scholarly journals Nomogram to Predict Rapid Kidney Function Decline in Population at Risk of Cardiovascular Disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiuxia Zhang ◽  
Junyan Lu ◽  
Li Lei ◽  
Guodong Li ◽  
Hongbin Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Population At Risk ◽  
Entire Cohort ◽  
Kidney Function Decline

Abstract Background To develop a simple model to predict risk of rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) in population at risk of cardiovascular disease. Methods 8455 subjects aged ≥ 65 years or complicated diabetes or hypertension undergoing community annual health examinations between January 2015 and December 2020 were included. All participants were randomly assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. Rapid kidney function decline was defined as the reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)≥40% during follow-up period. Cox regression analysis and stepwise approach were used to identify the risk factors. A nomogram based on these predictors was then developed, and discrimination, calibration and decision curve analysis were assessed. Results During the median follow-up period of 3.72 years, the incidence of rapid kidney function decline was 11.96% (n = 1011), 11.98% (n = 676) and 11.92% (n = 335) in the entire cohort, development cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes were identified as predictors for RKFD. The nomogram demonstrated a good discriminative power with the 5-year AUCs of 0.763 and 0.740 in the development and the validation cohort, respectively. Calibration plots also demonstrated a good fitness between the observed and predicted risk in both cohorts. Conclusions Risk stratification for rapid kidney function decline is achievable using a risk prediction nomogram based on clinical factors that are readily accessible in primary care. The utility of this nomogram in identifying individuals at high risk of RKFD in the community needs further investigation.

scholarly journals Impact of Metabolic Syndrome on the Development of Cardiovascular Disease among Kazakhs in Remote Rural Areas of Xinjiang, China: A Cohort Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenwen Yang ◽  
Shuxia Guo ◽  
Haixia Wang ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Xianghui Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Metabolic Syndrome ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Baseline Survey ◽  
Minority Populations ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background: Metabolic syndrome (MS) could promote the development of cardiovascular disease(CVD). The aim of this study was to examine the association of MS and its components with CVD among Kazakhs in Xinjiang. Methods: According to the geographical distribution of the minority populations in Xinjiang, we selected the representative prefecture (Yili). A total of 2,644 participants completed the baseline survey between April 2010 and December 2012. The follow-up survey was conducted from April 2016 to December 2016. Only 2,286 out of 2,644 participants were followed-up on, with a follow-up rate of 86.46%. Cox regression was used to evaluate the association of each component and the number of combinations of MS components on the development of CVD. Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC), and triglycerides (TG) were independently associated with CVD. Participants with 1–5 MS components had an increased hazard ratio for developing CVD, from 1.82 to 8.59 (trend P<0.001), compared with those without any MS components. This trend persisted after adjusting for other general risk factors. The risk of developing CVD increased when TG and WC coexisted, or when TG/WC and BP coexisted. However, no significant interactions were found between BP , WC , and TG. Conclusions: BP , WC, and TG were independent risk factors for CVD in Kazakhs. In clinical practice, a more informative assessment may be obtained by taking into account the number of MS components.

scholarly journals Postprandial Hypotension as a Risk Factor for the Development of New Cardiovascular Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study with 36 Month Follow-Up in Community-Dwelling Elderly People

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aelee Jang
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Elderly People ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Postprandial Hypotension ◽  
History Of ◽  
Time Varying Covariates

Postprandial hypotension (PPH) is common among the elderly. However, it is unknown whether the presence of PPH can predict the development of new cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the elderly during the long-term period. This study aimed to prospectively evaluate the presence of PPH and the development of new CVD within a 36 month period in 94 community-dwelling elderly people without a history of CVD. PPH was diagnosed in 47 (50.0%) participants at baseline and in 7 (7.4%) during the follow-up period. Thirty participants (31.9%) developed new CVD within 36 months. We performed a time-dependent Cox regression analysis with PPH, hypertension, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI) as time-varying covariates. In the univariate analyses, the presence of PPH, higher BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure were associated with the development of new CVD. The multivariate analysis indicated that the relationship between PPH and the development of new CVD remained (adjusted hazard ratio 11.18, 95% confidence interval 2.43–51.38, p = 0.002) even after controlling for other variables as covariates. In conclusion, the presence of PPH can predict the development of new CVD. Elderly people with PPH may require close surveillance to prevent CVD.

