scholarly journals Agent-based modelling of pedestrian responses during flood emergency: mobility behavioural rules and implications for flood risk analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 1078-1092 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Shirvani ◽  
Georges Kesserwani ◽  
Paul Richmond
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Walking Speed ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Shopping Centre ◽  
Synthetic Test ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Hazard Rating

Abstract An agent-based model (ABM) for simulating the interactions between flooding and pedestrians is augmented to more realistic model responses of evacuees during floodwater flow. In this version of the ABM, the crowd of pedestrians have different body heights and weight, and extra behavioural rules are added to incorporate pedestrians’ states of stability and walking speed in floodwater. The augmented ABM is applied to replicate an evacuation scenario for a synthetic test case of a flooded shopping centre. Simulation runs are performed with increasingly sophisticated configuration modes for the pedestrians’ behavioural rules. Simulation results are analysed based on spatial and temporal indicators informing on the dynamic variations of the flood risk states of the flooded pedestrians, i.e. in terms of a commonly used flood Hazard Rating (HR) metric, variable walking speed, and instability due to toppling and/or sliding. Our analysis reveals significantly prolonged evacuation times and risk exposure levels as the stability and walking speed behavioural rules become more sophisticated. Also, it allows us to identify more conservative HR thresholds of pedestrian instability in floodwater, and a new formula relating walking speed states to the HR for stable pedestrians in floodwater. Accompanying details for software accessibility are provided.

scholarly journals The effect of information about climate risk on property values

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (17) ◽  
pp. e2003374118
Author(s):  
Miyuki Hino ◽  
Marshall Burke
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Property Values ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The Stability

Floods and other climate hazards pose a widespread and growing threat to housing and infrastructure around the world. By reflecting climate risk in prices, markets can discourage excessive development in hazardous areas. However, the extent to which markets price these risks remains poorly understood. Here we measure the effect of information about flood risk contained in regulatory floodplain maps on residential property values in the United States. Using multiple empirical approaches and two decades of sales data covering the universe of homes in the United States, we find little evidence that housing markets fully price information about flood risk in aggregate. However, the price penalty is larger for commercial buyers and in markets where buyers are more risk aware, suggesting that policies to improve risk communication could influence market outcomes. Our findings indicate that houses in flood zones in the United States are currently overvalued by a total of $43.8 billion (95% confidence interval: $32.6 to $55.6 billion) based on the information in publicly available flood hazard maps alone, raising concerns about the stability of real estate markets as climate risks become more salient and severe.

scholarly journals Emergent Robotic Personality Traits via Agent-Based Simulation of Abstract Social Environments

Information ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Casey C. Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Human Robot Interaction ◽  
Social Environments ◽  
Agent Based Simulation ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
Behavioral Learning ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Markovian Approach

This paper discusses the creation of an agent-based simulation model for interactive robotic faces, built based on data from physical human–robot interaction experiments, to explore hypotheses around how we might create emergent robotic personality traits, rather than pre-scripted ones based on programmatic rules. If an agent/robot can visually attend and behaviorally respond to social cues in its environment, and that environment varies, then idiosyncratic behavior that forms the basis of what we call a “personality” should theoretically be emergent. Here, we evaluate the stability of behavioral learning convergence in such social environments to test this idea. We conduct over 2000 separate simulations of an agent-based model in scaled-down, abstracted forms of the environment, each one representing an “experiment”, to see how different parameters interact to affect this process. Our findings suggest that there may be systematic dynamics in the learning patterns of an agent/robot in social environments, as well as significant interaction effects between the environmental setup and agent perceptual model. Furthermore, learning from deltas (Markovian approach) was more effective than only considering the current state space. We discuss the implications for HRI research, the design of interactive robotic faces, and the development of more robust theoretical frameworks of social interaction.

scholarly journals A Case Study of Flood Risk Evaluation Based on Emergy Theory and Cloud Model in Anyang Region, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 420
Author(s):  
Zening Wu ◽  
Yuhai Cui ◽  
Yuan Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergy Theory

