Modelling the Spread of Covid-19 in a Typical Oil and Gas Facility Setting

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emeka Okafor ◽  
Brad Bass
Keyword(s):  
Autonomous Agents ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Physical Isolation ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
Complex Organization

Abstract The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in a typical oil and gas facility setting, the health of employees, their families and their communities, is of real concern to the industry. In this work, a suitable predictive, agent-based model is used to predict the spread of COVID-19 in different settings as well as to evaluate strategies to block the spread. The agent-based modelling work is based on the simulation platform, Complex Organization and Bifurcation Within Environmental Bounds, or COBWEB. COBWEB simulates how a system of autonomous agents adapts to variation and sudden changes in the resource base or other features of their environment. Previous COBWEB simulation results illustrate that the tool is useful for predicting the evolution of COVID-19 spread and the effectiveness of various preventive actions including self-isolation of symptomatic people, social/physical distancing, effective PPE use, and ‘shielding’ (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in such a setting, in particular by shifting the distribution of risk severity towards ineffective PPE use, self-isolation and poor social distancing, which expectedly shows upward trend of the spread of the COVID-19. Ultimately, governments and industry can apply the predicted trends, as well as apply the model to specific settings, to make more informed decisions on the additional measures and preventative strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Carl A. B. Pearson ◽  
Nicholas G. Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
High Uptake ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Physical Isolation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods. Methods We used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing and ‘shielding’ (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio. We also present sensitivity analyses for key model parameters subject to uncertainty. Results We predicted median symptomatic attack rates over the first 12 months of 23% (Niger) to 42% (Mauritius), peaking at 2–4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Mitigation strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand and mortality by around 50%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature, and assumptions on transmissibility, infectiousness of asymptomatic cases and risk of severe disease or death by age. Conclusions In African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding could achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.

scholarly journals Response strategies for COVID-19 epidemics in African settings: a mathematical modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
Christopher I Jarvis ◽  
Carl A B Pearson ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
Timothy W Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
High Uptake ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Response Strategies ◽  
Physical Isolation ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe health impact of COVID-19 may differ in African settings as compared to countries in Europe or China due to demographic, epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic factors. We evaluated strategies to reduce SARS-CoV-2 burden in African countries, so as to support decisions that balance minimising mortality, protecting health services and safeguarding livelihoods.MethodsWe used a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered mathematical model, stratified by age, to predict the evolution of COVID-19 epidemics in three countries representing a range of age distributions in Africa (from oldest to youngest average age: Mauritius, Nigeria and Niger), under various effectiveness assumptions for combinations of different non-pharmaceutical interventions: self-isolation of symptomatic people, physical distancing, and ‘shielding’ (physical isolation) of the high-risk population. We adapted model parameters to better represent uncertainty about what might be expected in African populations, in particular by shifting the distribution of severity risk towards younger ages and increasing the case-fatality ratio.ResultsWe predicted median clinical attack rates over the first 12 months of 17% (Niger) to 39% (Mauritius), peaking at 2–4 months, if epidemics were unmitigated. Self-isolation while symptomatic had a maximum impact of about 30% on reducing severe cases, while the impact of physical distancing varied widely depending on percent contact reduction and R0. The effect of shielding high-risk people, e.g. by rehousing them in physical isolation, was sensitive mainly to residual contact with low-risk people, and to a lesser extent to contact among shielded individuals. Response strategies incorporating self-isolation of symptomatic individuals, moderate physical distancing and high uptake of shielding reduced predicted peak bed demand by 46% to 54% and mortality by 60% to 75%. Lockdowns delayed epidemics by about 3 months. Estimates were sensitive to differences in age-specific social mixing patterns, as published in the literature.DiscussionIn African settings, as elsewhere, current evidence suggests large COVID-19 epidemics are expected. However, African countries have fewer means to suppress transmission and manage cases. We found that self-isolation of symptomatic persons and general physical distancing are unlikely to avert very large epidemics, unless distancing takes the form of stringent lockdown measures. However, both interventions help to mitigate the epidemic. Shielding of high-risk individuals can reduce health service demand and, even more markedly, mortality if it features high uptake and low contact of shielded and unshielded people, with no increase in contact among shielded people. Strategies combining self-isolation, moderate physical distancing and shielding will probably achieve substantial reductions in mortality in African countries. Temporary lockdowns, where socioeconomically acceptable, can help gain crucial time for planning and expanding health service capacity.

