scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Insurance Uptake in Kenya

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nelson Yego ◽  
Juma Kasozi ◽  
Joseph Nkrunziza
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The role of insurance in financial inclusion as well as in economic growth is immense. However, low uptake seems to impede the growth of the sector hence the need for a model that robustly predicts uptake of insurance among potential clients. In this research, we compared the performances of eight (8) machine learning models in predicting the uptake of insurance. The classifiers considered were Logistic Regression, Gaussian Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machines, K Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines and Extreme Gradient boosting. The data used in the classification was from the 2016 Kenya FinAccess Household Survey. Comparison of performance was done for both upsampled and downsampled data due to data imbalance. For upsampled data, Random Forest classifier showed highest accuracy and precision compared to other classifiers but for down sampled data, gradient boosting was optimal. It is noteworthy that for both upsampled and downsampled data, tree-based classifiers were more robust than others in insurance uptake prediction. However, in spite of hyper-parameter optimization, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve remained highest for Random Forest as compared to other tree-based models. Also, the confusion matrix for Random Forest showed least false positives, and highest true positives hence could be construed as the most robust model for predicting the insurance uptake. Finally, the most important feature in predicting uptake was having a bank product hence bancassurance could be said to be a plausible channel of distribution of insurance products.

scholarly journals Performance of Statistical and Machine Learning-Based Methods for Predicting Biogeographical Patterns of Fungal Productivity in Forest Ecosystems

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Morera ◽  
Juan Martínez de Aragón ◽  
José Antonio Bonet ◽  
Jingjing Liang ◽  
Sergio de-Miguel
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Modelling Approaches

Abstract BackgroundThe prediction of biogeographical patterns from a large number of driving factors with complex interactions, correlations and non-linear dependences require advanced analytical methods and modelling tools. This study compares different statistical and machine learning models for predicting fungal productivity biogeographical patterns as a case study for the thorough assessment of the performance of alternative modelling approaches to provide accurate and ecologically-consistent predictions.MethodsWe evaluated and compared the performance of two statistical modelling techniques, namely, generalized linear mixed models and geographically weighted regression, and four machine learning models, namely, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine and deep learning to predict fungal productivity. We used a systematic methodology based on substitution, random, spatial and climatic blocking combined with principal component analysis, together with an evaluation of the ecological consistency of spatially-explicit model predictions.ResultsFungal productivity predictions were sensitive to the modelling approach and complexity. Moreover, the importance assigned to different predictors varied between machine learning modelling approaches. Decision tree-based models increased prediction accuracy by ~7% compared to other machine learning approaches and by more than 25% compared to statistical ones, and resulted in higher ecological consistence at the landscape level.ConclusionsWhereas a large number of predictors are often used in machine learning algorithms, in this study we show that proper variable selection is crucial to create robust models for extrapolation in biophysically differentiated areas. When dealing with spatial-temporal data in the analysis of biogeographical patterns, climatic blocking is postulated as a highly informative technique to be used in cross-validation to assess the prediction error over larger scales. Random forest was the best approach for prediction both in sampling-like environments as well as in extrapolation beyond the spatial and climatic range of the modelling data.

scholarly journals Prediction of Post-Intubation Tachycardia Using Machine-Learning Models

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1151
Author(s):  
Hanna Kim ◽  
Young-Seob Jeong ◽  
Ah Reum Kang ◽  
Woohyun Jung ◽  
Yang Hoon Chung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Feature Sets ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Post Intubation ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Tachycardia is defined as a heart rate greater than 100 bpm for more than 1 min. Tachycardia often occurs after endotracheal intubation and can cause serious complication in patients with cardiovascular disease. The ability to predict post-intubation tachycardia would help clinicians by notifying a potential event to pre-treat. In this paper, we predict the potential post-intubation tachycardia. Given electronic medical record and vital signs collected before tracheal intubation, we predict whether post-intubation tachycardia will occur within 10 min. Of 1931 available patient datasets, 257 remained after filtering those with inappropriate data such as outliers and inappropriate annotations. Three feature sets were designed using feature selection algorithms, and two additional feature sets were defined by statistical inspection or manual examination. The five feature sets were compared with various machine learning models such as naïve Bayes classifiers, logistic regression, random forest, support vector machines, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural networks. Parameters of the models were optimized for each feature set. By 10-fold cross validation, we found that an logistic regression model with eight-dimensional hand-crafted features achieved an accuracy of 80.5%, recall of 85.1%, precision of 79.9%, an F1 score of 79.9%, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85.

