A methodological proposal for the evaluation of potable water use risk

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 152-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Maiolo ◽  
Daniela Pantusa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potable Water ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Water Systems ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Number Of Factors

Water shortages are due to a number of factors such as pollution of sources, decrease of water availability, climate change, wrong use of water resources and the inaccurate management of water systems, including the physiological dysfunctions of waterwork facilities. In order to improve the planning of emergency management, forecasting and prevention of this type of risk, it is helpful to address the study of the risk of potable water use. Through the analysis of water systems in all its components, key factors have been identified that influence the incorrect operation of systems and it was possible to define the risk for potable water use in order to formulate an initial proposal for an estimation method.

scholarly journals Adaptation Effort and Performance of Water Management Strategies to Face Climate Change Impacts in Six Representative Basins of Southern Europe

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Sordo-Ward ◽  
Alfredo Granados ◽  
Ana Iglesias ◽  
Luis Garrote ◽  
María Bejarano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
River Network ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Irrigation Water Use

We evaluated different management alternatives to enhance potential water availability for agriculture under climate change scenarios. The management goal involved maximizing potential water availability, understood as the maximum volume of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, and taking into account specified reliability requirements. We focused on potential water availability for agriculture and assumed two types of demands: urban supply and irrigation. If potential water availability was not enough to satisfy all irrigation demands, management measures were applied aiming at achieving a compromise solution between resources and demands. The methodological approach consisted of estimation and comparison of runoff for current and future period under climate change effects, calculation of water availability changes due to changes in runoff, and evaluation of the adaptation choices that can modify the distribution of water availability, under climate change. Adaptation choices include modifying water allocation to agriculture, increasing the reservoir storage capacity, improving the efficiency of urban water use, and modifying water allocation to environmental flows. These management measures were evaluated at the desired points of the river network by applying the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model. We simulated the behavior of a set of reservoirs that supply water for a set of prioritized demands, complying with specified ecological flows and accounting for evaporation losses. We applied the methodology in six representative basins of southern Europe: Duero-Douro, Ebro, Guadalquivir, Po, Maritsa-Evros, and Struma-Strymon. While in some basins, such as the Ebro or Struma-Strymon, measures can significantly increase water availability and compensate for a fraction of water scarcity due to climate change, in other basins, like the Guadalquivir, water availability cannot be enhanced by applying the management measures analyzed, and irrigation water use will have to be reduced.

Water shortages constrain Iran's economic outlook

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Water Crisis ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Industrial Demand ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Iran water crisis. Significance Increasing demand and ineffective management, exacerbated by climate change, are imposing unsustainable strains on the country's freshwater resources. Water shortages have stoked local conflicts within Iran, and clashes with Afghan forces. Mounting water stresses risk undermining economic development, food security and, potentially, political order. Impacts Water scarcity will increase competition for water between agriculture, power generation, urban and industrial demand. Food security will be highly vulnerable to diminishing water availability, increasing import bills and fiscal burdens. Inter-provincial and international tensions over shared waters will rise. Mass population displacements from desertified regions could occur. The environmental sector will provide increasing opportunities for economic and diplomatic engagement with Iran as sanctions are lifted.

scholarly journals Assessment of impacts of climate change on surface water availability using coupled SWAT and WEAP models: case of upper Pangani River Basin, Tanzania

2018 ◽  
Vol 378 ◽  
pp. 23-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kishiwa ◽  
Joel Nobert ◽  
Victor Kongo ◽  
Preksedis Ndomba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Peak Flows ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study was designed to investigate the dynamics of current and future surface water availability for different water users in the upper Pangani River Basin under changing climate. A multi-tier modeling technique was used in the study, by coupling the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) models, to simulate streamflows under climate change and assess scenarios of future water availability to different socio-economic activities by year 2060. Six common Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from WCRP-CMIP3 with emissions Scenario A2 were selected. These are HadCM3, HadGEM1, ECHAM5, MIROC3.2MED, GFDLCM2.1 and CSIROMK3. They were downscaled by using LARS-WG to station scale. The SWAT model was calibrated with observed data and utilized the LARS-WG outputs to generate future streamflows before being used as input to WEAP model to assess future water availability to different socio-economic activities. GCMs results show future rainfall increase in upper Pangani River Basin between 16–18 % in 2050s relative to 1980–1999 periods. Temperature is projected to increase by an average of 2 ∘C in 2050s, relative to baseline period. Long-term mean streamflows is expected to increase by approximately 10 %. However, future peak flows are estimated to be lower than the prevailing average peak flows. Nevertheless, the overall annual water demand in Pangani basin will increase from 1879.73 Mm3 at present (2011) to 3249.69 Mm3 in the future (2060s), resulting to unmet demand of 1673.8 Mm3 (51.5 %). The impact of future shortage will be more severe in irrigation where 71.12 % of its future demand will be unmet. Future water demands of Hydropower and Livestock will be unmet by 27.47 and 1.41 % respectively. However, future domestic water use will have no shortage. This calls for planning of current and future surface water use in the upper Pangani River Basin.

