What is Required to Prevent a Second Major Outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Upon Lifting the Metropolitan-Wide Quarantine of Wuhan City, China: A Mathematical Modelling Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Mingwang Shen ◽  
Xiaomeng Ma ◽  
Shu Su ◽  
Wenfeng Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Modelling Study

scholarly journals What is required to prevent a second major outbreak of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 upon lifting the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Mingwang Shen ◽  
Xiaomeng Ma ◽  
Shu Su ◽  
Wenfeng Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Facial Mask ◽  
Staff Members ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundThe Chinese government implemented a metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan city on 23rd January 2020 to curb the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19. Lifting of this quarantine is imminent. We modelled the effects of two key health interventions on the epidemic when the quarantine is lifted.MethodWe constructed a compartmental dynamic model to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic at different quarantine lifting dates and investigated the impact of different rates of public contact and facial mask usage on the epidemic.ResultsWe estimated that at the end of the epidemic, a total of 65,572 (46,156-95,264) individuals would be infected by the virus, among which 16,144 (14,422-23,447, 24.6%) would be infected through public contacts, 45,795 (32,390-66,395, 69.7%) through household contact, 3,633 (2,344-5,865, 5.5%) through hospital contacts (including 783 (553-1,134) non-COVID-19 patients and 2,850 (1,801-4,981) medical staff members). A total of 3,262 (1,592-6,470) would die of COVID-19 related pneumonia in Wuhan. For an early lifting date (21st March), facial mask needed to be sustained at a relatively high rate (≥85%) if public contacts were to recover to 100% of the pre-quarantine level. In contrast, lifting the quarantine on 18th April allowed public person-to-person contact adjusted back to the pre-quarantine level with a substantially lower level of facial mask usage (75%). However, a low facial mask usage (<50%) combined with an increased public contact (>100%) would always lead a significant second outbreak in most quarantine lifting scenarios. Lifting the quarantine on 25th April would ensure a smooth decline of the epidemics regardless of the combinations of public contact rates and facial mask usage.ConclusionThe prevention of a second epidemic is viable after the metropolitan-wide quarantine is lifted but requires a sustaining high facial mask usage and a low public contact rate.

scholarly journals Early epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City: China, January-February, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Katsushi Kagaya ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Public Health Intervention ◽  
Ecological Modelling ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiological Parameters

AbstractBackgroundSince the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world. Despite the scarcity of publicly available data, scientists around the world have made strides in estimating the magnitude of the epidemic, the basic reproduction number, and transmission patterns. Accumulating evidence suggests that a substantial fraction of the infected individuals with the novel coronavirus show little if any symptoms, which highlights the need to reassess the transmission potential of this emerging disease. In this study, we derive estimates of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China, by reconstructing the underlying transmission dynamics using multiple data sources.MethodsWe employ statistical methods and publicly available epidemiological datasets to jointly derive estimates of transmissibility and severity associated with the novel coronavirus. For this purpose, the daily series of laboratory–confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Wuhan City together with epidemiological data of Japanese repatriated from Wuhan City on board government–chartered flights were integrated into our analysis.ResultsOur posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019–2020 reached values at 3.49 (95%CrI: 3.39–3.62) with a mean serial interval of 6.0 days, and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 was associated with a significantly reduced R at 0.84 (95%CrI: 0.81–0.88), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 1906634 (95%CrI: 1373500–2651124) in Wuhan City, elevating the overall proportion of infected individuals to 19.1% (95%CrI: 13.5–26.6%). We also estimated the most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time–delay adjusted IFR at 0.04% (95% CrI: 0.03%–0.06%) and 0.12% (95%CrI: 0.08–0.17%), respectively, estimates that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR estimated at 4.06%ConclusionsWe have estimated key epidemiological parameters of the transmissibility and virulence of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China during January-February, 2020 using an ecological modelling approach. The power of this approach lies in the ability to infer epidemiological parameters with quantified uncertainty from partial observations collected by surveillance systems.

scholarly journals Consideration of the Management of Pediatric Fever Clinics During the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Outbreak

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Hui Ding ◽  
Zhaoling Shi ◽  
Zhen Ruan ◽  
Xiaoning Cheng ◽  
Ruying Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Medical Staff ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Cross Infection ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Treatment And Prevention ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

ABSTRACT Since the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection in Wuhan City, China, pediatric cases have gradually increased. It is very important to prevent cross-infection in pediatric fever clinics, to identify children with fever in pediatric fever clinics, and to strengthen the management of pediatric fever clinics. According to prevention and control programs, we propose the guidance on the management of pediatric fever clinics during the nCoV pneumonia epidemic period, which outlines in detail how to optimize processes, prevent cross-infection, provide health protection, and prevent disinfection of medical staff. The present consideration statement summarizes current strategies on the pre-diagnosis, triage, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of 2019-nCoV infection, which provides practical suggestions on strengthening the management of pediatric fever clinics during the nCoV pneumonia epidemic period.

