scholarly journals Fundamental uncertainty and Keynes' probability theory

2007 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-55
Author(s):  
Ognjen Radonjic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Theoretical Assumption ◽  
Individual Agent ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Fundamental Uncertainty ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
And Behavior

Within economic system agents daily make decisions. Those decisions are based on their expectations regarding future. Therefore, theoretical assumption about what do rational decision-makers really know about future and could agents make relatively reliable forecasts has colossal importance. Namely this assumption critically determines theoretical modeling of decision-making process. In economic theory we can make distinction between two opposite and irreconcilable standpoints on this issue. According to proponents of the Subjective Probability and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis future can be predicted exactly, that is, agents are able to mathematically calculate future precisely and to express it in terms of numbers. Consistently behavior of individual agent and society in aggregate can be predicted with great precision. On the other hand, Keynes, first economist who made clear distinction between risk and uncertainty, argued that past experiences and statistical analysis of past data were not reliable guide to future and that behavior of individual agents and society in aggregate could not be neither calculated exactly nor precisely predicted. Consequently, theoretical implications regarding decision-making and behavior of aggregate economic system of the two opposite standpoints are completely different.

scholarly journals Top Management Teams

2021 ◽  
pp. 355-368
Author(s):  
Margarethe F. Wiersema ◽  
Joshua S. Hernsberger
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Top Management Teams ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Top Management ◽  
State Of Research ◽  
Executive Teams ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
And Behavior

Scholarly interest in the firm’s top management is an important research topic given their influence on strategic decision-making and firm outcomes, as well as increased media attention and activist investor scrutiny of the firm’s executives. The past experiences, knowledge, and skills of the firm’s top management team (TMT) represent the stock of the firm’s strategic human capital, which, along with their social capital and cognitive perspectives, influences strategic decision-making. This chapter provides a brief overview of the current state of research on TMTs and addresses limitations of this research before proposing an agenda for future research. The intent is to suggest avenues of scholarly inquiry to better understand how the firm’s TMT, through its interactions, attributes, and behavior, influences strategic decision-making. In doing so, the chapter could serve to encourage future research that will provide practical insight on how companies and boards can have more effective executive teams.

Prinsip Dasar Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Dalam Islam

AKADEMIKA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-77
Author(s):  
Misbahul Khoir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic System ◽  
Human Behavior ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Universal Values ◽  
The Government ◽  
Islamic Economic ◽  
And Behavior

In order for humans could reach the so-called falah (goodness), human behavior needs to be colored with the spirit and norms of Islamic economics reflected in its values. The principles and values of Islamic economics are considerably two inseparable things. The implementation of economic principles without being colored with values or values without being based on principles could keep people far away from their purpose, namely falah. The implementation of values not based on principles will tend to bring with it the normative economics, which would cause it trapped into injustice. While the implementation of values on the Islamic economic development is based on the five universal values, namely akidah (belief), 'adl (justice), nubuwwah (prophetic), khilafah (the government), and ma'ad (results). The five principles are used as the basis for building theories of Islamic economics. But strong and adequate theories not applied into a system will make the Islamic economics just as the study of science without giving positive impact on the economic life. Therefore, based on the five universal values, the three derivative principles should be built into the characteristics and the forerunner of the Islamic economic system. The Islamic economic system makes sure that there are no economic transactions that are contrary to the Shari'a. But business performance depends on the man behind the gun. For that reason, the economic actors within this framework could be held by non-Muslims. The Islamic economics could only be developed if the mindset and behavior of Muslims are already itqan (diligent) and ihsan (professional). It "may be" one of the secrets of the Prophet's statement, saying "Truly I was sent to perfect good character". Because good character could be an indicator of knowing good or bad behavior in determining both the success and the failure of business itself.

