scholarly journals DINAMIKA UTANG PEMERINTAH DAN KESINAMBUNGAN FISKAL DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1980-2005: SUATU UJI PERBANDINGAN TIGA PENDEKATAN

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Gaffari Ramadhan ◽  
Robert SimanjunIak
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Middle Term ◽  
Dynamic Movement ◽  
Primary Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Right

Economic crisis which happened several years ago has caused many impacts to Indonesia. One of these impacts is a huge amount of government debt. Particularly, the government debt whether from domestic or foreign is one of the instruments to finance government expenditure which can not be fulfilled entirely by revenues from taxes. However, using the government debt to fund the government expenditure has consequences for the government to pay-back not only for the interest rate but also for the principal of debt which have maturity-date in the future. The purpose of this study is to analyze how far the development of the government debt dynamic from both domestic and foreign is correlated to fiscal sustainability. This study uses a case of lndonesia in period 1980-2005 which is divided into three periods: before crisis (1980-1997), crisis (1998-2000), and after crisis (2001-2005). In this study, we use Branson (1992) to analyze the government debt dynamic. In addition, we also use different approaches to have several comparisons in our analysis by Hamilton and Flavin (1986), Wilcox(1989), and Trehan and Walsh (1991). Besides that, we also conduct projection of the ratio of government revenue to GDP which is needed to support in decreasing of the ratio of government debt to GDP in the middle-term until 2010. In summary, this study shows that after the crisis, the dynamic movement of the government debt is decreasing continuously. Further more, the government debt and the primary deficit still stand on the sustainable path, or the right track. Equally important, in the middle-term, the ratio of government revenue to GDP is still needed to maintain in decreasing of the government debt from year to year. Generally, this study shows that fiscal condition in Indonesia after the crisis reflects sustainable and suitable to the assumption of Non-Ponzi Game.

scholarly journals QUARTERLY OUTLOOK ON MONETARY, BANKING, AND PAYMENT SYSTEM IN INDONESIA: QUARTER I, 2017

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 355-384
Author(s):  
Bambang Pramono ◽  
Syachman Perdymer ◽  
Handri Adiwilaga ◽  
Nurkholisoh Ibnu Aman ◽  
Rio Khasananda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Export Performance ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Global Trend ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

Globally, the economy continues to recover. The economic growth in AS increases supported by solid consumption and increase on non-residential investment, as well as the economy of Tiongkok, supported by private investment and better export performance. European economy also better off with stronger consumption and export, and the reduction of geopolitical risk post the presidential election in France. The economy in Japan also increases supported by stronger domestic and export demand. This global trend supports the growth in Indonesia that rises to the level of 5,01% (yoy), with the pillars of exportperformance, better global demand and commodity prices, as well as higher government expenditure – particularly on investment – and the household consumption. Spatially, the national growth was mainly from Java and Kalimantan due to their better export performance. Inflation increases slightly particularly related to price regulation implemented in early 2017. Spatially, inflation occurs in most area except Sumatera who recorded deflation. The balance of payment recorded a surplus arisen from financial and capital surplus of 7.9 milliard dolar AS. However, the current account recorded deficit due to the deficit of oil trade balance and primary income. The reserve increases to 121.8 miliar dolar AS, accompanied with stronger Rupiah with lower volatility relative to peer countries. Following the monetary ease on previous Quarter IV, 2016, the monetary transmission is better yet not optimal due to the prudent practice of the bank on allocating credit. The interest rate decreases reflected on daily PUAB O/N reduction by 7 point to 4.23%. The deposit rate also decreases as well as the lending rate with larger decrease. Lookingforward, the growth in 2017 will be higher than 2016 on the range of 5.0 – 5.4%, while inflation will be around the target of 4 + 1%. We need to anticipate the impact of Fed Fund Rate increase, the lower of FED balance, and the trade and fiscal US policy, as well as the geopolitical dynamics across regions particularly in Korean Bay. Bank Indonesia will keep strengthening his policy mix and macroprudential, and his coordination with the government to ensure the inflation control, greater stimulus for growth, and the implementation of structural reform run on the right track, and hence preserve the sustainable economic development. 

scholarly journals Model Pertumbuhan Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Subhan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Literature Study ◽  
First Order ◽  
Expenditure Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Linear Differential ◽  
The Interest Rate

The Government of Indonesia do external debt because government expenditure is greater than his revenue. External debt of Indonesia increas every year. To see its growth, it can be done with make a model of Indonesia’s external debt. This research is literature study. The model of the growth of Indonesia’s external debt in form of linear differential equations of first order that the solution can be determined. From the analysis results, Indonesia’s external debt affected by the interest rate, the expenditure rate, the tax revenue rate and non-tax revenue rate.