scholarly journals Water allocation under climate change

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pilar Barría ◽  
Ignacio Barría Sandoval ◽  
Carlos Guzman ◽  
Cristián Chadwick ◽  
Camila Alvarez-Garreton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
North Central ◽  
The Future

Chile is positioned in the 20th rank of water availability per capita. Nonetheless, water security levels vary across the territory. Around 70% of the national population lives in arid and semiarid regions, where a persistent drought has been experienced over the last decade. This has led to water security problems including water shortages. The water allocation and trading system in Chile is based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms, where the volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from statistical analyses of historical streamflow records if available, or from empirical estimations if they are not. This computation of WURs does not consider the nonstationarity of hydrological processes nor climatic projections. This study presents the first large sample diagnosis of water allocation system in Chile under climate change scenarios. This is based on novel anthropic intervention indices (IAI), which were computed as the ratio between the total granted water volume to the water availability within 87 basins in north-central and southern Chile (30°S–42°S). The IAI were evaluated for the historical period (1979–2019) and under modeled-based climatic projections (2055–2080). According to these IAI levels, to date, there are 20 out of 87 overallocated basins, which under the assumption that no further WURs will be granted in the future, increases up to 25 basins for the 2055–2080 period. The results show that, to date most of north-central Chilean catchments already have a large anthropic intervention degree, and the increases for the future period occurs mostly in the southern region of the country (approximately 38°S), which has been considered as possible source of water for large water transfer projects (i.e., water roads). These indices and diagnosis are proposed as a tool to help policy makers to address water scarcity under climate change.

Integrating Climate and Socio-Economic Scenarios in a Hydrological Model for the Santa River Basin, Peru

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Teutsch ◽  
Faizan Anwar ◽  
Jochen Seidel ◽  
András Bárdossy ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Study Region ◽  
River Catchment

<p>High mountain regions, like the Andes, face various risks due to climate change. In the Santa River catchment in Peru which includes the glaciated Cordillera Blanca, water availability is threatened by many climatic and non-climatic impacts. The water resources in the catchment heavily rely on seasonal precipitation and during the dry season glacier melt water plays an important role. However, both, precipitation patterns and glacier extent are affected by climate change impacts. Additionally, socio-economic changes put further pressure on water resources and hence on water availability.</p> <p>Within the AguaFuturo Project we established a conceptual integrated water balance model based on a semi-distributed HBV model for the data scarce Santa River catchment. The hydrological model processes are extended by feedback loops for agricultural and domestic water use. The model runs on daily time scale and includes two hydrological response units. One includes the irrigated agricultural areas which are predominately located in the valley of the catchment; the other includes non-irrigated areas and domestic water use.</p> <p>To assess future water balance challenges we downscaled and disaggregated monthly CORDEX scenarios for 2020-2050 using information from the new Peruvian precipitation dataset PISCO (Peruvian Interpolated data of the SENAMHI’s Climatological and hydrological Observations) for simulations of future changes in hydro-climatology. In the model, these climate scenarios are combined with possible socio-economic scenarios which are translated into time series for domestic and agricultural water demand. The socio-economic scenarios are developed by using the Cross-Impact-Balance-Analysis (CIB), a method used for analyzing impact networks. Using CIB, the interrelations between 15 social, economic and policy descriptors were analyzed and as a result a total of 29 possible consistent scenarios were determined. For further analysis and validation of these scenarios a participatory process was included, involving local experts and stakeholders of the study region.</p> <p>The climate and socio-economic scenarios are independent and can be combined randomly. The uncertainties of the climatic and socio-economic scenarios are quantified by Monte Carlo simulations.</p> <p>The output of the model runs is an ensemble of possible future discharges of the Santa River, which can be further analyzed statistically to assess the range of the possible discharges. This evaluation provides an estimate of the probability of water shortages, especially with regard to conflict potential with hydropower production and the large scale irrigated agriculture areas in the adjacent coastal desert which also rely on water from the Santa River.</p>

The Absence of Water Conflicts in the Developing World

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clionadh Raleigh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Direct And Indirect Effects ◽  
Water Access ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Water Politics ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Water Issues

The debate concerning how water access, availability, and change will impact conflict is bolstered by growing evidence that some influence exists, however inconsistent. Clear conclusions are obscured by the variety of water issues in developing countries, the difference between direct and indirect effects on conflict, and the additional uncertainty of what future climate changes may do to water availability and rights. This chapter summarizes how the conflict literature has integrated water issues into analyses of violence. In contrast, water researchers are mainly concerned with how little and how poorly water resources are used and managed across Africa. Resource management and politics emerge as the most serious contributors to water stress. Initial conclusions suggest that climate change and associated water shortages are far less of a problem than access and scarcity, and that water politics is leading to new contests, possibly violent, embedded in patterns of marginalization, exclusion, and poor governance.

