scholarly journals Risk Factors of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Global Epidemiological Study

JMIRx Med ◽  
10.2196/28843 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. e28843 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Alphonse Barletta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Physiological Basis ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Clinical Observations ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cross Correlations

Background Since the first recognition of the pandemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and before substantial case fatality data were available worldwide, public health agencies warned the public about the increased dangers of SARS-CoV-2 to persons with a variety of underlying physical conditions, many of which are more commonly found in persons over 50 years of age or in certain ethnic groups. Objective To investigate the statistical rather than the physiological basis in support of the abovementioned warnings, this study examines correlations globally on a nation-by-nation basis between the statistical data concerning COVID-19 fatalities and the statistics of potential comorbidities that may influence the severity of infection. Methods This study considers the statistics describing the populations of the 99 countries with the greatest numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections at the time of the data cutoff. As national compilations of direct measures of immune system strength are not publicly available, the frequency of fatalities in those countries due to a variety of serious diseases is used as a proxy for the susceptibility of those populations to those same diseases. Results The analysis produces plots and calculations of correlations and cross-correlations of COVID-19 case fatality rates and the risks of other potential cofactors. It exposes some reasons that may underlie the degree to which advanced age increases the risk of mortality of infection with SARS-CoV-2. In contrast with the strong influences of comorbidities on the seriousness of consequences of influenzas and their associated pneumonias, the correlations of the same set of risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 infection are considerably weaker. The general characteristics of the observed correlations strengthened through 3 cycles of analysis, starting in September 2020. The strongest correlations were with chronic kidney disease and coronary disease (approximately 0.28 and 0.20, respectively). Conclusions This study confirms early clinical observations that infection with SARS-CoV-2 presents an increased risk to persons over the age of 65 years. It does not support the suggestions presented by government agencies early in the pandemic that the risks are much greater for persons with certain common potential comorbidities.

scholarly journals Risk Factors of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Global Epidemiological Study (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Alphonse Barletta
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Physiological Basis ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Clinical Observations ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cross Correlations

BACKGROUND Since the first recognition of the pandemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and before substantial case fatality data were available worldwide, public health agencies warned the public about the increased dangers of SARS-CoV-2 to persons with a variety of underlying physical conditions, many of which are more commonly found in persons over 50 years of age or in certain ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE To investigate the statistical rather than the physiological basis in support of the abovementioned warnings, this study examines correlations globally on a nation-by-nation basis between the statistical data concerning COVID-19 fatalities and the statistics of potential comorbidities that may influence the severity of infection. METHODS This study considers the statistics describing the populations of the 99 countries with the greatest numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections at the time of the data cutoff. As national compilations of direct measures of immune system strength are not publicly available, the frequency of fatalities in those countries due to a variety of serious diseases is used as a proxy for the susceptibility of those populations to those same diseases. RESULTS The analysis produces plots and calculations of correlations and cross-correlations of COVID-19 case fatality rates and the risks of other potential cofactors. It exposes some reasons that may underlie the degree to which advanced age increases the risk of mortality of infection with SARS-CoV-2. In contrast with the strong influences of comorbidities on the seriousness of consequences of influenzas and their associated pneumonias, the correlations of the same set of risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 infection are considerably weaker. The general characteristics of the observed correlations strengthened through 3 cycles of analysis, starting in September 2020. The strongest correlations were with chronic kidney disease and coronary disease (approximately 0.28 and 0.20, respectively). CONCLUSIONS This study confirms early clinical observations that infection with SARS-CoV-2 presents an increased risk to persons over the age of 65 years. It does not support the suggestions presented by government agencies early in the pandemic that the risks are much greater for persons with certain common potential comorbidities.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Risk Factors of SARS-CoV-2 Infections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Barletta
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Advanced Age ◽  
Physiological Basis ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Epidemiological Risk