scholarly journals The effects of the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation strategy of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjin Wang ◽  
Pei Wang ◽  
Shudao Zhang ◽  
Hao Pan
Keyword(s):  
Turning Point ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Start Date ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Motivated by the quick control in Wuhan, China, and the rapid spread in other countries of COVID-19, we investigate the questions that what is the turning point in Wuhan by quantifying the variety of basic reproductive number after the lockdown city. The answer may help the world to control the COVID-19 epidemic. A modified SEIR model is used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan city. Our model is calibrated by the hospitalized cases. The modeling result gives out that the means of basic reproductive numbers are 1.5517 (95% CI 1.1716-4.4283) for the period from Jan 25 to Feb 11, 2020, and 0.4738(95% CI 0.0997-0.8370) for the period from Feb 12 to Mar 10. The transmission rate fell after Feb 12, 2020 as a result of China’s COVID-19 strategy of keeping society distance and the medical support from all China, but principally because of the clinical symptoms to be used for the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) confirmation in Wuhan since Feb 12, 2020. Clinical diagnosis can quicken up NCP-confirmation such that the COVID-19 patients can be isolated without delay. So the clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation is the turning point of the COVID-19 battle of Wuhan. The measure of clinical symptoms pneumonia-confirmation in Wuhan has delayed the growth and reduced size of the COVID-19 epidemic, decreased the peak number of the hospitalized cases by 96% in Wuhan. Our modeling also indicates that the earliest start date of COVID-19 in Wuhan may be Nov 2, 2019.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Diagnosis, Management and Response

2021 ◽  
pp. 161-170
Author(s):  
Ashwini Shalikrao Mhaske ◽  
Swaroopa Chakole
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Positive Patient ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Early Reaction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Predetermined Number

Background: COVID infection 2019 (COVID-19) is identified as a disease caused by Corona virus formally known as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2), which was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, amidst of an outbreak of respiratory sickness cases. Summary: As there is no affirmed total course of treatment for the Novel Coronavirus, the best way to handle it is by playing it safe, its administration and early reaction. Segregation and disinfection go inseparably with regards to dealing with a COVID positive patient. In any case, the predetermined number of clinical office accessible is blocking the cycle of control and anticipation for a particularly number of infected patients. Conclusion: As the pandemic is advancing, more examinations and exploration is needed to effectively deal with the spread of the novel Corona virus. Foundation improvement and arrangement of clinical office and gear is the preeminent prerequisite for early reaction and treatment.

scholarly journals Update on recommendations for the diagnosis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 2211-2223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongjun Miao ◽  
Han Li ◽  
Yinying Yao ◽  
Mingfu Wu ◽  
Chao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Strategies ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Treatment Standards ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Health Committee ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pneumonia Diagnosis

AbstractSince the outbreak of novel coronavirus infection pneumonia in Wuhan City, China, in late 2019, such cases have been gradually reported in other parts of China and abroad. Children have become susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) because of their immature immune function. As the outbreak has progressed, more cases of novel coronavirus infection/pneumonia in children have been reported. Compared with adults, the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is less severe, with a lower incidence and susceptibility in children, which results in fewer children being tested, thereby underestimating the actual number of infections. Therefore, strengthening the diagnosis of the disease is particularly important for children, and early and clear diagnosis can determine treatment strategies and reduce the harm caused by the disease to children. According to the Novel Coronavirus Infection Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Standards (trial version 7) issued by National Health Committee and the latest diagnosis and treatment strategies for novel coronavirus infection pneumonia in children, this review summarizes current strategies on diagnosis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children.

scholarly journals Correlation between ginseng radix and the novel coronavirus about a possible future alternative treatment