Dependence on Extractive Industries in Lower-income Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Roe ◽  
Samantha Dodd
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Extractive Industries ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Current Dependence ◽  
Lower Income Countries ◽  
Development Prospects ◽  
Low And Middle Income

This chapter synthesizes statistical information evidencing the proposition that extractive industries are of great significance in many low- and middle-income developing economies, and so to their development prospects. It examines the scale of the current dependence of low- and middle-income economies on both types of extractive resources: metals, and oil and gas. The chapter also assesses how country levels of dependence have changed in the past twenty years, showing that there has been a clear upward trend based on exports. The chapter outlines how the upward trend has continued in many countries despite the recent commodity price collapse, and assesses some of the consequences of that collapse.

scholarly journals Analysis of Cooperative Perception in Ant Traffic and Its Effects on Transportation System by Using a Congestion-Free Ant-Trail Model

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 2393
Author(s):  
Prafull Kasture ◽  
Hidekazu Nishimura
Keyword(s):  
Average Velocity ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Mathematical Representations ◽  
Traffic Conditions ◽  
Traffic Jams ◽  
Ant Trail

We investigated agent-based model simulations that mimic an ant transportation system to analyze the cooperative perception and communication in the system. On a trail, ants use cooperative perception through chemotaxis to maintain a constant average velocity irrespective of their density, thereby avoiding traffic jams. Using model simulations and approximate mathematical representations, we analyzed various aspects of the communication system and their effects on cooperative perception in ant traffic. Based on the analysis, insights about the cooperative perception of ants which facilitate decentralized self-organization is presented. We also present values of communication-parameters in ant traffic, where the system conveys traffic conditions to individual ants, which ants use to self-organize and avoid traffic-jams. The mathematical analysis also verifies our findings and provides a better understanding of various model parameters leading to model improvements.

scholarly journals A Literature Review of Hybrid System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling in a Produced Water Management Context

Modelling ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-239
Author(s):  
Saeed P. Langarudi ◽  
Robert P. Sabie ◽  
Babak Bahaddin ◽  
Alexander G. Fernald
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Produced Water ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Hybrid Modeling ◽  
Agent Based

This paper explores the possibility and plausibility of developing a hybrid simulation method combining agent-based (AB) and system dynamics (SD) modeling to address the case study of produced water management (PWM). In southeastern New Mexico, the oil and gas industry generates large volumes of produced water, while at the same time, freshwater resources are scarce. Single-method models are unable to capture the dynamic impacts of PWM on the water budget at both the local and regional levels, hence the need for a more complex hybrid approach. We used the literature, information characterizing produced water in New Mexico, and our preliminary interviews with subject matter experts to develop this framework. We then conducted a systematic literature review to summarize state-of-the-art of hybrid modeling methodologies and techniques. Our research revealed that there is a small but growing volume of hybrid modeling research that could provide some foundational support for modelers interested in hybrid modeling approaches for complex natural resource management issues. We categorized these efforts into four classes based on their approaches to hybrid modeling. It appears that, among these classes, PWM requires the most sophisticated approach, indicating that PWM modelers will need to face serious challenges and break new ground in this realm.

Alcohol and Primary Prevention in Scotland and Sweden

1995 ◽  
Vol 12 (1_suppl) ◽  
pp. 31-60
Author(s):  
Håkan Leifman
Keyword(s):  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Primary Alcohol ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Alcohol Prevention ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Alcohol Control ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
Private Profit ◽  
Temperance Movements ◽  
Restrictive Legislation

This study compares primary alcohol prevention in Scotland and Sweden and the effectiveness of preventive actions with special reference to developments from the mid- or late 1970s when alcohol consumption peaked in both countries and when changes were made in their alcohol policies. A short historical overview shows many similarities between the countries, e.g. strong prohibition-oriented temperance movements, a history of alcohol (spirits) abuse and restrictive legislation. A major difference is the much more dominating role of private profit motives in Scottish alcohol trade. During the last 15-20 years, the two countries have chosen different strategies to prevent alcohol-related problems. Sweden has put heavy emphasis on restricting the availability of alcohol but also invested substantially in information, whereas Scotland has concentrated on the latter. A comparison of the trends during the last 15-20 years suggests that whereas Swedish alcohol control reduced the level of alcohol consumption and related problems in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Scottish did not, even though the upward trend was broken for most indicators. The drinking sensible message has not been powerful enough to reduce the number of non-sensible drinkers. In fact, a continuing upward trend of liver cirrhosis deaths in Scotland, especially for women, may suggest the opposite. The study also shows that, despite rather stable overall consumption for the last 10 years, the specific alcohol-related problem of drinking and driving has been decreasing in both countries. This indicates that even if consumption increases in the future, as is likely in Sweden due to current changes in alcohol control policy, drinking in specific contexts may still be preventable.

