scholarly journals VOLUME AND HEAT TRANSPORTS ANALYSIS IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC BASIN RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lívia Maria Barbosa Sancho ◽  
Luiz Paulo De Freitas Assad ◽  
Luiz Landau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Zonal Section ◽  
Advective Heat Transport

ABSTRACT. This study evaluates how climate change might affect advective heat and volume transports in the South Atlantic Basin based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1FI and B1 climate change scenarios projections. Using the Climatic Model 2.1 (CM2.1) results that were developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), integrated on the water column, analyses were conducted through two meridional sections and one zonal section of the study area (between 25◦S-70◦S and 70◦W-20◦E). The annual mean time series were analyzed using historical 100-year climate change scenarios. The analyses of the climate change experiment parameters were compared with those of the H2 climate scenario. The volume transport (VT) through the water column weakened of about 5% in average and the advective heat transport (HT) increased of about 22% at the Drake and Africa-Antarctic (AF-AA) passages at the end of the experiments. For the zonal section at 25◦S, direction oscillations were observed in the integrated VT through the water column due to velocity intensity variations of the water masses and a decrease of about 22% in the HT was observed. Thus, it was observed a decrease in the water and heat supplies at 25◦S due to the Drake and AF-AA VT behavior, which may alter deep circulation patterns.Keywords: water column analysis, advective heat transport, flow direction, Drake Passage, Africa-Antarctic passage.RESUMO. Baseado nas projeções dos cenários de mudanças climáticas A1FI e B1 do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanc¸as Climáticas (IPCC), esse estudo avalia como as mudanças climáticas podem impactar os transportes advectivos de calor e volume na bacia do Atlântico Sul. Através de resultados gerados pelo Modelo Climático 2.1 (CM2.1) desenvolvido pelo Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), foram feitas análises através de duas seções meridionais e uma seção zonal na área de estudo (entre 25◦S-70◦S e 70◦W-20◦E) integradas na coluna d’água. Foram analisados campos prognósticos médios anuais referentes a experimentos com 100 anos de duração. As análises dos parâmetros dos experimentos de mudanças climáticas foram realizadas em comparação com o experimento clima (H2). O transporte de volume (TV) integrado na coluna d’água enfraqueceu aproximadamente 5%, enquanto o transporte advectivo de calor (TC) aumentou em torno de 22% no Drake e na Passagem África-Antártida (AF-AA) ao final dos experimentos. Para a seção em 25◦S, foram observadas oscilações de direção do fluxo devido a variações na intensidade das velocidades das massas d’água com um enfraquecimento médio de 22% para o TC. Adicionalmente, foi observada uma diminuição no suprimento de água em 25◦S devido ao comportamento do TV das demais seções, o que pode alterar os padrões de circulação profunda.Palavras-chave: análise na coluna d’água, transporte advectivo de calor, direção do fluxo, Passagem de Drake, passagem África-Antártida.

scholarly journals Effects of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 4565-4575 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Sanz-Lázaro ◽  
T. Valdemarsen ◽  
M. Holmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Nutrient Cycling ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Nutrient Release ◽  
Organic Pollution ◽  
Coastal Sediments ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems. In these systems sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient release from coastal sediments to the water column in a mesocosm experiment. PO43− release rates from sediments followed the same trends as organic matter mineralization rates, increased linearly with temperature and were significantly higher under organic pollution than under nonpolluted conditions. NH4+ release only increased significantly when the temperature rise was above 6 °C, and it was significantly higher in organic polluted compared to nonpolluted sediments. Nutrient release to the water column was only a fraction from the mineralized organic matter, suggesting PO43− retention and NH4+ oxidation in the sediment. Bioturbation and bioirrigation appeared to be key processes responsible for this behavior. Considering that the primary production of most marine basins is N-limited, the excess release of NH4+ at a temperature rise > 6 °C could enhance water column primary productivity, which may lead to the deterioration of the environmental quality. Climate change effects are expected to be accelerated in areas affected by organic pollution.

