scholarly journals A Novel Method for Identifying a Parsimonious and Accurate Predictive Model for Multiple Clinical Outcomes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ledif Grisell Diaz-Ramirez ◽  
Sei J. Lee ◽  
Alexander K. Smith ◽  
Siqi Gan ◽  
Walter John Boscardin
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Nursing Home Admission ◽  
Multiple Outcomes ◽  
Intersection Method ◽  
Case Study Data

Abstract Background and Objective: Most methods for developing clinical prognostic models focus on identifying parsimonious and accurate models to predict a single outcome; however, patients and providers often want to predict multiple outcomes simultaneously. As an example, for older adults one is often interested in predicting nursing home admission as well as mortality. We propose and evaluate a novel predictor-selection computing method for multiple outcomes and provide the code for its implementation.Methods: Our proposed algorithm selected the best subset of common predictors based on the minimum average normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) across outcomes: the Best Average BIC (baBIC) method. We compared the predictive accuracy (Harrell’s C-statistic) and parsimony (number of predictors) of the model obtained using the baBIC method with: 1) a subset of common predictors obtained from the union of optimal models for each outcome (Union method), 2) a subset obtained from the intersection of optimal models for each outcome (Intersection method), and 3) a model with no variable selection (Full method). We used a case-study data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to demonstrate our method and conducted a simulation study to investigate performance.Results: In the case-study data and simulations, the average Harrell’s C-statistics across outcomes of the models obtained with the baBIC and Union methods were comparable. Despite the similar discrimination, the baBIC method produced more parsimonious models than the Union method. In contrast, the models selected with the Intersection method were the most parsimonious, but with worst predictive accuracy, and the opposite was true in the Full method. In the simulations, the baBIC method performed well by identifying many of the predictors selected in the baBIC model of the case-study data most of the time and excluding those not selected in the majority of the simulations.Conclusions: Our method identified a common subset of variables to predict multiple clinical outcomes with superior balance between parsimony and predictive accuracy to current methods.

scholarly journals A Novel Method for Identifying a Parsimonious and Accurate Predictive Model for Multiple Clinical Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ledif Grisell Diaz-Ramirez ◽  
Sei J. Lee ◽  
Alexander K. Smith ◽  
Siqi Gan ◽  
Walter John Boscardin
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Nursing Home Admission ◽  
Multiple Outcomes ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Union Model ◽  
Comparable Accuracy ◽  
Novel Method

Abstract Background: Most methods for developing clinical prognostic models focus on identifying parsimonious and accurate models to predict a single outcome; however, patients and providers often want to predict multiple outcomes simultaneously. For example, older adults are often interested in predicting nursing home admission as well as mortality. We propose and evaluate a novel predictor selection method for multiple outcomes.Methods: Our proposed method selected the best subset of common predictors based on the minimum average normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) across outcomes: the Best Average BIC (baBIC) model. We compared the predictive accuracy (Harrell’s C-statistic) and parsimony (number of predictors) of the baBIC model with a subset of common predictors obtained from the union of optimal models for each outcome (Union model). We used example data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to demonstrate our method and conducted a simulation study to investigate performance considering correlated and uncorrelated outcomes.Results: In the example data, the average Harrell’s C-statistics across outcomes of the baBIC and Union models were comparable (0.657 vs. 0.662 respectively). Despite the similar discrimination, the baBIC model was more parsimonious than the Union model (15 vs. 23 predictors respectively). Likewise, in the simulations with correlated outcomes, the mean C-statistic across outcomes of the baBIC and Union models were the same after rounding: 0.650, and the baBIC model had an average number of predictors of 13.8 (95% CI: 13.7, 13.9) compared with 21.6 (95% CI: 21.5, 21.7) in the Union model. In the simulations, the baBIC method performed well by identifying on average the same predictors as in the example data 90.4% times for correlated outcomes.Conclusions: Our method identified a common subset of variables to predict multiple clinical outcomes with superior parsimony and comparable accuracy to current methods.