With the progression of climate change, the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall have increased in many parts of the world, while the continuous acceleration of urbanization has made cities more vulnerable to floods. In order to effectively estimate and assess the risks brought by flood disasters, this paper proposes a regional flood disaster risk assessment model combining emergy theory and the cloud model. The emergy theory can measure many kinds of hazardous factor and convert them into unified solar emergy (sej) for quantification. The cloud model can transform the uncertainty in flood risk assessment into certainty in an appropriate way, making the urban flood risk assessment more accurate and effective. In this study, the flood risk assessment model combines the advantages of the two research methods to establish a natural and social dual flood risk assessment system. Based on this, the risk assessment system of the flood hazard cloud model is established. This model was used in a flood disaster risk assessment, and the risk level was divided into five levels: very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. Flood hazard risk results were obtained by using the entropy weight method and fuzzy transformation method. As an example for the application of this model, this paper focuses on the Anyang region which has a typical continental monsoon climate. The results show that the Anyang region has a serious flood disaster threat. Within this region, Linzhou County and Anyang County have very high levels of risk for flood disaster, while Hua County, Neihuang County, Wenfeng District and Beiguan District have high levels of risk for flood disaster. These areas are the core urban areas and the economic center of local administrative regions, with 70% of the industrial clusters being situated in these regions. Only with the coordinated development of regional flood control planning, economy, and population, and reductions in the uncertainty of existing flood control and drainage facilities can the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the region be maintained.

scholarly journals Coastal flood risk within a peri-urban area: SUSSEX Inlet district, SE Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. F. Asbridge ◽  
D. Low Choy ◽  
B. Mackey ◽  
S. Serrao-Neumann ◽  
P. Taygfeld ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Planning Strategies ◽  
Natural Resource Managers

AbstractThe peri-urban interface (PUI) exhibits characteristic qualities of both urban and rural regions, and this complexity has meant that risk assessments and long-term planning for PUI are lagging, despite these areas representing new developing settlement frontiers. This study aims to address this knowledge gap by modifying an existing approach to quantify and assess flood risk. The risk triangle framework was used to map exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables; however, in a novel application, the risk triangle framework was adapted by presuming that there is a variation in the degree of exposure, vulnerability and biophysical variables. Within Australia and globally, PUIs are often coastal, and flood risk associated with rainfall and coastal inundation poses considerable risk to communities in the PUI; these risks will be further exacerbated should projections of increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events and accelerating sea-level rise eventuate. An indicator-based approach using the risk triangle framework that maps flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability was used to integrate the biophysical and socio-economic flooding risk for communities in PUI of the St Georges Basin and Sussex Inlet catchments of south-eastern Australia. Integrating the flood risk triangle with future scenarios of demographic and climate change, and considering factors that contribute to PUI flood risk, facilitated the identification of planning strategies that would reduce the future rate of increase in flood risk. These planning strategies are useful for natural resource managers and land use planners across Australia and globally, who are tasked with balancing socio-economic prosperity for a changing population, whilst maintaining and enhancing ecosystem services and values. The indicator-based approach used in this study provides a cost-effective first-pass risk assessment and is a valuable tool for decision makers planning for flood risk across PUIs in NSW and globally.

Pairwise Elicitation for a Decision Support Framework to Develop a Flood Risk Response Plan

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
MiguelAndres Guerra ◽  
Yekenalem Abebe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
Decision Making Framework

There are several ways of quantifying flood hazard. When the scale of the analysis is large, flood hazard simulation for an entire city becomes costly and complicated. The first part of this paper proposes utilizing experience and knowledge of local experts about flood characteristics in the area in order to come up with a first-level flood hazard and risk zoning maps, by implementing overlay operations in Arc GIS. In this step, the authors use the concept of pairwise comparison to eliminate the need for carrying out a complicated simulation to quantify flood hazard and risk. The process begins with identifying the main factors that contribute to flooding in a particular area. Pairwise comparison was used to elicit knowledge from local experts and assigned weights for each factor to reflect their relative importance toward flood hazard and risk. In the second part of this paper, the authors present a decision-making framework to support a flood risk response plan. Once the highest risk zones have been identified, a city can develop a risk response plan, for which this paper presents a decision-making framework to select an effective set of alternatives. The framework integrates tools from multicriteria decision-making, charrette design process to guide the pairwise elicitation, and a cost-effective analysis to include the limited budget constraint for any city. The theoretical framework uses the city of Addis Ababa for the first part of the paper. For the second part, the paper utilizes a hypothetical case of Addis Ababa and a mock city infrastructure department to illustrate the implementation of the framework.

