Future Projections of East Asian Climate Change from Multi-AOGCM Ensembles of IPCC SRES Scenario Simulations

This chapter addresses the cultural politics, history and revival of Vietnamese court orchestras, which were first established at the beginning of the Nguyễn dynasty (1802–1945). Based on fieldwork in the city of Hue, it considers the decolonizing processes that have enabled Vietnamese court orchestras to take their place alongside other East Asian court orchestras as a display of national identity in the global community of nations. The metaphor of ‘orchestrating the nation’ is used to refer to the ways in which Vietnamese orchestras have been harnessed for sociopolitical ends in several historical periods. Court orchestras as heritage have recourse to a generic, precolonial past, yet they are not entirely uncoupled from local roots. Through a case-study of the revival of the Nam Giao Sacrifice, a ritual for ‘venerating heaven’, the chapter addresses the dynamics of interaction and exchange between staged performances of national heritage and local Buddhist and ancestor worship rituals. It argues that with growing concern about global climate change, the spiritual and ecological resonances of the Nam Giao Sacrifice have provided opportunities for the Party-state to reassert its position as the supreme guardian of the nation and its people.

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Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1007/s13143-021-00225-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hyun Min Sung ◽

Jisun Kim ◽

Sungbo Shim ◽

Jeong-byn Seo ◽

Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Earth System Model ◽

First Century ◽

System Model ◽

The Arctic ◽

Earth System ◽

Future Projections ◽

Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

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Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan

Canadian Journal of Plant Science ◽

10.4141/cjps2011-192 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 92 (3) ◽

pp. 421-425 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Hong Wang ◽

Yong He ◽

Budong Qian ◽

Brian McConkey ◽

Herb Cutforth ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Grain Yield ◽

Short Communication ◽

Weather Data ◽

Yield Reduction ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Communication Climate ◽

Stochastic Weather Generator ◽

Ipcc Sres

Wang, H., He, Y., Qian, B., McConkey, B., Cutforth, H., McCaig, T., McLeod, G., Zentner, R., DePauw, R., Lemke, R., Brandt, K., Liu, T., Qin, X., White, J., Hunt, T. and Hoogenboom, G. 2012. Short Communication: Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of southern Saskatchewan. Can. J. Plant Sci. 92: 421–425. This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios (CGCM3 with the forcing scenarios of IPCC SRES A1B, A2 and B1) in the 2050s. Synthetic 300-yr weather data were generated by the AAFC stochastic weather generator for the baseline period (1961–1990) and each scenario. Compared with the baseline, precipitation is projected to increase in every month under all three scenarios except in July and August and in June for A2, when it is projected to decrease. Annual mean air temperature is projected to increase by 3.2, 3.6 and 2.7°C for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. The model predicted increases in biomass by 28, 12 and 16% without the direct effect of CO2 and 74, 55 and 41% with combined effects (climate and CO2) for A1B, A2 and B1, respectively. Similar increases were found for grain yield. However, the occurrence of heat shock (>32°C) will increase during grain filling under the projected climate conditions and could cause severe yield reduction, which was not simulated by DSSAT-CSM. This implies that the future yield under climate scenarios might have been overestimated by DSSAT-CSM; therefore, model modification is required. Several measures, such as early seeding, must be taken to avoid heat damages and take the advantage of projected increases in temperature and precipitation in the early season.

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Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigation Demand: Historical Dynamics of Climate and Future Projections

Water Resources Management ◽

10.1007/s11269-014-0565-7 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 28 (5) ◽

pp. 1449-1462 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

I. García-Garizábal ◽

J. Causapé ◽

R. Abrahao ◽

D. Merchan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Projections ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Irrigation Demand ◽

Historical Dynamics

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Climate change impact on water resource extremes in a headwater region of the Tarim basin in China

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-15-3511-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 15 (11) ◽

pp. 3511-3527 ◽

Cited By ~ 39

Author(s):

T. Liu ◽

P. Willems ◽

X. L. Pan ◽

An. M. Bao ◽

X. Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Ground Water ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Snow Accumulation ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Snow Melting ◽

Change Impact ◽

Ipcc Sres

Abstract. The Tarim river basin in China is a huge inland arid basin, which is expected to be highly vulnerable to climatic changes, given that most water resources originate from the upper mountainous headwater regions. This paper focuses on one of these headwaters: the Kaidu river subbasin. The climate change impact on the surface and ground water resources of that basin and more specifically on the hydrological extremes were studied by using both lumped and spatially distributed hydrological models, after simulation of the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas scenarios till the 2050s. The models include processes of snow and glacier melting. The climate change signals were extracted from the grid-based results of general circulation models (GCMs) and applied on the station-based, observed historical data using a perturbation approach. For precipitation, the time series perturbation involves both a wet-day frequency perturbation and a quantile perturbation to the wet-day rainfall intensities. For temperature and potential evapotranspiration, the climate change signals only involve quantile based changes. The perturbed series were input into the hydrological models and the impacts on the surface and ground water resources studied. The range of impact results (after considering 36 GCM runs) were summarized in high, mean, and low results. It was found that due to increasing precipitation in winter, snow accumulation increases in the upper mountainous areas. Due to temperature rise, snow melting rates increase and the snow melting periods are pushed forward in time. Although the qualitive impact results are highly consistent among the different GCM runs considered, the precise quantitative impact results varied significantly depending on the GCM run and the hydrological model.

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Integrating the InVEST and SDSM Model for Estimating Water Provision Services in Response to Future Climate Change in Monsoon Basins of South China

Water ◽

10.3390/w12113199 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 3199

Author(s):

Dong Yang ◽

Wen Liu ◽

Chaohao Xu ◽

Lizhi Tao ◽

Xianli Xu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

South China ◽

Asian Monsoon ◽

East Asian Monsoon ◽

East Asian ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Annual Average ◽

Invest Model ◽

Water Provision

An assessment of how future climate change will impact water provision services is important for formulating rational water resources management and development strategies as well as for ecosystem protection. The East Asian monsoon is an important component of the Asian climate and its changes affect the climate in East Asia and seriously affect the provision of water services. In this study, through the coupling of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Statistical Downscaling Technique Model (SDSM), we evaluated the impact of future climate change on water provisions in a typical East Asian monsoon basin of South China. The results demonstrate the applicability of the InVEST model combined with the SDSM model over the East Asian monsoon river basins. Under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the annual average maximum and minimum temperatures would continually increase far into the future (2080–2095). However, the maximum and minimum temperatures slightly decreased under representative concentration pathway 2.6 scenario (RCP2.6) in the far future (2080–2095). The annual average precipitation and reference evapotranspiration experienced slight but steady increasing trends under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Based on the InVEST model simulation, annual average water yield would increase by 19.3% (33.5%) far in the future (2080–2095) under RCP2.6 (4.5) scenario. This study provides a valuable reference for studying future climate change impacts on water provisions in East Asian monsoon basins.

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