scholarly journals Innate Perception of Risk: Probability Ratio or Difference?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milind Watve ◽  
Harshada Vidwans Dubey ◽  
Rohini Kharate
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Formal Training ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Behavioral Factor ◽  
Formally Trained ◽  
Question Survey ◽  
Public Health Literature

In public health literature the risk of death or disease associated with a dietary, environmental of behavioral factor is most commonly denoted by odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio (HR) or risk ratio (RR). The ratio indices have several desirable statistical properties. However, the most important question is whether there are some evolved innate norms of perception of risk that people use and what they are. We conducted a simple one question survey of 98 individuals with different age, sex, educational and professional backgrounds. The respondents were asked to judge the relative perceived risk of four different hypothetical habits for which data on the percentage of people affected by the disease with and without the habit was given. They were asked to rank the risks for the four habits. Results showed that the habits that had the highest difference between probability of acquiring the disease were ranked high on risk perception. The probability ratios did not affect risk perception significantly. Further age, sex, profession or formal training in statistics did not affect the response significantly. Even individuals that were formally trained to use OR and HR as risk indicators, preferred using probability differences over ratios for judging their own risk in the perceived context. This preliminary inquiry into intuitive statistical perception suggests that designing statistical indices based on people’s innate perception may be a better strategy than trying to train people to understand the indices designed by expert statisticians.

La percezione del rischio in adolescenza: costruzione e validazione di strumenti di rilevazione

2009 ◽  
pp. 145-162
Author(s):  
Anna Rosa Donizzetti
Keyword(s):  
Complex System ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Psychometric Properties ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Unrealistic Optimism ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Healthy Behaviour

- If compared to other periods of life, adolescence is characterized by a tendency to implement more likely behaviours that can be harmful to health. The implementation of such behaviours stems from a complex system of assessments, in which the perception of risk is an important, though not exclusive (Petrillo, 2008), factor. To measure adolescence risk perception a question have been used to detect self-reported perceptions and another question for hetero-reported ones. In order to get less general and more suitable measures for this type of target five scales were constructed, referring to different spheres of behaviour (diet, exercise, consumption of alcohol and cigarettes, sexuality), through which subjects were asked to evaluate six possible negative outcomes for themselves and their friends, derived from each behaviour. The scales were administered to 1.107 students of Naples, almost equally distributed by gender (male 40.6% and 59.4% females) and with an average age of 15.7 years. The exploratory and confirmative factor analysis, conducted on each scale of perceived risk, self and hetero reported, showed monodimensional structures, with satisfactory psychometric properties.Key words: personal risk perception, risk perception of peers, adolescents, healthy behaviour, unrealistic optimism, detection scalesParole chiave: percezione del rischio personale, percezione del rischio dei coetanei, adolescenza, comportamenti salutari, ottimismo irrealistico, strumenti di rilevazione

scholarly journals Pregnancy related risk perception in pregnant women, midwives & doctors: a cross-sectional survey

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzanne Lee ◽  
Des Holden ◽  
Rebecca Webb ◽  
Susan Ayers
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Women Doctors ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Degree Of Risk

Abstract Background Risk perception in relation to pregnancy and birth is a complex process influenced by multiple personal, psychological and societal factors. Traditionally, the risk perception of healthcare professionals has been presented as more objective and authoritative than that of pregnant women. Doctors have been presented as more concerned with biomedical risk than midwives. Such dichotomies oversimplify and obscure the complexity of the process. This study examines pregnancy-related risk perception in women and healthcare professionals, and what women and professionals believe about each other’s risk perception. Methods A cross sectional survey of set in UK maternity services. Participants were doctors working in obstetrics (N = 53), midwives (N = 59), pregnant women (N = 68). Participants were recruited in person from two hospitals. Doctors were also recruited online. Participants completed a questionnaire measuring the degree of perceived risk in various childbirth-related scenarios; and the extent to which they believed others agreed with them about the degree of risk generally involved in childbirth. Main outcome measures were the degree of risk perceived to the mother in baby in pregnancy scenarios, and beliefs about own perception of risk in comparison to their own group and other groups. Results There were significant differences in total risk scores between pregnant women, doctors and midwives in perception of risk to the mother in 68/80 scenarios. Doctors most frequently rated risks lowest. Total scores for perceived risk to the baby were not significantly different. There was substantial variation within each group. There was more agreement on the ranking of scenarios according to risk. Each group believed doctors perceived most risk whereas actually doctors most frequently rated risks lowest. Each group incorrectly believed their peers rated risk similarly to themselves. Conclusions Individuals cannot assume others share their perception of risk or that they make correct assessments regarding others’ risk perception. Further research should consider what factors are taken into account when making risk assessments,