scholarly journals Retrieving the global distribution of the threshold of wind erosion from satellite data and implementing it into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land–atmosphere model (GFDL AM4.0/LM4.0)

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Pu ◽  
Paul Ginoux ◽  
Huan Guo ◽  
N. Christina Hsu ◽  
John Kimball ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Wind Erosion ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Erosion Threshold ◽  
Atmosphere Model ◽  
Dust Events

Abstract. Dust emission is initiated when surface wind velocities exceed the threshold of wind erosion. Many dust models used constant threshold values globally. Here we use satellite products to characterize the frequency of dust events and land surface properties. By matching this frequency derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol products with surface winds, we are able to retrieve a climatological monthly global distribution of the wind erosion threshold (Vthreshold) over dry and sparsely vegetated surfaces. This monthly two-dimensional threshold velocity is then implemented into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled land–atmosphere model (AM4.0/LM4.0). It is found that the climatology of dust optical depth (DOD) and total aerosol optical depth, surface PM10 dust concentrations, and the seasonal cycle of DOD are better captured over the “dust belt” (i.e., northern Africa and the Middle East) by simulations with the new wind erosion threshold than those using the default globally constant threshold. The most significant improvement is the frequency distribution of dust events, which is generally ignored in model evaluation. By using monthly rather than annual mean Vthreshold, all comparisons with observations are further improved. The monthly global threshold of wind erosion can be retrieved under different spatial resolutions to match the resolution of dust models and thus can help improve the simulations of dust climatology and seasonal cycles as well as dust forecasting.

scholarly journals Decreased Snow Cover Stimulates Under-Ice Primary Producers but Impairs Methanotrophic Capacity

mSphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarahi L. Garcia ◽  
Anna J. Szekely ◽  
Christoffer Bergvall ◽  
Martha Schattenhofer ◽  
Sari Peura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Relative Abundance ◽  
Heterotrophic Bacteria ◽  
Methane Emissions ◽  
Boreal Lakes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Primary Producers ◽  
Microbial Composition

ABSTRACT Climate change scenarios anticipate decreased spring snow cover in boreal and subarctic regions. Forest lakes are abundant in these regions and substantial contributors of methane emissions. To investigate the effect of reduced snow cover, we experimentally removed snow from an anoxic frozen lake. We observed that the removal of snow increased light penetration through the ice, increasing water temperature and modifying microbial composition in the different depths. Chlorophyll a and b concentrations increased in the upper water column, suggesting activation of algal primary producers. At the same time, Chlorobiaceae, one of the key photosynthetic bacterial families in anoxic lakes, shifted to lower depths. Moreover, a decrease in the relative abundance of methanotrophs within the bacterial family Methylococcaceae was detected, concurrent with an increase in methane concentration in the water column. These results indicate that decreased snow cover impacts both primary production and methane production and/or consumption, which may ultimately lead to increased methane emissions after spring ice off. IMPORTANCE Small lakes are an important source of greenhouse gases in the boreal zone. These lakes are severely impacted by the winter season, when ice and snow cover obstruct gas exchange between the lake and the atmosphere and diminish light availability in the water column. Currently, climate change is resulting in reduced spring snow cover. A short-term removal of the snow from the ice stimulated algal primary producers and subsequently heterotrophic bacteria. Concurrently, the relative abundance of methanotrophic bacteria decreased and methane concentrations increased. Our results increase the general knowledge of microbial life under ice and, specifically, the understanding of the potential impact of climate change on boreal lakes.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

The Role of Mesoscale Eddies in the Rectification of the Southern Ocean Response to Climate Change

2010 ◽  
Vol 40 (7) ◽  
pp. 1539-1557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Farneti ◽  
Thomas L. Delworth ◽  
Anthony J. Rosati ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies ◽  
Fanrong Zeng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Residual Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Changes