scholarly journals A Novel Method for Identifying a Parsimonious and Accurate Predictive Model for Multiple Clinical Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ledif Grisell Diaz-Ramirez ◽  
Sei J. Lee ◽  
Alexander K. Smith ◽  
Siqi Gan ◽  
Walter John Boscardin
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Nursing Home Admission ◽  
Multiple Outcomes ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Union Model ◽  
Comparable Accuracy ◽  
Novel Method

Abstract Background: Most methods for developing clinical prognostic models focus on identifying parsimonious and accurate models to predict a single outcome; however, patients and providers often want to predict multiple outcomes simultaneously. For example, older adults are often interested in predicting nursing home admission as well as mortality. We propose and evaluate a novel predictor selection method for multiple outcomes.Methods: Our proposed method selected the best subset of common predictors based on the minimum average normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) across outcomes: the Best Average BIC (baBIC) model. We compared the predictive accuracy (Harrell’s C-statistic) and parsimony (number of predictors) of the baBIC model with a subset of common predictors obtained from the union of optimal models for each outcome (Union model). We used example data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to demonstrate our method and conducted a simulation study to investigate performance considering correlated and uncorrelated outcomes.Results: In the example data, the average Harrell’s C-statistics across outcomes of the baBIC and Union models were comparable (0.657 vs. 0.662 respectively). Despite the similar discrimination, the baBIC model was more parsimonious than the Union model (15 vs. 23 predictors respectively). Likewise, in two simulation scenarios with correlated and uncorrelated outcomes, the mean C-statistic across outcomes of the baBIC and Union models were very similar, and the baBIC model had on average fewer predictors. In the simulations, the baBIC method performed well by identifying the correct predictors most of the time and excluding the incorrect predictors in the majority of the simulations.Conclusions: Our method identified a common subset of variables to predict multiple clinical outcomes with superior parsimony and comparable accuracy to current methods.

scholarly journals Lifetime Benefit Analysis of Intelligent Maintenance: Simulation Modeling Approach and Industrial Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3487
Author(s):  
Helge Nordal ◽  
Idriss El-Thalji
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Opportunistic Maintenance ◽  
Maintenance Strategies ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Intelligent Maintenance ◽  
Diagnosis And Prognosis ◽  
Case Study Data

The introduction of Industry 4.0 is expected to revolutionize current maintenance practices by reaching new levels of predictive (detection, diagnosis, and prognosis processes) and prescriptive maintenance analytics. In general, the new maintenance paradigms (predictive and prescriptive) are often difficult to justify because of their multiple inherent trade-offs and hidden systems causalities. The prediction models, in the literature, can be considered as a “black box” that is missing the links between input data, analysis, and final predictions, which makes the industrial adaptability to such models almost impossible. It is also missing enable modeling deterioration based on loading, or considering technical specifications related to detection, diagnosis, and prognosis, which are all decisive for intelligent maintenance purposes. The purpose and scientific contribution of this paper is to present a novel simulation model that enables estimating the lifetime benefits of an industrial asset when an intelligent maintenance management system is utilized as mixed maintenance strategies and the predictive maintenance (PdM) is leveraged into opportunistic intervals. The multi-method simulation modeling approach combining agent-based modeling with system dynamics is applied with a purposefully selected case study to conceptualize and validate the simulation model. Three maintenance strategies (preventive, corrective, and intelligent) and five different scenarios (case study data, manipulated case study data, offshore and onshore reliability data handbook (OREDA) database, physics-based data, and hybrid) are modeled and simulated for a time period of 20 years (175,200 h). Intelligent maintenance is defined as PdM leveraged in opportunistic maintenance intervals. The results clearly demonstrate the possible lifetime benefits of implementing an intelligent maintenance system into the case study as it enhanced the operational availability by 0.268% and reduced corrective maintenance workload by 459 h or 11%. The multi-method simulation model leverages and shows the effect of the physics-based data (deterioration curves), loading profiles, and detection and prediction levels. It is concluded that implementing intelligent maintenance without an effective predictive horizon of the associated PdM and effective frequency of opportunistic maintenance intervals, does not guarantee the gain of its lifetime benefits. Moreover, the case study maintenance data shall be collected in a complete (no missing data) and more accurate manner (use hours instead of date only) and used to continuously upgrade the failure rates and maintenance times.

