scholarly journals The external sector shocks and macroeconomics in Nigeria

Author(s):  
Ohiomoje Iyemifokhae Abubakar ◽  

The study examines the relationship between some key macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria and the external sector. During the period under review, it was discovered that crude oil had a lion’s share of Nigeria’s export earnings and the international demand for the country’s non-oil exports was unimpressive due to the development of synthetic alternatives, discriminative tariffs and new entrants in the global market (Central Bank of Nigeria, 2008). Consequently, most of the research on this topic hinged their framework on shocks from the oil sector (see Lukman and Olomola, 2016). In contemporary times, however, the contribution of crude oil to Nigeria’s gross domestic product has been dwindling. As at 2019, the entire oil and gas industry contributed less than 10% of Nigeria’s gross domestic product (Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), 2019). There was the need to examine the external sector from a more comprehensive approach and framework. Therefore, this study evaluated the impact of shocks from Nigeria’s terms of trade and major foreign stock market index on macroeconomics in Nigeria. The methodology adopted for this study is the vector autoregressive technique, impulse response function and the error variance decomposition method. The findings show that the gross domestic product, price level and interest rate respond strongly in the short run (1-2 years), gradually fluctuates in the medium term (3-5 years) and become stable in the long run (6-10 years) due to shocks from the Dow Jones index and Nigeria’s terms of trade. Thus, intervention policies should focus on mitigating the impact of external sector shocks on macroeconomics in the short and medium terms when the impact is enormous.

Author(s):  
Yun D Starchenko

The Economic Monitor offers an overview of key economic trends and policies over the preceding six months and discusses conclusions from recent World Bank work on Iraq, putting them in a longer-term and global sense and evaluating the impact of these developments and other policy adjustments Iraq's outlook. The macroeconomy, capital markets, and indices of human health and growth are all included. It is aimed at a broad range of people, like policymakers, industry executives, stock market players, and Iraq's analysts and practitioners. The research problem was represented by the fact that the Iraqi economy is single-source due to its dependence on the crude oil sector, which constitutes more than (60%) of the gross domestic product. Crude oil revenues constitute more than (90%) and neglect other economic sectors such as agriculture, industry, and tourism, whose percentage did not exceed (30%) of the gross domestic product. The weakness of non-oil exports in the foreign trade sector is the failure of macroeconomic policies to diversify the Iraqi economy. The research aims to achieve many goals, the most important of which are: identifying the concept and indicators of diversification. As well as an analysis of the Iraqi economic structure during the period (2008-2019). A forward-looking vision for economic diversification in Iraq.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 1810-1830
Author(s):  
Levent Aydın ◽  
Izzet Ari

Human beings face unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic outbreak since the beginning of 2020. This disease started to change economic, social, and individual conventional behaviors. Several economic activities have sharply declined, and demand for commodities is decreasing, such as oil. This commodity has also suffered from disagreement among Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ members to deal with the amount of cutting oil production. This situation adds a supply-side problem into declining demand due to Covid-19. Turkey, as an emerging economy, highly depends on imported oil and suffers from this pandemic disease. This study aims to analyze the compensating role of falling oil prices for impacts of Covid-19 on non-recoverable sectors in Turkey, e.g. tourism, travel, and transportation. The main argument in the study, that is falling prices in oil can contribute to compensation for losing revenue from tourism, travel, and transport. Throughout the study, ORANI-G as a multisectoral computable general equilibrium model is employed. Three scenarios, namely Scenario-1, 2A, and 2B, are set to analyze the effects of falling oil prices as compensation for Covid-19 in the selected sectors. Results show that Covid-19 decreases gross domestic product by 1.16 but falling oil prices as 25 and 50% compensate for this decrease by 0.72 and 1.56% gross domestic product increases, respectively. It is concluded that through the falling oil prices, Turkey’s dependence on crude oil imports might provide a new reparation to overcome non-recoverable impacts. This study is scoped with selected sectors and falling oil prices. Other economic and social sectors need to be investigated in terms of challenges of Covid-19 and opportunities for declining crude oil prices. Besides, competitiveness based on the scale of firms and the ability to access business finance should be analyzed within the changing business model in the post-coronavirus period.