A Web-Accessible Robotics Monitoring System Powered by a Thermoelectric Generator Connected to a Battery

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Dell ◽  
Runar Unnthorsson ◽  
C. S. Wei ◽  
William Foley
Keyword(s):  
Peak Power ◽  
Thermoelectric Generator ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Robot System ◽  
Source Power ◽  
Power Generator ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Electrical Supply

In small source power generation scenarios in industrial or remote settings a viable small electrical supply for security and monitoring systems is often problematic due to the variability of the energy sources and the stability of the power generated. These small scale systems lack the advantages of a larger power grid. Therefore peak power requirements can be beyond the power generator necessitating energy storage such as batteries. The authors have developed and documented a reliable thermoelectric generator and a test bed. The generator was combined with a battery in order to meet peak power requirements beyond the unassisted range of the generator. This paper presents a test case result with the thermoelectric generator powering a complete web accessible mobile robot system. The robot system can be used for monitoring, physical manipulation of the environment, routine maintenance and in emergencies.

scholarly journals A framework for global river flood risk assessments

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1871-1892 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Winsemius ◽  
L. P. H. Van Beek ◽  
B. Jongman ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
A. Bouwman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
First Case ◽  
Impact Models ◽  
Damage Estimates

Abstract. There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

scholarly journals Raising risk preparedness by flood risk communication

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1577-1595 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Maidl ◽  
M. Buchecker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Risk Preparedness

Abstract. During the last decade, most European countries have produced hazard maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most efficiently to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard zone about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to better understand the factors that influence flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard zones in Zurich (response rate main survey: 34 %). The questionnaire included items to measure respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information-seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, attachment to the property and trust in local authorities. Data about the type of property and socio-demographic variables were also collected. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but the results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main influencing factors on the intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which respondents evaluated the information material positively as well as their risk awareness. Respondents who had never taken any previous interest in floods were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication that is tailored to the information needs of the target population.

scholarly journals Towards risk-based flood management in highly productive paddy rice cultivation – concept development and application to the Mekong Delta

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 2859-2876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Van Khanh Triet ◽  
Nguyen Viet Dung ◽  
Bruno Merz ◽  
Heiko Apel
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
Rice Cultivation ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Risk Maps

Abstract. Flooding is an imminent natural hazard threatening most river deltas, e.g. the Mekong Delta. An appropriate flood management is thus required for a sustainable development of the often densely populated regions. Recently, the traditional event-based hazard control shifted towards a risk management approach in many regions, driven by intensive research leading to new legal regulation on flood management. However, a large-scale flood risk assessment does not exist for the Mekong Delta. Particularly, flood risk to paddy rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the delta, has not been performed yet. Therefore, the present study was developed to provide the very first insight into delta-scale flood damages and risks to rice cultivation. The flood hazard was quantified by probabilistic flood hazard maps of the whole delta using a bivariate extreme value statistics, synthetic flood hydrographs, and a large-scale hydraulic model. The flood risk to paddy rice was then quantified considering cropping calendars, rice phenology, and harvest times based on a time series of enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS satellite data, and a published rice flood damage function. The proposed concept provided flood risk maps to paddy rice for the Mekong Delta in terms of expected annual damage. The presented concept can be used as a blueprint for regions facing similar problems due to its generic approach. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk to paddy rice caused by changes in land use currently under discussion in the Mekong Delta were estimated. Two land-use scenarios either intensifying or reducing rice cropping were considered, and the changes in risk were presented in spatially explicit flood risk maps. The basic risk maps could serve as guidance for the authorities to develop spatially explicit flood management and mitigation plans for the delta. The land-use change risk maps could further be used for adaptive risk management plans and as a basis for a cost–benefit of the discussed land-use change scenarios. Additionally, the damage and risks maps may support the recently initiated agricultural insurance programme in Vietnam.

scholarly journals A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 139-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. J. Adeloye ◽  
F. D. Mwale ◽  
Z. Dulanya
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract. In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

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