scholarly journals Predicting Customer Behavior Using Prophet Algorithm In A Real Time Series Dataset

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (25) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ledion Liço ◽  
Indrit Enesi ◽  
Harshita Jaiswal
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Error ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Department Store ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Time Series Dataset ◽  
Sales Prediction

Customer Relationship Management is important in analyzing business performance. Predicting customer buying behavior enables the business to better address their customers and enhance service level and overall profit. This paper focuses on proposing a model that predicts future period sales in a real retail department store with low prediction error rate, and it also discovers the main sales trends over time. A model based on the Prophet algorithm is implemented and modified according to different parameters in order to lower the prediction error. The modifications consisted of the insertion of a new seasonality pattern, changes in the Fourier order of the existing and the new seasonality pattern, inclusion of the holiday data, and parameterizing its impact. The performance of the standard and modified model is evaluated in terms of the MAE (mean absolute error) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). The standard and the modified model were tested on a real dataset consisting of the sales between 2011-2019 in a department store of a shopping center in Albania. Implementation results show that the MAE in sales prediction for the modified model is reduced, while the MAPE in sales prediction for the modified model was measured for prediction periods. The implementation results indicate a comparable or evenbetter performance than the standard model. different

scholarly journals Evaluation of Several Error Measures Applied to the Sales Forecast System of Chemicals Supply Enterprises

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Ma. del Rocío Castillo Estrada ◽  
Marco Edgar Gómez Camarillo ◽  
María Eva Sánchez Parraguirre ◽  
Marco Edgar Gómez Castillo ◽  
Efraín Meneses Juárez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Error Evaluation ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Prediction Techniques ◽  
Evaluation Techniques

The objective of the industry in general, and of the chemical industry in particular, is to satisfy consumer demand for products and the best way to satisfy it is to forecast future sales and plan its operations.Considering that the choice of the best sales forecast model will largely depend on the accuracy of the selected indicator (Tofallis, 2015), in this work, seven techniques are compared, in order to select the most appropriate, for quantifying the error presented by the sales forecast models. These error evaluation techniques are: Mean Percentage Error (MPE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE), Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) and Mean Absolute Arctangent Percentage Error (MAAPE). Forecasts for chemical product sales, to which error evaluation techniques are applied, are those obtained and reported by Castillo, et. al. (2016 & 2020).The error measuring techniques whose calculation yields adequate and convenient results, for the six prediction techniques handled in this article, as long as its interpretation is intuitive, are SMAPE and MAAPE. In this case, the most adequate technique to measure the error presented by the sales prediction system turned out to be SMAPE.

Performance Evaluation of Telecom Equipment Maintenance Outsourcers Based on Statistical Distance with Weight

2011 ◽  
Vol 328-330 ◽  
pp. 2440-2445
Author(s):  
Yong Jie Zhou ◽  
Nan Fang Cui
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Service Level ◽  
Relationship Maintenance ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Equipment Maintenance ◽  
Evaluation Indexes ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Method ◽  
Outsourcing Decision

It’s important to control telecom equipment maintenance outsourcers’ performance in outsourcing decision-making process by selecting the proper evaluation indexes. This paper sets up a new comprehensive evaluation method based on statistics distance with weight to assess outsourcer’s performance. Ten indexes are choosed to determine which are good service providers from the ability and effort degree of their work, including failure rate, failure loss, service level, maintenance price, management fee, arrive time, repair time, customer relationship, maintenance engineer and tool machine. Each index has its own expert’s weight. We classify different service grades and calculate the real distance of every maintenance outsourcer by Euclidean distance. Then the performance of each equipment maintenance outsourcer can be inspected from the calculation result. Through the application in telecom company we testify its advantages compared with other evaluation methods.

scholarly journals Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic in Indonesia: Cases Overview and Daily Data Time Series using Naïve Forecast Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Annisa Puspa Kirana ◽  
Adhitya Bhawiyuga
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Average Case ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Time Series Dataset ◽  
The World ◽  
Forecasting Analysis

At the end of December 2019, the virus emerges from Wuhan, China, and resulted in a severe outbreak in many cities in China and expanding globally, including Indonesia. Indonesia is the fourth most populated country globally. As of February 2021, Indonesia in the first rank of positive cases of COVID-19 in Southeast Asia, number 4 in Asia, and number 19 in the world. Our paper aims to provide detailed reporting and analysis of the COVID-19 case overview and forecasting that have hit Indonesia. Our time-series dataset from March 2020 to January 2021. Summary of cases studied included the number of positive cases and deaths due to COVID-19 on a daily or monthly basis. We use time series and forecasting analysis using the Naïve Forecast method.  The prediction is daily case prediction for six months starting from February 1, 2021, to June 30, 2021, using active cases daily COVID-19 data in all provinces in Indonesia. The highest monthly average case prediction is in June, which is 35,662 cases. Our COVID-19 prediction study has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) score of 15.85%.