scholarly journals Nomogram to predict risk of incident chronic kidney disease in high-risk population of cardiovascular disease in China: community-based cohort study

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. e047774
Author(s):  
Qiuxia Zhang ◽  
Jingyi Zhang ◽  
Li Lei ◽  
Hongbin Liang ◽  
Yun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Incident Chronic Kidney Disease

AimsTo develop a nomogram for incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk evaluation among community residents with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.MethodsIn this retrospective cohort study, 5730 non-CKD residents with high CVD risk participating the National Basic Public Health Service between January 2015 and December 2020 in Guangzhou were included. Endpoint was incident CKD defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 during the follow-up period. The entire cohorts were randomly (2:1) assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort. Predictors of incident CKD were selected by multivariable Cox regression and stepwise approach. A nomogram based on these predictors was developed and evaluated with concordance index (C-index) and area under curve (AUC).ResultsDuring the median follow-up period of 4.22 years, the incidence of CKD was 19.09% (n=1094) in the entire cohort, 19.03% (727 patients) in the development cohort and 19.21% (367 patients) in the validation cohort. Age, body mass index, eGFR 60–89 mL/min/1.73 m2, diabetes and hypertension were selected as predictors. The nomogram demonstrated a good discriminative power with C-index of 0.778 and 0.785 in the development and validation cohort. The 3-year, 4-year and 5-year AUCs were 0.817, 0.814 and 0.834 in the development cohort, and 0.830, 0.847 and 0.839 in the validation cohort.ConclusionOur nomogram based on five readily available predictors is a reliable tool to identify high-CVD risk patients at risk of incident CKD. This prediction model may help improving the healthcare strategies in primary care.

scholarly journals The Value of Blood Urea Nitrogen in the Prediction of Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in an Older Population

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qin Lan ◽  
Liang Zheng ◽  
Xiaohui Zhou ◽  
Hong Wu ◽  
Nicholas Buys ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Blood Urea Nitrogen ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Older Population ◽  
Urea Nitrogen ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk

Background: High blood urea nitrogen (BUN) is associated with adverse outcomes in patients with cardiac disease risks. However, no study has explored whether BUN can predict the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the healthy older population. This study aims to explore the incidence and risk factors of CVD among a healthy older population community in China.Design and Methods: This study was designed as a cohort study with a 4-year follow-up. We recruited 5,000 older people among 137,625 residents of the Gaohang community. In the baseline, subjects were asked to participate in medical screening and biological tests, and answered survey questions. During the follow-up period (2014–2017), the researchers regularly tested the subjects' indicators and assessment scales. We monitored the occurrence of CVD and explored the relationship between BUN and CVD via a Cox regression analysis.Results: During the follow-up, subjects were newly diagnosed with CVD including heart failure (HF), heart disease events, atrial fibrillation, diabetes, hypertension, metabolic syndrome, and kidney disease. The Cox regression analysis found an association between baseline BUN and incident CVD in female subjects, with higher BUN associated with increased risk of AF in females and kidney disease in both male and females. No association was found between BUN and CVD in male subjects.Conclusions: Current results indicate that BUN is a valuable predictive biomarker of CVD. A higher BUN level (&gt;13.51 mg/dL) is associated with an increased occurrence of HF but a decreased occurrence of diabetes and metabolic symptoms in normal older females.

