scholarly journals Epidemic Big Bang: development and quarantine measures for Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Trigger ◽  
Eugeny Czerniawski
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Data ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
Good Correspondence ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
Infinite Population ◽  
Duration Of Disease ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Day By Day

Abstract New discrete approximation for the infection spread is constructed based on COVID-19 epidemic data. We consider the epidemic as dependent upon four key parameters: the size of population involved, the mean number of dangerous contacts of one infected person per day, the probability to transmit infection due to such contact and the mean duration of disease. In the simplest case of free epidemic in an infinite population, the number of infected rises exponentially day by day. Here we show the model for epidemic process in a closed population, constrained by isolation, treatment and so on. The four parameters introduced here have the clear sense and are in association with the well-known concept of reproduction number in the continuous susceptible-infected-susceptible model. We derive these parameters from the adequate statistical data. On this basis, we also found the corresponding basic reproduction number mentioned above. Our approach allows evaluating the influence of quarantine measures on free pandemic process. We found a good correspondence of the theory and reliable statistical data. The model is quite flexible and it can be expanded for situations that are more complex.

scholarly journals Epidemic transmission with quarantine measures: application to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.A. Trigger ◽  
E.B. Czerniawski ◽  
A.M. Ignatov
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Delay Differential Equations ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Good Correspondence ◽  
Closed Population ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Delay Differential ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Infection Spread

Equations for infection spread in a closed population are found in discrete approximation, corresponding to the published statistical data, and in continuous time in the form of delay differential equations. We consider the epidemic as dependent upon four key parameters: the size of population involved, the mean number of dangerous contacts of one infected person per day, the probability to transmit infection due to such contact and the mean duration of disease. In the simplest case of free-running epidemic in an infinite population, the number of infected rises exponentially day by day. Here we show the model for epidemic process in a closed population, constrained by isolation, treatment and so on. The four parameters introduced here have the clear sense and are in association with the well-known concept of reproduction number in the continuous susceptible– infectious–removed, susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed (SIR, SEIR) models. We derive the initial rate of infection spread from the published statistical data for the initial stage of epidemic, when the quarantine measures were absent. On this basis, we can found the corresponding basic reproduction number mentioned above. Our approach allows evaluating the influence of quarantine measures on free pandemic process that leads to the time-dependent rate of infection and suppression of infection. We found a good correspondence of the theory and reliable statistical data. The initially formulated discrete model, describing epidemic course day by day is transferred to differential form. The conditions for saturation of epidemic are found by solving the delay differential equations. They differ essentially from ones in SIR model due to finite delay, typical for COVID-19 The proposed model opens up the possibility to predict the optimal level of social quarantine measures. The model is quite flexible and it can be extended to more complex cases.

scholarly journals Forecasting Covid-19 Outbreak Progression in Italian Regions: A model based on neural network training from Chinese data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosimo Distante ◽  
Igor Gadelha Pereira ◽  
Luiz M. Garcia Gonçalves ◽  
Prisco Piscitelli ◽  
Alessandro Miani
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Network Training ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Day By Day

AbstractBackgroundEpidemiological figures of Covid-19 epidemic in Italy are worse than those observed in China.MethodsWe modeled the Covid-19 outbreak in Italian Regions vs. Lombardy to assess the epidemics progression and predict peaks of new daily infections and total cases by learning from the entire Chinese epidemiological dynamics. We trained an artificial neural network model, a modified auto-encoder with Covid-19 Chinese data, to forecast epidemic curve of the different Italian regions, and use the susceptible–exposed–infected–removed (SEIR) compartment model to predict the spreading and peaks. We have estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) - which represents the average number of people that can be infected by a person who has already acquired the infection - both by fitting the exponential growth rate of the infection across a 1-month period, and also by using a day by day assessment, based on single observations.ResultsThe expected peak of SEIR model for new daily cases was at the end of March at national level. The peak of overall positive cases is expected by April 11th in Southern Italian Regions, a couple of days after that of Lombardy and Northern regions. According to our model, total confirmed cases in all Italy regions could reach 160,000 cases by April 30th and stabilize at a plateau.ConclusionsTraining neural networks on Chinese data and use the knowledge to forecast Italian spreading of Covid-19 has resulted in a good fit, measured with the mean average precision between official Italian data and the forecast.

