Analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2050-2077
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Governmental Institutions ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Bank System

Subject. The article studies the financial composition of the Russian market. Objectives. The study identifies scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian market. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The study emphasizes the importance of analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market. The Bank of Russia pursues a growth in the gross volume of loans granted by the financial system to individuals, enterprises, non-financial governmental institutions. It also tries to increment international reserves and less marketable, non-reserve assets. Depository corporations keep an eye on possible changes in requirements the bank system may set for governmental authorities of the Russian Federation, financial institutions of the Russian subjects and local authorities, governmental and other extra-budgetary funds. The study sets forth two appropriate scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian economy. I discovered that the clustering process depends in GDP at all key phases, such as production, distribution and use, and the Bank of Russia’s requirements to other financial and non-financial institutions in Rubles and foreign currency, and requirements of credit institutions to people. Basically, the macroprudential policy of the Bank of Russia shapes the financial composition of the Russian market. Conclusions and Relevance. The scenarios of the financial composition of the Russian market help the Russian government keep their activities in accordance with the Bank of Russia. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to ensure the economic growth.

The analysis of the substance of economic growth in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1737-1761
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Subject. The article investigates the substance of Russia’s economic growth. Objectives. I determine what circumstances influence the substance of the economic growth in Russia. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach, methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. It is important to analyze the substance of the economic growth in Russia. The Russian resources were found to be actively provided to other countries via capital and current transfers. Growth rates in the consolidated account gets less variable since the statistical variance was significantly adjusted with respect to capital translations, and product subsidies were limited, including products for State-owned enterprises, exports and imports. As a priority of the Russian economic economic growth, it focuses on the generation of income. I also discovered considerable links to the consolidated account. The Russian economy is oriented at the reallocation of available income among sectors so that savings and capital transfers could be made. Doing so, the country will subsequently acquire non-financial assets on the free-hold basis and interest in the production process. Internal resources of the sustainable economic growth were found to deplete under the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Conclusions and Relevance. Shaping the substance of the economic growth in Russia, such circumstance demonstrate to governmental authorities that the goal of the socioeconomic development should be achieved with different methods. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government for purposes of economic growth.

The analysis of structural relations in the Russian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1344-1366
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Constructive Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Structural Relations ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates structural relations in Russia’s economy. Objectives. I delve into the basis for structural relations in Russia’s economy. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I spotlight the establishment of optimal structural relations in the Russian economy. The article presents a set of material properties of the Russian economy, which hamper the emergence of optimal structural relations, sustainable growth and constructive development in the modern circumstances. What underlies structural relations in Russia is that its growth can be fed with domestic borrowings and paid services for the public, retail turnover, which depend on salaries and investment in capital stock, while changes in the foreign exchange rate are pegged to the turnover of foreign trade and deficit (surplus) of the consolidated budget. Conclusions and Relevance. Maintained with domestic borrowings and variation of the foreign exchange rate, economic growth, as the basis for structural relations in the Russian economy, is a sufficient indicator to evaluate the performance of the Russian government. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to set up consistent goals for creating optimal structural relations in the Russian economy.

Analyzing the сommensurability of requirements and conditions for the Russian economy growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 845-864
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Economy Growth ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Working Groups ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Growth Methods ◽  
Analysis Point

Subject. The article addresses the commensurability of requirements and conditions for the Russian economy growth. Objectives. The focus is on identifying significant deviations in commensurability of requirements and conditions for the Russian economy growth. Methods. The study draws on the systems approach, using methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The study highlights the problem of commensurability of requirements and conditions for the growth of the Russian economy, which negatively affects its structural integrity. It reveals a limited effect of monetization of the Russian economy on growth rates due to cash moving from the real sector to savings in US dollars. Against this background, the volatility of the developing Russian market and exchange rate decrease even with rising oil prices, however, the risk associated with an increase in borrowings, tax boost, deviation from the budget rule, and strong devaluation of Ruble increases. The results of the analysis point to significant deviations, which do not allow to set goals properly. Conclusions. The unveiled deviations in commensurability of requirements and conditions for the growth of the Russian economy are compensated by the creation of various working groups in the context of another virtual strategy of socio-economic development of Russia.