AbstractSince the first governmental recognitions of the pandemic characteristic of the SARS-CoV-2 infections, public health agencies have warned about the dangers of the virus to persons with a variety of underlying physical conditions, many of which are more commonly found in persons older than 50 years old. To investigate the statistical, rather than physiological basis of such warnings, this study examines correlations on a nation-by-nation basis between the statistical data concerning covid-19 fatalities among the populations of the ninety-nine countries with the greatest number of SARS-CoV-2 infections plus the statistics of potential co-morbidities that may influence the severity of the infections. It examines reasons that may underlie of the degree to which advanced age increases the risk of mortality of an infection and contrasts the risk factors of SARS-Cov-2 infections with those of influenzas and their associated pneumonias.

scholarly journals Workload-indexed blood pressure response is superior to peak systolic blood pressure in predicting all-cause mortality

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 978-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristofer Hedman ◽  
Nicholas Cauwenberghs ◽  
Jeffrey W Christle ◽  
Tatiana Kuznetsova ◽  
Francois Haddad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Systolic Blood Pressure ◽  
Exercise Testing ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Metabolic Equivalents ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Clinical Exercise Testing

Aims The association between peak systolic blood pressure (SBP) during exercise testing and outcome remains controversial, possibly due to the confounding effect of external workload (metabolic equivalents of task (METs)) on peak SBP as well as on survival. Indexing the increase in SBP to the increase in workload (SBP/MET-slope) could provide a more clinically relevant measure of the SBP response to exercise. We aimed to characterize the SBP/MET-slope in a large cohort referred for clinical exercise testing and to determine its relation to all-cause mortality. Methods and results Survival status for male Veterans who underwent a maximal treadmill exercise test between the years 1987 and 2007 were retrieved in 2018. We defined a subgroup of non-smoking 10-year survivors with fewer risk factors as a lower-risk reference group. Survival analyses for all-cause mortality were performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs (95% confidence interval)) adjusted for baseline age, test year, cardiovascular risk factors, medications and comorbidities. A total of 7542 subjects were followed over 18.4 (interquartile range 16.3) years. In lower-risk subjects ( n = 709), the median (95th percentile) of the SBP/MET-slope was 4.9 (10.0) mmHg/MET. Lower peak SBP (<210 mmHg) and higher SBP/MET-slope (>10 mmHg/MET) were both associated with 20% higher mortality (adjusted HRs 1.20 (1.08–1.32) and 1.20 (1.10–1.31), respectively). In subjects with high fitness, a SBP/MET-slope > 6.2 mmHg/MET was associated with a 27% higher risk of mortality (adjusted HR 1.27 (1.12–1.45)). Conclusion In contrast to peak SBP, having a higher SBP/MET-slope was associated with increased risk of mortality. This simple, novel metric can be considered in clinical exercise testing reports.

scholarly journals Variations in case fatality and fatality risk factors of meningococcal disease in Western Norway, 1985–2002

2005 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. SMITH ◽  
A. T. BJØRNEVIK ◽  
I. M. B. AUGLAND ◽  
A. BERSTAD ◽  
T. WENTZEL-LARSEN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Skin Rash ◽  
Meningococcal Disease ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Multivariate Analyses ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Public ◽  
Admission Time ◽  
Meningococcal Septicaemia

SUMMARYIn a retrospective epidemiological study, 293 meningococcal disease patients hospitalized during 1985–2002, were examined for fatality and risk factors related to death. The overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 8·2%, but increased from 4% during 1985–1993 to 17% during 1994–2002. The latter 9-year period was characterized by more serogroup C infections and more patients with thrombocytopenia on admission to hospital. All patients categorized as meningitis on admission survived. Of the 24 patients who died, 21 had meningococcal skin rash on admission, 23 had an onset to admission time of ⩽24 h, and 16 had severe septicaemia with hypotension and/or ecchymoses without meningitis on admission. By multivariate analyses, a short onset to admission time, >50 petechiae, thrombocytopenia and severe septicaemia on admission were associated with fatality. More lives could be saved through earlier admission to hospital. This can be achieved through more information to the public about the early signs of meningococcal septicaemia, with the recommendation to look for skin rash in patients with acute fever during the first day and night.

