Analyzing the foreign trade competitiveness of the Chuvash Republic

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 478-495
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov ◽  
A.M. Mulendeeva
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Seasonal Fluctuations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Its Regions ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
Trade Competitiveness ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses the foreign trade competitiveness of the region. Objectives. The aims of the study are to investigate the efficiency of international trade of the Chuvash Republic; to conduct aggregated and segmented assessment of foreign trade competitiveness of the Chuvash Republic, and to provide recommendations for improving the trading performance. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the statistical and cluster analysis. Results. We considered the current condition of the Russian economy, highlighted the main problems of its development, and substantiated the possibility of resolving them through increasing the efficiency of foreign trade at the level of the country and its regions. We performed an aggregated and segmented assessment of foreign trade competitiveness of the economy of the Chuvash Republic. It enabled to reveal strengths of importer countries in the general commodity turnover and seasonal fluctuations of exports. Our recommendations for improving foreign trade competitiveness rest on the cluster analysis of significant imports and exports. This analysis unveiled countries that contribute to turnover growth in the Chuvash Republic, as well as the main groups of commodities contributing to the balance of sales volume. Conclusions. To improve the competitiveness of foreign trade of the Chuvash Republic, it is crucial to increase the efficiency of trade flow, i.e. imports from Belarus and the Netherlands, and exports to Armenia and Lithuania.

Analyzing the "Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035" content

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-324
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
Number Of Visits ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses a strategy for socio-economic development of the region. Objectives. The purpose is to define contradictions and opportunities to achieve the expected results of the "Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035". Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The statistical analysis of trends in expected outcomes of the Strategy implementation enabled to build a median hierarchy of their growth rates, where the indicator of an increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions is a priority in setting the goals for the region’s development. The neural network analysis demonstrates the importance of the growth rate of real accrued wages of employees of organizations and the insignificant value of the increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions for effective achievement of all objectives of the Strategy. The cluster analysis shows the importance of growth rates of indicators of the proportion of organizations engaged in technological innovations, and the proportion of shipped innovative products. The analysis of growth rates of GRP and expenditures of the consolidated budget of the Chuvash Republic reveals a decrease in the cyclical lag of the first dynamic pattern from the second one. Conclusions. For the Chuvash Republic, a strategic priority is to overcome the GRP growth limit through the innovative development of backbone areas of economic activity.

Key factors of foreign trade competitiveness: Comparison of the EU and BRICS by factor and cluster analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 295-317
Author(s):  
Bohdan Vahalík ◽  
Michaela Staníčková
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Factor And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Trade Competitiveness ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

International competitiveness is influenced by globalization processes in the world economy. This process changes the comparative advantages of each country and thus the shares of individual countries in world trade. BRICS countries have quickly strengthened their influence in international trade, and thus the European Union must face new pressure in competitiveness from their side. The aim of this paper is to define key factors of foreign trade competitiveness by an application of factor analysis and identify countries with similar characteristics of competitiveness factors by an application of cluster analysis. Factor and cluster analysis contain indicators of foreign trade which describe the driving forces of competitiveness, also in terms of long-term potentiality, and those which are direct or indirect outcomes of a competitive society and economy. Based on the results of the factor analysis, it is possible to classify the evaluated territories according to the level of foreign trade advancement by cluster analysis.

Determining the conditions for sustainable development of the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2093-2115
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Globalizing World ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses conditions for sustainable development of the Russian economy. Objectives. The purpose is to link the limit of sustainability of the Russian economy with required conditions. Methods. The study draws on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. I describe scientific ideas about sustainable development of economy, which have been developed in theoretical and practical activities. The World Bank data on environment, social affairs and governance on 17 key sustainable development topics, covering environmental, social and management categories, are used to determine conditions for sustainability of the Russian economy. The neural network analysis of the importance of indicators’ rate of increment shows a hierarchy of priorities. The cluster analysis of indicators’ rate of increment identifies significant clusters. The analysis of key priorities of sustainable development of the Russian economy enables to reveal significant deviations in political stability and in access to electricity. Conclusions. Conditions for sustainable development of the Russian economy are determined by their proximity to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Identifying these conditions in the globalizing world creates an understanding of the real limit and opportunities of the country's development.