Abstract Simulations from a fine-resolution global coupled model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.4 (CM2.4), are presented, and the results are compared with a coarse version of the same coupled model, CM2.1, under idealized climate change scenarios. A particular focus is given to the dynamical response of the Southern Ocean and the role played by the eddies—parameterized or permitted—in setting the residual circulation and meridional density structure. Compared to the case in which eddies are parameterized and consistent with recent observational and idealized modeling studies, the eddy-permitting integrations of CM2.4 show that eddy activity is greatly energized with increasing mechanical and buoyancy forcings, buffering the ocean to atmospheric changes, and the magnitude of the residual oceanic circulation response is thus greatly reduced. Although compensation is far from being perfect, changes in poleward eddy fluxes partially compensate for the enhanced equatorward Ekman transport, leading to weak modifications in local isopycnal slopes, transport by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and overturning circulation. Since the presence of active ocean eddy dynamics buffers the oceanic response to atmospheric changes, the associated atmospheric response to those reduced ocean changes is also weakened. Further, it is hypothesized that present numerical approaches for the parameterization of eddy-induced transports could be too restrictive and prevent coarse-resolution models from faithfully representing the eddy response to variability and change in the forcing fields.

Dynamic Radiative–Convective Equilibria Using GCM Column Physics

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 228-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
Bruce Wyman
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Homogeneous Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics ◽  
Convection Scheme ◽  
Cloud Feedbacks ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Convective Organization

Abstract The behavior of a GCM column physics package in a nonrotating, doubly periodic, homogeneous setting with prescribed SSTs is examined. This radiative–convective framework is proposed as a useful tool for studying some of the interactions between convection and larger-scale dynamics and the effects of differing modeling assumptions on convective organization and cloud feedbacks. For the column physics utilized here, from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2 model, many of the properties of the homogeneous, nonrotating model are closely tied to the fraction of precipitation that is large-scale, rather than convective. Significant large-scale precipitation appears above a critical temperature and then increases with further increases in temperature. The amount of large-scale precipitation is a function of horizontal resolution and can also be controlled by modifying the convection scheme, as is illustrated here by modifying assumptions concerning entrainment into convective plumes. Significant similarities are found between the behavior of the homogeneous model and that of the Tropics of the parent GCM when ocean temperatures are increased and when the convection scheme is modified.

scholarly journals Effects of global climate change and organic pollution on nutrient cycling in marine sediments

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-49
Author(s):  
C. Sanz-Lázaro ◽  
T. Valdemarsen ◽  
M. Holmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Nutrient Cycling ◽  
Water Column ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Nutrient Release ◽  
Organic Pollution ◽  
Coastal Sediments ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract. Increasing ocean temperature due to climate change is an important anthropogenic driver of ecological change in coastal systems, where sediments play a major role in nutrient cycling. Our ability to predict ecological consequences of climate change is enhanced by simulating real scenarios especially when the interactions among drivers may not be just additive. Based on predicted climate change scenarios, we tested the effect of temperature and organic pollution on nutrient release from coastal sediments to the water column in a mesocosm experiment. PO43− release rates from sediments followed the same trends as organic matter mineralization rates, and increased linearly with temperature and were significantly higher under organic pollution than under non-polluted conditions. NH4+ release only increased significantly when the temperature rise was above 6 °C, and was significantly higher in organic polluted compared to non-polluted sediments. Nutrient release to the water column was only a fraction from the mineralized organic matter, suggesting PO43− retention and NH4+ oxidation in the sediment. Bioturbation and bioirrigation appeared to be key processes responsible of this behaviour. Considering that the primary production of most marine basins is N-limited, the excess release of NH4+ at temperature rise >6 ° could enhance water column primary productivity, which may lead to the deterioration of the environmental quality. Climate change effects are expected to be accelerated in areas affected by organic pollution.

scholarly journals Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 5686-5699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isaac M. Held ◽  
Brian J. Soden
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Transport ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mass Fluxes ◽  
Temporal Variance ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Surprising Finding

Abstract Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lower-tropospheric water vapor.

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