Trend of Hospital Admission and Outcome Study of Patients Admitted in a Neurology Unit at a Tertiary Care Neuroscience Hospital in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-74
Author(s):  
Md Tauhidul Islam Chowdhury ◽  
Mohammad Shah Jahirul Hoque Choudhury ◽  
KM Ahasan Ahmed ◽  
Mohammad Sadekur Rahman Sarkar ◽  
Md Abdullah Yusuf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neurological Disorders ◽  
Neurological Diseases ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Retrospective Chart Review ◽  
Total Death ◽  
Neurological Patients ◽  
Study Population ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Day By Day

Background: Neurological disorders is becoming a growing concern both for developed and developing countries. Magnitude of the problem is increasing day by day. Among all neurological disorders, stroke is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally.Objectives: The purpose of the study was to see the trend of admission of patients with neurological diseases and to study the outcome of patients at referral neurology hospital in Bangladesh.Methodology: This retrospective chart review was conducted in the blue unit of the Department of Neurology at National Institute of Neurosciences and Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh from 1st January to 31st December 2016 for a period of one (01) year. All the admitted patients with both sexes were selected as study population. The outcome was observed among the study population.Result: A total number of 1044 patients were admitted during the study period. Majority of the patients were in the age group of the 41 to 50 years which was 417(39.9%) cases. Both male and female were in highest number in the month of May which was 63 and 48 cases respectively. The total death of the study population was 146(14.0%) cases. The mean length of hospital stay was 8.4±2.31 days.Conclusion: Middle aged male is the main bulk of the neurological patients, admitted in a referral neurology hospital in Bangladesh. Highest admission and mortality was observed in stroke patients.Journal of National Institute of Neurosciences Bangladesh, 2018;4(2): 69-74

Efficacy of Danazol with Autoimmune Thrombocytopenia

1997 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 251-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven W. Kim ◽  
Lawrence Rice ◽  
John J. McCarthy
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Lupus Erythematosus ◽  
Evans Syndrome ◽  
Systemic Lupus ◽  
Autoimmune Thrombocytopenia ◽  
Treatment Regimens ◽  
Duration Of Disease ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Favorable Side Effect Profile

Seventy-nine cases of autoimmune thrombocytopenia seen by the Baylor Hematology section of The Methodist Hospital between 1991 and 1996 were retrospectively reviewed to assess the effectiveness of danazol in the treatment of autoimmune thrombocytopenia. Among the 42 patients who received danazol, the mean initial platelet count prior to treatment was 24.3 ± 17.4 (SD) × 109/L with a mean duration of disease of 53 months. Most cases were idiopathic, but some patients had underlying secondary disorders (rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus, HIV, and/or Evans' syndrome). Overall 57% of the patients treated with danazol had an excellent or a good response with three patients who had unmaintained remission for >11 months. Minimal side effects were noted. Fifty percent of the patients with associated secondary disorders achieved an excellent or good response. The hemolytic component of all three Evans' syndrome cases was well controlled with danazol. In two cases, danazol was effective where a variety of other treatment regimens were not. An excellent or a good response was found in 58%, 62%, and 53% in patients >65 years old, between 45 and 65 years old, and <45 years old, respectively. Response rates were similar in males and females, Seventy percent of the nonsplenectomized patients had an excellent or a good response compared to 33% in postsplenectomy patients. Overall in view of its favorable side-effect profile, it is rational early on to attempt to abrogate the need for splenectomy, it may salvage splenectomy failures, and there is a reasonable response rate in those refractory to multiple prior therapies. Key Words: Autoimmune thrombocytopenia—Idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura—Danazol— Systemic lupus erythematosus—HIV—Evans' syndrome.

