A Critical Analysis of Effect of Projected Temperature and Rainfall for Differential Sowing of Maize Cultivars Under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 Scenarios for Punjab

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shivani Kothiyal ◽  
Prabhjyot Kaur ◽  
Jatinder Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Agroclimatic Zone ◽  
Maize Cultivars ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Agroclimatic Zones

Abstract A simulation study was conducted for two cultivars of maize (PMH1 and PMH2) in four agroclimatic zones of Punjab state of India where climate change depicts a consistent rise in temperature and increased variability in amount and distribution of rainfall. The yield assessment was performed for four agroclimatic zones of Punjab comprising of seven locations because variability in temperature rise and rainfall existed from location to location. Corrected ensemble model weather data (temperature and rainfall) for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 was used as an input in the calibrated and validated CERES-Maize model and yield was simulated for a period of 70 years. The simulated yield for near as well as far-future was statistically assessed to understand the yield trend in Punjab under current dates of sowing and the results indicated a strong negative correlation between the yield and the weather parameters under the two scenarios at the considered four agroclimatic zones of Punjab. An increase in maximum and minimum temperature was observed ranging 0-4°C and 3-8°C, respectively at all the agroclimatic zones except Faridkot (zone V) where the increase in minimum temperature was observed by 0-3°C during the crop growth season while the rainfall variability ranged from 200-800mm under both the scenarios. At agroclimatic zone II and zone III similar results were obtained with higher yields at later dates of sowing and the rainfall at agroclimatic zone III was higher under RCP6.0 (300-600mm) while the yields for agroclimatic zone IV and V (Abohar) with rainfall variation of 270-450mm and 200-400mm, respectively showed no yield increment. Maize at Faridkot performed well with higher yields at early sowing dates. Among the two cultivars PMH1 showed more high yield years than PMH2 for most of the years. The yield under differential sowing dates showed the first fortnight of June and end June to be the best sowing dates for most of the locations as the yield for these dates were higher for most of the years. Thus, the study can be further applied to decide the future sowing window of maize for the agricultural state like Punjab.

Simulating phenology and yield response of canola to sowing date in Western Australia using the APSIM model

2002 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 1155 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Farré ◽  
M. J. Robertson ◽  
G. H. Walton ◽  
S. Asseng
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
3.0 T ◽  
Using Data

Canola is a relatively new crop in the Mediterranean environment of Western Australia and growers need information on crop management to maximise profitability. However, local information from field experiments is limited to a few seasons and its interpretation is hampered by seasonal rainfall variability. Under these circumstances, a simulation model can be a useful tool. The APSIM-Canola model was tested using data from Western Australian field experiments. These experiments included different locations, cultivars, and sowing dates. Flowering date was predicted by the model with a root mean squared deviation (RMSD) of 4.7 days. The reduction in the period from sowing to flowering with delay in sowing date was accurately reproduced by the model. Observed yields ranged from 0.1 to 3.2 t/ha and simulated yields from 0.4 to 3.0 t/ha. Yields were predicted with a RMSD of 0.3–0.4 t/ha. The yield reduction with delayed sowing date in the high, medium, and low rainfall region (3.2, 6.1, and 8.6% per week, respectively) was accurately simulated by the model (1.1, 6.7, and 10.3% per week, respectively). It is concluded that the APSIM-Canola model, together with long-term weather data, can be reliably used to quantify yield expectation for different cultivars, sowing dates, and locations in the grainbelt of Western Australia.

scholarly journals Crop yield prediction using CERES-Rice vs 4.5 model for the climate variability of different agroclimatic zone of south and north-west plane zone of Bihar (India)

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 539-552
Author(s):  
P.K. SINGH ◽  
K.K. SINGH ◽  
A.K. BAXLA ◽  
B. KUMAR ◽  
S.C. BHAN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
Rice Cultivar ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
North West ◽  
Agroclimatic Zone ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Crop Growth Models

CERES-rice models are being validated and tested across the world and vigorously used in agrotechnology transfer. Crop growth models have been considered as potential tools for simulating growth and yield of crops. Hence, DSSAT v 4.5/ CERES-Rice (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer / Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis) was applied to validate the Rice productivity from Bihar State in India. Long term historical weather data (1980-2011) and (1985-2011) from South and North West Alluvial plane zones of Bihar was used for yield analysis. Genetic coefficients required for running the CERES-Rice vs 4.5 model were derived and the performance of the model was tested under the climate variability conditions experienced by these two agroclimatic zones. Management combinations simulated were three transplanting dates (1st, 15th & 30th July) for rice cultivar Rmansuri under rainfed conditions.The results indicated that both the early and late sowing dates result in lower yields as compared to optimum sowing date of 15th July. The simulated phenology and yield were found to be in agreement with observed data suggesting that the calibrated model may be operationally used with routinely observed soil, crop management and weather parameters for Rice yield estimation from these two regions of Bihar.