Tracking the growth of government securities investing in early modern England and Wales

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-114
Author(s):  
Carole Shammas
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Trading Company ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Private Loans

Interest in the growth of tradeable securities in early modern Britain, especially its relationship to economic development and the funding of government debt, has centered mainly on the borrower – whether it be trading company, industrial enterprise, or the state. This article directs attention to the investor, using Charity Commission Reports for England and Wales that document a dramatic mid-eighteenth-century shift by donors and trustees from investments in real estate and rent charges to perpetual government annuities, mainly 3 percent Consols. The heavy investment in this public debt product is what ultimately prompted the creation of the London Stock Exchange in 1801.In analyzing this shift, which occurred among the propertied in all regions of the nation, not just the metropolis or among corporate entities and the mercantile community, I consider both what made the annuities increasingly attractive for charitable trusts and the alternatives – real estate and private loans secured by mortgage or other means – more problematic. Legal changes, I argue, played a role in the transformation, especially the Charitable Uses Act of 1736, which made charitable devises of real estate very difficult and probably resulted in reduced investment in human capital and less wealth redistribution. Regions varied, however, in the degree to which they switched from real estate in the latter part of the eighteenth century; they also differed in the extent to which the switch resulted in more gifts of interest-bearing loans as well.Admittedly, the changes documented in this article concern only one type of depository for assets, charitable trusts. The appeal of these annuities, however, could extend to investments needed for other purposes such as postmortem payments to dependents. Moreover, the fall-off in demand for real estate in trusts correlates with GDP estimates showing a steady decline in income from real assets after 1755 and what some have noted in this period as a puzzle – the lack of an increased rate of return on rents and private loans at a time of robust investment in government debt. Most importantly, though, the transition demonstrates the ability of the government to induce a broad spectrum of the propertied population to invest in securities, if the vehicle they offered had the right characteristics, which were not necessarily highest yield or liquidity without loss in value.

The Effect of Copper Price Shock on the Relationship between Government Revenue and Expenditure: Testing the Fiscal Stability Law of Mongolia

2020 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Ariungerel Bayarsaikhan
Keyword(s):  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Copper Price ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
Strong Causality ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Effect Of Copper ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Auto Regression

This study empirically investigates the relationship between government revenue, government expenditure and the copper price in Mongolia, a resource abundant country. Using quarterly data of government revenue, expenditure and international copper price from 2000 to 2015, the results of auto regression (VAR) show that there is a strong causality from revenue to expenditure, while increase in expenditure, most likely, is not accompanied by rises in revenue. This result is consistent with the revenue-spent hypothesis. Moreover, the result also indicates that copper price shock increases revenue, but decreases expenditure. This finding supports the assumption that the Mongolian government follows its Fiscal Stability Law, a strategy that intends to maintain the stability and sustainability of the government budget.

scholarly journals An Economic Analysis of Government Revenue and Expenditure in Nepal

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 51-62
Author(s):  
Krishna Raj Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Economic Literature ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Percent Contribution ◽  
The Government

 The government revenue and expenditure are two key words frequently discussed in economic literature. In the context of Nepal both are increasing but increase in expenditure is rapid than the increase in revenue. Government expenditure if not matched with government income, it may have accompanied with economic evils. Revenue collection if not increased or managed in time, the amount of public debt will increase more rapidly in the future. In this connection, the volume of expenditure is increasing year after year due to the increased role of government in the economy. Revenue mobilization in fiscal year 2012/13 and 2013/14 hovered around 21 percent while that in FY 2014/15 was just 13.8 percent. Contribution of revenue to the total income in FY 2011/12 had remained at 84.85 percent while it grew to 88.65 percent, 89.86 percent and 90.11 percent respectively in the fiscal years from 2012/13 2013/14, and 2014/15 respectively. Hence the volume of public expenditure is increasing rapidly year after year. In FY2012/13 increase in public expenditure was 5.74 percent per annum which reached to 22.18 per annum in year 2014/15.