Effect of Narrow- band UVB on serum and tissue vitamin D level in vitiligo

QJM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 114 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Abdulkareem Al-Shabkhon ◽  
Adel Ahmed Halim Emam ◽  
Ahmed Abd Elfattah Afify
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin D ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Narrow Band ◽  
Tissue Level ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Duration Of Disease ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Tissue Vitamin ◽  
Control Study

Abstract Background Immunologic background of vitiligo, role of vitamin D on its pathogenesis, role of NB-UVB on its treatment and its stimulatory effect NB-UVB on VDR expression are challenging area of research. The current study will focus on evaluating the effect of NB-UVB on serum and tissue level of vitamin D in vitiligo patients and correlating it with the degree of improvement. Aim of the study The aim of the present study is to evaluate and compare the serum and tissue vitamin D level in vitiligo patients before and after NB- UVB therapy and correlate them together and with the degree of improvement. Patients and methods A case-control study included 16 vitiligo patients and 16 age and sex matched healthy controls. All patients will be examined by one dermatologist (demonstrating the extent of depigmentation according to rule of nines), and photographs will be taken before and after phototherapy to be evaluated by two different dermatologists to document the extent of repigmentation. Estimation of serum level of vitamin D by ELISA Results Five of the 15 patients achieved more than 55% repigmentation; the mean duration of disease was 13 months. The remaining 10 patients had 30% - 40% repigmentation.

Oxidation Behavior of LTA/YSZ Intermixed Layer Coating

2018 ◽  
pp. 107-130
Author(s):  
Pritee Purohit ◽  
Shashikant T. Vagge
Keyword(s):  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Inlet Temperature ◽  
Power Generators ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbines ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Aero Engines ◽  
Industrial Gas Turbine ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Very High

This chapter describes how for power generators like gas turbines and aero engines, the economic and environmental challenges are increasing day by day for producing electricity more efficiently. The efficiency of power generators can be increased by changing its operating conditions like inlet temperature and procedure. Currently, the inlet temperature to the industrial gas turbine is reaching up to 1400°C. Also, in aero engines, the ring temperature reaches around 1550°C. Therefore, the coatings used in aero engine applications undergo short duration thermal cycles at very high temperature. The mean metal temperatures reach around 950°C and can increase up to 1100°C. But in industrial gas turbines, it varies from 800 to 950°C. Operating temperature of industrial gas turbines slowly reaches to maximum and ideally remains constant for thousands of hours, unlike aero engines.

Relativistic Theory of the Behavior of Irregularities in an Expanding World Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 304-378
Author(s):  
P. J. E. Peebles
Keyword(s):  
Early Universe ◽  
Relativistic Theory ◽  
Inertial Mass ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
Causal Connection ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Homogeneous Background ◽  
The Big Bang ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Relativistic Analysis

This chapter presents the full relativistic analysis of the evolution of mass clustering. The full relativistic theory is needed to deal with three important aspects of density irregularities in the early universe. First, when the pressure is high the relativistic active gravitational mass and inertial mass associated with pressure affect the dynamics. Second, when the mean density is high, a fluctuation of even modest fractional amount containing a modest mass can have a large effect on the space curvature. One is thus led to deal with the interaction of speculations on the nature of the mass distribution and of the geometry in the early universe. Third, the horizon shrinks to zero at the time of the big bang: the seed fluctuations out of which galaxies might form were larger than the horizon and so were not in causal connection reckoned from the time of the big bang. Of course, this curious point applies as well to the homogeneous background: it was somehow contrived that all parts of the universe now visible were set expanding with quite precise uniformity even though an observer could not have discovered this much before the present epoch.

scholarly journals Association between Psoriasis and Obesity

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 58-61
Author(s):  
Sumit Pandey ◽  
Smita Jha ◽  
Shyam Kumar B.K ◽  
Shyam Kumar B.K. ◽  
Kumar Pokharel
Keyword(s):  
College Teaching ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Medical College ◽  
Pasi Score ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Duration Of Disease ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Chronic Skin ◽  
Chronic Skin Disease

