SIR Model for Estimations of the Coronavirus Epidemic Dynamics in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Deldar ◽  
Samaneh Tahmasebi Ghorabi ◽  
Kourosh Sayehmiri
Keyword(s):  
Software Package ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Better Than

Background: The Coronavirus 2019-nCOV (COVID-19) epidemic by SARS-CoV-2 is spreading worldwide, and by March 1, 2020, 67 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Many studies are being conducted at home and abroad to predict the outbreak of the disease so that they can make the necessary medical and health decisions in a timely manner.  Methods: we used the SIR model to identify parameters to calculate epidemic features and some estimates of the new coronavirus. Data on the transmission of the novel coronavirus were extracted from the GitHub source in the covid19.analytics software package. Results: According to our model estimates, the rate of infection β = 1 and the rate of removal γ = 0.667 and index R0 = 1.497 were obtained. Because the value of R0 is more than one, it is still an epidemic disease. Given that tfinal~132 days was estimated, we can expect the transmission of this epidemic to stop in Iran after July 3, 2020, provided that existing quarantine measures and patient isolation rates continue as usual. In comparison with the global SIR model, we reached the peak of the infection earlierthan the global model, but in improved and susceptible cases, we performed better than the global model. The graph of recovered and susceptible cases in Iran earlier than the global model cut off themselves. Conclusion: Forecasts are set to be a useful guide for deciding whether to transfer COVID-19. According to the predictions and estimates made, more attention should be paid to control measures

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The Upsurge and Impact of COVID 19 in India: Health Issues and Remedial Measures

2021 ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
Kanchi Isswani
Keyword(s):  
Sudden Increase ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Frontline Workers ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Major Decision ◽  
Better Than

The novel Coronavirus was something that nobody was prepared for. It was that part of the syllabus which was always neglected. The contagious disease which started in the Wuhan region of China had started to settle in various parts of the World. The outbreak of this disease has reached such a huge number that all the countries witnessed lockdown in some form or the other. Some people have witnessed destruction of mankind while some have even leisured this time to their fullest but as it has been always said “Prevention is better than cure”. Prevention of covid 19 in all the nations was one of the major steps which was taken in the year 2020. In India it all started in the year of 2019 December when the first ever case of covid 19 was reported in the state of Kerala followed by Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Delhi. Following such a situation and then sudden increase in the no of cases all over the country a major decision was taken that was of Complete lockdown excluding the emergency and essential services. Before taking the step of lockdown, as a gesture of respect to the frontline workers, government of India announced Tali Bajao movement. In the period of lockdown Certain norms were even made mandatory that were wearing a mask, maintenance of hand sanitation and following social distancing of 1.5 meters in public places. All the educational institutes and teachings were even suspended during the time period of lockdown as it could have become a hub for the virus to spread. With time, the restrictions which were laid down in lockdown were started to be reduced in the phase wise manner and finally India noticed its very first Unlock period. In all this scenario mankind has dealt with various situations and have emerged to be a better person. All these steps were crucial to control the spread of Novel Coronavirus and prevention from the already spread cases.

scholarly journals Stepping up infection control measures in ophthalmology during the novel coronavirus outbreak: an experience from Hong Kong

2020 ◽  
Vol 258 (5) ◽  
pp. 1049-1055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy H. T. Lai ◽  
Emily W. H. Tang ◽  
Sandy K. Y. Chau ◽  
Kitty S. C. Fung ◽  
Kenneth K. W. Li
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Discovery of alliin as a putative inhibitor of the main protease of SARS-CoV-2 by molecular docking

BioTechniques ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijun Cheng ◽  
Tianjiao Li
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Docking ◽  
Pharmaceutical Compounds ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Important Target ◽  
Main Protease ◽  
Docking Method ◽  
Life Threatening ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Molecular Docking Method

The outbreak of viral pneumonia caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that began in December 2019 caused high mortality. It has been suggested that the main protease (Mpro) of SARS-CoV-2 may be an important target to discover pharmaceutical compounds for the therapy of this life-threatening disease. Remdesivir, ritonavir and chloroquine have all been reported to play a role in suppressing SARS-CoV-2. Here, we applied a molecular docking method to study the binding stability of these drugs with SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. It appeared that the ligand–protein binding stability of the alliin and SARS-CoV-2 Mpro complex was better than others. The results suggested that alliin may serve as a good candidate as an inhibitor of SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. Therefore, the present research may provide some meaningful guidance for the prevention and treatment of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.

scholarly journals Low COVID-19 impact in Africa: The multifactorial Nexus

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Aniefiok Udoakang ◽  
Mary Oboh ◽  
Agatha Henry-Ajala ◽  
Claudia Anyigba ◽  
Semeeh Omoleke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
The Novel ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Potential Factors ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Effective Public Health ◽  
A Current ◽  
Better Than