Lower serum retinoic acid level for prediction of higher risk of mortality in ischemic stroke

Neurology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 92 (15) ◽  
pp. e1678-e1687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Jun Tu ◽  
Han-Cheng Qiu ◽  
Yiqun Zhang ◽  
Jian-lei Cao ◽  
Hong Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Retinoic Acid ◽  
Prognostic Significance ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Net Reclassification Improvement ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Cvd Mortality

ObjectiveTo explore the association between serum retinoic acid (RA) level in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and mortality risk in the 6 months after admission.MethodsFrom January 2015 through December 2016, patients admitted to 3 stroke centers in China for first-ever AIS were screened. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality or cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the 6 months after admission. The significance of serum RA level, NIH Stroke Scale score, and established risk factors in predicting mortality were determined. The integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) statistics were applied in statistical analysis.ResultsOf the 1,530 patients enrolled, 325 died within 6 months of admission, with an all-cause mortality of 21.2% and CVD-related mortality of 13.1%. In multivariable analysis, RA levels were expressed as quartiles with the clinical variables. The results of the second to fourth quartiles (Q2–Q4) were compared with the first quartile (Q1); RA levels showed prognostic significance, with decreased all-cause and CVD mortality of 55% and 63%, respectively. After RA was added to the existing risk factors, all-cause mortality could be better reclassified, in association with only the NRI statistic (p = 0.005); CVD mortality could be better reclassified with significance, in association with both the IDI and NRI statistics (p < 0.01).ConclusionsLow circulating levels of RA were associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality in a cohort of patients with first-incidence AIS, indicating that RA level could be a predictor independent of established conventional risk factors.

scholarly journals Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of COVID-19–Infected Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Han Han ◽  
Tianhui He ◽  
Kristen E Labbe ◽  
Adrian V Hernandez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Patients With Cancer ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Previous studies have indicated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with cancer have a high fatality rate. Methods We conducted a systematic review of studies that reported fatalities in COVID-19 patients with cancer. A comprehensive meta-analysis that assessed the overall case fatality rate and associated risk factors was performed. Using individual patient data, univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for each variable with outcomes. Results We included 15 studies with 3019 patients, of which 1628 were men; 41.0% were from the United Kingdom and Europe, followed by the United States and Canada (35.7%), and Asia (China, 23.3%). The overall case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with cancer measured 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.3% to 28.0%). Univariate analysis revealed age (OR = 3.57, 95% CI = 1.80 to 7.06), male sex (OR = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.13), and comorbidity (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.04 to 3.85) were associated with increased risk of severe events (defined as the individuals being admitted to the intensive care unit, or requiring invasive ventilation, or death). In multivariable analysis, only age greater than 65 years (OR = 3.16, 95% CI = 1.45 to 6.88) and being male (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.07 to 4.87) were associated with increased risk of severe events. Conclusions Our analysis demonstrated that COVID-19 patients with cancer have a higher fatality rate compared with that of COVID-19 patients without cancer. Age and sex appear to be risk factors associated with a poorer prognosis.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Inappropriate Empiric Antibiotic Therapy for Bacteremia Based on Discordant In vitro Susceptibilities: Risk factors and Taxon-level Variation in Burden and Outcome in 156 US hospitals, 2000–2014

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S13-S14
Author(s):  
Sameer S Kadri ◽  
Yi Ling Lai ◽  
Emily Ricotta ◽  
Jeffrey Strich ◽  
Ahmed Babiker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Antibiotic Therapy ◽  
Empiric Antibiotic Therapy ◽  
In Vitro Susceptibility ◽  
Gram Negative ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Empiric Antibiotic