Influence of Confucian culture on entrepreneurial decision making using data from China's floating population

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ran Xiong ◽  
Ping Wei
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Floating Population ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Confucian Culture ◽  
Chinese Nation ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Entrepreneurial Decision ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

Confucian culture has had a deep-rooted influence on Chinese thinking and behavior for more than 2,000 years. With a manually created Confucian culture database and the 2017 China floating population survey, we used empirical analysis to test the relationship between Confucian culture and individual entrepreneurial choice using data obtained from China's floating population. After using the presence and number of Confucian schools and temples, and of chaste women as instrumental variables to counteract problems of endogeneity, we found that Confucian culture had a significant role in promoting individuals' entrepreneurial decision making among China's floating population. The results showed that, compared with those from areas of China not strongly influenced by Confucian culture, individuals from areas that are strongly influenced by Confucian culture were more likely to choose entrepreneurship as their occupation choice. Our findings reveal cultural factors that affect individual entrepreneurial behavior, and also illustrate the positive role of Confucianism as a representative of the typical cultures of the Chinese nation in the 21st century.

Knowing bears: An ethnographic study of knowledge and agency in human–bear cohabitation

2021 ◽  
pp. 251484862110150
Author(s):  
Svetoslava Toncheva ◽  
Robert Fletcher
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Ursus Arctos ◽  
Conservation Management ◽  
Ethnographic Study ◽  
Human Research ◽  
Research Challenges ◽  
Living Together ◽  
Growing Body ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior

This article explores a case of human–wildlife cohabitation in the Rodopi mountains of Bulgaria, wherein people and brown bears ( Ursus arctos) have adapted to living together in relative harmony. While this is due to a variety of factors, chief among these is the way both people and bears appear to pursue knowledge of one another and act on this knowledge so as to actively minimize potential for conflict. We draw on this case to contribute to growing discussion concerning how nonhumans should be understood and included within conservation policymaking. While conservation has conventionally been understood as something humans do on behalf of other species, a growing body of “more-than-human” research challenges this perspective as “anthropocentric” in arguing that nonhumans should be considered “co-constitutive actors” of the spaces they occupy. Based on this understanding, some go so far as to assert that a “multispecies ethics” demands that nonhumans be actively included in decision-making concerning such spaces’ governance. While our study indeed demonstrates that both humans and bears seem to mold their behavior in relation to their sensing of the other’s behavior, it also demonstrates that knowledge of bears’ behavior is ultimately always interpreted by humans in conservation management. Moreover, different groups of stakeholders hold different knowledge of bears that influence their attitudes and behavior towards the animals. The study thus raises important questions concerning how to incorporate bears (and other nonhumans) within conservation decision-making, and whose knowledge should be privileged in the process.

scholarly journals Distinct roles for dopamine clearance mechanisms in regulating behavioral flexibility

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clio Korn ◽  
Thomas Akam ◽  
Kristian H. R. Jensen ◽  
Cristiana Vagnoni ◽  
Anna Huber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Flexibility ◽  
Dopamine Neurons ◽  
Nucleus Accumbens Core ◽  
Comt Inhibition ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
Dopamine Signaling ◽  
Precise Relationship ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Kinetics Of

AbstractDopamine plays a crucial role in adaptive behavior, and dysfunctional dopamine is implicated in multiple psychiatric conditions characterized by inflexible or inconsistent choices. However, the precise relationship between dopamine and flexible decision making remains unclear. One reason is that, while many studies have focused on the activity of dopamine neurons, efficient dopamine signaling also relies on clearance mechanisms, notably the dopamine transporter (DAT), which predominates in striatum, and catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), which predominates in cortex. The exact locus, extent, and timescale of the effects of DAT and COMT are uncertain. Moreover, there is limited data on how acute disruption of either mechanism affects flexible decision making strategies mediated by cortico-striatal networks. To address these issues, we combined pharmacological modulation of DAT and COMT with electrochemistry and behavior in mice. DAT blockade, but not COMT inhibition, regulated sub-second dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens core, but surprisingly neither clearance mechanism affected evoked release in prelimbic cortex. This was not due to a lack of sensitivity, as both amphetamine and atomoxetine changed the kinetics of sub-second release. In a multi-step decision making task where mice had to respond to reversals in either reward probabilities or the choice sequence to reach the goal, DAT blockade selectively impaired, and COMT inhibition improved, performance after reward reversals, but neither manipulation affected the adaptation of choices after action-state transition reversals. Together, our data suggest that DAT and COMT shape specific aspects of behavioral flexibility by regulating different aspects of the kinetics of striatal and cortical dopamine, respectively.