MO129COMPARATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF SGLT2I VERSUS DPP4I ON CARDIOVASCULAR AND RENAL OUTCOMES IN ROUTINE-CARE SETTINGS

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edouard Fu ◽  
Marco Trevisan ◽  
Vivekananda Lanka ◽  
Catherine M Clase ◽  
Yang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Primary Outcome ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Routine Care ◽  
Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Kidney Function Decline ◽  
Egfr Slope

Abstract Background and Aims While clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors on preventing cardiovascular and renal damage, few studies have expanded this evidence to routine-care settings. Method We compared clinical outcomes of adults who started SGLT2i or DPP4i therapy in Stockholm, Sweden, during 2013-2019. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular (CV) death and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke), all-cause mortality and the rate of eGFR decline (eGFR slope). Propensity score weighted Cox regression was used to balance 55 variables and estimate intention-to-treat hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Differences in eGFR slope were calculated with linear mixed models. Results We identified 7136 individuals starting SGLT2i and 13,618 starting DPP4i therapy. Median age was 64 years (37% women) and median eGFR 86 ml/min/1.73m2. During median follow-up of 2.1 years, 211 individuals developed the primary outcome, 269 experienced MACE and 178 died. After propensity score weighting, patients starting SGLT2i therapy were at lower risk for the composite of CV death/HF hospitalization (HR 0.71; 95% CI 0.53-0.94) compared with DPP4i, and showed a tendency towards lower MACE (0.84; 95% CI 0.67-1.04) and all-cause mortality (0.85; 95% CI 0.62-1.18). There were a median of 4 (interquartile range: 2-8) eGFR measurements during follow-up per patient to estimate their eGFR slopes. In adjusted models, new users of SGLT2i had a slower rate of kidney function decline compared with DPP4i (eGFR slope difference of 0.43 (95% CI 0.15-0.72) ml/min/1.73m2 per year). Results for the primary outcome were consistent across 7 pre-specified subgroups, including eGFR (eGFR ≥60: HR 0.79 [95% CI 0.57-1.08]; eGFR &lt;60: HR 0.62 [0.38-0.99], p-value for interaction 0.40). Conclusion In patients undergoing routine care, initiation of SGLT2i was associated with fewer cardiovascular outcomes and less rapid kidney function decline compared with DPP4i initiation.

scholarly journals Blood Pressure Classification of 2017 Associated With Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in Young Chinese Adults

Hypertension ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouling Wu ◽  
Yongjian Song ◽  
Shuohua Chen ◽  
Mengyi Zheng ◽  
Yihan Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Chinese Adults ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
New Guidelines ◽  
Stage 1

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association introduced new guidelines for blood pressure (BP) classification in 2017. We explored associations between the newly defined categories and eventual cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, stroke, and all-cause mortality in young Chinese adults. In the community-based Kailuan Study, 16 006 participants aged 18 to 40 years and examined at baseline in 2006/2007 underwent 2-yearly follow-up examinations up to 2016 to 2017. Taking the highest BP reading recorded by manual sphygmomanometry at baseline in 2006 to 2007, we categorized the BP according to the new guidelines. Outcome parameters were CVD events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. During follow-up (mean: 10.9±0.63 years), we observed 458 events (CVD, 167; stroke, 119; and all-cause death, 172). After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for CVD events were for elevated BP 0.80 (95% CI, 0.28–2.30), stage 1 hypertension 1.82 (95% CI, 1.12–2.94), and stage 2 hypertension 3.54 (95% CI, 2.18–5.77) versus normal BP. Similar results were obtained for stroke and all-cause death. In Cox regression analysis with BP category entered as time-dependent covariate, stage 1 hypertension was not associated with increased risk ( P >0.10). In the subgroup of individuals taking antihypertensive medication during follow-up, none of the BP categories was significantly associated with the incidence of CVD events. During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, the newly defined category of stage 1 hypertension in young untreated Chinese adults aged <40 years at baseline was associated with an increased risk for CVD, stroke, and all-cause mortality. This increased risk occurred, however, after progression to stage 2 hypertension. The data may help validating the new BP classification system for young adult Chinese.

