Climate conditions and consequences for de-icing operations as exemplified by the situation on a motorway and airport at Gardermoen, Norway

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 269-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. K. French ◽  
H.-O. Eggestad ◽  
J. Øvstedal ◽  
P.-E. Jahren
Keyword(s):  
Human Factor ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Dew Point ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Using Data

Large amounts of de-icing chemicals are used in the northern hemisphere to maintain winter safety on roads and airports every year. At Gardermoen, potassium formate (KFo) is used on runways, sodium chloride (NaCl) on roads and propylene glycol (PG) for aeroplanes. The total use of de-icing chemicals is an important part of the risk assessment related to water contamination at Gardermoen. The objective of this paper is to examine how climatic factors affect the use of de-icing chemicals through interviews with de-icing operators and by statistical methods using data on climate variables and de-icing operations. A multiple linear regression model shows a good relationship between daily dew point temperature, precipitation, wind speed, number of departures and the use of PG. The results were less promising for the prediction of KFo. This might be explained by the human factor and insufficiency of the standard climate variables to represent the situation near the runway. An analysis of daily downscaled climate change scenarios for the Gardermoen area revealed insufficient detail for any accurate estimates of change in total consumption of de-icing chemicals. The predicted mean increase of 7.6°C during winter does, however, suggest a reduced need for de-icing chemicals in the long term (2071–2100).

scholarly journals Improving the reliability of cable lines operation in hot climates

2020 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. 01151
Author(s):  
Daniyar Bakhtiyarovich Madrakhimov ◽  
Vera Pavlovna Ivanova ◽  
Victoria Vyacheslavovna Tsypkina
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Term Operation ◽  
Asian Region ◽  
Hot Climate ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Cable Lines ◽  
The Impact

Reliability of cable lines in hot climate is determined by the climatic characteristics of cables and wires, which include: long-term and short-term heat resistance, cold resistance, moisture resistance, resistance to cyclic exposure to temperatures and solar radiation, ozone resistance, etc. This article considers the main impacts of environmental factors: high temperatures, solar radiation, which, as practice shows, lead to irreversible deterioration of the electrical and mechanical properties of cable products. The result of climatic impacts in the Central Asian region, in hot climate conditions, is the aging of both insulation and protective coverings, which leads to irreversible change in the mechanical and electrical properties of the used polymers due to the loss of elasticity of the extruded material and its subsequent cracking, turning into cracks. The assessment of the possibility of long-term operation of the used polymer was carried out according to the polyethylene oxidation period, which determines the time of natural preservation of various types of cables during the period of their operation. The research was carried out on samples of cables stored under a canopy in wooden boxes, protected from sunlight and precipitation, by measuring criterion parameters with strict compliance with the established norms. Thus, the proposed solution for increasing the reliability of cable lines consists of debugging the technological process of applying insulation and sheathing, in which the extrusion of the polymer mass is carried out by technique that minimizes the ingress of contamination. Review of the results showed that extrusion line improvement would provide possibility of increasing reliability in the operation of cable products under the impact of climatic factors of the Central Asian region due to the reduced aging of insulation.