scholarly journals Selection of Lentil (Lens culunaris L.) Lines Grown at Different Sowing Dates for Their Precocity and Their Agronomic Performance under Semi-arid Climate of Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Ouji ◽  
M. Mechri ◽  
S. Wassli ◽  
K. Shiv ◽  
M. Kharrat
Keyword(s):  
Arid Zone ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Short Cycle ◽  
Cropping Season ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Significant Yield ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Selection Of

Background: In Tunisia, water deficit and heat stress during the end of cycle are more frequent and causes significant yield losses. Selection of short cycle lines could be a good solution to escape the effect of heat and drought during the end of cycle. Furthermore, there is little published information on the effect of the sowing date on yield and its components in lentils. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the sowing date on yield and its components of some lentil lines. The best productive and early lines will be selected and therefore proposed for registration in the official catalog of plant varieties. The availability of these varieties to farmers could increase lentil production. Methods: Sixteen genotypes of lentil out of which 14 were advanced lines and 2 were checks varieties were used in this study. The field experiment was conducted during the 2017-2018 cropping season at Kef research station located in a semi-arid zone in north western Tunisia. Genotypes were sown on December 15th, 2017 and February, 7th, 2018. Seventeen agro-morphological parameters were recorded. Result: Based on agro-morphological analysis, lentil lines exhibited considerable genetic variability. Among the tested lines, L3 line seem to be the earliest lines. It showed high yield as well in timely and late sown dates. This line deserves more attention to develop short-cycle and high yielding variety.

scholarly journals Irrigation management strategies for winter wheat using AquaCrop model

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 106-113
Author(s):  
M.H. Ali ◽  
I. Abustan
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Irrigation Management ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Water Model ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Irrigation Frequency ◽  
Aquacrop Model ◽  
Daily Weather Data

Many regions of the world face the challenge to ensure high yield with limited water supply. This calls for utilization of available water in an efficient and sustainable manner. Quantitative models can assist in management decision and planning purposes. The FAO’s newly developed crop-water model, AquaCrop, which simulates yield in response to water, has been calibrated for winter wheat and subsequently used to simulate yield under different sowing dates, irrigation frequencies, and irrigation sequences using 10 years daily weather data. The simulation results suggest that “2 irrigation frequency” is the most water-efficient schedule for wheat under the prevailing climatic and soil conditions. The results also indicate decreasing yield trend under late sowing. The normal/recommended sequence of irrigation performed better than the seven-days shifting from the normal. The results will help to formulate irrigation management plan based on the resource availability (water, and land availability from previous crop).

scholarly journals Estimating the development of landrace and improved maize cultivars as a function of air temperature

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1737-1742
Author(s):  
Josana Andreia Langner ◽  
Nereu Augusto Streck ◽  
Genei Antonio Dalmago ◽  
Lia Rejane Silveira Reiniger ◽  
Angelica Durigon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Block Design ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
Maize Cultivars ◽  
Randomized Block Design ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Developmental Rates ◽  
Cardinal Temperatures ◽  
Santa Maria ◽  
Emergence Phase

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to determine the maximum development rates for the phases of emergence, vegetative and reproductive, and to test the performance of the Wang and Engel (WE) model for simulating the development of landrace and improved maize cultivars sown on different dates. Model calibration was with data collected from a field experiment with a sowing date on December 13, 2014, and the model was tested with independent data from experiments with five sowing dates (August 20 and November 4, 2013, February 3 and August 15, 2014, and January 7, 2015) in Santa Maria, RS. The experiment was a complete randomized block design with four replicates. The dates of emergence (EM), silking (R1), and physiological maturity (R6) of two landraces ('Cinquentinha' and 'Bico de ouro') and two improved maize cultivars ('BRS Planalto' and 'AS 1573PRO') were recorded. Maximum daily developmental rates varied among cultivars from 0.2400 to 0.3411 d-1 for the emergence phase, from 0.0213 to 0.0234 d-1 for the vegetative phase, and from 0.0254 to 0.0298 d-1 for the reproductive phase. The WE model adequately estimated the developmental stages of landraces and improved maize cultivars with a mean error of 3.7 days. The cardinal temperatures used in the WE model were appropriate to estimate the developmental stages of landraces and improved maize cultivars.

