scholarly journals Calibration of SWAT and three data-driven models for monthly stream flow simulation in Maharlu Lake Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Moazami Goudarzi ◽  
Amirpouya Sarraf ◽  
Hassan Ahmadi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Computational Intelligence ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Computational Intelligence Methods

Abstract In this study, the performance of SWAT hydrological model and three computational intelligence methods used to simulate river flow are investigated. After collecting the data required for all models used, the calibration and validation stages were performed. Using the SWAT model and three methods of the Extreme Machine Learning (EML), the Support Vector Regression (SVR), and the Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LSSVR), Maharlu Lake Basin stream flow was simulated and the results obtained at Shiraz station were used for this study. A noise reduction filter was employed to improve the results from the computational intelligence methods, and SUFI-2 algorithm was used to analyze the uncertainty of the SWAT model. Finally, in order to evaluate the models developed and the SWAT model, three statistics (RMSE), (R²), and (NS) coefficient were used. The results indicated that the SWAT model and the machine learning models were generally appropriate tools for daily flow modeling, but the LSSVR model showed less errors in both learning and testing, with the coefficients NS = 0.997 and R² = 0.997 in the calibration stage and NS = 0.994 and R² = 0.994 in the validation stage, which prove their better performance compared to the other methods and the SWAT model.

scholarly journals Stream flow simulation and verification in ungauged zones by coupling hydrological and hydrodynamic models: a case study of the Poyang Lake ungauged zone

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling Zhang ◽  
Jianzhong Lu ◽  
Xiaoling Chen ◽  
Sabine Sauvage ◽  
José-Miguel Sanchez Perez
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Stream Flows ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To solve the problem of estimating and verifying stream flows without direct observation data; we extend existing techniques for estimating stream flows in ungauged zones, coupling a hydrological model with a hydrodynamic model, using the Poyang Lake basin as a test case. We simulated stream flows in the land covered area of the ungauged zone by building a SWAT model for the entire catchment area covering gauged stations and the land covered area; then estimated stream flows in the water covered area of the ungauged zone using the simplified water balance equation. To verify the results, we built two scenarios (original and adjusted scenarios) using the Delft3D model. In this study, the original scenario did not take stream flows in the ungauged zone into consideration, unlike the adjusted scenario that accounts for the ungauged zones. Experimental results show there was a narrower discrepancy between the stream flows observed at the outlet of the lake and the simulated stream flows in adjusted scenario. Using our technique, we estimated that the ungauged zone of Poyang Lake produces stream flows of approximately 180 billion m3; representing about 11.4 % of the total inflow from the entire watershed. We also analysed the impact of the stream flows in ungauged zone on the water balance between inflow and outflow of the lake. These results, incorporating the estimated stream flow in ungauged zone, significantly improved the water balance as indicated by R2 with higher value and percent bias with lower value, as compared to the results when the stream flows in the ungauged zone were not taken into account, R2 with lower value and percent bias with higher value. The method can be extended to other lake, river, or ocean basins where observation data is unavailable.

scholarly journals Support Vector Regression Integrated with Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm for River Flow Forecasting in Lake Urmia Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Samadianfard ◽  
Salar Jarhan ◽  
Ely Salwana ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Shahaboddin Shamshirband ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Fruit Fly ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Fruit Fly Optimization ◽  
Flow Prediction

Advancement in river flow prediction systems can greatly empower the operational river management to make better decisions, practices, and policies. Machine learning methods recently have shown promising results in building accurate models for river flow prediction. This paper aims to identify models with higher accuracy, robustness, and generalization ability by inspecting the accuracy of a number of machine learning models. The proposed models for river flow include support vector regression (SVR), a hybrid of SVR with a fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) (so-called FOASVR), and an M5 model tree (M5). Additionally, the influence of periodicity (π) on the forecasting enactment was examined. To assess the performance of the proposed models, different statistical meters were implemented, including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (R), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Results showed that the FOASVR with RMSE (4.36 and 6.33 m3/s), MAE (2.40 and 3.71 m3/s) and R (0.82 and 0.81) values had the best performance in forecasting river flows at Babarud and Vaniar stations, respectively. Also, regarding BIC parameters, Qt−1 and π were selected as parsimonious inputs for predicting river flow one month ahead. Overall findings indicated that, although both the FOASVR and M5 predicted the river flows in suitable accordance with observed river flows, the performance of the FOASVR was moderately better than the M5 and periodicity noticeably increased the performance of the models; consequently, FOASVR can be suggested as the most accurate method for forecasting river flows.

IMPLEMENTASI SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE PADA PREDIKSI HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN (IHSG)

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-38
Author(s):  
Eka Patriya
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Support Vector

Saham adalah instrumen pasar keuangan yang banyak dipilih oleh investor sebagai alternatif sumber keuangan, akan tetapi saham yang diperjual belikan di pasar keuangan sering mengalami fluktuasi harga (naik dan turun) yang tinggi. Para investor berpeluang tidak hanya mendapat keuntungan, tetapi juga dapat mengalami kerugian di masa mendatang. Salah satu indikator yang perlu diperhatikan oleh investor dalam berinvestasi saham adalah pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Tindakan dalam menganalisa IHSG merupakan hal yang penting dilakukan oleh investor dengan tujuan untuk menemukan suatu trend atau pola yang mungkin berulang dari pergerakan harga saham masa lalu, sehingga dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi pergerakan harga saham di masa mendatang. Salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi pergerakan harga saham secara akurat adalah machine learning. Pada penelitian ini dibuat sebuah model prediksi harga penutupan IHSG menggunakan algoritma Support Vector Regression (SVR) yang menghasilkan kemampuan prediksi dan generalisasi yang baik dengan nilai RMSE training dan testing sebesar 14.334 dan 20.281, serta MAPE training dan testing sebesar 0.211% dan 0.251%. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat membantu para investor dalam mengambil keputusan untuk menyusun strategi investasi saham.