Analysis of conditions for consolidation of investments in Russian fixed assets

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 2258-2281
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Systems Approach ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
National Currency ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Effective Combination ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates the consolidation of investments in Russian fixed assets. Objectives. The purpose of the study is to identify conditions for the consolidation of investments in Russian fixed capital. Methods. The study draws on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. I reveal conditions for consolidation of investments in Russian fixed capital, i.e. private and foreign property, burdened with funds from the issue of corporate bonds and shares. The paper identifies a significant part of the Russian economy (mining activities) and unveils the high-tech imports domination. It highlights conditions for consolidation of investments in Russian fixed capital in the form of private and foreign property, which determine the parameters of international cooperation in US dollars and in the national currency, avoiding an excessive increase in gross government debt in the national currency. Conclusions. The described conditions for consolidation of investments in Russian fixed assets enable to direct the activities of the Russian government to effective combination of external and internal factors that ensure economic growth.

Analyzing the dynamics of indicators of the Russian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 753-771
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Military Security ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses the dynamics of the Russian economy indicators. Objectives. The aim is to identify sources and opportunities for the Russian economy growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The analysis of the currency, stock, and commodity market unveils the impulse effect on the MOEX index through the devaluation of the national currency and the issue of Russian Government Bonds. The analysis of the importance of GDP deflator by industry identifies the priority of economic activity ‘public administration and military security; social security’, which suppresses the economic activity ‘household activities as employers; undifferentiated activities of households to produce goods and provide services for their own consumption’. The structural integrity of economic activities is maintained through taxes on products. The dynamics of the share of GDP deflator growth and the index of output of goods and services revealed a low level of purchasing power and a rise in food inflation, as well as a significant upturn in inflation in the manufacturing sector after Q1 2020, which was caused by the increase in the cost of production and unit sales. Conclusions. The analyzed trends in the Russian economy indicators show a qualitative source of growth of the Russian economy, i.e. ‘people as an alternative oil’. This enables to move away from commodity dependence (RTSI) and actively use wide opportunities of growth (IMOEX).

The Russian degree of the coherence of finance and economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 1356-1380
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Difference ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
World Economic Order

Subject. The article discusses the extent to which finance and economy are bound in Russia. Objectives. The study determines the cohesion of finance and economy in Russia. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The paper determined the extent to which finance and economy are connected in Russia, considering the decay in the world economic order affecting the structural consistency of the Russian economy. The connection of finance and economy in Russia was found to tend to a lower profit margin from the difference of weighted average rates and the exchange rate, which pushes the financial sector to mortgage lending. To smooth any disparities in the lending market and eliminate causes of the housing bubble, the Russian Ministry of Finance has to increment the domestic debt ? RGBI. Analyzing the dynamics of RGBI, RTSI, USDRUB, NGG2021, BRG2021, I found out that USDRUB exceeded RGBI, RTSI and BRG2021. Natural gas (NGG2021) remains the only mechanism for sustaining the volume and return on RGBI. The U.S. sanctions against the Russian gas sector force to increase the volume of RGBI. The existing degree of the cohesion of finance and economy in Russia fuels an economic collapse than can be compared with 2008. Conclusions and Relevance. Studying the extent to which finance and economy are bound in Russia, it is possible to guide stakeholders of financial institutions, allowing them to increase the efficiency of lending for the real economy and using the potential of the resource structure of the Russian economy. The findings contribute to the available knowledge and competence of governmental officials and employees of financial institutions for choosing growth drivers of the Russian economy and seizing opportunities for this.

A Russian approach to ensuring economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1234-1255
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates a Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Objectives. The aim is to identify the basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The paper defines the structural importance of exports of goods and services, and changes in inventories. It highlights significant links with public consumption expenditures. The Russian approach to ensuring economic growth comes down to devaluation of the national currencyб resulting from the loss of the real inflationary potential of economic growth to maintain the volume of exports of goods and services in the context of maintaining public consumption expenditures. The increase in M2 forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its foreign exchange reserves. This has a restraining effect on the growth of Russian Ruble’s monetary exchange rate. This phenomenon causes a drop in the Russian federal loan bond (OFZ) index and a replacement of strategic priorities with tactical ones. Conclusions. The basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth is a reflection of the limits of the Russian economy development and the effectiveness of the Government of the Russian Federation.