2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-20
Author(s):  
Ersalina Tang

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Energy Consumption, Electric Consumption, and Meat Consumption on CO2 emissions of 41 countries in the world using panel data from 1999 to 2013. After analyzing 41 countries in the world data, furthermore 17 countries in Asia was analyzed with the same period. This study utilized quantitative approach with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression method. The results of 41 countries in the world data indicates that Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Energy Consumption, and Meat Consumption significantlyaffect Environmental Qualities which measured by CO2 emissions. Whilst the results of 17 countries in Asia data implies that Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption, and Electric Consumption significantlyaffect Environmental Qualities. However, Gross Domestic Product and Meat Consumption does not affect Environmental Qualities.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Shi ◽  
Shijiong Qin ◽  
Yung-ho Chiu ◽  
Xiaoying Tan ◽  
Xiaoli Miao

AbstractChina’s commercial banks have developed at a very rapid speed in recent decades. However, with global economic development slowing down, the impact of gross domestic product growth as an exogenous factor cannot be ignored. Most existing studies only consider the internal factors of banks, and neglect their external economic factors. This study thus adopts an undesirable dynamic slacks-based measure under an exogenous model in combination with the Kernel density curve to explore the efficiency of state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), joint-stock commercial banks (JSCBs), and urban commercial banks (UCBs) in China from 2012 to 2018. The results show that SOCBs have the highest overall efficiency, followed by JSCBs, then UCBs. The efficiencies of SOCBs, JSCBs, and UCBs in the financing stage are greater than those in the investment stage, indicating that the latter stage brings down overall efficiency. Thus, all commercial banks need to focus on the efficiency of non-performing loans and return on capital. Finally, SOCBs need to strengthen internal controls, reduce non-performing loans and improve return on capital. JSCBs should actively expand its business while controlling costs, and UCBs should optimize its management.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Karuniana Dianta Arfiando Sebayang ◽  
Belinda Febrina

Economic activities require a transparent regulatory and policy environment that is accessible to all levels of society. This study aims to explain the impact of ease of doing business on economic growth in both ASEAN and the European Union since doing business indicators applied globally. Gross Domestic Product is used as a proxy variable for economic growth as Gross Domestic Product is an indicator to measure economic growth. This study uses a descriptive quantitative research model and uses multiple regressions to determine the effect of ease of doing business on economic growth in ASEAN and the European Union by comparing the result of each ASEAN and European Union. In this study it was found that in ASEAN, there are four indicators of doing business have significant impact to economic growth, while in the European Union five indicators have significant impact to economic growth.  


2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-220
Author(s):  
Emília Krajňáková ◽  
Vaida Pilinkienė ◽  
Patrik Bulko

The scope of the data presented in this study offers a comprehensive view of the issue of the HEI graduates employability in the Czech Republic and also in the Slovak Republic – related to determinants of economic development and their impact on them. This paper examines the impact of gross domestic product, gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by only higher education sector and foreign direct investment on HEI graduates employability. The results indicate that correlation between unemployment of tertiary educated Slovaks and GDP, GERD and FDI values was very big. Correlation relationship of similar determinants, except determinant GERD in conditions of the Czech Republic was characterized as weak. On the other hand, significantly stronger (very big to perfect) correlation affecting employment of tertiary educated Czechs regarding to indicators of gross domestic product, gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by sector of higher education and foreign direct investments as well. In conditions of the Slovak Republic, correlation relationship between employment of tertiary educated Slovaks and GDP was almost perfect.


Author(s):  
Maniklal Adhikary ◽  
Melisha Khatun

Development of infrastructure industries is essential to enhance the growth of a developing country. The present chapter attempts to examine the impact of infrastructure on Gross Domestic Product and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product of six SAARC countries from the period 1990-91 to 2013-14. The model is mis-specified whenever we have used the restricted panel data model. We have derived the results by employing the unrestricted panel data model. Impact of road, internet users and total electricity production on the level of GDP as well as on the level of PCGDP is highest for India among the all SAARC countries. India has also the highest rate of growth of GDP over the entire period. Rate of growth of PCGDP is highest for Sri Lanka followed by India.


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