Brazilian labor reform and implications for nursing work: a case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheila Nascimento Pereira de Farias ◽  
Norma Valéria Dantas de Oliveira Souza ◽  
Karla Biancha Silva de Andrade ◽  
Thereza Christina Mó y Mó Loureiro Varella ◽  
Samira Silva Santos Soares ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Working Hours ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Labor Rights ◽  
Labor Reform ◽  
Descriptive Case Study ◽  
Regional Labor ◽  
Work Method ◽  
Case Study Data

Abstract Objective: to analyze the Brazilian labor reform repercussions and its implications for nursing work. Method: this is an exploratory-descriptive case study. Data were collected on the website of four Regional Labor Courts (in Brazil), taking into account the cases judged in first and second instance, involving nurses and aspects of labor rights that were linked to labor reform. Results: two cases were captured that dealt with: 1) lack of prior inspection for unhealthy work; 2) expansion of nurses’ working hours without overtime pay. These two situations were based on the labor reform, which confirms the process of loss of rights for nurses. Conclusion: implementing the new labor rules brought harm and had negative repercussions for nursing work, as it resulted in professionals’ loss of rights. In this treadmill, it is believed that the dissatisfaction of these workers will increase and may result in professional evasion.

Reduplication Revisited

2005 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harriet B. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Data ◽  
Treatment Approach ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Longitudinal Case Study ◽  
Phonological Processes ◽  
Monosyllabic Words ◽  
Lexical Items ◽  
Case Study Data

This case study considers the phonological forms of early lexical items produced by 1 normally developing boy, from 19 to 22 months of age, who began to produce all monosyllabic words as bisyllabic. In order to link this empirical data (the apparent creation of increased complexity) with universal tendencies (motivated by the reduction of complexity), the functions of reduplication were revisited. Phonological processes (i.e., reduplication and final consonant deletion) are viewed as repairs motivated by 2 interacting constraints (i.e., constraints on monosyllabic words and on word-final consonants). These longitudinal case study data provide further evidence for a relationship between final consonant deletion and reduplication. A possible treatment approach for similar patterns demonstrated clinically is recommended.

Environmental and Health Benefits of Utility-Based Cogeneration in Ontario, Canada

1994 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 363-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald R. Hart ◽  
Marc A. Rosen
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Cycle ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Fish Yield ◽  
Lost Work ◽  
Case Study Data

The potential environmental benefits of utility-based cogeneration are examined, using the energy system in Ontario, Canada, as a case study. Data are presented regarding fuel cycle emissions, environmental and health effects, and associated economic costs of the existing provincial energy system, as a basis for comparison to a more efficient energy system with utility production of useable steam and hot water. Estimates are presented of reductions in emissions, effects and environmental and health costs that could be achieved by the improved system. Costs associated with mortality, morbidity, lost work days, lost crop yield, lost fish yield and building damage are considered. The analysis suggests that utility cogeneration could reduce these costs by 10 to 45%, depending on the cogeneration scenario.

scholarly journals Demonetisation Impact over Banking Loans & Advances: A Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 51-64
Author(s):  
Narsaiah Neralla
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Banking Services ◽  
Legal Tender ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Government ◽  
Case Study Data

The demonetisation footstep by the Government of India twisted complicated influences in the economy. Complete sectors of the economy had faced and produced mixed sensation results over the decision of demonetisation. India’s financial services struggled with demonetisation; on the other hand demonetisation affects utmost over the banking sector because it is substantial influenced services to transform money circulation in an Indian economy. Eradicating components of currency notes from circulation in an economy is demonetisation. It is as the processes of components of money are denied the status of legal tender. Consequently, ceased currency notes will not be account as valid currency in an economy. The term ‘demonetization’ is an instrument to shrink Inflation, Black Money, Corruption and terror funding, this step discourages a cash dependent economy in India. Government of India drive towards demonetisation has given a strong push to the popularity of digital banking and made helps with the alternative arrangements of e-banking and e –wallet to trade and commerce. Exploring the demonetisation emergence in an economy and impact on banking services ecosystem dynamics, this study take an abductive approach anchored in over 4 years of case study data regarding. The present study foremost intention is to be analysing the demonetisation impact over banking loans and advances. In this regard the present study is to be examining the pre demonetisation and post demonetisation period.