Modeling the possibilities of entrepreneurship existence in the Chuvash Republic

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1077-1100
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Modeling Methods ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. This article analyzes the conditions for the existence of entrepreneurship and business undertakings in the Chuvash Republic. Objectives. The article aims to assess the possibilities of entrepreneurship existence in Chuvashia using mathematical modeling. Methods. For the study, I used a systems approach in the form of mathematical modeling of holistic changes in statistical and cluster analysis results. Results. The article explains the basis of business activity as self-movement, caused by economic contradictions. Conclusions and Relevance. The opportunities for entrepreneurship in Chuvashia are due to the potential and conditions of overcoming the economic structure limits, which become obvious in international trade. The results of the study extend the scope of knowledge, and form new competencies for making managerial decisions to ensure the existence and development of entrepreneurship in lagging regions.

A Russian approach to ensuring economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1234-1255
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates a Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Objectives. The aim is to identify the basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The paper defines the structural importance of exports of goods and services, and changes in inventories. It highlights significant links with public consumption expenditures. The Russian approach to ensuring economic growth comes down to devaluation of the national currencyб resulting from the loss of the real inflationary potential of economic growth to maintain the volume of exports of goods and services in the context of maintaining public consumption expenditures. The increase in M2 forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its foreign exchange reserves. This has a restraining effect on the growth of Russian Ruble’s monetary exchange rate. This phenomenon causes a drop in the Russian federal loan bond (OFZ) index and a replacement of strategic priorities with tactical ones. Conclusions. The basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth is a reflection of the limits of the Russian economy development and the effectiveness of the Government of the Russian Federation.

To development drivers of the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1881-1899
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Active Recovery ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the development of Russia's economy. Objectives. The study attempts to discover development drivers of the Russian economy, the substance of economic growth during the contemporary capitalist cycle. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical and cluster analysis. Results. Evaluating the median and he Fischer test of quarterly growth rates of economic and financial indicators and their clustering with federal budget, I discovered what distinguished the Russian economy from socialist China (the dynamics of growth in GDP and exports); from leading capitalist economies, such as Germany and the USA (a decrease in the unemployment rate). I determine what maintains Russia's activity during the globalization, that is, a growth in Consumer Price Index and the devaluation of the national currency. I discovered dampering signs of the Russian economy during crises and the active recovery of the global economy. Conclusions and Relevance. What will drive the development of the Russian economy mainly depends on its position in the global economy and the dampering role of capitalist cycles, considering the contradictory development of productive forces and economic relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and new competencies of public authorities to make administrative decisions on methods to advance the Russian economy.

The analysis of the substance of economic growth in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1737-1761
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Subject. The article investigates the substance of Russia’s economic growth. Objectives. I determine what circumstances influence the substance of the economic growth in Russia. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach, methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. It is important to analyze the substance of the economic growth in Russia. The Russian resources were found to be actively provided to other countries via capital and current transfers. Growth rates in the consolidated account gets less variable since the statistical variance was significantly adjusted with respect to capital translations, and product subsidies were limited, including products for State-owned enterprises, exports and imports. As a priority of the Russian economic economic growth, it focuses on the generation of income. I also discovered considerable links to the consolidated account. The Russian economy is oriented at the reallocation of available income among sectors so that savings and capital transfers could be made. Doing so, the country will subsequently acquire non-financial assets on the free-hold basis and interest in the production process. Internal resources of the sustainable economic growth were found to deplete under the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Conclusions and Relevance. Shaping the substance of the economic growth in Russia, such circumstance demonstrate to governmental authorities that the goal of the socioeconomic development should be achieved with different methods. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government for purposes of economic growth.

