To development drivers of the Russian economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 1881-1899
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Active Recovery ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the development of Russia's economy. Objectives. The study attempts to discover development drivers of the Russian economy, the substance of economic growth during the contemporary capitalist cycle. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical and cluster analysis. Results. Evaluating the median and he Fischer test of quarterly growth rates of economic and financial indicators and their clustering with federal budget, I discovered what distinguished the Russian economy from socialist China (the dynamics of growth in GDP and exports); from leading capitalist economies, such as Germany and the USA (a decrease in the unemployment rate). I determine what maintains Russia's activity during the globalization, that is, a growth in Consumer Price Index and the devaluation of the national currency. I discovered dampering signs of the Russian economy during crises and the active recovery of the global economy. Conclusions and Relevance. What will drive the development of the Russian economy mainly depends on its position in the global economy and the dampering role of capitalist cycles, considering the contradictory development of productive forces and economic relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and new competencies of public authorities to make administrative decisions on methods to advance the Russian economy.

Russia's position in the economic relations of the USA and China

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 1156-1178
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Direct Foreign Investment ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Usa ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
The U.S

Subject. The article discusses the international economic relations. Objectives. I determine Russia's position in the economic relations of the USA and China. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I discovered the persisting dominance of the USA over the world economy due to a growth in broad money supply, which makes it the leader in food exports, trade balance and industrial exports. The same reasons helps the USA constrain some material aspects of economic growth in Russia and China, such as inflation, direct foreign investment, ultimate consumption spending, real interest rate, the ratio of broad money supply to total reserves, total value of traded stocks, export of food, goods and services. Trends in SPX, SHCOMP, RTSI и DXY, USDRUB, USDCNY, USDBRO shows that China strives to reach the U.S. economic level given the stable exchange rate. Raising USDRUB, Russia approaches DXY. In case of low USDBRO, RTSI growth will be significantly curbed. Considering commodities within foreign trade between Russia, the USA and China, I should point out resource exports, while importing technology from the USA and equipment from China. Conclusions and Relevance. Studying Russia's position in the U.S.–Chinese economic relations, I found that the Russian government should revise foreign trade priorities to end the political and economic independence on the above relations. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government members for making complementary administrative decision on sources of foreign trade and seizing opportunities for encouraging it.

Analyzing the financial and economic conditions of Russia as a border between developing countries of Europe and Asia

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1228-1245
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Economic Role ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Capital Intensive ◽  
Existing Structure

Subject. The article considers the financial and economic status of Russia as compared to developing countries of Europe and Asia. Objectives. The aim is to determine the financial and economic role and opportunities for development of Russia as a border between the developing countries of Europe and Asia. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of descriptive statistics and cluster analysis. Results. The study identifies the GDP deflator as a common dominating indicator. It reflects the activity and instability of the price index. Developing countries have consistently low values relative to Russia, the Russian GDP deflator is the limit. Asia, having less capital-intensive economies, is more stable in terms of the growth rate of the relevant indicator. Russia is defined as a source of price index instability and a benchmark for developing countries of Europe and Asia. The main causes of instability are governance and GDP. Conclusions. The success of Russia's development as a border between the developing countries of Europe and Asia depends on the consistency between the limits of economic relations and the existing structure of the Russian economy.

A Russian approach to ensuring economic growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1234-1255
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Consumption Expenditures ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Public Consumption ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates a Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Objectives. The aim is to identify the basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth. Methods. The study rests on the systems approach, using the methods of statistical, neural network, and cluster analysis. Results. The paper defines the structural importance of exports of goods and services, and changes in inventories. It highlights significant links with public consumption expenditures. The Russian approach to ensuring economic growth comes down to devaluation of the national currencyб resulting from the loss of the real inflationary potential of economic growth to maintain the volume of exports of goods and services in the context of maintaining public consumption expenditures. The increase in M2 forces the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to increase its foreign exchange reserves. This has a restraining effect on the growth of Russian Ruble’s monetary exchange rate. This phenomenon causes a drop in the Russian federal loan bond (OFZ) index and a replacement of strategic priorities with tactical ones. Conclusions. The basis of the Russian approach to ensuring economic growth is a reflection of the limits of the Russian economy development and the effectiveness of the Government of the Russian Federation.