scholarly journals Machine learning models to identify low adherence to influenza vaccination among Korean adults with cardiovascular disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moojung Kim ◽  
Young Jae Kim ◽  
Sung Jin Park ◽  
Kwang Gi Kim ◽  
Pyung Chun Oh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Background Annual influenza vaccination is an important public health measure to prevent influenza infections and is strongly recommended for cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients, especially in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning model to identify Korean adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination Methods Adults with CVD (n = 815) from a nationally representative dataset of the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V) were analyzed. Among these adults, 500 (61.4%) had answered "yes" to whether they had received seasonal influenza vaccinations in the past 12 months. The classification process was performed using the logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) machine learning techniques. Because the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Korea offers free influenza immunization for the elderly, separate models were developed for the < 65 and ≥ 65 age groups. Results The accuracy of machine learning models using 16 variables as predictors of low influenza vaccination adherence was compared; for the ≥ 65 age group, XGB (84.7%) and RF (84.7%) have the best accuracies, followed by LR (82.7%) and SVM (77.6%). For the < 65 age group, SVM has the best accuracy (68.4%), followed by RF (64.9%), LR (63.2%), and XGB (61.4%). Conclusions The machine leaning models show comparable performance in classifying adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Models of Acute Kidney Injury Prediction in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Cheng Qu ◽  
Lin Gao ◽  
Xian-qiang Yu ◽  
Mei Wei ◽  
Guo-quan Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Background. Acute kidney injury (AKI) has long been recognized as a common and important complication of acute pancreatitis (AP). In the study, machine learning (ML) techniques were used to establish predictive models for AKI in AP patients during hospitalization. This is a retrospective review of prospectively collected data of AP patients admitted within one week after the onset of abdominal pain to our department from January 2014 to January 2019. Eighty patients developed AKI after admission (AKI group) and 254 patients did not (non-AKI group) in the hospital. With the provision of additional information such as demographic characteristics or laboratory data, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to build models of AKI prediction and compared to the predictive performance of the classic model using logistic regression (LR). XGBoost performed best in predicting AKI with an AUC of 91.93% among the machine learning models. The AUC of logistic regression analysis was 87.28%. Present findings suggest that compared to the classical logistic regression model, machine learning models using features that can be easily obtained at admission had a better performance in predicting AKI in the AP patients.

scholarly journals The prediction of asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis with electronic health records: a comparative study of six machine learning models