The effect of differing drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisabeth Tschumi ◽  
Sebastian Lienert ◽  
Karin van der Wiel ◽  
Fortunat Joos ◽  
Jakob Zscheischler
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Carbon Dynamics ◽  
Occurrence Frequency ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Vegetation Composition ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Droughts and heatwaves have large impacts on the terrestrial carbon cycle. They lead to reductions in gross and net carbon uptake or anomalous carbon emissions by the vegetation to the atmosphere because of responses such as stomatal closure, hydraulic failure and vegetation mortality. The impacts are particularly strong when drought and heat occur at the same time. Climate model simulations diverge in their occurrence frequency of compound hot and dry events, and so far it is unclear how these differences affect carbon dynamics. Furthermore, it is unknown whether a higher frequency of droughts and heatwaves leads to long-term changes in carbon dynamics, and how such an increase might affect vegetation composition.</p><p>To study the immediate and long-term effects of varying signatures of droughts and heatwaves on carbon dynamics and vegetation composition, we employ the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPX-Bern (v1.4) under different drought-heat scenarios. We constructed six 100-yr long scenarios with different drought-heat signatures: a “control”, “no extremes”, “no compound extremes”, “heat only”, “drought only”, and “compound drought and heat” scenario. This was done by sampling daily climate variables from a 2000-year stationary simulation of a General Circulation Model (EC-Earth) for present-day climate conditions. Such a sampling ensures physically-consistent co-variability between climate variables in the climate forcing.</p><p>The scenarios differ little in their mean climate conditions (global mean land temperature differences of around 0.3°C and global mean land precipitation differences smaller than 7%), but vary strongly in the occurrence frequency of extremes such as droughts, heatwaves, and compound drought and heatwaves (up to five times more compound extremes in the “hotdry “scenario than in the “control”), allowing us to study the effects of the extremes on vegetation. Combined hot and dry extremes reduce all tree types and promotes grassland, while only hot extremes favours trees, especially in higher latitudes. No extremes are preferred by all tree types in LPX. Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) is expected to increase in most regions for the “noextremes” scenario, while the “hotdry” scenario is likely to reduce NEP.</p><p>Our results provide a better understanding of the links between hot and dry conditions and vegetation dynamics as well as carbon dynamics. These analyses may help to reduce uncertainties in carbon cycle projections, which is important for constraining carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. The presented scenarios can be used for a variety of purposes such as studying the effects of differing drought-heat signatures on crop yield or the occurrence of fire besides others.</p>

scholarly journals Statistical modelling of agrometeorological time series by exponential smoothing

2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Małgorzata Murat ◽  
Iwona Malinowska ◽  
Holger Hoffmann ◽  
Piotr Baranowski
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Autocorrelation Functions ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Meteorological time series are used in modelling agrophysical processes of the soil-plant-atmosphere system which determine plant growth and yield. Additionally, long-term meteorological series are used in climate change scenarios. Such studies often require forecasting or projection of meteorological variables, eg the projection of occurrence of the extreme events. The aim of the article was to determine the most suitable exponential smoothing models to generate forecast using data on air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation time series in Jokioinen (Finland), Dikopshof (Germany), Lleida (Spain), and Lublin (Poland). These series exhibit regular additive seasonality or non-seasonality without any trend, which is confirmed by their autocorrelation functions and partial autocorrelation functions. The most suitable models were indicated by the smallest mean absolute error and the smallest root mean squared error.

Demographic and climatic factors associated with dengue prevalence in a hyperendemic zone in Mexico: an empirical approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Espinoza-Gomez ◽  
Oscar Alberto Newton-Sanchez ◽  
Arnulfo Hernan Nava-Zavala ◽  
Maria G Zavala-Cerna ◽  
Fabian Rojas-Larios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Mexican Pacific ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Abstract Background Many models for predicting dengue epidemics use incidence and short-term changes in climate variables, however, studies in real-life scenarios for correlations of seroprevalence (SP) with long-term climate variables and with integration of socio-economic factors are scarce. Our objective was to analyse the combined correlation between socio-economic and climate variables with the SP of dengue in Mexico. Methods We performed a seroepidemiological ecological study on the Mexican Pacific coast. Dengue SP was estimated by the presence of immunoglobulin G antibodies in 1278 inhabitants. We implemented multiple correlations with socio-economic, climatic and topographic characteristics using logistic regression, generalized linear models and non-linear regressions. Results Dengue SP was 58%. The age-adjusted correlation was positive with the male sex, while a negative correlation was seen with socio-economic status (SES) and scholl level (SL). The annual temperature showed a positive correlation, while the altitude was negative. It should be noted that these correlations showed a marked ‘S’ shape in the non-linear model, suggesting three clearly defined scenarios for dengue risk. Conclusion Low SES and SL showed an unexpected paradoxical protective effect. Altitude above sea level and annual temperature are the main determinants for dengue in the long term. The identification of three clearly delineated scenarios for transmission could improve the accuracy of predictive models.