scholarly journals Risk Perception in a Real-World Situation (COVID-19): How It Changes From 18 to 87 Years Old

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessia Rosi ◽  
Floris Tijmen van Vugt ◽  
Serena Lecce ◽  
Irene Ceccato ◽  
Martine Vallarino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Real World ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Different Ages ◽  
Real World Situation

Studies on age-related differences in risk perception in a real-world situation, such as the recent COVID-19 outbreak, showed that the risk perception of getting COVID-19 tends to decrease as age increases. This finding raised the question on what factors could explain risk perception in older adults. The present study examined age-related differences in risk perception in the early stages of COVID-19 lockdown, analyzing variables that can explain the differences in perception of risk at different ages. A total of 1,765 adults aged between 18 and 87 years old completed an online survey assessing perceived risk severity and risk vulnerability of getting COVID-19, sociodemographic status, emotional state, experience relating to COVID-19, and physical health status. Results showed that the older the participants, the lower the perceived vulnerability to getting COVID-19, but the higher the perceived severity. Different predictors explain the perception of risk severity and vulnerability at different ages. Overall, self-reported anxiety over the pandemic is a crucial predictor in explaining risk perceptions in all age groups. Theoretical and practical implications of the empirical findings are discussed.

scholarly journals Influence of Empathy Disposition and Risk Perception on the Psychological Impact of Lockdown During the Coronavirus Disease Pandemic Outbreak

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Grignoli ◽  
Serena Petrocchi ◽  
Sheila Bernardi ◽  
Ilaria Massari ◽  
Rafael Traber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Psychological Adaptation ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Health Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Objective Risk

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, and especially in the absence of availability of an effective treatment or a vaccine, the main health measure is neither chemical nor biological, but behavioral. To reduce the exponential growth of infections due to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the resulting overburdening of the healthcare system, many European Countries, parts of the US and Switzerland gradually implemented measures of quarantine and isolation defined as lockdown. This consideration leads to the need to understand how individuals are motivated to protect themselves and others. Recent research suggested that prosocial mental dispositions, such as empathy, might promote adherence to social norms of distancing. Other research conducted during the COVID-19 outbreak indicates, however, that empathy levels might fluctuate according to anxiety linked to the risk of death, and this negatively predicted prosocial willingness. The present protocol proposes a study on whether people's empathic dispositions, interacting with the levels of risk, influence the psychological impact of lockdown. The rationale is that emphatic dispositions, encouraging the acceptance of the lockdown, determine a better psychological adaptation and less distress. One retrospective study will be developed in Switzerland and, if the pandemic conditions force a new wave of lockdown on the population, one prospective study as well. A total of 120 participants will be involved, distinguished by their level of objective risk: (1) high objective risk (COVID-19 positive patients, hospitalized in isolation in post-acute phase); (2) moderate objective risk (COVID-19 positive patients, isolated at home); (3) minimum objective risk (non-positive adults, in lockdown). Measures of perceived risk of being contagious for third parties, empathic dispositions and acceptance of lockdown will be collected. The expected results provide important answers related to the immediate impact of empathic dispositions, effective risk and risk perception on the psychological impact of lockdown during a pandemic outbreak. Data gathered from this study could inform policy makers and public health managers about the best communication strategies that will take into account the various stages of health risk and, in particular, to modulate messages to the population aimed at inducing self-isolation behaviors.

