengue cases and severity are usually analyzed separately, assuming independence between the spatial distribution of non-severe and severe cases. Given the availability of data for the individual geo-location of surveillance-notified dengue cases, we conducted a cross-sectional study to model non-severe and severe dengue simultaneously, identifying the spatial patterns of dengue distribution, using individual and area level covariates within a hierarchical Bayesian model. Results showed that age and socioeconomic status were associated with dengue presence, and there was evidence of clustering for overall cases but not for severity. Our findings inform decision making to address the preparedness or implementation of dengue control strategies at the local level.


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 17939-17964
Author(s):  
M. Barthel ◽  
E. Cieraad ◽  
A. Zakharova ◽  
J. E. Hunt

Abstract. Since substrates for respiration are supplied mainly by recent photo-assimilates, there is a strong but time-lagged link between short-term above- and belowground carbon (C) cycling. However, regulation of this coupling by environmental variables is poorly understood. Whereas recent studies focussed on the effect of drought and shading on the link between above and belowground short-term C cycling, the effect of temperature remains unclear. We used a 13CO2 pulse-chase labelling experiment to investigate the effect of a sudden temperature change from 25 °C to 10 °C on the short-term coupling between assimilatory C uptake and respiratory loss. The study was done in the laboratory using two month old perennial rye-grass plants (


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