To development drivers of the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1881-1899
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Active Recovery ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the development of Russia's economy. Objectives. The study attempts to discover development drivers of the Russian economy, the substance of economic growth during the contemporary capitalist cycle. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical and cluster analysis. Results. Evaluating the median and he Fischer test of quarterly growth rates of economic and financial indicators and their clustering with federal budget, I discovered what distinguished the Russian economy from socialist China (the dynamics of growth in GDP and exports); from leading capitalist economies, such as Germany and the USA (a decrease in the unemployment rate). I determine what maintains Russia's activity during the globalization, that is, a growth in Consumer Price Index and the devaluation of the national currency. I discovered dampering signs of the Russian economy during crises and the active recovery of the global economy. Conclusions and Relevance. What will drive the development of the Russian economy mainly depends on its position in the global economy and the dampering role of capitalist cycles, considering the contradictory development of productive forces and economic relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and new competencies of public authorities to make administrative decisions on methods to advance the Russian economy.

The content analysis of Russian finance

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 585-610
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the Russian finance. Objectives. I determine the basics and conditions needed for the Russian finance. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Having evaluated growth rates of prices for basic commodities and quotations of the Russian stocks, I determined what underlies the Russian finance as the prevailing trend in Rosneft’s stocks and Urals oil futures. Observing the movement of RTSI, IMOEX, S&P500, WTI oil future, USD/RUB rate, I discovered the gap between IMOEX and RTSI. RTSI remains with the WTI oil futures trend, while IMOEX joined the trend in S&P500. Having analyzed the importance of growth rates of global indices, I understood what is required for their maximum, i.e. the lowest growth rates of RTSI and the highest FTSE100. Considering the global indices and their growth rates, the Russian finance will be viable if RTSI indices are associated with DJIA and US Dollar Index. Structurally, the Russian economy cannot ensure the direct association of RTSI and DJIA. RTSI gets associated with DJIA through S&P500. US Dollar Index is a leading components in this correlation, as it determined the dynamics of USD/RUB and IMOEX. As for the trend in the rate of principal currencies, the basket with USD and CNY seems to be acceptable for the financial regulator. Conclusions and Relevance. The content analysis reveals the threatening intensification of adverse factors that make the Russian economy dependent on oil production, and outlines what can be done to eliminate them. The findings constitute new knowledge and advance the competence of the financial market regulator to make administrative decisions concerning the allocation, reallocation of the public product value and a part of national wealth so as to maintain the Russian finance in terms of form and substance.

Economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia's operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1093-1115
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Legal Form ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Existing Structure

Subject. The article focuses on operations of the Central Bank’s of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The study is to determine economic boundaries of operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Analyzing the tomorrow-today dynamics of difference of the weighted average exchange rate RUB/USD and EUB/EUR and supply of USD and EUR, I discovered the supply of USD steadily exceeded the supply of RUB/EUR starting from 2018. Analyzing trends in growth rates of international reserves and money base (in its narrow sense), I found a growth in monetary growth starting from 2015 and currency reserves, cash in circulation (out of the Bank of Russia), statutory reserves of credit institutions in the Bank of Russia starting from 2017. Analyzing the importance of growth rates of market indicators, I identified its effective configuration referring to the dynamics of SP500. However, I point out stocks of Rostelecom, gold and RUB/USD. The article demonstrates the important ties between RTS index and stocks of Gazprom and Rostelecom, USD index ? RUB/USD, gold, SP500. Considering the existing structure of the Russian economy, the upper and base boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations are Repo rate and RUB/USD respectively. Conclusions and Relevance. The above economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations allow financial institutions to pursue an increase in the sustainability of the banking system, preserve the ownership structure, legal form and corporate governance, and use derivatives in order to decrease borrowings costs. The study contributes to the knowledge and competence of governmental officials so as to make administrative decisions on sources of growth in the Russian economy and respective opportunities.

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