Transformation of global economic systems as a conseguence of the pandemic COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 4-14
Author(s):  
Nikolay Vladimirovich Novichkov ◽  
Ekaterina Andreevna Savchenko ◽  
Alexandra Vladimirovna Novichkova
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Systems Research ◽  
Very High

The article reveals the features of the transformation of global economic systems caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The nature, namely, transformational changes, the basic characteristic of which is the acquisition of new properties and manifestations, has been substantiated. Separately, attention is focused on the fact that transformational changes will be of a long-term nature, which will be observed even after overcoming the coronavirus pandemic. The relevance of this direction seems to be very high, since changes in the global economic world will be extremely signifi cant. The article also identifi es some areas of transformational changes (regionalism, new content of economic systems, their restructuring, the emergence of online solutions, etc.). Separately, the work analyzes the consequences of transformation in a number of signifi cant global economic systems: global fi nance, tourism, transport, entertainment industry, food markets, migration fl ows, etc. In addition, the need to search for new content in the functioning and development of international economic associations is indicated. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the directions and consequences of the transformation of global economic systems. The research tasks are reduced to substantiating the content of global economic systems; identifying areas of general transformational changes in the world economy; the designation of the directions and consequences of the transformation of certain global industries, markets, economic processes. Research subject: global economic relations. Research object: global economic systems. Research methods: systems approach, statistical method, modeling method. Research results. The main types of global economic systems are formulated; the directions of transformation of global economic systems are revealed; the global economic systems in which the transformational changes have occurred most clearly and signifi cantly; formulated possible contours of the functioning and development of global economic systems after the end of the coronavirus epidemic; directions that require special attention in the development of the global economy are proposed.

Social effectiveness of the market economy: measuring and management

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksei V. Bogoviz ◽  
Anna V. Shokhnekh ◽  
Elena S. Petrenko ◽  
Elizaveta A. Milkina
Keyword(s):  
Market Economy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Human Potential ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Effectiveness ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Cyclic Algorithm

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to develop the scientific and methodological provision for measuring and managing the social effectiveness of the market economy and its approbation.Design/methodology/approachWith foundation on the classical idea of effectiveness as a ratio of results to costs, and with acknowledgment of incompatibility and inequality of the elements of social effectiveness and the necessity of their ranking, the authors' formula for its evaluation is presented, and the methodology of its application is offered.FindingsIt is substantiated that the economic component of effectiveness of the market economy might have no connection with its social component, moreover, these two components could enter a vivid contradiction. This contradiction is especially vivid in countries with developed market economy. As the example of the USA shows despite the high global economy its market economy shows average statistical social effectiveness. While the experience of Russia shows that even with moderate global competitiveness of the market economy, it is possible to achieve its high social effectiveness. Advantages are achieved due to other social effects – active development of human potential and using the opportunities of the digital economy for social purposes. Social effectiveness of the Russian economy is assessed at 1.602.Originality/valueThe determined differences in the level of social effectiveness of developed and developing market economy predetermined the necessity for applying different measures to manage this effectiveness. A cyclic algorithm for managing the social effectiveness of developed and developing markets has been developed from the examples of the USA and Russia in 2019. It shows that perspectives of increasing the social effectiveness of certain market economies and leveling the disproportions of social effectiveness in the modern global economic system are connected to change of the measures of management with results and costs and for avoiding their mutual neutralization, the authors offer scientific and practical recommendations.

The analysis of the substance of economic growth in Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1737-1761
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Internal Resources ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Ministry Of Finance ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Subject. The article investigates the substance of Russia’s economic growth. Objectives. I determine what circumstances influence the substance of the economic growth in Russia. Methods. The study relies upon the systems approach, methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. It is important to analyze the substance of the economic growth in Russia. The Russian resources were found to be actively provided to other countries via capital and current transfers. Growth rates in the consolidated account gets less variable since the statistical variance was significantly adjusted with respect to capital translations, and product subsidies were limited, including products for State-owned enterprises, exports and imports. As a priority of the Russian economic economic growth, it focuses on the generation of income. I also discovered considerable links to the consolidated account. The Russian economy is oriented at the reallocation of available income among sectors so that savings and capital transfers could be made. Doing so, the country will subsequently acquire non-financial assets on the free-hold basis and interest in the production process. Internal resources of the sustainable economic growth were found to deplete under the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of Russia and Russia’s Ministry of Finance. Conclusions and Relevance. Shaping the substance of the economic growth in Russia, such circumstance demonstrate to governmental authorities that the goal of the socioeconomic development should be achieved with different methods. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government for purposes of economic growth.

