The sustainable development of agriculture is important for China, where more than 20 percent of the world population live. Many factors affect the sustainable development of agriculture in China. The purpose of this paper is to find out what factors play influential roles on affecting the growth pattern. Based on a modified production function model built upon Slow (1956) and Romer (2001), the impact of growth drag on the agricultural economy, and the contribution resources, are evaluated empirically using a time-series regression analysis based on the case of China for the period 1978–2015. The estimated coefficient of the total agricultural growth drag in China is 1.32, which suggests that the annual agricultural growth is associated with a 1.32 percent decline due to the scarcities of land, water, and energy. Specifically, the growth drags from land, water, and energy are found to be 0.5 percent, 0.44 percent, and 0.38 percent, respectively. Additionally, the results suggest that capital is the most important factor in the agricultural sector, although agriculture is highly dependent on land. Capital contributes around 76.86 percent to the growth of the agricultural economy, whereas contributions from land, energy, water, and technological progress are relatively small. Therefore, more investment should be added to agriculture, to accelerate the technology progress. Furthermore, the saving of water and energy is also important for the sustainable development of agriculture.
Impact Assessment of Growth Drag and Its Contribution Factors: Evidence from China’s Agricultural Economy