Prevalence, pattern and associated cardiovascular risk of t-wave inversion in hypertensive patients: a 5-year follow-up study

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Kasiakogias ◽  
D Konstantinidis ◽  
K Dimitriadis ◽  
F Tatakis ◽  
I Zammanis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Composite Endpoint ◽  
Hypertensive Patients ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
T Wave ◽  
St Depression ◽  
Wave Inversion

Abstract Background Data on prevalence and associated prognosis of repolarization abnormalities among hypertensive patients are limited. Purpose We investigated the presence and extent of ST-segment and T-wave changes in a hypertensive population and their predictive ability for cardiovascular disease. Methods We studied 1851 white Caucasian hypertensive patients (age 58±12 years, 51%females) without a history of cardiovascular disease for a mean period of 5.3±3.4 years. At the baseline examination, all patients underwent standard 12-lead electrocardiography. T-wave inversion (TWI) was defined as T-wave deflection ≥−0.1 mV in ≥2 contiguous leads,unless associated with bundle branch block. Anterior, lateral or inferior TWI was defined as TWIin leads V2-V4 or V5,V6, I, AVL or II, aVF respectively. Thedepth in millimeters of TWI in each lead was recorded and the maximum depth per location was calculated. ST depression was defined as ≥1mm in depth in two or more contiguous leads.During follow-up, patients underwent clinic visits at least yearly for management of hypertension and risk factors. The outcome studied was theincidence of cardiovascular morbidity set as the composite of non-fatal coronary artery disease and stroke. Results In the entire population, prevalence of TWI was 3.8%, of which 39% presented withanterior TWI, 73% withlateral TWI and 11% with inferior TWI. ST depression was observed in 3.6% of patients (anterior in 0.8%, inferior in 0.9% and lateral in 2.6%). Incidence of the composite endpoint during follow-up was 4%. Cox regression analysis revealed that presence of TWI was associated with a significantly greater risk for cardiovascular events (HR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1–5.9, p=0.025). The association was stronger for lateral TWI (HR: 3.3, 95%: CI: 1.34–8.30, p=0.01) compared to other locations. In multivariate models controlling for standard confounders these associations were overall sustained. Depth of TWI and presence of ST depression were not associated with cardiovascular risk. Conclusions Among hypertensive patients without cardiovascular disease, TWI is infrequent but significantly associated with future cardiovascular events.Lateral TWI carries the worse prognosis Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Serum Total Homocysteine and Cardiovascular Disease Occurrence in Chronic, Stable Renal Transplant Recipients: A Prospective Study

2000 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
DIDIER DUCLOUX ◽  
GÉRARD MOTTE ◽  
BRUNO CHALLIER ◽  
ROGER GIBEY ◽  
JEAN-MARC CHALOPIN
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Renal Transplant ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Renal Transplant Recipients ◽  
Transplant Recipients ◽  
Creatinine Concentration ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Total Homocysteine

Abstract. Renal transplant recipients have disproportionately high rates of arteriosclerotic outcomes, and recent studies provided controlled evidence that clinically stable renal transplant recipients have an excess prevalence of hyperhomocysteinemia. Few studies suggest that hyperhomocysteinemia may be a cardiovascular risk factor in renal transplant recipients. In the study presented here, the association between atherosclerotic events and homocysteine concentrations was examined in 207 stable renal transplant recipients. The role of hyperhomocysteinemia was analyzed with respect to other known cardio-vascular risk factors. The mean follow-up was 21.2 ± 1.9 mo (range, 14 to 26). Mean total homocysteine (tHcy) was 21.1 ± 9.5 μmol/L and median concentration was 19 μmol/L. Seventy percent of patients (n = 153) were hyperhomocysteinemic (values >15 μmol/L). tHcy correlated negatively with folate concentration (r = -0.3; P <0.01). tHcy was closely related to creatinine concentration (r = 0.54; P < 0.001). Cardiovascular disease events (CVE) including death were observed in 30 patients (14.5%; 7.34 events per 1000 person-months of follow-up). Fasting tHcy values were higher in patients who experienced CVE (31.5 ± 10.3 versus 17.8 ± 7.5; P < 0.001). Cox regression analysis showed that tHcy was a risk factor for cardiovascular complications (relative risk [RR] 1.06; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.04 to 1.09; P < 0.0001). This corresponds to an increase in RR for CVE of 6% per μmol/L increase in tHcy concentration. Age (RR 1.55; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.19; P < 0.01) and creatinine concentration (RR 1.34; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.66; P < 0.01) were also independent predictor for CVE. This study demonstrates that elevated fasting tHcy is an independent risk factor for the development of CVE in chronic stable renal transplant recipients. Randomized, place-bo-controlled homocysteine studies of the effect of tHcy lowering on CVE rates are urgently required in this patient population.