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. e712985720
Author(s):  
Anne Karynne da Silva Barbosa ◽  
Wenna Lúcia Lima
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Herbal Medicine ◽  
Respiratory Tract ◽  
Alternative Treatment ◽  
Herbal Medicines ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Radix Ginseng ◽  
First Millennium ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In 2019 in Wuhan city (China), is was outbreak about a novel coronavirus, causes an infections respirator, in children and adults, and is new condition was call for COVID-19. The present study being about herbal medicines and their correlation with diseases on respiratory tract basically COVID-19. To date, there are no studies showing how Ginseng Radix cooperated with the prevention or for to treat coronavirus diseases, so the aimed the present study was a to analyze in literature about this. The aim is to observe the correlation about the Ginseng Radix as a future treatment in novel coronavirus. The present study is a fruit of a review integrative of literature, where the keywords was search in databases Pubmed and Scielo.org, the keywords (Herbal medicines, Ginseng radix and Coronavirus infections) are presents in DeCS. The herbal medicines are famous alternative therapeutic for the treatment a most diseases, when used the herbal medicines for various diseases, being diseases cardiology, immunology, and too tract respiratory. The use for the herbal medicines is a secular practice, and we found a most popular, but is present study is about the ginseng radix. Ginseng is an herbal medicine derived from the root of the panax, and your use is described since the first millennium, your properties are preventing many diseases, including cancer, hypertension, and others, described in the literature. The Ginseng radix is an herbal medicine be used in the treatment for the children and adults, the problems for the tract respiratory, and exists a guideline specific for the herbal medicines and the use in clinical practice.

scholarly journals Problems Faced by Doctors while Managing COVID Patient in Institutional Isolation Duty during COVID-19: An Article

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 575-586
Author(s):  
Meenal Rajput, Dr. Sourya Acharya
Keyword(s):  
Health Worker ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
Stressful Situation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background Once again the globe is facing the menace of a lethal virus. After the Ebola crisis in Africa, the WHO declared the novel coronavirus to be a pandemic, started spreading from Wuhan city in China in December 2019. We need to acknowledge and appreciate the efforts of doctors in this covid19 crisis for performing their duties without even thinking of being infected by the virus and risking their life. Doctors are at the forefront in the war against the COVID-19 pandemic, they are facing many obstacles in performing their duties.. Doctors are going through many difficulties in isolation duty. Physicians have been called upon to work under radically new situations, to feel exhausted due to heavy workloads and protective equipment, to fear of being exposed and infecting others, to feel helpless in coping with patients' conditions, and to navigate a stressful situation. These all were the main, which is to be manipulated and controlled by the health worker providers.   Objectives This article is to find out the issues faced by the doctors while working in the isolation duty. Result                                                                                         Study among 50 doctors, 98% of them has received training in donning and doffing of PPE, 88% experience shortage of amenities in isolation wards, while 52% face interruption while doing work in PPE. 100% of them experience suffocation while wearing PPE. 12% of them have a fear of being isolated while working in isolation wards. 16% of them were worried and tensed all the time while working in covid ward. Conclusion It is required to identify the difficulties that are faced by the doctors while working in covid isolation duty and at most to resolve them so that they can work comfortably and to strengthen the protection of those persons who carry out their duties fearlessly.

The novel coronavirus and its possible treatment by vaccines, therapeutics and drug delivery systems: Current status and future perspectives

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 54-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhurya Kadavakollu ◽  
Veera Venkata Satyanarayana Reddy Karri ◽  
Kuppusamy Gowthamarajan ◽  
Arun Radhakrishnan ◽  
Dhanabal Palanisamy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Virus Disease ◽  
World Health ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

In the mid-end of December 2019, several cases of pneumonia outbreak of unknown cause and etiology were identified in Wuhan City of Hubei province in China, a city with a population of over 11 million.Till date(April 2020) around 1,051,635 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) and 56,985 confirmed deaths have been reported according to COVID-19 Situation Report – 75 by WHO. On 7th January 2020, the causative agent was identified and named consequently as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) from throat swab samples. Later, on 12th January 2020, this coronavirus was named as 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by World Health Organization (WHO) and in 11th February 2020,it has been declared the epidemic disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19) as it is spreading rapidly from its origin in Wuhan City to the rest of the world. In this context, the current review provides a landscape of the novel Corona Virus including its origin, transmission, epidemiology, drugs and vaccines in clinical trials for better understanding to the reads and peoples the status and future perspectives of this pandemic disease

scholarly journals The review of COVID-19 and the current progress in intervention and diagnostics

2021 ◽  
Vol 292 ◽  
pp. 03075
Author(s):  
Chunyun Chen ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Liwei Guo ◽  
Kanghui Zou
Keyword(s):  
Genome Structure ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Control Methods ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
The Public ◽  
Medical Institutions ◽  
Important Challenge ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan city of Hubei Province of China in December 2019, becoming a pandemic declared by the world health organization. This article is a review of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It typically informs the genome structure of the SARS-CoV-2 and its pathogenic mechanisms, concludes a series of non-pharmaceutical control methods, and focuses on several testing measures. The inventions of the disease treatments remain an important challenge to all medical institutions while a series of medications have been brought to the public.

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