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaxin Fan ◽  
Mengying Chen ◽  
Jian Luo ◽  
Shusen Yang ◽  
Jinming Shi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Electronic Health Records ◽  
Carotid Atherosclerosis ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Health Records ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Background Screening carotid B-mode ultrasonography is a frequently used method to detect subjects with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS). Due to the asymptomatic progression of most CAS patients, early identification is challenging for clinicians, and it may trigger ischemic stroke. Recently, machine learning has shown a strong ability to classify data and a potential for prediction in the medical field. The combined use of machine learning and the electronic health records of patients could provide clinicians with a more convenient and precise method to identify asymptomatic CAS. Methods Retrospective cohort study using routine clinical data of medical check-up subjects from April 19, 2010 to November 15, 2019. Six machine learning models (logistic regression [LR], random forest [RF], decision tree [DT], eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGB], Gaussian Naïve Bayes [GNB], and K-Nearest Neighbour [KNN]) were used to predict asymptomatic CAS and compared their predictability in terms of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC), accuracy (ACC), and F1 score (F1). Results Of the 18,441 subjects, 6553 were diagnosed with asymptomatic CAS. Compared to DT (AUCROC 0.628, ACC 65.4%, and F1 52.5%), the other five models improved prediction: KNN + 7.6% (0.704, 68.8%, and 50.9%, respectively), GNB + 12.5% (0.753, 67.0%, and 46.8%, respectively), XGB + 16.0% (0.788, 73.4%, and 55.7%, respectively), RF + 16.6% (0.794, 74.5%, and 56.8%, respectively) and LR + 18.1% (0.809, 74.7%, and 59.9%, respectively). The highest achieving model, LR predicted 1045/1966 cases (sensitivity 53.2%) and 3088/3566 non-cases (specificity 86.6%). A tenfold cross-validation scheme further verified the predictive ability of the LR. Conclusions Among machine learning models, LR showed optimal performance in predicting asymptomatic CAS. Our findings set the stage for an early automatic alarming system, allowing a more precise allocation of CAS prevention measures to individuals probably to benefit most.

scholarly journals Machine learning models for screening carotid atherosclerosis in asymptomatic adults

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yu ◽  
Yan Zhou ◽  
Qiong Yang ◽  
Xiaoling Liu ◽  
Lili Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Physical Examination ◽  
Carotid Atherosclerosis ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Cerebrovascular Events ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Routine Physical Examination ◽  
Machine Learning Models

AbstractCarotid atherosclerosis (CAS) is a risk factor for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, but duplex ultrasonography isn’t recommended in routine screening for asymptomatic populations according to medical guidelines. We aim to develop machine learning models to screen CAS in asymptomatic adults. A total of 2732 asymptomatic subjects for routine physical examination in our hospital were included in the study. We developed machine learning models to classify subjects with or without CAS using decision tree, random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) with 17 candidate features. The performance of models was assessed on the testing dataset. The model using MLP achieved the highest accuracy (0.748), positive predictive value (0.743), F1 score (0.742), area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.766) and Kappa score (0.445) among all classifiers. It’s followed by models using XGBoost and SVM. In conclusion, the model using MLP is the best one to screen CAS in asymptomatic adults based on the results from routine physical examination, followed by using XGBoost and SVM. Those models may provide an effective and applicable method for physician and primary care doctors to screen asymptomatic CAS without risk factors in general population, and improve risk predictions and preventions of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in asymptomatic adults.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Models for Sarcopenia Identification Based on Radiomic Features of Muscles in Computed Tomography

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 8710
Author(s):  
Young Jae Kim
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Computed Tomography ◽  
Ct Images ◽  
Erector Spinae ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Gray Level ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Nsclc Patients ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The diagnosis of sarcopenia requires accurate muscle quantification. As an alternative to manual muscle mass measurement through computed tomography (CT), artificial intelligence can be leveraged for the automation of these measurements. Although generally difficult to identify with the naked eye, the radiomic features in CT images are informative. In this study, the radiomic features were extracted from L3 CT images of the entire muscle area and partial areas of the erector spinae collected from non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) patients. The first-order statistics and gray-level co-occurrence, gray-level size zone, gray-level run length, neighboring gray-tone difference, and gray-level dependence matrices were the radiomic features analyzed. The identification performances of the following machine learning models were evaluated: logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). Sex, coarseness, skewness, and cluster prominence were selected as the relevant features effectively identifying sarcopenia. The XGB model demonstrated the best performance for the entire muscle, whereas the SVM was the worst-performing model. Overall, the models demonstrated improved performance for the entire muscle compared to the erector spinae. Although further validation is required, the radiomic features presented here could become reliable indicators for quantifying the phenomena observed in the muscles of NSCLC patients, thus facilitating the diagnosis of sarcopenia.

scholarly journals Estimation of Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Small Water Bodies: Comparison of Fused Gaofen-6 and Sentinel-2 Sensors