A Review on SWAT Model for Stream Flow Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 3792-3798
Author(s):  
Wen Ju Zhao ◽  
Wei Sun ◽  
Zong Li Li ◽  
Yan Wei Fan ◽  
Jian Shu Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Rs And Gis ◽  
Model Research ◽  
Gis And Rs

SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is one of distributed hydrological model, based on spatial data offered by GIS and RS. This article mainly introduces the SWAT model principle, structure, and it is the application of stream flow simulation in China and other countries, then points out the deficiency existing in the process of model research. In order to service in water resources management work better, experts and scholars further research the rate constant and uncertainty of the simplification of the model parameters, and the combination of RS and GIS to use, and hydrological scale problems.

Application of machine learning in predicting construction project profit in Ghana using Support Vector Regression Algorithm (SVRA)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Adinyira ◽  
Emmanuel Akoi-Gyebi Adjei ◽  
Kofi Agyekum ◽  
Frank Desmond Kofi Fugar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hyperparameter Selection

PurposeKnowledge of the effect of various cash-flow factors on expected project profit is important to effectively manage productivity on construction projects. This study was conducted to develop and test the sensitivity of a Machine Learning Support Vector Regression Algorithm (SVRA) to predict construction project profit in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe study relied on data from 150 institutional projects executed within the past five years (2014–2018) in developing the model. Eighty percent (80%) of the data from the 150 projects was used at hyperparameter selection and final training phases of the model development and the remaining 20% for model testing. Using MATLAB for Support Vector Regression, the parameters available for tuning were the epsilon values, the kernel scale, the box constraint and standardisations. The sensitivity index was computed to determine the degree to which the independent variables impact the dependent variable.FindingsThe developed model's predictions perfectly fitted the data and explained all the variability of the response data around its mean. Average predictive accuracy of 73.66% was achieved with all the variables on the different projects in validation. The developed SVR model was sensitive to labour and loan.Originality/valueThe developed SVRA combines variation, defective works and labour with other financial constraints, which have been the variables used in previous studies. It will aid contractors in predicting profit on completion at commencement and also provide information on the effect of changes to cash-flow factors on profit.

scholarly journals Long-term streamflow forecasting for the Cascade Reservoir System of Han River using SWAT with CFS output

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 655-671
Author(s):  
Tian Liu ◽  
Yuanfang Chen ◽  
Binquan Li ◽  
Yiming Hu ◽  
Hui Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Han River ◽  
Reservoir System

Abstract Due to the large uncertainties of long-term precipitation prediction and reservoir operation, it is difficult to forecast long-term streamflow for large basins with cascade reservoirs. In this paper, a framework coupling the original Climate Forecasting System (CFS) precipitation with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was proposed to forecast the nine-month streamflow for the Cascade Reservoir System of Han River (CRSHR) including Shiquan, Ankang and Danjiangkou reservoirs. First, CFS precipitation was tested against the observation and post-processed through two machine learning algorithms, random forest and support vector regression. Results showed the correlation coefficients between the monthly areal CFS precipitation (post-processed) and observation were 0.91–0.96, confirming that CFS precipitation post-processing using machine learning was not affected by the extended forecast period. Additionally, two precipitation spatio-temporal distribution models, original CFS and similar historical observation, were adopted to disaggregate the processed monthly areal CFS precipitation to daily subbasin-scale precipitation. Based on the reservoir restoring flow, the regional SWAT was calibrated for CRSHR. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies for three reservoirs flow simulation were 0.86, 0.88 and 0.84, respectively, meeting the accuracy requirement. The experimental forecast showed that for three reservoirs, long-term streamflow forecast with similar historical observed distribution was more accurate than that with original CFS.

scholarly journals Support Vector Regression Method for Regional Economic Mid- and Long-Term Predictions Based on Wireless Network Communication

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Lingyu Dong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Communication Network ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Wireless Network ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Network Communication ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Network Coverage ◽  
Data Packets

In recent years, wireless sensor network technology has continued to develop, and it has become one of the research hotspots in the information field. People have higher and higher requirements for the communication rate and network coverage of the communication network, which also makes the problems of limited wireless mobile communication network coverage and insufficient wireless resource utilization efficiency become increasingly prominent. This article is aimed at studying a support vector regression method for long-term prediction in the context of wireless network communication and applying the method to regional economy. This article uses the contrast experiment method and the space occupancy rate algorithm, combined with the vector regression algorithm of machine learning. Research on the laws of machine learning under the premise of less sample data solves the problem of the lack of a unified framework that can be referred to in machine learning with limited samples. The experimental results show that the distance between AP1 and AP2 is 0.4 m, and the distance between AP2 and Client2 is 0.6 m. When BPSK is used for OFDM modulation, 2500 MHz is used as the USRP center frequency, and 0.5 MHz is used as the USRP bandwidth; AP1 can send data packets. The length is 100 bytes, the number of sent data packets is 100, the gain of Client2 is 0-38, the receiving gain of AP2 is 0, and the receiving gain of AP1 is 19. The support vector regression method based on wireless network communication for regional economic mid- and long-term predictions was completed well.

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