scholarly journals Penerapan Perkuliahan Dengan Pendekatan Humanistik Pada Mata Kuliah Penelitian Pendidikan di Pgsd Bone

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-125
Author(s):  
Mustamir Mustamir
Keyword(s):  
Study Data ◽  
Case Study Data

Permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan kemampuan mahasiswa selalu menjadi topik yang memerlukan perhatian terus-menerus dari berbagai kalangan. Banyak penelitian yang telah dilakukan sebagai upaya meningkatkan kemampuan mahasiswa, namun sebagian besar masih berlandaskan pada pendekatan kognitif semata. Berdasarkan  kajian teoritis, teori belajar yang lebih banyak memberikan peluang untuk berkembangnya potensi mahasiswa secara optimal adalah teori belajar humanistik. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini ialah metode pre-eksperimen dengan desain one shoot case study. Data yang diambil dan diolah adalah data  kemampuan atau pemahaman mahasiswa yang beruoa nilai perolehan mahasiswa dari mengerjakan tugas dan tes. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kemampuan mahasiswa dalam perkuliahan ini berkisar pada nilai 4 atau nilai A dan nilai 3 atau nilai B. Secara keseluruhan, rata-rata kemampuan mahasiswa adalah 3,5 melebihi target, yaitu nilai 3. Semua mahasiswa terlihat aktif dan serius dalam mengikuti perkuliahan.

scholarly journals Optimasi Sistem Penjadwalan Dengan Implementasi Algoritma Welch Powell Pada Sistem Penjadwalan Customer Service Di Gerai Indosat Ooredoo Cabang Kuta

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-85
Author(s):  
L.Virginayoga Hignasari
Keyword(s):  
Customer Service ◽  
System Optimization ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Scheduling System ◽  
Service Scheduling ◽  
Customer Services ◽  
Selling Teams ◽  
Graph Form ◽  
Case Study Data

The purpose of this research was to solve the problems related to the optimization of the customer service scheduling system in Indosat Ooredoo Office Kuta Branch by implementing the concept of graph coloring, namely the application of the Welch Powell algorithm. This research was a case study. Data obtained from observations and interviews. The data analyzed is a pre-existing customer service scheduling system. The scheduling system obtained will be analyzed further by using Welch Powell's algorithm to solve problems related to the formation of mobile selling teams and its schedule. Before being analyzed using the Welch Powell algorithm, the scheduling system is represented in graph form. There was a Welch Powell algorithm that is 1) Sort the vertices of G in decreasing degrees; 2) Use one color to color the first node (which has the highest degree) and other vertices that do not match the first node; 3) Start again with the next highest degree node in the ordered list that has not been colored and repeat the process of node transfer using the second color. Based on the results of the analysis, the number of existing customer services can be formed into three teams with alternating mobile selling schedules in one week. This is more efficient than the previous scheduling system that determined the mobile selling team based on the employee's work shift. Based on this, the implementation of the Welch Powell algorithm can solve the problem of scheduling system optimization in the Indosat Ooredoo Customer Service Division of the Kuta Branch theoretically.

scholarly journals E-Democracy from the Perspective of Local Elected Members

2011 ◽  
pp. 296-312
Author(s):  
Zahid Parvez
Keyword(s):  
Recent Literature ◽  
Structuration Theory ◽  
Research Direction ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Primary Case ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Democratic Culture ◽  
Case Study Data

Although efforts for developing e-democracy have been underway for over a decade, recent literature indicates that its uptake by citizens and Elected Members (EMs) is still very low. This paper explores the underlying reasons for why this is so from the perspective of local EMs in the context of UK local authorities. It draws on findings reported in earlier works supplemented with primary case study data. Findings are interpreted through the lens of Giddens structuration theory, which assists in drawing out issues related to three dimensions of human agency: communication of meaning, exercising power and sanctioning behaviour. The paper abstracts categories of agency from the findings and uses these to formulate eight propositions for creating an e-friendly democratic culture and enhancing EMs uptake of e-democracy. These propositions provide an indication for future e-democracy research direction.

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