scholarly journals Multi-attribute Decision Method Based on Normal Random Variable in Economic Management Risk Control

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuesong Hu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Space Environment ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Environments

Abstract This article proposes a distribution function based on normal distribution to express the distribution of criterion values in the interval. This method considers that the economic evaluation target of investment projects is multi-attribute. The economic management risk control environment is divided into information environment, time and space environment, and subject environment. The paper gives the corresponding multi-attribute economic evaluation method for the six possible combinations of project risk environments under the possibility of mutual comparison between interval numbers under the normal distribution. In the end, an example is used to illustrate the practicability and simplicity of the decision-making method.

scholarly journals Factors and Economic Evaluation of Transnational Investment Risks

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Guanghui Xiong ◽  
Lei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Evaluation Models

Transnational investment is featured by its large scale and high risks. During transnational investment, the frequent risks often bring a huge loss to the investors. Therefore, the risk factors should be included in the economic evaluation of transnational investment projects. However, the existing evaluation models and systems are rather complex, lacking a unified framework. Besides, there are few practical applications of these models or systems. To solve the problem, this paper explores the factors and economic evaluation of transnational investment risks. Firstly, an economic evaluation system was constructed for transnational investment projects, and the economic evaluation result was depicted in two aspects: economic income factors and investment risk factors. Then, the applicability and economic meanings of common indices were clarified one after another. After that, the economic evaluation flow was designed for risk-based transnational investment projects. Finally, an economic evaluation was performed on actual projects, which verifies the feasibility of the proposed evaluation method.

Qualitative comparative analysis of health economic evaluation guidelines for health technology assessment in European countries

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Zisis ◽  
Panagiota Naoum ◽  
Kostas Athanasakis
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Health Technology Assessment ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Outcome Measure ◽  
Health Technology ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Common Practices

Abstract Objective To classify, analyze, and compare published guidelines for economic evaluation within health technology assessment (HTA) in European countries and highlight differences and similarities. Methods We performed a literature review to identify published guidance for the conduct and assessment of economic evaluation studies that are undertaken within the context of HTA processes in European countries. Organizations and working groups were identified via the ISPOR, INAHTA, and EUnetHTA databases. Following the identification of official documents, we performed a qualitative content analysis to highlight discrepancies or common practices under the following categories: comparator, perspective on costs/benefits, time horizon, economic evaluation method, instrument used for utility measurement, outcome measure, source for efficacy, modeling, sensitivity analysis, discounting, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Results A total of nineteen guidance documents were identified (in English) providing data for the analysis in nineteen countries. The comparative content analysis identified common practices in most countries regarding the approaches to the choice of comparator, source of data, the preferred economic evaluation method, the option for a lifetime analytical horizon, discounting, and the choice of key outcome measure—for which, most countries recommend the use of the EQ-5D instrument. Differences were mainly found in the choice of perspective, dealing with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the use of end points, and the required use of modeling. Conclusions The use of economic evaluation constitutes one of the key pillars of the HTA process in Europe. Although a methodological convergence has occurred during the last few years, notable differences still remain.

Analysis of Geological Disasters Economic Evaluation

2013 ◽  
Vol 444-445 ◽  
pp. 1751-1755
Author(s):  
Qing Hua Zhan ◽  
Shi Mei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation Method ◽  
Geological Disasters ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Basic Concepts

This paper first introduces the meaning and mission of the economic evaluation of geological disasters,as well as the basic concepts of different economic evaluation, and then discuss the methods of economic evaluation of geological disasters, including multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and statistical data evaluation method, and gives the outlook of the economic evaluation of geological disasters.

Theoretical Study on Bridge Structure Condition Evaluation Based on Health Monitoring Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 751-754
Author(s):  
Zhao Lan Wei ◽  
Rui Yu ◽  
Chu Yun Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
Evaluation Theory ◽  
Interval Numbers ◽  
Subjective Weight ◽  
Condition Evaluation ◽  
Interval Extension ◽  
Index Variation ◽  
Confidence Degree ◽  
Grade Division

After processed the signals obtained from monitoring system, one theory of condition evaluation was proposed on basis of a new evaluation parameter—index variation. One new condition grade division method was proposed from approximate statistic distribution of index variation, and as per the concept of confidence degree and confidence interval. Because the monitoring data and the standard of condition grade division were all interval numbers, interval extension evaluation theory was adopted to establish the model of condition evaluation. Set-Valued Statistics and gravity center based decision theory were introduced to divide weight into subjective weight and objective weight to make calculation. This evaluation method was found to be reasonable and had good project practicability.

scholarly journals ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ПОКАЗНИКА ЕФЕКТИВНОСТІ ЕКСПЛУАТАЦІЇ ЗАСОБІВ ВИМІРЮВАЛЬНОЇ ТЕХНІКИ МЕТОДОМ КОМПʼЮТЕРНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ

2020 ◽  
pp. 166-169
Author(s):  
Олександр Володимирович Томашевський ◽  
Геннадій Валентинович Сніжной
Keyword(s):  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Operational Efficiency ◽  
Distribution Law ◽  
Maintenance System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Calibration Interval