scholarly journals Novel Spatiotemporal Feature Extraction Parallel Deep Neural Network for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiou-Jye Huang ◽  
Yamin Shen ◽  
Ping-Huan Kuo ◽  
Yung-Hsiang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
The Other ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Spatiotemporal Feature ◽  
The Mean

AbstractThe coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic continues as of March 26 and spread to Europe on approximately February 24. A report from April 29 revealed 1.26 million confirmed cases and 125 928 deaths in Europe. This study proposed a novel deep neural network framework, COVID-19Net, which parallelly combines a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional gated recurrent units (GRUs). Three European countries with severe outbreaks were studied—Germany, Italy, and Spain—to extract spatiotemporal feature and predict the number of confirmed cases. The prediction results acquired from COVID-19Net were compared to those obtained using a CNN, GRU, and CNN-GRU. The mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error, which are commonly used model assessment indices, were used to compare the accuracy of the models. The results verified that COVID-19Net was notably more accurate than the other models. The mean absolute percentage error generated by COVID-19Net was 1.447 for Germany, 1.801 for Italy, and 2.828 for Spain, which were considerably lower than those of the other models. This indicated that the proposed framework can accurately predict the accumulated number of confirmed cases in the three countries and serve as a crucial reference for devising public health strategies.

scholarly journals Predicting the Istanbul Stock Exchange Index Return using Technical Indicators

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 111-117
Author(s):  
Senol Emir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Technical Indicators ◽  
Istanbul Stock Exchange ◽  
Vector Machines ◽  
Classical Linear Regression ◽  
Daily Returns

The aim of this study to examine the performance of Support Vector Regression (SVR) which is a novel regression method based on Support Vector Machines (SVM) approach in predicting the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) National 100 Index daily returns. For bechmarking, results given by SVR were compared to those given by classical Linear Regression (LR). Dataset contains 6 technical indicators which were selected as model inputs for 2005-2011 period. Grid search and cross valiadation is used for finding optimal model parameters and evaluating the models. Comparisons were made based on Root Mean Square (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Theil Inequality Coefficient (TIC) and Mean Mixed Error (MME) metrics. Results indicate that SVR outperforms the LR for all metrics.

A method for predicting the capacity of a lithium-ion battery based on deep neural network

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
JamesChan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Neural Network ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Chemical Conversion ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
True Value ◽  
Battery Capacity

This paper proposes a solution to predict the capacity of the lithium-ion battery's capacity division process using deep learning methods. This solution extracts the physical observation records of part of the process steps from the chemical conversion and volumetric processes as features, and trains a Deep Neural Network (DNN) to achieve accurate prediction of battery capacity. According to the test, the average percentage absolute error (Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MAPE) of the battery capacity predicted by this model is only 0.78% compared with the true value. Combining this model with the production line can greatly reduce production time and energy consumption, and reduce battery production costs.

Forecasting Malaysian overnight islamic interbank rate using the Box-Jenkins model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-51
Author(s):  
N.S.M. Radzi ◽  
S.R. Yaziz
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Prediction Intervals ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Forecasting Performance

Modelling the overnight Islamic interbank rate (IIR) is imperative to define the IIR performance as it would help the Islamic banks to adjust its costs of funding effectively and facilitate the policy makers to regulate a comprehensive monetary policy in Malaysia. The IIR framework which has been regulated by Bank Negara Malaysia under dual banking and financial system has always been overlooked in most previous studies in modelling the financial instruments rates. Therefore, it is vital to select the appropriate model as it resembles with the features of the IIR. The study assesses the forecasting performance of overnight IIR using the Box-Jenkins model. The suggested Box-Jenkins model has been applied to the Malaysian overnight IIR (in percentage) from 02/01/2001 to 31/12/2020. The empirical results determine that ARIMA (0,1,1) is the most appropriate model in forecasting overnight IIR as the model provides the smallest Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). In multistep ahead forecasting, it can be summarised that ARIMA (0,1,1) model is able to trail the actual data trend of daily Malaysian overnight IIR up to 5-day ahead within 95% prediction intervals.

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