Abstract Background Discordance between in vitro susceptibility and empiric antibiotic therapy is inextricably linked to antibiotic resistance and decreased survival in bloodstream infections (BSI). However, its prevalence, patient- and hospital-level risk factors, and impact on outcome in a large cohort and across different pathogens remain unclear. Methods We examined in vitro susceptibility interpretations for bacterial BSI and corresponding antibiotic therapy among inpatient encounters across 156 hospitals from 2000 to 2014 in the Cerner Healthfacts database. Discordance was defined as nonsusceptibility to initial therapy administered from 2 days before pathogen isolation to 1 day before final susceptibility reporting. Discordance prevalence was compared across taxa; risk factors and its association with in-hospital mortality were evaluated by logistic regression. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated for pathogen-, patient- and facility-level factors. Results Of 33,161 unique encounters with BSIs, 4,219 (13%) at 123 hospitals met criteria for discordant antibiotic therapy, ranging from 3% for pneumococci to 55% for E. faecium. Discordance was higher in recent years (2010–2014 vs. 2005–2009) and was associated with older age, lower baseline SOFA score, urinary (vs. abdominal) source and hospital-onset BSI, as well as ≥500-bed, Midwestern, non-teaching, and rural hospitals. Discordant antibiotic therapy increased the risk of death [aOR = 1.3 [95% CI 1.1–1.4]). Among Gram-negative taxa, discordant therapy increased risk of mortality associated with Enterobacteriaceae (aOR = 1.3 [1.0–1.6]) and non-fermenters (aOR = 1.7 [1.1–2.5]). Among Gram-positive taxa, risk of mortality from discordant therapy was significantly higher for S. aureus (aOR = 1.3 [1.1–1.6]) but unchanged for streptococcal or enterococcal BSIs. Conclusion The prevalence of discordant antibiotic therapy displayed extensive taxon-level variability and was associated with patient and institutional factors. Discordance detrimentally impacted survival in Gram-negative and S. aureus BSIs. Understanding reasons behind observed differences in discordance risk and their impact on outcomes could inform stewardship efforts and guidelines for empiric therapy in sepsis. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Association between metabolic risk markers, body composition and different manifestations of strength in young adults

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 565-570
Author(s):  
Jairo Alejandro Fernández-Ortega ◽  
Luz Amelia Hoyos-Cuartas ◽  
Flor Alba Ruiz-Arias
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Body Mass Index ◽  
Muscular Strength ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
Lower Limbs ◽  
Metabolic Risk ◽  
Risk Markers ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Low Levels

Introduction: For decades, low levels of muscle strength (MS) have been associated with an increased risk of mortality from all causes.Objective: To identify the correlation between values of different manifestations of MS and metabolic risk markers (MRM) in young university students.Materials and methods: The study included 50 participants (37 men, 13 women), aged between 19 and 23 years. The grip strength of both hands and the muscular strength of upper and lower limbs were evaluated, as well as height, weight, body mass index (BMI), skin folds, HDL, cholesterol and triglycerides.Results: No significant associations between MRM and the different manifestations of MS were found.Conclusion: MS and MRM are separately associated with mortality risk factors and with suffering from cardiovascular diseases

Morbidity, mortality and spatial distribution of meningococcal disease, 1974–2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (11) ◽  
pp. 1631-1640 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. HOWITZ ◽  
L. LAMBERTSEN ◽  
J. B. SIMONSEN ◽  
J. J. CHRISTENSEN ◽  
K. MØLBAK
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Meningococcal Disease ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
High Age

SUMMARYTo identify determinants for mortality and sequelae and to analyse the spatial distribution of meningococcal disease, we linked four national Danish registries. In the period 1974–2007, 5924 cases of meningococcal disease were registered. Our analysis confirms known risk factors for a fatal meningococcal disease outcome, i.e. septicaemia and high age (>50 years). The overall case-fatality rate was 7·6%; two phenotypes were found to be associated with increased risk of death; C:2a:P1.2,5 and B:15:P1.7,16. B:15:P1.7,16 was also associated with excess risk of perceptive hearing loss. The incidence rates of meningococcal disease were comparable between densely and less densely populated areas, but patients living further from a hospital were at significantly higher risk of dying from the infection. To improve control of meningococcal disease, it is important to understand the epidemiology and pathogenicity of virulent ‘successful clones’, such as C:2a:P1.2,5 and B:15:P1.7,16, and, eventually, to develop vaccines against serogroup B.

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