scholarly journals Attachment, Personality and Locus of Control: Psychological Determinants of Risk Perception and Preventive Behaviors for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Tagini ◽  
Agostino Brugnera ◽  
Roberta Ferrucci ◽  
Ketti Mazzocco ◽  
Luca Pievani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Locus Of Control ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Preventive Behaviors ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Precautionary Measures

Background: The understanding of factors that shape risk perception is crucial to modulate the perceived threat and, in turn, to promote optimal engagement in preventive actions.Methods: An on-line, cross-sectional, survey was conducted in Italy between May and July 2020 to investigate risk perception for COVID-19 and the adoption of preventive measures. A total of 964 volunteers participated in the study. Possible predictors of risk perception were identified through a hierarchical multiple linear regression analysis, including sociodemographic, epidemiological and, most of all, psychological factors. A path analysis was adopted to probe the possible mediating role of risk perception on the relationship between the independent variables considered and the adoption of preventive measures.Results: Focusing on the psychological predictors of risk perception, high levels of anxiety, an anxious attachment, and an external locus of control predicted higher perceived risk. Conversely, high levels of openness personality and of avoidant attachment predicted a lower perception of risk. In turn, the higher was the perceived risk the higher was the adoption of precautionary measures. Furthermore, psychological factors influenced the adoption of preventive behaviors both directly and indirectly through their effect on risk perception.Conclusions: Our findings might be taken into high consideration by stakeholders, who are responsible for promoting a truthful perception of risk and proper compliance with precautionary measures.

scholarly journals The amplification of risk in experimental diffusion chains

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (18) ◽  
pp. 5631-5636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehdi Moussaïd ◽  
Henry Brighton ◽  
Wolfgang Gaissmaier
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Social Amplification Of Risk ◽  
Public Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Perceptions Of Risk ◽  
The Social ◽  
Risk Judgments

Understanding how people form and revise their perception of risk is central to designing efficient risk communication methods, eliciting risk awareness, and avoiding unnecessary anxiety among the public. However, public responses to hazardous events such as climate change, contagious outbreaks, and terrorist threats are complex and difficult-to-anticipate phenomena. Although many psychological factors influencing risk perception have been identified in the past, it remains unclear how perceptions of risk change when propagated from one person to another and what impact the repeated social transmission of perceived risk has at the population scale. Here, we study the social dynamics of risk perception by analyzing how messages detailing the benefits and harms of a controversial antibacterial agent undergo change when passed from one person to the next in 10-subject experimental diffusion chains. Our analyses show that when messages are propagated through the diffusion chains, they tend to become shorter, gradually inaccurate, and increasingly dissimilar between chains. In contrast, the perception of risk is propagated with higher fidelity due to participants manipulating messages to fit their preconceptions, thereby influencing the judgments of subsequent participants. Computer simulations implementing this simple influence mechanism show that small judgment biases tend to become more extreme, even when the injected message contradicts preconceived risk judgments. Our results provide quantitative insights into the social amplification of risk perception, and can help policy makers better anticipate and manage the public response to emerging threats.

RECYCLED WATER RISK PERCEPTION - A COMPARISON OF TWO CASE STUDIES

2007 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hurlimann
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Recycled Water ◽  
Urban Centre ◽  
On Line ◽  
Line Survey ◽  
Water Uses

This paper reports results from a study comparing perceived risk associated with various recycled water uses in two Australian locations, both in the state of Victoria: the capital city Melbourne, and Bendigo a regional urban centre. Both locations are experiencing ‘drought’, but Bendigo is experiencing this in a more acute manner. A case study is used in each location. Both case studies involve future use of recycled water in new commercial buildings. An on-line survey was used to measure attitudes to recycled water of the future occupants of both buildings. The study found perceived risk associated with 11 uses of recycled water increased as the use became increasingly personal. Interestingly, no difference in perceived risk associated with 11 uses of recycled water was found between locations. Prior experience (use) of recycled water was found to be a significant and positive factor in reducing risk perception. Various attitudinal variables were found to be significant influences on perceived risk. Results indicate that reducing perceived risk of recycled water use may increase satisfaction with its use.