scholarly journals The association of nine amino acids with cardiovascular events in Finnish men in a 12-year follow-up study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raimo Jauhiainen ◽  
Jagadish Vangipurapu ◽  
Annamaria Laakso ◽  
Teemu Kuulasmaa ◽  
Johanna Kuusisto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Amino Acids ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Amino Acid ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Artery Disease

Abstract Background and aims To investigate the significance of nine amino acids as risk factors for incident cardiovascular disease events in 9,584 Finnish men. Materials and Methods A total of 9,584 men (age 57.4±7.0 years, body mass index 27.2±4.2 kg/m 2) from the METSIM study without cardiovascular disease and type 1 diabetes at baseline were included in this study. A total of 662 coronary artery disease (CAD) events, 394 ischemic stroke events, and 966 cardiovascular disease (CVD, CAD and stroke combined) events were recorded in a 12.3-year follow-up. Amino acids were measured using nuclear magnetic resonance platform. Results In Cox regression analysis phenylalanine and tyrosine were significantly associated with increased risk of CAD and CVD events, and phenylalanine with increased risk of ischemic stroke after the adjustment for confounding factors. Glutamine was significantly associated with decreased risk of stroke and CVD events and nominally with CAD events. Alanine was nominally associated with CAD events. Conclusion We identified alanine as a new amino acid associated with increased risk of CAD and glutamine as a new amino acid associated with decreased risk of ischemic stroke. We also confirmed that phenylalanine and tyrosine were associated with CAD, ischemic stroke, and CVD events.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular disease risk assessment in patients with familial Mediterranean fever related renal amyloidosis

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Micol Romano ◽  
David Piskin ◽  
Roberta A. Berard ◽  
Bradley C. Jackson ◽  
Cengizhan Acikel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Kidney Diseases ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽  
Aa Amyloidosis ◽  
Cox Regression Analysis ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Fgf 23

Abstract Chronic inflammation and proteinuria is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney diseases and rheumatologic disorders. Our aim was to investigate the CVD events (CVDEs) and survival between the patients with FMF-related AA amyloidosis and glomerulonephropathies (GN) to define possible predictors for CVDEs. A prospective follow-up study with FMF-amyloidosis and glomerulonephropathy (GN) was performed and patients were followed for CVDEs. Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), FGF-23, serum lipid, hsCRP levels, BMI and HOMA were assessed. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the risk factors for CVDEs. There were 107 patients in the FMF-amyloidosis group and 126 patients with GN group. Forty-seven CVDEs were observed during the 4.2-years follow up; all 28 patients in the FMF-amyloidosis group and 14/19 patients with GN developed CVDEs before the age of 40 (p = 0.002). CVD mortality was 2.8 times higher (95% CI 1.02–7.76) in patients with FMF-amyloidosis. Across both groups, FMD and FGF23 (p < 0.001) levels were independently associated with the risk of CVDEs. Patients with FMF-amyloidosis are at increased risk of early CVDEs with premature mortality age. FGF 23, FMD and hsCRP can stratify the risk of early CVD in patients with FMF-related AA amyloidosis.

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