The operational efficiency of measuring equipment (ME) is important in determining the cost of maintaining ME. To characterize the operational efficiency of the ME, an efficiency indicator has been introduced, an increase of which will reduce costs caused by the release of defective products due to the use of ME with unreliable indications. Over time, the ME parameters change under the influence of external factors and the ME aging processes inevitably occur, as a result of which the parameters of the ME metrological service system change. Therefore, in the general case, the parameters of the metrological maintenance system of ME should be considered as random variables. Accordingly, the efficiency indicator of measuring instruments is also a random variable, for the determination of which it is advisable to apply the methods of mathematical statistics and computer simulation. The performance indicator depends on the parameters of the metrological maintenance ME system, such as the calibration interval, the time spent by the ME on metrological maintenance, and the likelihood of ME failure-free operation. As a random variable, the efficiency indicator has a certain distribution function. To determine the distribution function of the efficiency indicator and the corresponding statistical characteristics, a computer simulation method was used. A study was made of the influence on the indicator of the effectiveness of the parameters of the metrological maintenance system ME (interesting interval, the failure rate of ME). The value of the verification interval and the failure rate of MEs varied over a wide range typical of real production. The time spent by ME on metrological services is considered as a random variable with a normal distribution law. To obtain random numbers with a normal distribution law, the Box-Muller method is used. After modeling, the statistical processing of the obtained results was done. It is shown that in real production, the efficiency indicator has a normal distribution law and the value of the efficiency indicator with an increase in the calibration interval does not practically change.

scholarly journals An Introduction to Economic Evaluation: What's in a Name?

2005 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 159-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey S Hoch ◽  
Carolyn S Dewa
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Economic Study ◽  
Value Judgment ◽  
A Value ◽  
Different Types ◽  
New Treatment ◽  
Evaluation Techniques

Objective: This paper describes the main types of economic evaluation techniques. Method: To examine the strengths and limitations of different types of economic evaluations, we used a hypothetical example to review the reasoning underlying each method and to illustrate when it is appropriate to use each method. Results: The choice of economic evaluation method reflects a decision about what should represent “success” and how success should be valued. Measures of benefit and cost must be considered systematically and simultaneously. Claiming that a new treatment is cost-effective requires making a value judgment based on the personal beliefs of the claimant. Even when cost and effect data are objective, a verdict of cost-effective is subjective. The conclusions of an economic study can change significantly, depending on which patient outcome is used to measure success. Conclusions: Clinicians must be sure that important patient outcomes are not excluded from economic evaluations. Economic evaluation is a process designed to produce an estimate rather than a decision. New treatment can be more costly and still be cost-effective (if the extra benefit is valued more than the extra cost to produce it). However, since economic evaluation does not explicitly consider a decision maker's available budget, a new treatment can be deemed cost-effective but too expensive to approve.

Increase of oil recovery with harmonization of the interests of state and mineral developers

2021 ◽  
pp. 28-34
Author(s):  
A.Ya. Khavkin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Production Cost ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Reliable Prediction ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
Active Implementation ◽  
Oil Gas

Based on the calculation of actual internal rate of return (IRRR) in the investment projects in the context of oil production, it is shown that using IRRR will lead to the reduction of oil production cost, increase of oil recovery and return both for state and mineral developers. The analysis on the economic evaluation of profitability of investment projects based on IRR and NPV, which force the managers to accept only the projects with high IRR for the guarantee of the actual economic efficiency has been carried out. It is noted that in some cases the state support of the mineral developer is necessary for his interest in oil production. Therefore, economic evaluation of profitability of development projects should be as accurate as possible. The author emphasizes that IRR criterion provides reliable prediction of actual efficiency of technological solutions and will lead to the wide-scale and active implementation of state-of-the-art technologies in oil-gas sphere, as well as reducing the oil production cost.

scholarly journals An Improved Ship Collision Risk Evaluation Method for Korea Maritime Safety Audit Considering Traffic Flow Characteristics

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunja Yoo ◽  
Tae-Goun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Collision Probability ◽  
Normal Distribution Function ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Ship Collision ◽  
Best Fit

Ship collision accidents account for the majority of marine accidents. The collision risk can be even greater in ports where the traffic density is high and terrain conditions are difficult. The proximity assessment model of the Korea Maritime Safety Audit (KMSA), which is a tool for improving maritime traffic safety, employs a normal distribution of ship traffic to calculate the ship collision risk. However, ship traffic characteristics can differ according to the characteristics of the sea area and shipping route. Therefore, this study simulates collision probabilities by estimating the best-fit distribution function of ship traffic flow in Ulsan Port, which is the largest hazardous cargo vessel handling port in Korea. A comparison of collision probability simulation results using the best-fit function and the normal distribution function reveals a difference of approximately 1.5–2.4 times for each route. Moreover, the collision probability estimates are not accurate when the normal distribution function is uniformly applied without considering the characteristics of each route. These findings can be used to improve the KMSA evaluation method for ship collision risks, particularly in hazardous port areas.

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