scholarly journals Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3885
Author(s):  
Christos Spyrou ◽  
Michael Loupis ◽  
Νikos Charizopoulos ◽  
Ilektra Apostolidou ◽  
Angeliki Mentzafou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Maximum Velocity ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Nature-based solutions (NBS) are being deployed around the world in order to address hydrometeorological hazards, including flooding, droughts, landslides and many others. The term refers to techniques inspired, supported and copied from nature, avoiding large constructions and other harmful interventions. In this work the development and evaluation of an NBS applied to the Spercheios river basin in Central Greece is presented. The river is susceptible to heavy rainfall and bank overflow, therefore the intervention selected is a natural water retention measure that aims to moderate the impact of flooding and drought in the area. After the deployment of the NBS, we examine the benefits under current and future climate conditions, using various climate change scenarios. Even though the NBS deployed is small compared to the rest of the river, its presence leads to a decrease in the maximum depth of flooding, maximum velocity and smaller flooded areas. Regarding the subsurface/groundwater storage under current and future climate change and weather conditions, the NBS construction seems to favor long-term groundwater recharge.

scholarly journals Impact of climate changes on water resources of Kuialnyk Liman catchment in scenario climate conditions

2017 ◽  
pp. 189-195
Author(s):  
N.S. Loboda ◽  
Y.V. Bozhok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Surrounding Areas

The actuality of research is conditioned by necessity of water regime determination under climate change for substantiate management its water resources in future. The purpose of investigation is evaluation of changes in water resources of Kuyalnyk Liman catchment under climate change. The main method of research is model "climate- runoff ", developed at the Odessa State Environmental University. Database of global climate change scenarios A1B (realized in regional climate model REMO) and A2 (developed under the regional climate model RCA) was used. The analysis of fluctuation regularity of climatic factors of the flow formation on the Kuyalnyk  Liman catchment and surrounding areas according to selected scenarios using  difference-integral curves are done. Changes in precipitation and the maximum possible evaporation for the 30-year intervals up to the year 2100 (scenario A1D) or up to the year 2050 (scenario A2) are analyzed. The main tendencies in water resources of Kuyalnyk Liman using the model "climate- runoff" in the future are established. It is shown that according to the scenario A1B by the middle of XXI century possible reduction of water resources in the Kuyalnyk Liman catchment is 40%. According to the scenario A2 water resources in northern part of the basin can grow on average by 20-30%, and in the southern part runoff can be reduced on average by 10%.

scholarly journals Climate Zoning Under Climate Change Scenarios In The Basin Of Lake Urmia And Vicinity Basins

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasoul Jani ◽  
Rahman Khatibi ◽  
Sina Sadeghfam ◽  
Elnaz Zarrinbal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Two Stages

Abstract A study of climate change scenarios is presented in this paper by projecting a set of recorded precipitation data into three future periods by statistical downscaling methods by employing LARS-WG using data from 7 synoptic stations. The study area covers the basin of Lake Urmia and its overlaps with two of its surrounding basins flowing to the Caspian Sea. The modelling is at two stages: Downscaling comprises: (i) use large-scale GCM models to provide climate variables (predictors); and (ii) downscale them to the local climatic variables for correlating with the observed timeseries (e.g. rainfall) for the period of T0: 1961-2001 - 40 years; Projecting comprises the derivation of precipitation values during the time periods of ; T1: 2011-2030), T2: 2046-2065 and T3: 2080-2099 at synoptic stations using three of standard scenarios: A1B, A2 and B1. These values are then used to map the climate zoning, which show: (i) climates at T1 are still similar to T0 and if any difference, precipitation increases; but changes are likely at T2 and T3 periods; (ii) the climate is moving toward a peakier regime at the northern region but drier towards the central region; and (iii) precipitation is likely to decrease in some of the zones. Thus, the results underpin the need for more responsive policymaking and should this not be realised in the next 5 to 10 years, the future seems bleak, as the loss of Lake Urmia and the depletion of aquifers are likely to be permanent, inflicting immigration from the region.