scholarly journals Impact of Fiscal Deficit and Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Najia Shakir ◽  
Sami Ullah ◽  
Salim Ullah Khan ◽  
Muhammad Qasim
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

The current study was conducted in the year 2014 in Pakistan to investigate the impact of fiscal deficit and government debt on the interest rate.  Data on selected macroeconomic variables like fiscal deficit, government debt, GDP per capita, money supply and volume of trade etc. from the year 1990 to 2012.  The study also has tried to find out that how the interest rate in the country is affected by the government debt and fiscal deficit. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was run to address the stationary issue in the data, and then Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model test was run to check the relationship among the variables. Two models were set in the study. In the first model, the relationship of GDP per capita, money supply, total debt servicing and volume of trade showed a significant relationship with the fiscal deficit, while in the second model the relationship of inflation, fiscal deficit, money supply, government debt and public debt showed a significant relationship with the interest rate. Policy makers are advised to focus on the increase of DGP/Capita and export volume. In order to sustain the rate of inflation, the government may regulate the money supply and public borrowing.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability and Optimal Level of Debt in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 282-292
Author(s):  
Sehrish Haleem ◽  
Awais Khan ◽  
Malik Adeel Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

Through the current study it’s been tried to discuss that how fiscal sustainability is impacted by the debt which is taken by countries in order to push their economy towards prosperity and growth in Pakistan. Because the economy is considering vulnerable in terms of Public debt due to huge fiscal deficit in the economy. The ARDL approach is being applied by taking GDP as dependent variable while public debt, total revenues, government expenditures and interest rate are been taken as independent variable. The findings of the study suggested that there is strong and significant relationship exist between focused variables. Public debt is negatively associated with GDP in both short run and long run, while government expenditure give positive and significant relationship with GDP and interestingly total revenue give negative significant relationship in long run that supported the argument that the high revenues in developing nations inversely affects the investment that is pillar of GDP, so it adversely affected. The interest rate is positively significant in long run but in short run its negatively related with GDP because it affects cost of capital. The findings of study attract the attention of policy makers that we need either debt reduction strategies or either to minimize the gap between public revenues and public expenditures to promote sustain economic growth in the economy.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH BELANJA PEMERINTAH, TENAGA KERJA, DAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI REGIONAL PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR TAHUN 2010-2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Avicenna S Hidayat ◽  
Frederic Winston Nalle
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Regional Economic Growth ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Regional Product

Regional economic growth is expressed in the Gross Domestic Regional Product is a good indicator in analyzing the economic conditions of a region. East Java is a province with high regional economic growth. This is supported by adequate government spending, labor, and local revenue. In terms of government expenditure that always experienced increase, indicating more activities financed by the government budget so that the expected multiplier effect is also greater. On the other side of the labor force, East Java has great potential, 19, 36 million people by 2015. Finally, in terms of Original Local Government Revenue, in 2015 the percentage of realization of Original Local Government Revenue East Java is even able to exceed the percentage of realization of state revenues derived from taxes. This study aims to determine the effect of government spending, labor, and Original Local Government Revenue  on regional economic growth in 38 districts / cities in the Province of East Java period 2010-2015. Using panel data analysis, it was found that government spending, labor, and Original Local Government Revenue variables were positively and significantly influenced regional economic growth.

scholarly journals Indonesian government’s primary balance and debt

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-152
Author(s):  
Muhammad Salahudin Al Ayyubi ◽  
Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Revenue Growth ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to determine the Indonesian fiscal sustainability condition by analyzing the impact of government debt on primary balance for the 1980-2018 period. Accordingly, we analyze the research data by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results show that government debt has a significant and positive effect on primary balance, likely because the government intends to stimulate the economy and boost tax revenues by keeping debt interest rates low. Therefore, based on Bohn’s condition, Indonesia exhibits sustainable fiscal policies. However, in the short run,  government debt negatively affects primary balance due to several factors, such as suboptimal tax efforts and revenue growth, unproductive use of debts, and relatively low capital expenditures. In sum, our research results recommend that the Indonesian government considers various policies that likely offset increased debts, such as intensifying and extending tax efforts to increase tax revenues and increase government spending in various productive sectors.

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