ACHIMOV REGIONAL MODEL AS A BUSINESS TOOL FOR FORMING A PORTFOLIO OF NEW OPTIONS FOR GEOLOGICAL EXPLORATION IN WESTERN SIBERIA

2020 ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
A.A. Timirgalin ◽  
M.G. Butorina ◽  
N.O. Novikov ◽  
G.V. Volkov ◽  
I.R. Mukminov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Western Siberia ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Direct Analysis ◽  
Regional Assessment ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Poor Knowledge ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Gas Potential ◽  
Data Generalization

The resource base of Western Siberia needs to be replenished to maintain the current development indicators. The reserves associated with the classic structural traps were diagnosed and mapped for the main horizons in Western Siberia. Replenishment of the resource base at the expense of such reserves is ineffective due to the fact that undiscovered traps of these types are thin, or lie at great depths, which ultimately negatively affects the quality of the resource base and the economic efficiency of their involvement in development. The driver of the growth and replenishment of the resource base under current conditions is the Achimov deposits, which are ubiquitous in this area at depths of 2500–3500 m and are genetically deep-water deposits of fans. The advantage of involving these deposits in development is often associated with the confinement to existing assets, where production is carried out from above and below-lying geological objects, the complexity is associated with the lithological type of traps, which is not diagnosed by direct analysis of seismic materials, as well as the extremely poor knowledge of the deposits over the area. Considering that the variability of properties over the area is a distinctive feature of Achimov deposits, the factor of poor knowledge by drilling significantly complicates the understanding of the potential of the deposits. In order to identify and assess the most promising areas for involvement in the development of the Achimov deposits, in PJSC Gazprom Neft the work “Regional assessment and zonal study of the prospects for oil and gas potential of the Achimov formation in the Western Siberia” was carried out. The goal and objectives is to form a reliable tool for searching and forecasting potential options using the generated regional maps of criteria (various characteristic properties and their combinations) built on the basis of data generalization throughout Western Siberia.

Retrospective Analysis of Geological Exploration 2010 - 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Mostovoy ◽  
Ildar Safarov ◽  
Evgeniy Tumanov ◽  
Maria Zaytseva ◽  
Maksim Aksenov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The Other ◽  
Geological Exploration ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Success Stories ◽  
Future Production ◽  
Geological Complexity ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies ◽  
Exploration Activity

Abstract Oil and gas companies’ future production profile is shaped by their exploration strategy and resource base development. Gazprom Neft's production profile will include 40% of current exploration projects by 2030. Geological exploration, on the other hand, is a high-risk business because it involves a lot of uncertainty due to the geological complexity of the targets being explored, as well as a lot of risky capital. Taking these factors into account, the Company will need to expand its exploration function as well as its approaches to managing exploration projects in order to meet its lofty aims. To determine the key areas of growth and a strategy for the exploration function development in the coming years, it was decided to first analyze the geological exploration activity in the Company in 2010 – 2020 period. The knowledge of achievements, success stories, and development areas is the fulcrum for future victories. Therefore, retrospective analysis is an important tool for the development of any system of activity - individual, organization, or state.

Mineral resources of the Vorkuta region and the prospects of their development

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
S.K. Kuznetsov ◽  
◽  
I.N. Burtsev ◽  
M.B. Tarbaev ◽  
N.N. Timonina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mineral Resource ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Komi Republic ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Western Slope ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Coking Coal ◽  
Coal Deposits

The analysis of the state and prospects for the development of the mineral resource base of the Vorkuta region of the Komi Republic, belonging to the Arctic zone, was carried out. It is shown that the coking coal deposits of the Pechora basin, the development of which is the basis for the existence of the city of Vorkuta, were and still are the most impor-tant ones. The reserves of coking coal are significant, however, the supply of them to operating mining enterprises is becoming more and more limited. To maintain and develop coal mining, it is necessary to build new mines. Along with the coal deposits, the Vorkuta region is of great interest in relation to other minerals. In the Kosyu-Rogovsk and Koro-taikha depressions, there are potential oil and gas-bearing structures, on the western slope of the Polar Urals – barite deposits, gold, chromium and copper occurrences, deserving further geological study and prospecting works. For a more complete disclosure and development of the mineral resource potential of the Vorkuta region, the extension of transport infrastructure is of great importance. The implementation of plans for the construction of railways, access to the Northern Sea Route, can contribute, in particular, to increasing the volume of coal production and wider supplies of coal using sea transport, and raising the investment attractiveness of the Arctic territories.

scholarly journals A strategy learning model for autonomous agents based on classification

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bartłomiej Śnieżyński
Keyword(s):  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Autonomous Agents ◽  
Good Alternative ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
Complex Environments ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Proposed Model

AbstractIn this paper we propose a strategy learning model for autonomous agents based on classification. In the literature, the most commonly used learning method in agent-based systems is reinforcement learning. In our opinion, classification can be considered a good alternative. This type of supervised learning can be used to generate a classifier that allows the agent to choose an appropriate action for execution. Experimental results show that this model can be successfully applied for strategy generation even if rewards are delayed. We compare the efficiency of the proposed model and reinforcement learning using the farmer-pest domain and configurations of various complexity. In complex environments, supervised learning can improve the performance of agents much faster that reinforcement learning. If an appropriate knowledge representation is used, the learned knowledge may be analyzed by humans, which allows tracking the learning process

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