scholarly journals Generation of Synthetic Daily Weather for Climate Change Scenarios and Extreme Storm Intensification

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jurgen Garbrecht ◽  
X. C. Zhang ◽  
David Brown ◽  
Phillip Busteed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Generation Model ◽  
Traditional Role ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Daily Weather Data

Long-term simulations in watershed hydrology, soil and nutrient transport, and sustainability of agricultural production systems require long-term weather records that are often not available at the location of interest. Generation of synthetic daily weather data is a common approach to augment limited weather observations. Here a synthetic daily weather generation model (called SYNTOR) is described. SYNTOR fulfills the traditional role of generating alternative weather realizations that have statistical properties similar to those of the parent historical weather it is intended to simulate. In addition, it has the capability to simulate daily weather records for climate change scenarios and storm intensification due to climate change. The various model components are briefly summarized and an application is presented for semi-arid climate conditions in west-central Oklahoma. SYNTOR generated daily weather compared well with observed weather values. Climate change is simulated by adjusting weather generation parameters to reflect the changed mean monthly weather values of climate projections. Storm intensification is approximated by increasing the top 10 percentile of storm distribution by a predefined amount based on previous studies of trends in United States precipitation. Further evaluation of published storm intensification values and associated uncertainties and spatial variability is recommended.

scholarly journals Reconstructed and Projected U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption during 1896–2043

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 607-625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven A. Mauget
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Climate Variation ◽  
Temperature Cycle ◽  
Total Consumption ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Per Capita

AbstractUsing state-level monthly heating degree-day data, reconstructed per capita natural gas (NGr) consumption records for each state of the continental United States were calculated for 1895–2014 using linear regressions. The regressed monthly NGr values estimate the effects of twentieth- and early twenty-first-century climate variation on per capita natural gas usage, assuming a modern (1990–2013) consumption environment. Using these extended consumption records, the hypothetical effects of climate on past, current, and future natural gas (NG) use are estimated. By controlling for nonclimatic consumption effects, these extended reconstructions provide estimates of the sensitivity of NG consumption to historical climate variation, particularly long-term warming trends, occurring before the period of available consumption records. After detrending, the reconstructions are used to form improved estimates of interannual NG variation under current climate conditions. Given estimates of each state’s current consumption climatology and long-term trends in per capita consumption and current population trends, the net effect of warming and increasing population on future consumption is estimated. Significant long-term negative trends in per capita NG consumption are found in western and northeastern states and in Florida, while southeastern consumption effects reflect a multidecadal temperature cycle. Climate-related consumption effects found here are generally consistent with previous studies, with long-term trend effects limited to less than 12% and multidecadal regime effects limited to less than 9%. Given the stronger positive effects of increasing population on total state natural gas consumption, reduced per capita use associated with warming trends has a weak moderating effect on estimates of projected total consumption in 2043.

scholarly journals Climate windows of opportunity for plant expansion during the Phanerozoic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khushboo Gurung ◽  
Katie Field ◽  
Sarah Batterman ◽  
Yves Godderis ◽  
Yannick Donnadieu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Availability ◽  
Plant Biomass ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Windows Of Opportunity ◽  
Profound Influence ◽  
Plant Expansion ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Plants are likely to have had a profound influence on Earth’s long-term climate through their role in drawing down CO2 and emitting O2 into the atmosphere and their interactions with soils and minerals. Local climatic factors, including water availability, light, and temperature, play a key role in plant physiology and growth and have fluctuated substantially over geological time. However, the impact of these key climate variables on global plant biomass across the Phanerozoic have not yet been established.

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