Proximate factors causing mast seeding in Fagus crenata: the effects of resource level and weather cues

2005 ◽  
Vol 83 (11) ◽  
pp. 1402-1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirokazu Kon ◽  
Takashi Noda ◽  
Kazuhiko Terazawa ◽  
Hiromasa Koyama ◽  
Michiyasu Yasaka
Keyword(s):  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Fagus Crenata ◽  
Mast Seeding ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Seed Crop ◽  
Proximate Factors ◽  
Resource Dynamics ◽  
Total Seed

To examine the proximate factors causing mast seeding in Fagus crenata Blume in Hokkaido, northern Japan, we analyzed a 13-year time series of seed production in relation to both previous reproduction and weather conditions. In an autocorrelation analysis we observed a significant negative correlation in 1-year time lags for the log-transformed total seed crop. This indicates that internal resource dynamics are important for mast seeding. A strong negative correlation was observed between the total seed crop and minimum temperature from late April to mid-May in the year preceding flowering. The critical minimum temperature from late April to mid-May for total seed crop at all five sites was about 1.0 °C higher than the 22-year (1979–2000) mean of the minimum temperatures, above which very few seeds were produced. These results show that a weather cue triggers the cessation of reproduction in F. crenata. Regression models that included reproduction in the previous year and minimum temperature explained 57.8%–83.1% of the total seed crop at the five study sites. Therefore, resource dynamics and weather cues are clearly involved in mast seeding in F. crenata.

Relationship of weather and plant factors to alfalfa bloat in autumn

1991 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 861-866 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. W. Hall ◽  
W. Majak
Keyword(s):  
Key Words ◽  
Total Nitrogen ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Dry Matter ◽  
Extreme Case ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Soluble Nitrogen ◽  
Acid Detergent Fiber ◽  
Relationship Of

The bloat status of cattle was recorded in the autumns of 6 yr when bloat occurred during the decade 1979–1988. Weather data were available for all 6 yr, plant dry matter, acid detergent fiber and plant chlorophyll for 3 yr and plant total nitrogen and soluble nitrogen for 4 yr. The percentages of dry matter and acid detergent fiber were lower and the concentrations of chlorophyll, total nitrogen and soluble nitrogen were higher on days when bloat occurred than when it did not. There was no difference in minimum temperature classified by bloat status on the same day, or in maximum temperature, hours of sunshine or precipitation classified by bloat status on the next day. Hours of sunshine and the temperature range were greater on days when bloat occurred. Bloat was observed after "killing frosts" of −2.2 °C in all years and in an extreme case after a daily minimum of −9.6 °C. Key words: Legume, bloat, alfalfa, cattle, climate

scholarly journals Responses of phenology, synchrony and fecundity of breeding by African ungulates to interannual variation in rainfall

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (8) ◽  
pp. 698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph O. Ogutu ◽  
Hans-Peter Piepho ◽  
Holly T. Dublin
Keyword(s):  
Reproductive Success ◽  
Interannual Variation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Gestation Length ◽  
Mating Period ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Timing Of Births ◽  
African Ungulates ◽  
High Flexibility ◽  
Savanna Ungulates

Context The timing and synchrony of births are important components of fitness among ungulates living in seasonal environments. Aims We investigated the effects of rainfall variation on interannual variation in the timing, synchrony and prolificity of births for six African ungulate species inhabiting an equatorial savanna with bimodal rainfall. Methods We analyse how seasonally and aseasonally breeding African savanna ungulates maintain reproductive success despite rainfall constraints, and adjust the phenology, synchrony and fecundity of their breeding to track interannual variation in rainfall. We use data on six ungulate species inhabiting the Masai Mara National Reserve (Mara) of Kenya to test five hypotheses concerning the influences of seasonality in resources, gestation length and the hider–follower strategy on the timing, synchrony and prolificity of calving. Key results Births were more synchronised for topi, warthog and zebra than for hartebeest, impala, and giraffe. Births occurred in most months, but tended to peak during the early rains when forage quality peaks for all species. The rainfall component exerting the strongest influence on timing of births varied with species. Gestation length, the hider–follower dichotomy, and hence predation, had apparently weak influences on birth synchrony. In drought years with nutritionally deficient forage, births were delayed, less synchronised and fewer. This portrayed protracted calving seasons, suppression of early conceptions, and delayed onset of births, calf losses, reproductive pauses or failures. However, in rainy years with sufficient forage, births peaked early, or were not delayed, and the synchronicity of calving increased for all species. This suggested early breeding by primiparous females; or higher fertility early in the mating period. The prolificity of calving increased with rainfall for topi and warthog but decreased for the remaining species. Conclusions Marked interannual variability in rainfall, plant phenology and forage sufficiency in tropical savannas impose strong constraints on ungulates, favouring flexible timing of births over strictly seasonal reproduction characteristic of temperate latitudes with predictable seasonal resource cues. Implications Despite high flexibility in their timing of births, widening rainfall variability expected to result from global warming could lower reproductive success of tropical ungulates by lowering their fecundity and survival prospects of their calves if droughts became more frequent and severe.