The content analysis of Russian finance

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 585-610
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the Russian finance. Objectives. I determine the basics and conditions needed for the Russian finance. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Having evaluated growth rates of prices for basic commodities and quotations of the Russian stocks, I determined what underlies the Russian finance as the prevailing trend in Rosneft’s stocks and Urals oil futures. Observing the movement of RTSI, IMOEX, S&P500, WTI oil future, USD/RUB rate, I discovered the gap between IMOEX and RTSI. RTSI remains with the WTI oil futures trend, while IMOEX joined the trend in S&P500. Having analyzed the importance of growth rates of global indices, I understood what is required for their maximum, i.e. the lowest growth rates of RTSI and the highest FTSE100. Considering the global indices and their growth rates, the Russian finance will be viable if RTSI indices are associated with DJIA and US Dollar Index. Structurally, the Russian economy cannot ensure the direct association of RTSI and DJIA. RTSI gets associated with DJIA through S&P500. US Dollar Index is a leading components in this correlation, as it determined the dynamics of USD/RUB and IMOEX. As for the trend in the rate of principal currencies, the basket with USD and CNY seems to be acceptable for the financial regulator. Conclusions and Relevance. The content analysis reveals the threatening intensification of adverse factors that make the Russian economy dependent on oil production, and outlines what can be done to eliminate them. The findings constitute new knowledge and advance the competence of the financial market regulator to make administrative decisions concerning the allocation, reallocation of the public product value and a part of national wealth so as to maintain the Russian finance in terms of form and substance.

Economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia's operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1093-1115
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Legal Form ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Existing Structure

Subject. The article focuses on operations of the Central Bank’s of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The study is to determine economic boundaries of operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Analyzing the tomorrow-today dynamics of difference of the weighted average exchange rate RUB/USD and EUB/EUR and supply of USD and EUR, I discovered the supply of USD steadily exceeded the supply of RUB/EUR starting from 2018. Analyzing trends in growth rates of international reserves and money base (in its narrow sense), I found a growth in monetary growth starting from 2015 and currency reserves, cash in circulation (out of the Bank of Russia), statutory reserves of credit institutions in the Bank of Russia starting from 2017. Analyzing the importance of growth rates of market indicators, I identified its effective configuration referring to the dynamics of SP500. However, I point out stocks of Rostelecom, gold and RUB/USD. The article demonstrates the important ties between RTS index and stocks of Gazprom and Rostelecom, USD index ? RUB/USD, gold, SP500. Considering the existing structure of the Russian economy, the upper and base boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations are Repo rate and RUB/USD respectively. Conclusions and Relevance. The above economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations allow financial institutions to pursue an increase in the sustainability of the banking system, preserve the ownership structure, legal form and corporate governance, and use derivatives in order to decrease borrowings costs. The study contributes to the knowledge and competence of governmental officials so as to make administrative decisions on sources of growth in the Russian economy and respective opportunities.

Analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2050-2077
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Governmental Institutions ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Bank System

Subject. The article studies the financial composition of the Russian market. Objectives. The study identifies scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian market. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The study emphasizes the importance of analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market. The Bank of Russia pursues a growth in the gross volume of loans granted by the financial system to individuals, enterprises, non-financial governmental institutions. It also tries to increment international reserves and less marketable, non-reserve assets. Depository corporations keep an eye on possible changes in requirements the bank system may set for governmental authorities of the Russian Federation, financial institutions of the Russian subjects and local authorities, governmental and other extra-budgetary funds. The study sets forth two appropriate scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian economy. I discovered that the clustering process depends in GDP at all key phases, such as production, distribution and use, and the Bank of Russia’s requirements to other financial and non-financial institutions in Rubles and foreign currency, and requirements of credit institutions to people. Basically, the macroprudential policy of the Bank of Russia shapes the financial composition of the Russian market. Conclusions and Relevance. The scenarios of the financial composition of the Russian market help the Russian government keep their activities in accordance with the Bank of Russia. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to ensure the economic growth.

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