scholarly journals Effort and Performance of the Management of Water for Agriculture under Climate Change in Southern Europe

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Alvaro Sordo-Ward ◽  
Alfredo Granados ◽  
Ana Iglesias ◽  
Luis Garrote
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Irrigation Water Use ◽  
And Performance

We evaluate alternatives for the management of water for agriculture under climate change in six representative basins of Southern Europe: Duero-Douro, Ebro, Guadalquivir, Po, Maritsa-Evros, and Struma. Management objective is the maximization of water availability, understood as the maximum demand that can be satisfied with a given reliability. We focus on water availability for agriculture. For the sake of simplicity, we assume only two types of demands: urban and irrigation. Water is first allocated to urban demands following an established priority; the remaining resources are allocated to agriculture. If water availability does not satisfy all irrigation demands, management measures are applied with the goal of achieving a balance between resources and demands. We present an analysis of three possible management measures to face water scarcity in a long-term scenario: increasing reservoir storage, improving efficiency of urban water use and modifying water allocation to environmental flows. These management measures are globally evaluated for the selected basins in three representative climate scenarios, comparing their possible range and effectiveness. Although such measures can significantly increase water availability and counterbalance a portion of water scarcity due to climate change in some basins like Ebro or Struma, in other basins, such as Guadalquivir, water availability cannot be enhanced with management measures and irrigation water use must be reduced.

scholarly journals Assessment of Future Risks of Seasonal Municipal Water Shortages Across North America

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Janssen ◽  
Valentina Radić ◽  
Ali Ameli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Deep South ◽  
Urban Water ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Municipal Water ◽  
Urban Water Use ◽  
Projected Changes

While anthropogenic climate change poses a risk to freshwater resources across the globe through increases in evapotranspiration and temperature, it is essential to quantify the risks at local scales in response to projected trends in both freshwater supply and demand. In this study, we use empirical modeling to estimate the risks of municipal water shortages across North America by assessing the effects of climate change on streamflow and urban water demand. In addition, we aim to quantify uncertainties in both supply and demand predictions. Using streamflow data from both the US and Canada, we first cluster 4,290 streamflow gauges based on hydrograph similarity and geographical location. We develop a set of multiple linear regression (MLR) models, as a simplified analog to a distributed hydrological model, with minimum input data requirements. These MLR models are calibrated to simulate streamflow for the 1993–2012 period using the ERA5 climate reanalysis data. The models are then used to predict streamflow for the 2080–2099 period in response to two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from five global climate models. Another set of MLR models are constructed to project seasonal changes in municipal water consumption for the clustered domains. The models are calibrated against collected data on urban water use from 47 cities across the study region. For both streamflow and water use, we quantified uncertainties in our predictions using stochastic weather generators and Monte Carlo methods. Our study shows the strong predictive power of the MLR models for simulating both streamflow regimes (Kling-Gupta efficiency >0.5) and urban water use (correlation coefficient ≈0.7) in most regions. Under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario, the West Coast, the Southwest, and the Deep South (South-Central US and the Deep South) have the highest risk of municipal water shortages. Across the whole domain, the risk is the highest in the summer season when demand is high. We find that the uncertainty in projected changes to the water demand is substantially lower than the uncertainty in the projected changes to the supply. Regions with the highest risk of water shortages should begin to investigate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Dealing with variability in water availability: the case of the Verde Grande River basin, Brazil

2014 ◽  
Vol 364 ◽  
pp. 176-181
Author(s):  
B. Collischonn ◽  
A. V. Lopes ◽  
A. R. Pante
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Current Water ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
Semi Arid Region

Abstract. This paper presents a water resources management strategy developed by the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA) to cope with the conflicts between water users in the Verde Grande River basin, located at the southern border of the Brazilian semi-arid region. The basin is dominated by water-demanding fruit irrigation agriculture, which has grown significantly and without adequate water use control, over the last 30 years. The current water demand for irrigation exceeds water availability (understood as a 95 % percentile of the flow duration curve) in a ratio of three to one, meaning that downstream water users are experiencing more frequent water shortages than upstream ones. The management strategy implemented in 2008 has the objective of equalizing risk for all water users and consists of a set of rules designed to restrict water withdrawals according to current river water level (indicative of water availability) and water demand. Under that rule, larger farmers have proportionally larger reductions in water use, preserving small subsistence irrigators. Moreover, dry season streamflow is forecasted at strategic points by the end of every rainy season, providing evaluation of shortage risk. Thus, water users are informed about the forecasts and corresponding restrictions well in advance, allowing for anticipated planning of irrigated areas and practices. In order to enforce restriction rules, water meters were installed in all larger water users and inefficient farmers were obligated to improve their irrigation systems’ performance. Finally, increases in irrigated area are only allowed in the case of annual crops and during months of higher water availability (November to June). The strategy differs from convectional approached based only on water use priority and has been successful in dealing with natural variability of water availability, allowing more water to be used in wet years and managing risk in an isonomic manner during dry years.

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