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 229
Author(s):  
Jiarui Shi ◽  
Qian Shen ◽  
Yue Yao ◽  
Junsheng Li ◽  
Fu Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Small Water ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models ◽  
Sentinel 2 ◽  
Small Water Bodies

Chlorophyll-a concentrations in water bodies are one of the most important environmental evaluation indicators in monitoring the water environment. Small water bodies include headwater streams, springs, ditches, flushes, small lakes, and ponds, which represent important freshwater resources. However, the relatively narrow and fragmented nature of small water bodies makes it difficult to monitor chlorophyll-a via medium-resolution remote sensing. In the present study, we first fused Gaofen-6 (a new Chinese satellite) images to obtain 2 m resolution images with 8 bands, which was approved as a good data source for Chlorophyll-a monitoring in small water bodies as Sentinel-2. Further, we compared five semi-empirical and four machine learning models to estimate chlorophyll-a concentrations via simulated reflectance using fused Gaofen-6 and Sentinel-2 spectral response function. The results showed that the extreme gradient boosting tree model (one of the machine learning models) is the most accurate. The mean relative error (MRE) was 9.03%, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.5 mg/m3 for the Sentinel-2 sensor, while for the fused Gaofen-6 image, MRE was 6.73%, and RMSE was 3.26 mg/m3. Thus, both fused Gaofen-6 and Sentinel-2 could estimate the chlorophyll-a concentrations in small water bodies. Since the fused Gaofen-6 exhibited a higher spatial resolution and Sentinel-2 exhibited a higher temporal resolution.

scholarly journals Machine learning as a successful approach for predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species abundance

2021 ◽  
pp. 289-301
Author(s):  
B. Martín ◽  
J. González–Arias ◽  
J. A. Vicente–Vírseda
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Animal Species ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Stochastic Gradient Boosting ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Our aim was to identify an optimal analytical approach for accurately predicting complex spatio–temporal patterns in animal species distribution. We compared the performance of eight modelling techniques (generalized additive models, regression trees, bagged CART, k–nearest neighbors, stochastic gradient boosting, support vector machines, neural network, and random forest –enhanced form of bootstrap. We also performed extreme gradient boosting –an enhanced form of radiant boosting– to predict spatial patterns in abundance of migrating Balearic shearwaters based on data gathered within eBird. Derived from open–source datasets, proxies of frontal systems and ocean productivity domains that have been previously used to characterize the oceanographic habitats of seabirds were quantified, and then used as predictors in the models. The random forest model showed the best performance according to the parameters assessed (RMSE value and R2). The correlation between observed and predicted abundance with this model was also considerably high. This study shows that the combination of machine learning techniques and massive data provided by open data sources is a useful approach for identifying the long–term spatial–temporal distribution of species at regional spatial scales.

scholarly journals Techniques for Detecting Malware Traffic: A Comprehensive Approach to Feature Selection and Classification

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Harsha A K
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Malware Detection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract: Since the advent of encryption, there has been a steady increase in malware being transmitted over encrypted networks. Traditional approaches to detect malware like packet content analysis are inefficient in dealing with encrypted data. In the absence of actual packet contents, we can make use of other features like packet size, arrival time, source and destination addresses and other such metadata to detect malware. Such information can be used to train machine learning classifiers in order to classify malicious and benign packets. In this paper, we offer an efficient malware detection approach using classification algorithms in machine learning such as support vector machine, random forest and extreme gradient boosting. We employ an extensive feature selection process to reduce the dimensionality of the chosen dataset. The dataset is then split into training and testing sets. Machine learning algorithms are trained using the training set. These models are then evaluated against the testing set in order to assess their respective performances. We further attempt to tune the hyper parameters of the algorithms, in order to achieve better results. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting algorithms performed exceptionally well in our experiments, resulting in area under the curve values of 0.9928 and 0.9998 respectively. Our work demonstrates that malware traffic can be effectively classified using conventional machine learning algorithms and also shows the importance of dimensionality reduction in such classification problems. Keywords: Malware Detection, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Feature Selection.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document