scholarly journals A scoping review of factors that influence opioid overdose prevention for justice-involved populations

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine E. Grella ◽  
Erika Ostlie ◽  
Christy K. Scott ◽  
Michael L. Dennis ◽  
John Carnevale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Drug Use ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Overdose Prevention ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Prevention Interventions ◽  
Implementation And Dissemination ◽  
Injection Use ◽  
Release From Prison

Abstract Background There is a high risk of death from opioid overdose following release from prison. Efforts to develop and implement overdose prevention programs for justice-involved populations have increased in recent years. An understanding of the gaps in knowledge on prevention interventions is needed to accelerate development, implementation, and dissemination of effective strategies. Methods A systematic search process identified 43 published papers addressing opioid overdose prevention in criminal justice settings or among justice-involved populations from 2010 to February 2020. Cross-cutting themes were identified, coded and qualitatively analyzed. Results Papers were coded into five categories: acceptability (n = 8), accessibility (n = 4), effectiveness (n = 5), feasibility (n = 7), and participant overdose risk (n = 19). Common themes were: (1) Acceptability of naloxone is associated with injection drug use, overdose history, and perceived risk within the situational context; (2) Accessibility of naloxone is a function of the interface between corrections and community; (3) Evaluations of overdose prevention interventions are few, but generally show increases in knowledge or reductions in opioid overdose; (4) Coordinated efforts are needed to implement prevention interventions, address logistical challenges, and develop linkages between corrections and community providers; (5) Overdose is highest immediately following release from prison or jail, often preceded by service-system interactions, and associated with drug-use severity, injection use, and mental health disorders, as well as risks in the post-release environment. Conclusion Study findings can inform the development of overdose prevention interventions that target justice-involved individuals and policies to support their implementation across criminal justice and community-based service systems.

scholarly journals Impact of ambient sound on risk perception in humans: neuroeconomic investigations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elise Payzan-LeNestour ◽  
Lionnel Pradier ◽  
James Doran ◽  
Gideon Nave ◽  
Bernard Balleine
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Multisensory Perception ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Perception Of Risk ◽  
Asset Risk ◽  
Financial Trading ◽  
Ambient Sound ◽  
General Relevance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Professional Traders

AbstractResearch in the field of multisensory perception shows that what we hear can influence what we see in a wide range of perceptual tasks. It is however unknown whether this extends to the visual perception of risk, despite the importance of the question in many applied domains where properly assessing risk is crucial, starting with financial trading. To fill this knowledge gap, we ran interviews with professional traders and conducted three laboratory studies using judgments of financial asset risk as a testbed. We provide evidence that the presence of ambient sound impacts risk perception, possibly due to the combination of facilitatory and synesthetic effects of general relevance to the perception of risk in many species as well as humans. We discuss the implications of our findings for various applied domains (e.g., financial, medical, and military decision-making), and raise new questions for future research.

scholarly journals Get Close to the Robot: The Effect of Risk Perception of COVID-19 Pandemic on Customer–Robot Engagement

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6314
Author(s):  
Jifei Wu ◽  
Xiangyun Zhang ◽  
Yimin Zhu ◽  
Grace Fang Yu-Buck
Keyword(s):  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Service Robots ◽  
Industry Analysis ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Risk Seeking ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on customer–robot engagement in the Chinese hospitality industry. Analysis of a sample of 589 customers using service robots demonstrated that the perceived risk of COVID-19 has a positive influence on customer–robot engagement. The positive effect is mediated by social distancing and moderated by attitudes towards risk. Specifically, the mediating effect of social distancing between the perceived risk of COVID-19 and customer–robot engagement is stronger for risk-avoiding (vs. risk-seeking) customers. Our results provide insights for hotels when they employ service robots to cope with the shock of COVID-19 pandemic.

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