Background: Psoriasis is primarily a chronic skin disease, the course being punctuated by remissions and relapses. Research has shown that hypertension, obesity, heart failure and diabetes are significantly more common in patients with psoriasis. Obesity is associated with severe psoriasis and is reported about twice as frequently among psoriasis patients as in the general population. In recent years many reports have demonstrated an association between psoriasis and metabolic syndrome. Objectives: The aim of this study was to identify the prevalence of obesity in patients with psoriasis and compare it with that of non-psoriatic population. Material and Method: This study is a case control hospital based study conducted in the Department of Dermatology, Venereologyand Leprology of Nepalgunj Medical College Teaching Hospital, Kohalpur between May 2017 to October 2018.Total 56 cases of psoriasis and similar number of healthy age and sex matched controls were enrolled in the study after taking written consent. Detailed history and physical examination was performed with measurement of body mass index which was recorded. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS 20. Result: The results of the study which included 56 patients with psoriasis and 56 subjects without psoriasis. Among them 26 male and 30 female in study population and 25 male and 31 female in control group. The mean age was41.68±19.04 years in study population and 39.46 ±16.27 years in control group. Duration of disease ranged from 2 months to 360months and PASI score ranged from 4.4 to 28.2 with mean PASI score 11.02±5.4. BMI in cases ranged from 16.7 to 34.2 with mean24.3±4.3 and in controls it ranged from 15.5 to 29.1 with mean 21.9±3. Mean BMI was significantly higher in cases than controls. Conclusion: The result of this study supports the significantly higher prevalence of obesity in study population than control group.

scholarly journals Accuracy of GRK-2200T Auto-refkeratometer in Subjective Acceptance for Refractive Errors

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 645-648
Author(s):  
Bishwa Nath Adhikari ◽  
Pramod Sharma Gautam ◽  
Shishu Upadhyay ◽  
Uday Chandra Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Refractive Errors ◽  
Spherical Equivalent ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Medical College ◽  
Spherical Component ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Prospective Comparative Study ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Male To Female ◽  
Day By Day

Introduction: Globally, the most common cause for diminution of vision is refractive errors and the number of patients with refractive errors is increasing day by day. The Auto-refraction (AR) is quick and patient friendly procedure as compared to retinoscopy and subjective refraction in finding out refractive errors. Hence, the accuracy of Auto-refractometer in terms of subjective acceptance (SA) should be taken into account before prescribing optical correction based on findings of that particular model of Auto-refractometer. So, this study is directed towards analysis of the accuracy of GRK-2200T Auto-retieratometer in terms of acceptance by comparing findings of AR with that of SC. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the refractive status of patient's eyes using auto refractometer (GRK-2200T auto-retierato meter) and to estimate the agreement of it in terms of accuracy in acceptance of subjective correction by the patient. Methodology: A hospital based prospective comparative study conducted on 226 eyes of 113 patients who visited out-patient department (OPD) of Ophthalmology at Nobel Medical College and Teaching Hospital (NoMCTH), Biratnagar diagnosed with Myopia, Hyperopia and Astigmatism. Duration of study was 4 months from 2nd October, 2018 to 2nd February, 2019. All data thus collected was subjected to statistical analysis by using SPSS version 22. Result The mean age of the study subjects was 26.91±7.79 years with male to female ratio of 0.47. When spherical power, cylindrical power and the axis are taken into consideration together, only 13.3% of the total tested eyes subjectively accepted the AR values unchanged. On subjective correction, 32.7% of the tested eyes accepted spherical power while 46.5% accepted cylindrical power and 50.9% accepted axis of AR unchanged. About 52.2% of the total eyes examined fall within the deviation of spherical equivalent (SE) of ±o.25D and up to 67.3% of them fall within the deviation of ±o.50D. Conclusion The auto refraction by GRK-2200T auto-retieratometer was found to be satisfactory for a preliminary refraction but not satisfactory as substitutes for conventional subjective refraction. However, auto refraction values obtained by GRK-2200T auto-retieratometer could be important in order to accurately prescribe the cylindrical power as well as its axis than the spherical component.

scholarly journals Numerical treatment of stochastic heroin epidemic model

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Rafiq ◽  
Ali Raza ◽  
M. Usman Iqbal ◽  
Zubair Butt ◽  
Hafiza Anum Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Analysis ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Explicit Methods ◽  
Numerical Treatment ◽  
Deterministic Solution ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Heroin Model

Abstract We have presented the numerical analysis of a stochastic heroin epidemic model in this paper. The mean of stochastic heroin model is itself a deterministic solution. The effect of reproduction number has also been observed in the stochastic heroin epidemic model. We have developed some stochastic explicit and implicitly driven explicit methods for this model. But stochastic explicit methods have flopped for certain values of parameters. In support, some theorems and graphical illustrations are presented.

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