Africa has defied predictions of being the worst hit by the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, which has devastated Europe, the Americas, and some Asian countries. However, with a current second and third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic across other continents, pertinent​ questions have arisen regarding the lower disease severity and seemingly better outcomes in most African countries. Several factors have been proposed as discussed in this review including, underreporting, quick lockdown measures, effective public health intervention, younger population structure, cross-immunity and experience from fighting previous epidemics, such as the Ebola virus outbreak, previous infections or vaccinations, genetic predisposition, and tropical climate. We have discussed the implications of these factors on the magnitude of the outbreak and the better-than-expected outcomes observed in Africa. In addition, other potential factors like vitamin-D deficiency and chronic non-communicable diseases could predispose non-African regions to severe COVID-19 outcome. Therefore, this review further advocates for research to understand the precise mechanisms responsible for the pandemic’s relatively mild impact in Africa and proposed recommendations to prevent an infection surge.

scholarly journals Application of Optimal Control to Long Term Dynamics of COVID-19 Disease in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farai Nyabadza ◽  
Williams Chukwu ◽  
Faraimunashe Chirove ◽  
fatmawati fatmawati ◽  
Princess Gatyeni
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
South African ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Public Health Importance ◽  
Mathematical Analyses ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Control And Management

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) belongs to the beta-coronavirus family, these include; the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Since its resurgence in South Africa in March 2020, it has lead to high mortality and thousands of people contracting the virus. In this study, we use a set of five differential equations to analyse the effects on long term dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic with optimal control measures. Mathematical analyses of the model without control were done and the basic reproduction number (R0) of the COVID-19 for the South African epidemic determined. The model steady states were also determined, and their analyses presented based on R0: We introduced permissible control measures and formulated an optimal control problem using the Pontraygain Maximum Principle. Our numerical findings suggest that joint implementation of effective mask usage, physical distancing and active screening and testing are effective measures to curtail the spread of the disease on undiagnosed humans. The results obtained in this paper are of public health importance in the control and management of the spread for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in South Africa.

scholarly journals Impact of Vaccination on the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from U.S. States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Chen ◽  
Hanwei Huang ◽  
Jiandong Ju ◽  
Ruoyan Sun ◽  
Jialiang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Governments worldwide are implementing mass vaccination programs in an effort to end the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Here, we evaluated the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination program and predicted the path to herd immunity in the U.S. We estimated that vaccination reduced the total number of new cases by 4.4 million (from 33.0 to 28.6 million), prevented approximately 0.12 million hospitalizations (from 0.89 to 0.78 million), and decreased the population infection rate by 1.34 percentage points (from 10.10–8.76%). We built a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with vaccination to predict herd immunity. Our model predicts that the U.S. can achieve herd immunity by the last week of July 2021, with a cumulative vaccination coverage of 60.2%. Herd immunity could be achieved earlier with a faster vaccination pace, lower vaccine hesitancy, and higher vaccine effectiveness. These findings improve our understanding of the COVID-19 vaccination and can inform future public health policies.

scholarly journals Community grid management is an important measure to contain the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ling ◽  
Xianjie Wen
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grid Management

Abstract The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)), declared as a ‘global pandemic’ by the World Health Organization (WHO), is a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The outbreak in multiple locations shows a trend of accelerating spread around the world. China has taken a series of powerful measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to actively finding effective treatment drugs and developing vaccines, it is more important to identify the source of infection at the community level as soon as possible to block the transmission path of the virus to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The implementation of grid management in the community and the adoption of precise management and control measures to reduce unnecessary personnel movement can effectively reduce the risk of pandemic spread. This paper mainly describes that the grid management mode can promote the refinement and comprehensiveness of community management. As a management system with potential to improve the governance ability of community affairs, it may be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic in the community.

scholarly journals Time from Symptom Onset to Hospitalisation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases: Implications for the Proportion of Transmissions from Infectors with Few Symptoms

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin N. Thompson ◽  
Francesca A. Lovell-Read ◽  
Uri Obolski
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Interventions targeting symptomatic hosts and their contacts were successful in bringing the 2003 SARS pandemic under control. In contrast, the COVID-19 pandemic has been harder to contain, partly because of its wide spectrum of symptoms in infectious hosts. Current evidence suggests that individuals can transmit the novel coronavirus while displaying few symptoms. Here, we show that the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms at the start of an outbreak can, in combination with the basic reproduction number, indicate whether or not interventions targeting symptomatic hosts are likely to be effective. However, as an outbreak continues, the proportion of infections arising from hosts with few symptoms changes in response to control measures. A high proportion of infections from hosts with few symptoms after the initial stages of an outbreak is only problematic if the rate of new infections remains high. Otherwise, it can simply indicate that symptomatic transmissions are being prevented successfully. This should be considered when interpreting estimates of the extent of transmission from hosts with few COVID-19 symptoms.

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