Piano+: An Approach towards a Performance System Used within Free Improvisation

2010 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
Sebastian Lexer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Social Space ◽  
Computer Performance ◽  
Free Improvisation ◽  
Technical Realization ◽  
Acoustic Instruments ◽  
Performance System ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Computer Operation

This article explores the author's strategy for developing a computer performance system designed for free improvisation with acoustic instruments following a non-idiomatic approach. Philosophical considerations on potentiality and personal and social space and research into the psychology of motivation and behavior have inspired and enabled a different approach to integrating technology with improvisation. The technical realization of a parameter space, in particular utilizing contingent behavior emerging from the convergent mapping of a mixture of controller types, has proven effective for the spontaneous creative decision making required to extend the sonic potential of an acoustic piano while minimizing direct computer operation, as applied regularly in practice by the author.

scholarly journals Understanding older adults' medication decision making and behavior: A study on over-the-counter (OTC) anticholinergic medications

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard J. Holden ◽  
Preethi Srinivas ◽  
Noll L. Campbell ◽  
Daniel O. Clark ◽  
Kunal S. Bodke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Over The Counter ◽  
Anticholinergic Medications ◽  
And Behavior

A NOTE ON MUTH'S RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS HYPOTHESIS: A TIME-VARYING COEFFICIENT INTERPRETATION

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.A.V.B. SWAMY ◽  
GEORGE S. TAVLAS
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Objective Probability ◽  
Varying Coefficient Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Exact Representation ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Varying Coefficient ◽  
True Model ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

Under certain interpretations of its coefficients, a specified econometric model is an exact representation of the “true” model, defining the “objective” probability distribution. This note enumerates these interpretations. In the absence of the conditions implied by these interpretations, the econometric model is misspecified. The note shows that model misspecifications prevent the satisfaction of a necessary and sufficient condition for individual expectations to be rational in Muth's sense. Whereas restrictive forms of econometric models can give very inaccurate predictions, this note describes the conditions under which the predictions generated from time-varying coefficient models coincide with the predictions generated from the relevant economic theory.

A Value Focused Thinking Approach to Decommissioning Decision Making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Tung
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Analysis Tool ◽  
Stakeholder Values ◽  
A Value ◽  
Value Focused Thinking ◽  
Science Theory ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Stakeholder Acceptance

Abstract Values are what stakeholders regard to be important to decisions (Kruglanski & Higgins 2007). How stakeholder prioritize, rank, balance, and trade-off values can have significant influence on their reasoning and evaluation of decommissioning outcomes and decisions. Stakeholder values can vary depending on various factors including religious beliefs, personal interests, and past experiences (Lechner et al., 2017). Value-focused thinking is a decision science theory developed by Keeney (1992) which builds upon the concept of varying stakeholder values. Keeney (1992) argues that the best decision is one that best reflects the actual values of stakeholders. which suggests that the acceptability of decommissioning decisions (full removal, partial removal, leave in-situ, rigs-to-reefs, etc.) by stakeholders will vary depending on the values of stakeholder in that particular context. This paper explores the idea of value-focused thinking and derive implications for decommissioning decision-making. Overall, the research finding suggests that rather than basing a decommissioning decision solely on scientific evidence, there is also a need for the decommissioning decisions to be able to reflect the actual values of stakeholders in that particular context. The criteria and weightage of the adopted multi-criteria decision analysis tool, for example, should accurately represent the actual values of stakeholders, so as to enable the tool to produce outcomes and decisions that has a higher probability of stakeholder acceptance.

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