The content analysis of Russian finance

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 585-610
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article focuses on the Russian finance. Objectives. I determine the basics and conditions needed for the Russian finance. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Having evaluated growth rates of prices for basic commodities and quotations of the Russian stocks, I determined what underlies the Russian finance as the prevailing trend in Rosneft’s stocks and Urals oil futures. Observing the movement of RTSI, IMOEX, S&P500, WTI oil future, USD/RUB rate, I discovered the gap between IMOEX and RTSI. RTSI remains with the WTI oil futures trend, while IMOEX joined the trend in S&P500. Having analyzed the importance of growth rates of global indices, I understood what is required for their maximum, i.e. the lowest growth rates of RTSI and the highest FTSE100. Considering the global indices and their growth rates, the Russian finance will be viable if RTSI indices are associated with DJIA and US Dollar Index. Structurally, the Russian economy cannot ensure the direct association of RTSI and DJIA. RTSI gets associated with DJIA through S&P500. US Dollar Index is a leading components in this correlation, as it determined the dynamics of USD/RUB and IMOEX. As for the trend in the rate of principal currencies, the basket with USD and CNY seems to be acceptable for the financial regulator. Conclusions and Relevance. The content analysis reveals the threatening intensification of adverse factors that make the Russian economy dependent on oil production, and outlines what can be done to eliminate them. The findings constitute new knowledge and advance the competence of the financial market regulator to make administrative decisions concerning the allocation, reallocation of the public product value and a part of national wealth so as to maintain the Russian finance in terms of form and substance.

Economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia's operations

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 1093-1115
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Legal Form ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Existing Structure

Subject. The article focuses on operations of the Central Bank’s of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The study is to determine economic boundaries of operations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. Analyzing the tomorrow-today dynamics of difference of the weighted average exchange rate RUB/USD and EUB/EUR and supply of USD and EUR, I discovered the supply of USD steadily exceeded the supply of RUB/EUR starting from 2018. Analyzing trends in growth rates of international reserves and money base (in its narrow sense), I found a growth in monetary growth starting from 2015 and currency reserves, cash in circulation (out of the Bank of Russia), statutory reserves of credit institutions in the Bank of Russia starting from 2017. Analyzing the importance of growth rates of market indicators, I identified its effective configuration referring to the dynamics of SP500. However, I point out stocks of Rostelecom, gold and RUB/USD. The article demonstrates the important ties between RTS index and stocks of Gazprom and Rostelecom, USD index ? RUB/USD, gold, SP500. Considering the existing structure of the Russian economy, the upper and base boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations are Repo rate and RUB/USD respectively. Conclusions and Relevance. The above economic boundaries of the Bank of Russia’s operations allow financial institutions to pursue an increase in the sustainability of the banking system, preserve the ownership structure, legal form and corporate governance, and use derivatives in order to decrease borrowings costs. The study contributes to the knowledge and competence of governmental officials so as to make administrative decisions on sources of growth in the Russian economy and respective opportunities.

Analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2050-2077
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Governmental Institutions ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
Bank System

Subject. The article studies the financial composition of the Russian market. Objectives. The study identifies scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian market. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and methods of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. The study emphasizes the importance of analyzing the financial composition of the Russian market. The Bank of Russia pursues a growth in the gross volume of loans granted by the financial system to individuals, enterprises, non-financial governmental institutions. It also tries to increment international reserves and less marketable, non-reserve assets. Depository corporations keep an eye on possible changes in requirements the bank system may set for governmental authorities of the Russian Federation, financial institutions of the Russian subjects and local authorities, governmental and other extra-budgetary funds. The study sets forth two appropriate scenarios for the financial composition of the Russian economy. I discovered that the clustering process depends in GDP at all key phases, such as production, distribution and use, and the Bank of Russia’s requirements to other financial and non-financial institutions in Rubles and foreign currency, and requirements of credit institutions to people. Basically, the macroprudential policy of the Bank of Russia shapes the financial composition of the Russian market. Conclusions and Relevance. The scenarios of the financial composition of the Russian market help the Russian government keep their activities in accordance with the Bank of Russia. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to ensure the economic growth.

The analysis of structural relations in the Russian economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1344-1366
Author(s):  
Valerii V. SMIRNOV
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
Constructive Development ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Structural Relations ◽  
And Cluster Analysis

Subject. The article investigates structural relations in Russia’s economy. Objectives. I delve into the basis for structural relations in Russia’s economy. Methods. The study is based on the systems approach and the method of statistical, neural network and cluster analysis. Results. I spotlight the establishment of optimal structural relations in the Russian economy. The article presents a set of material properties of the Russian economy, which hamper the emergence of optimal structural relations, sustainable growth and constructive development in the modern circumstances. What underlies structural relations in Russia is that its growth can be fed with domestic borrowings and paid services for the public, retail turnover, which depend on salaries and investment in capital stock, while changes in the foreign exchange rate are pegged to the turnover of foreign trade and deficit (surplus) of the consolidated budget. Conclusions and Relevance. Maintained with domestic borrowings and variation of the foreign exchange rate, economic growth, as the basis for structural relations in the Russian economy, is a sufficient indicator to evaluate the performance of the Russian government. The findings contribute to the knowledge and competence of the Russian government to set up consistent goals for creating optimal structural relations in the Russian economy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document