The content analysis of Russian finance

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 585-610
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the Russian finance. Objectives. I determine the basics and conditions needed for the Russian finance. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Having evaluated growth rates of prices for basic commodities and quotations of the Russian stocks, I determined what underlies the Russian finance as the prevailing trend in Rosneft’s stocks and Urals oil futures. Observing the movement of RTSI, IMOEX, S&P500, WTI oil future, USD/RUB rate, I discovered the gap between IMOEX and RTSI. RTSI remains with the WTI oil futures trend, while IMOEX joined the trend in S&P500. Having analyzed the importance of growth rates of global indices, I understood what is required for their maximum, i.e. the lowest growth rates of RTSI and the highest FTSE100. Considering the global indices and their growth rates, the Russian finance will be viable if RTSI indices are associated with DJIA and US Dollar Index. Structurally, the Russian economy cannot ensure the direct association of RTSI and DJIA. RTSI gets associated with DJIA through S&P500. US Dollar Index is a leading components in this correlation, as it determined the dynamics of USD/RUB and IMOEX. As for the trend in the rate of principal currencies, the basket with USD and CNY seems to be acceptable for the financial regulator. Conclusions and Relevance. The content analysis reveals the threatening intensification of adverse factors that make the Russian economy dependent on oil production, and outlines what can be done to eliminate them. The findings constitute new knowledge and advance the competence of the financial market regulator to make administrative decisions concerning the allocation, reallocation of the public product value and a part of national wealth so as to maintain the Russian finance in terms of form and substance.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Russian finance connectivity

2021 ◽  
Vol 106 ◽  
pp. 01014
Author(s):  
Valery Smirnov ◽  
Denis Osipov ◽  
Vladimir Gurdzhiyan ◽  
Irina Soshko ◽  
Mikhail Alexandrov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Negative Factors

As a result of evaluation of growth rates of major commodity prices and Russian share quotes there is discovered dominating dynamics of shares of Rosneft and Urals oil futures. Assessment of dynamics of RTSI, IMOEX, S&P500, WTI futures, USD/RUB showed IMOEX breakdown from RTSI. RTSI remained with the WTI futures, while IMOEX joined S&P500 trend. As a result of neural network analysis of importance of global indices growth rates there is determined a condition of achievement of their maximum value – minimum growth rate of RTSI and maximum rate of FTSE100 growth. Cluster analysis of the global indices in terms of their growth rates revealed connectivity between RTSI, DJIA and US Dollar Index. Russian economy structure can’t ensure direct connectivity of RTSI and DJIA. RTSI is indirectly connected to DJIA via S&P500. The leading role in this connection belongs to US Dollar Index that largely determines the dynamics of USD/RUB and IMOEX. Cluster analysis in terms of major currencies exchange rates growth defined a USD and CNY currency basket that is acceptable for the Russian economy. Analysis of the Russian finance connectivity has sufficiently identified a basis and conditions of its existence in the context of the strengthening negative factors which bind and overburden the Russian economy with oil dependence.

Economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia's operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1093-1115
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Legal Form ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Existing Structure

Subject. The article focuses on operations of the Central Bank’s of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The study is to determine economic boundaries of operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Analyzing the tomorrow-today dynamics of difference of the weighted average exchange rate RUB/USD and EUB/EUR and supply of USD and EUR, I discovered the supply of USD steadily exceeded the supply of RUB/EUR starting from 2018. Analyzing trends in growth rates of international reserves and money base (in its narrow sense), I found a growth in monetary growth starting from 2015 and currency reserves, cash in circulation (out of the Bank of Russia), statutory reserves of credit institutions in the Bank of Russia starting from 2017. Analyzing the importance of growth rates of market indicators, I identified its effective configuration referring to the dynamics of SP500. However, I point out stocks of Rostelecom, gold and RUB/USD. The article demonstrates the important ties between RTS index and stocks of Gazprom and Rostelecom, USD index ? RUB/USD, gold, SP500. Considering the existing structure of the Russian economy, the upper and base boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations are Repo rate and RUB/USD respectively. Conclusions and Relevance. The above economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations allow financial institutions to pursue an increase in the sustainability of the banking system, preserve the ownership structure, legal form and corporate governance, and use derivatives in order to decrease borrowings costs. The study contributes to the knowledge and competence of governmental officials so as to make administrative decisions on sources of growth in the Russian economy and respective opportunities.