scholarly journals Improving crop production efficiency by optimizing the timing of field work

2020 ◽  
Vol 197 (6) ◽  
pp. 26-38
Author(s):  
N. Stepnyh ◽  
E. Nesterova ◽  
S. Gilev ◽  
A. Zargaryan
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Grain Crops ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Research Institute

Abstract. Violation of the optimal timing of field work and irrational structure of acreage leads to a decrease in crop yield. The purpose is to show ways to improve the efficiency of grain production due to earlier terms of wheat harvesting. The objects of the study were operational data on the timing of field work and the yield of grain crops in the agricultural sector of the Kurgan region and in the fields of the Kurgan research Institute, weather data. Common methods of comparative, statistical, factor, and correlation analyses were used. Results. It was found that the most favorable conditions for harvesting grain crops are formed in August. At the same time, as of September 1, 2019, 21 % of the area of grain crops was removed in the Kurgan region, and 71 % as of October 1. The yield of grain harvested in September was 5.7 t/ha below removed in August, loss of income – 6.2 thousand rubles/ha. Price for grain sold in September, is often lower than in August, and another minus 1.5 thousand rubles. The Early cleaning provide earlier crops. For more effective optimization of work terms, it is proposed to keep their records and analysis in the e-book of field history developed at the Kurgan research Institute. It was found that with minimal availability of agricultural machinery, the yield on fields in different hydrothermal conditions varied slightly due to the use of a wide range of sowing dates from May 2 to May 31 and the rational structure of varieties. About 10 % of crops under winter wheat allowed to start harvesting 2–3 weeks before spring and it is more profitable to sell grain. Agricultural producers are recommended to optimize the terms of harvesting spring wheat due to earlier sowing dates, taking into account the validity for each field and the introduction of winter wheat into circulation. The scientific novelty lies in the analysis of the conditions of sowing and harvesting operations in the economy that have developed over the past 5 years in the context of each field.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal influence of rainfall on crustal pore pressure based on seismic velocity monitoring 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rezkia Dewi Andajani ◽  
Takeshi Tsuji ◽  
Roel Snieder ◽  
Tatsunori Ikeda
Keyword(s):  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Seismic Velocity ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Diffusion Mechanism ◽  
Band Pass Filter ◽  
Earthquake Triggering ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Strong Negative Correlation ◽  
Pass Filter

Abstract Crustal pore pressure, which controls the activities of earthquakes and volcanoes, varies in response to rainfall. The status of pore pressure can be inferred from observed changes in seismic velocity. In this study, we investigate the response of crustal pore pressure to rainfall in southwestern Japan based on time series of seismic velocity derived from ambient noise seismic interferometry. To consider the heterogeneity of the area, rainfall and seismic velocity obtained at each location were directly compared. We used a band-pass filter to distinguish the rainfall variability from sea level and atmospheric pressure, and then calculated the cross-correlation between rainfall and variations in S-wave velocity (Vs). A mostly negative correlation between rainfall and Vs changes indicates groundwater recharge by rainfall, which increases pore pressure. The correlations differ between locations, where most of the observation stations with clear negative cross-correlations were located in areas of granite. On the other hand, we could not observe clear correlations in steep mountain areas, possibly because water flows through river without percolation. This finding suggests that geographical features contribute to the imprint of rainfall on deep formation pore pressure. We further modelled pore pressure change due to rainfall based on diffusion mechanism. A strong negative correlation between pore pressure estimated from rainfall and Vs indicates that the Vs variations are triggered by pore pressure diffusion in the deep formation. Our modelling results show a spatial variation of diffusion parameter which controls the pore pressure in deep formation. By linking the variations in seismic velocity and crustal pore pressure spatially, this study shows that seismic monitoring may be useful in evaluating earthquake triggering processes or volcanic activity.

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