The content analysis of regional entrepreneurship

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 556-584
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Fish Farming ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The study determines directions for developing the business activity in the Russian regions. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I review the current aspects of the regional business development when business rules are changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The article scrutinizes the concept of entrepreneurship in terms of historical development and legal status. Having conducted the content analysis of the business activity in a lagging region of the Russian Federation, I found its highest concentration, with small businesses (and microbusinesses) taking the lead and maintaining the employment. Businesses tend to trade in goods of other producers, thus decreasing the average headcount for smaller businesses, including microbusinesses. Studying the hierarchy of economic activity types small businesses engage in by share of investment in the capital stock (in terms of new and imported fixed assets), I note the unprofitable investment n such foreign trade activities, such as Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fisheries and fish farming, and Construction. The dynamism of small businesses drops earlier, longer and deeper if compared to sole proprietors. In a lagging region, smaller business forms can evolve only if they deal with trade. Conclusions and Relevance. The content analysis of the Russian regional business gave an understanding of its development limits from perspectives of a lagging region, which determines the growth rates of business activity in Russia. The content analysis reveals high growth rates of trade in goods that smaller businesses sell, without being their producers. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of specialists working for the Russian Ministry of Economic Development to make consistent managerial decisions concerning the distribution and redistribution of investment resources.

Analyzing the current effectiveness of the Russian economy's design

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 1476-1496
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Moscow Oblast ◽  
Structural Balance ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Stability

Subject. The article discusses Russia’s economy and analyzes its effectiveness. Objectives. The study attempts to determine to what extent Russia’s economy is effective. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the statistical analysis. Results. I discovered significant fluctuations of the structural balance due to changing growth rates of the total gross national debt denominated in the national currency, and the stability of growth rates of governmental revenue. Changes in the RUB exchange rate and an additional growth in GDP are the main stabilizers of the structural balance, as they depend on hydrocarbon export. As a result of the analysis of cash flows, I found that the exports slowed down. Financial resources are strongly centralized, since Moscow and the Moscow Oblast are incrementing their share in the export of mineral resources, oil and refining products and import of electrical machines and equipment. Conclusions and Relevance. The fact that the Russian economy has been effectively organized is proved with the centralization of the economic power and the limits through the cross-regional corporation, such as Moscow and the Moscow Oblast, which is resilient to any regional difficulties ensuring the economic growth and sustainable development. The findings would be valuable for the political and economic community to outline and substantiate actions to keep rates of the economic growth and sustainable development of the Russian economy.

Public finance flow in contemporary Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 2501-2523
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Public Finance ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Cluster Analyses ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Economic Formation

Subject. This article discusses the issues related to public finance. Objectives. The article aims to identify the determinants, indicators, and priorities of the public finance flow in contemporary Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analyses, and the systems approach. Results. The article identifies and describes the determining indicators of the main aggregates and balances of public finance, sources, and the use of funds. It establishes a link between the main aggregates and balances of public finance, defining the form and content of Russian capitalism. Conclusions. Understanding the issue and problem of public finance flow in contemporary Russia helps identify the reasons for the inability to transit to a capitalist socio-economic formation. The provisions of the study expand the scope of knowledge and develop the competence of public authorities to make management decisions on the distribution and redistribution of the value of a public product and part of the national wealth.

A Russian approach to ensuring economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1234-1255
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates a Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Objectives. The aim is to identify the basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The paper defines the structural importance of exports of goods and services, and changes in inventories. It highlights significant links with public consumption expenditures. The Russian approach to ensuring economic growth comes down to devaluation of the national currencyб resulting from the loss of the real inflationary potential of economic growth to maintain the volume of exports of goods and services in the context of maintaining public consumption expenditures. The increase in M2 forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its foreign exchange reserves. This has a restraining effect on the growth of Russian Ruble’s monetary exchange rate. This phenomenon causes a drop in the Russian federal loan bond (OFZ) index and a replacement of strategic priorities with tactical ones. Conclusions. The basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth is a reflection of the limits of the Russian economy development and the effectiveness of the Government of the Russian Federation.

Analyzing the "Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035" content

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-324
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Chuvash Republic ◽  
Number Of Visits ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article addresses a strategy for socio-economic development of the region. Objectives. The purpose is to define contradictions and opportunities to achieve the expected results of the "Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Chuvash Republic until 2035". Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The statistical analysis of trends in expected outcomes of the Strategy implementation enabled to build a median hierarchy of their growth rates, where the indicator of an increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions is a priority in setting the goals for the region’s development. The neural network analysis demonstrates the importance of the growth rate of real accrued wages of employees of organizations and the insignificant value of the increase in the number of visits to cultural institutions for effective achievement of all objectives of the Strategy. The cluster analysis shows the importance of growth rates of indicators of the proportion of organizations engaged in technological innovations, and the proportion of shipped innovative products. The analysis of growth rates of GRP and expenditures of the consolidated budget of the Chuvash Republic reveals a decrease in the cyclical lag of the first dynamic pattern from the second one. Conclusions. For the Chuvash Republic, a strategic priority is to overcome the GRP growth limit through the innovative development of backbone areas of economic activity.

To development drivers of the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1881-1899
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Active Recovery ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the development of Russia's economy. Objectives. The study attempts to discover development drivers of the Russian economy, the substance of economic growth during the contemporary capitalist cycle. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical and cluster analysis. Results. Evaluating the median and he Fischer test of quarterly growth rates of economic and financial indicators and their clustering with federal budget, I discovered what distinguished the Russian economy from socialist China (the dynamics of growth in GDP and exports); from leading capitalist economies, such as Germany and the USA (a decrease in the unemployment rate). I determine what maintains Russia's activity during the globalization, that is, a growth in Consumer Price Index and the devaluation of the national currency. I discovered dampering signs of the Russian economy during crises and the active recovery of the global economy. Conclusions and Relevance. What will drive the development of the Russian economy mainly depends on its position in the global economy and the dampering role of capitalist cycles, considering the contradictory development of productive forces and economic relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and new competencies of public authorities to make administrative decisions on methods to advance the Russian economy.

The analysis of the substance of economic growth in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1737-1761
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Subject. The article investigates the substance of Russia’s economic growth. Objectives. I determine what circumstances influence the substance of the economic growth in Russia. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach, methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. It is important to analyze the substance of the economic growth in Russia. The Russian resources were found to be actively provided to other countries via capital and current transfers. Growth rates in the consolidated account gets less variable since the statistical variance was significantly adjusted with respect to capital translations, and product subsidies were limited, including products for State-owned enterprises, exports and imports. As a priority of the Russian economic economic growth, it focuses on the generation of income. I also discovered considerable links to the consolidated account. The Russian economy is oriented at the reallocation of available income among sectors so that savings and capital transfers could be made. Doing so, the country will subsequently acquire non-financial assets on the free-hold basis and interest in the production process. Internal resources of the sustainable economic growth were found to deplete under the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Conclusions and Relevance. Shaping the substance of the economic growth in Russia, such circumstance demonstrate to governmental authorities that the goal of the socioeconomic development should be achieved with different methods. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government for purposes of economic growth.

Analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2050-2077
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Governmental Institutions ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Bank System

Subject. The article studies the financial composition of the Russian market. Objectives. The study identifies scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian market. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The study emphasizes the importance of analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market. The Bank of Russia pursues a growth in the gross volume of loans granted by the financial system to individuals, enterprises, non-financial governmental institutions. It also tries to increment international reserves and less marketable, non-reserve assets. Depository corporations keep an eye on possible changes in requirements the bank system may set for governmental authorities of the Russian Federation, financial institutions of the Russian subjects and local authorities, governmental and other extra-budgetary funds. The study sets forth two appropriate scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian economy. I discovered that the clustering process depends in GDP at all key phases, such as production, distribution and use, and the Bank of Russia’s requirements to other financial and non-financial institutions in Rubles and foreign currency, and requirements of credit institutions to people. Basically, the macroprudential policy of the Bank of Russia shapes the financial composition of the Russian market. Conclusions and Relevance. The scenarios of the financial composition of the Russian market help the Russian government keep their activities in accordance with the Bank of Russia. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to ensure the economic growth.

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